domain:ussri.substack.com
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
1m ago
Fair point, good input.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
3m ago
They've already demonstrated bad faith by maliciously not enforcing the law in just the prior administration. We would need some kind of signal that they were serious about departing from this practice, or any statutory promises about future enforcement are worthless.
lagrangian
5m ago
not with Catholic women. I think the issue is my heterodoxy.
Sounds right to me. Either don't bring it up until date two/three, or pick different women (, or find Jesus).
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
9m ago
Edited my comment to be more clear.
This was ~30 mins around midnight after the voting stations closed and after every major news organization had called the election against him.
Like the election was over, he had lost. His odds were <1% because every major newspaper had come out and said "we are calling it, Carney has won". But then the boys rallied and moved the needle for a bit.
Gillitrut
Reading from the golden book under bright red stars
13m ago
TIL that "convict a woman of a crime carrying a maximum sentence of life in prison" is a synonym of the word "ask."
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
14m ago
As so often, attack precedes defense.
I actually think drones have been a bigger win for Ukraine than Russia.
The longer a Russian attack takes and the further into Ukrainian lines they get, more and more drones get vectored onto their attacking troops. And it's hard to suppress them, so every Russian attack inevitably gets bogged down. They cannot for the life of them generate a breakthrough.
Otherwise, spot on analysis.
HughCaulk
17m ago
Great beginning to the post. I agree that with decaying pro-social institutions in the west there is a massive movement towards dropping out, and not working hard to maintain the status-quo of society. The economy seems rigged against specific demographics and jobs specifically (while making others on ez mode like software devs and crypto entrepreneurs).
Huge quibble with the post: all the blackpill “women won’t fuck me” crying is total bullshit. Women are easier at the moment than they’ve ever been. Women literally medically augment themselves (with birth control) so that sex has no consequence, and many modern liberals treat it as lightly as scratching an itch.
If you feel this way, this is a YOU problem, plain and simple. I know so many >30 yr old halfway balding dudes with desk jobs who are banging new girls every week. Even better, it’s a skill that can be learned, not just something innate that you’re born with.
How often do you work out? Are you in respectable shape? Do you live in a populated area? Can you hold a normal conversation? How many girls do you approach, or even just talk to in real life per week?
I absolutely hate this mentality. It’s communism for pussy. Blackpill turbo-online men want to be able to do nothing, not work on themselves at all, and be guaranteed sex and a mate. Sounds like some Marxist who barely tries at their dead end wage slave job and is complaining about the wealth gap and wants gibs and wealth redistribution.
Stop whining and start working on yourself. You’ll thank me later. I know some people get off on self-pity, but chances you’ll get off on pussy 10x more if you give it a shot.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
18m ago
At one point, Pierre Poilievre's odds of winning went from <1% to 5% for ~30 mins after every major news organization had called the election against him
Was that before or after the tariff spat? There was a point where it seemed like Poilievre had the election in the bag, and it would be weird for his chances to be so low.
Also, even if it was afterwards, it's not necessarily as stupid as you make it out to be. Polls are used to shape opinion as much as they're used to measure it. There's a reason why parties do internal polling.
According to Polymarket Eric Adams has a slim but present chance of holding his seat.
While in general I think betting markets are a useful(ish) signal. They are ludicrously irrational when it comes to political odds.
I am not a gambler by nature, so I haven't dabbled, but both the Trump v Kamala and the recent Canadian Election had essentially free money bets available during the election hysteria.
At one point very briefly, Pierre Poilievre's odds of winning went from <1% to 5% for ~30 mins around midnight after the voting stations closed and after every major news organization had called the election against him. The reason? "Poilievre bros" were "rallying" and "holding the line against the lib-tards". They were literally throwing money away, I regretted not having an account in that moment.
TitaniumButterfly
25m ago
It’s the woman who is inconvenienced by having another person strapped to her circulatory system, so she has an excuse to get away with murder.
You mean after she (in 99.5% of cases) voluntarily did the one specific thing that creates people?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
25m ago
So does something like half of MAGA, which makes it kind of awkward for this entire argument.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
28m ago
Truthfully, that was kind of a rhetorical question because I believe in and fully agree with everything you just said.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
34m ago
That's not a very Elite Human Capital take. Suffice to say, Europe is not America, and if you try transferring American cultural mores there (which is exactly what this policy is), you're might have a bad time (though it's also not guaranteed).
Skibboleth
It's never 4D Chess
38m ago
I truly don't understand how everyone hates immigrants and not also the traitorous Americans who enable them??
The business gentry is the heart of the GOP and has zero interest in immigration enforcement via cracking down on employers. Enough politicians are uninterested in dealing with political fallout from the economic shock of rapidly expelling ten million workers. The average nativist voter doesn't think about this that hard.
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
45m ago
Many blue states have passed laws making abortions legal at any point in pregnancy. I see no evidence of any backlash to that.
Hadad
55m ago
I agree, it'd be great if they didn't. Unfortunately, we've had multiple administrations fill the nation with illegals, who contribute to the electoral power of the very administrations that do this, and they then dodge (with help) the legal means of deporting them.
It'd be lovely if I could make Democrats stop, but I can't. So instead, I'm going for the fixes that are actually possible.
BreakerofHorsesandMen
59m ago
Very good post. May we all return to a state where we understand that rights best go to the strong, that is, freedom of speech is best utilized and most valuable when used by those who would speak their mind anyways.
Also, this is partially a roundabout way of saying, glad to see you back, hope your break went well!
Tree
59m ago
There is and stubbornly remains some class of people who think the solution to the problem is to intend to one-box, but then to become a two-boxer after Omega has made its prediction.
I do think that strat works for Kavka's toxin puzzle, though. I don’t know about other people, but I am entirely capable of entertaining a single, limited, stupid thought for a moment, without simultaneously considering higher-level contradicting thoughts.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
Or maybe administrations should not try to bind their successors by extralegal means, because the fact that it is difficult is a feature not a bug.
I don't agree that the Trump administration is engaged in unusual thuggishness, but whether they are or they aren't, they shouldn't.
PutAHelmetOn
Recovering Quokka
1hr ago
Assuming (for the sake of this question) that the end goal of this administration is to establish a type of authoritarianism where people are kidnapped and disappeared because of vocal opposition to the regime, what should be the response by the opposition that would want to prevent that?
Maybe this is just my biased right-wing brain thinking, but my answer is the 2nd amendment. Government needs the ability to do violence, but it needs the people's overwhelming force to keep it aligned.
Private individuals should arm themselves. Officially, the opposition should expand private militia. If the government doesn't allow this, then the authoritarianism has already been established.
Hadad
1hr ago
The harsh consequences are the terror, pain, and distress of the deportation process, ideally aggravated as much as possible by willful right-wing executives. This is what I referred to in my other post as the "psychic wound" -- make being an illegal in the US as traumatic as possible, and many of them will self-deport, while others, not yet in the US, will be scared of the danger and not come at all.
There is no meaningful way for the state to bind its descendants. Laws can be changed or ignored. Personnel will change. Short of a constitutional amendment -- which ain't happening, and even if it did, could theoretically happen again after that to undo it -- there is no way to stop the next admin from fucking everything you did up.
So solutions must be outside the usual bounds of law and state capacity. The solution is to create something that outlasts any one administration. Memories of horror and pain are one such option -- generational wounds, enduring long after Trump's out of office and the next Democrat is once again promising infinity immigration with no brakes and permanent amnesty.
FistfullOfCrows
1hr ago
Young Thug the 3rd esquire running from obnoxiously hated 5-0 in his latest hit STRAIGHT OUTA AZTLAN
Totalitarianit
1hr ago
It is a safe bet. My response to this is to double down on the optics. I'm mostly onboard with anything the Trump admin does between actually following through with their threats and doing a full scale crackdown all the way to them crafting a convincing illusion (for the uneducated) of mass deportations that drastically decreases illegal immigration and pressures current illegals to fly under the radar, but secretly allows a decent number of them to work because it brings us back to a happy medium from an economic standpoint. There are drawbacks no matter what though. A full crackdown that deports as many people as possible will have immediate negative effects on the economy, but would probably be worth it in the long run. On the other hand, a convincing illusion for illegals and MAGAs keeps border crossings low, maintains the economy in the short-term, but falls into the low scale effect you talk about and it doesn't really help us in the future.
Any scenario in this spectrum is preferable to whatever the Democratic party does with the "No human is illegal" optics they try to portray, which I find to be far more detrimental to our society.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
1hr ago
Good points. It's repeated a lot around here, but the post-WW2 global order does seem to have almost fully broken down at this point.
seems like a very short term view to have. maybe you can argue that a baby is currently as cognitively capable as a gorilla, but within a year or two there is no comparison, a toddler that babbles dwarfs the gorilla in this realm. do you / singer not take this into account?
does peter singer even believe in intrinsic rights? utilitarianism is not really a rights based philosophy. if singer can be summed up as "actions should be judged by their consequences in terms of maximizing the satisfaction of interests and minimizing suffering", its not immideatly clear why or how rights are needed except for expediency.
even the idea of an "intrinsic right" is somewhat of an oxymoron. a "right" is a human construct. how can a human construct be intrinsic?
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