domain:npr.org
Dean
14m ago
Haven't all the easily-deployed-by-third-parties nuclear weapons been decommissioned?
All nuclear weapons, once obtained, are easily deployed by third parties.
A nuclear weapon is basically the payload (the bomb) and the delivery system (the missile), but the bomb itself is very easily deployable by third parties. For example, a B61 nuclear bomb, the primary gravity nuclear bomb maintained for NATO purposes, is less than 12 feet long and (~3.53 m) long, and weighs only 700 pounds (320 kg). This could easily fit inside a basic cargo truck or shipping container, especially if you cut off the unnecessary parts of the casing.
First-generation nuclear weapons (like the WW2 era weapons) were bulkier, but even the Little Boy used in Hiroshima was 'only' 9,700 lbs. That's not even a capacity cargo container track.
In short, if you can get the bomb, and get the bomb to a shipping container, you can deploy a nuclear weapon. If you can then get that shipping container contents onto a ship (or even just a boat), you can deploy it to any major port in the world.
There aren't backpack nukes with 4 digit arming codes written on the side in crayon any more.
You don't need the default arming codes to make use of a nuclear weapon. The idea that nuclear weapons become innert without the right code is basically Holywood and security theater.
All an arming code for a nuclear is, is the software password to use the pre-installed software. However, the nuclear weapon is fundamentally an analog device of 'conventional explosive to move catalyst to trigger nuclear chain reaction', and the software doesn't actually do anything past the triggering the conventional explosive point. (Rather, the software is about when the conventional explosive triggers, often by being tied to sensors for airmovement and altitidue that a ground-based device doesn't care about.) The bomb goes boom when the internal trigger explosion is triggered, regardless of what software is used or if any software is used. The 'you need the right password or the bomb goes innert' is really just the conventional-explosive trigger-control software borking itself and needing to be replaced. The bomb itself is still 'fine', the UI panel just isn't working.
Non-state actors, or even state actors who steal another side's bomb, just need to replace the software control system for the initial trigger, and controlled demolitions are an extremely basic technology in the civil engineering sector around the world. There are bomb designs where a jurry-rig trigger software may be less efficient- such as an implosion device that's not quite synchronous- but this isn't 'you don't get an explosion,' but rather 'the explosion is smaller than it could have been, but is still a nuclear explosion.' And land-based devices were always going to be smaller just due to being based on the land rather than airburst.
In short, all the arming code system really means for a loose nuke is that there's a period of time between when a deployable nuke is captured, and when it can be armed and trigger via replacement software. That could be days or weeks... but depending on how the nuke is obtained, it could be days or weeks before the state knows to start looking, or where, by which point a shipping container can possibly be on another continent.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
41m ago
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
44m ago
They don't have enough nukes. And if they nuke Cairo or Mecca, they will lose the last of their remaining goodwill.
BaronVSS
Sort by controversial
47m ago
Upvotes/downvotes are a rough numeric metric of how high status someone is in a given online community, which is the closest thing to "vibes" people experience in a real life community. From that perspective it is perfectly reasonable to care about your arbitrary internet points.
RenOS
Dadder than dad
1hr ago
AFAIK contemporary research has trouble actually showing advantages for the worst students, while there seem to be moderate negative effects for the best students. I have the impression that in a "strong" society, you can improve some of the worst performing groups by giving them help and good examples to follow while simultaneously harshly punishing, up to kicking out, troublemakers. On the other hand, if the troublemakers are not punished, they can drag down everyone so much that it overwhelms any advantage of exemplary behaviour or help from better students. But in the current climate this is not really investigable, so the research base is pretty bad, and the researchers are also far too biased to be trustworthy. There is also the "issue" that the current level of segregation isn't actually hard to overcome for a competent immigrant parent (in fact, highly educated immigrants basically end up in good schools by default without any effort, at least here), so the number of students that would improve in a better school is pretty low. Even low-education high-conscientiousness immigrants will leave bad schools quite fast.
Once upon a time, I'm sure faraway and more isolationist America seemed vastly less threatening to Europeans than the near enemies. In fact, this is exactly what American hegemony in Europe still depends on.
Once upon a time, America had never jumped into the sorts of ill-fated intervention to reshape the Middle East one might expect of other powers.
I don't understand why people act like China's historical inability to harm Europe or best it at the colonial game is some immutable part of its character. How did that go with Japan?
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
1hr ago
I was responding to both of you - I wanted to explicitly agree with you that Labour's coalition makes them likely to get housing right.
FaibleEstimeDeSoi
1hr ago
Yeah it's true and I'm writing this from one of those recently built single-family houses. But I think this development isn't major enough, will be limited because of the lack of infrastructure and can be stopped by various government policies. Like mandating different flat plans and sizes, reinvigorating public transit in smaller cities and making personal houses even more expensive tax wise. I'm not necessarily advocating for this, but that and many other things can be done to keep people in cities(despite the growing uselessness of living close to work when everything can be done distantly).
Stellula
1hr ago
But anyways, enough about how human speech works.
That is not how human speech works.
Intelligence is complicated
Indeed. “Is this thing intelligent” is probably the question, maybe a question that will never be answered. The Christians would say that this is because machines do not have souls and I agree with them.
sun_the_second
1hr ago
Is there a reason why Israel can't nuke the Arab League faster than they prevent them from doing so?
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
1hr ago
I must respectfully disagree, given that he's my own brother and I do know him.
We used to hit the gym together back in the day, and I was far more serious about it to boot. If he was addicted to lifting for the sake of lifting, I'd have known by now, but no, mf genuinely only does it to make other people seethe with jealousy. Sure, he probably does get some satisfaction out of starting to build muscle, but it's not the driving motive given how much he bitches after leg day.
sohois
1hr ago
Labour will naturally benefit from external events. Unless China invades Taiwan, we'll probably see peace deals in Ukraine and Israel, inflation will slowly but surely return to normal, the economy will gradually rebound into 1-2% growth, and the strikes which have plagued a lot of the country will magically clear up.
A strong criticism of the way the Tory party governed over the past decade is that they spent a huge amount of time tinkering at the margins, constantly passing new laws over the most meaningless things, and never really made any big changes aside from a Brexit that was forced on them. I expect Labour will be quite similar
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
2hr ago
I doubt Israel's chances of survival will increase if they start lobbing nukes at Arab states. If anything, this might trigger a full-scale invasion of Israel by the whole Arab League to prevent them from detonating another one.
CertainlyWorse
Dedicated Pessimist
2hr ago
In my 20's I had my manager/mentor drag me to the gym after a particularly stressful week of projects/clients. He introduced me to weightlifting as he had a background in amateur sport for which it was a benefit. I've been lifting on and off (just bought a rack/barbell/bench for my home gym) and I love the mental and physical benefits. Like others I started doing it for the girls. Now I do it for me.
I was also introduced to running when I was 18 for work related reasons. I've kept up with that (on and off) even when a gym hasn't been available. I go through periods of no exercise and generally get fed up with lack of energy/brain fog/being overweight and then go on a health kick to get things under control.
From my point of view, its much easier to maintain fitness as a lifestyle (or at least something familiar that you can return to) when you are exposed to it while younger. Have you tried to introduce an adult to say.. swimming or bike riding if they've never been exposed to those activities? Watch their looks of incredulity at their suggestion. You might as well suggest belly dancing on a public stage.
Although if I was going to suggest something to someone who had never exercised, Hiking would probably be the gateway drug. Almost everyone can walk a fair distance and if you get them to do it in the sunshine there is the double whammy of Vitamin D exposure and endorphins. Combine that with being their 'exercise partner' to keep them accountable and you have a better chance of getting some traction.
oceanofsolaris
2hr ago
The handfull isn‘t that small (it’s roughly 5-10 years of progress in ML).
While that isn‘t a conclusive proof the trend will continue, it definitely does give some credence to it (I would give it maybe a 50% chance).
I think it’s a good idea to map out the future of „what if obvious trends continue for ten more years“, even if there is always a chance that things go worse or better.
oceanofsolaris
2hr ago
Who are some other of the many people you noticed?
I mean all kinds of people are on Dwarkesh‘s podcast, some certainly have achieved something (Zuckerberg) others maybe less (Aschenbrenner … though he has definitely done a lot with his so far fairly short adulthood).
But I am not sure I see a strong pattern here (unless your threshold for accomplishment is very high).
Polling today puts them just two points behind the Tories.
Right, polling done after the announcement of Farage's return. Prior to that, they were at ~10% and led by the hopeless Tice, who was sure to drag that figure down.
edit: just to underline this, a poll done mostly pre-Farage has them at 9% with the Lib Dems and Greens https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1798624495546302937?t=1SonhIjy1dbqjEdpE6BCng
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
2hr ago
One of the precise arguments for conscription locally is that the option is, indeed, "military as a job for the state". In Finnish that's referred to as "palkka-armeija" ("wage army"), with a strong undertone of a "mercenary army".
sohois
2hr ago
hydroacetylene probably has it right. Facing extinction, Sunak has circled the wagons around the one group that still reliably votes Tory - old people. Though few are old enough to actually have taken part, aged 60+ Britons still look back fondly on the original national service and it apparently polls well with them. Similarly, he's pushing the "quadruple lock", another boost to pensions. If Sunak can fortify the old vote enough, they reason, he will maybe claw 25% of the vote and maintain 100+ seats, which is the best they can hope for.
CertainlyWorse
Dedicated Pessimist
2hr ago
Finland is one of the few western countries that maintains a functional conscription system. That said, I would venture that they aren't multicultural in the way that the UK is and that national cohesion is probably higher due to less diversity.
Phrased another way, I don't think fresh immigrants are as willing to fight for the defense of a nation. It's 'military as a job for the state' vs 'defending the homeland'. This isn't a clear cut divide, because clearly most people (including legacy citizens) join the military for the paycheck, but I can't see many recent migrants hanging around if there was a Battle of Britain 2. On top of that, many UK immigrants come from backgrounds where the military is a low status, working class career.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
2hr ago
What about moderation bias? Are there groups of people that are much more likely to answer "strongly agree" or "strongly disagree" to any question vs answering "agree" or "disagree"? I find that the larger the scale, the more likely I am to navigate towards its center.
sohois
2hr ago
Well the pregnancy has already occurred so it's too late for any of that - at least I hope so. We'll be rolling the dice on our genetics, but we are both healthy, capable people
Singapore does this by having housing so unaffordable that ~80% of people live in government subsidized housing, then setting approximately-proportional-to-general-population racial quotas in every housing block. For example, if you're looking to sell your apartment, but your building ownership is already >80% Chinese, then you're limited to non-Chinese buyers.
Interestingly, they also have quotas on permanent residents, presumably to encourage integration with citizens.
It's called the "Ethnic Integration Policy" and it's an interesting approach that obviously achieves its desired metric. I don't know enough to say if it manages to achieve anything beyond that.
Probably politically infeasible in most other countries.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2hr ago
My (not extremely reliable) memory from my childhood is that teachers were highly regarded throughout early elementary school, though that respect was greatly diminished by the end of elementary school and nonexistent by middle school.
The primary problem that needs to be solved here is the power problem, not an intelligence problem. Of course, perhaps there will be an AlphaBattery program along the lines of AlphaFold that focuses on trying to come up with new battery designs, but my kinda-looking-in-from-the-outside view is that the battery folks don't really have a shortage of ideas for new designs; it's the empirical testing work (and things like not having the device explode) that is really the long pole in the tent.
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