domain:parrhesia.co
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
47m ago
I'd actually consider cutting down on coffee and seeing if that helps. Could be a caffeine crash.
sun_the_second
2hr ago
Why would you call God "good" if it's explicitly not the same thing as human good, and you explicitly cannot understand what God's version of it is? When a blind man hugs an elephant's leg, is he right to conclude that an elephant is like a cylinder, except perhaps not the same kind of cylinder that we know?
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
2hr ago
This article is a good top level summary. This post was unverified but the reasons seem to match other reporting that the most recent model is a massive sunk cost. The head and VP not only both resigned last month but also asked their names not to be put on the eventual release. “Most of the team” probably overstated sorry. I accidentally took out of context the still notable fact that 11 of 14 of the authors of a major paper on the fundamental AI research team at Meta have left since publication and formation in 2023. Either way, Meta is behind absolutely but everyone is slowing. IMO we need another theoretical leap, probably about implementing “memory”, to keep progress rolling.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
2hr ago
Not to forget being primed before that by loads of disease-related apocalyptic fiction (sure, that stuff generally doesn't show lockdowns as something that works, but there's still indications that they would work if you just locked down earlier and harder).
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
2hr ago
The closest comparison here is the influenza vaccine, and I don't recall anyone saying that the influenza vaccine makes you immune from influenza.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
2hr ago
I'm not sure why there are so many people insisting that we should have used a more inexact name for this disease just because it fits a certain naming scheme (or geopolitical interest).
2rafa
2hr ago
Not that the advice of a random internet stranger should mean anything, but I think you should take the camper trip with your dog.
OliveTapenade
2hr ago
What might have come of it if the man had been educated - or even brought up in a decent society?
This one?
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
3hr ago
I'm fortunate enough that nobody in my extended family outright died of COVID, but it put a family member in the ICU and others were severely sick. It absolutely wasn't a normal year by those standards.
A med student, who happens to be my brother's best friend and also my pupil, lost his dad to a fungal infection following an ICU admission after COVID. On a more extended basis, I certainly saw plenty of people die in the ICU I was responsible for during the worst of the pandemic.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3hr ago
I understand not remembering who specifically said it, but why are you acting like the idea is out there that you're literally unable to come up with a motive for it?
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
3hr ago
Flu is almost always symptomatically indistinguishable from COVID. Not very many people need to know or care about the exact taxonomy of a moderate respiratory infection, and frankly speaking, most don't doctors don't either. To the minor extent that treatment might differ, we'd mentally just keep that bit in mind. It would hardly be the worst name in the world.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
4hr ago
Maybe you're thinking of Biden? https://youtube.com/watch?v=ciwyYnwYFaQ?si=nEANKgR7xGw6h2Vk
FtttG
4hr ago
Certainly Sweden's excess death toll was lower than the European average, which seems like the most damning statistic for the efficacy of lockdowns.
FtttG
4hr ago
Civil war era US had a tenth of present day US population. Scott surely knows this.
He changed that paragraph from "deadliest" to "highest fatality" when several people in the comments pointed out that the civil war was still more lethal per capita.
jkf
5hr ago
reports that a vaccine "merely" health risks to the recipient by 90%
Unfortunately we don't even really have enough evidence to quantify conclusively what the 'severity' benefit really was -- the initial trials were underpowered for anything to do with severity/death, and of course were terminated once the companies got their approval. (in that the control arm got real shots)
So there's no RCT to quantify this benefit, and the population-level studies are hopelessly muddled by a mixture of hard to correct for demographic confounders and sheer politics/CW. Plus all the different strains -- it's hard to say for sure, but seems clear that Omicron was very not-severe as compared to earlier strains -- so when a person got Covid is probably even more important than his vaccination status, severity-wise.
Yup. Seems at least B movies with live actors are finished soon. Unless it's cheaper to film which I doubt except in the most minimalist arthouse cinema. The hope for the Screen Actor's Guild is many people miraculously form strong, lasting opinions to only pay to watch live action media. It hadn't occurred to me that this will cause the death of many entertainment celebrities. I didn't categorize them much of artists I suppose.
2D3D
6hr ago
no university has a department of data fabrication
Except they do? Soft sciences all suffer massively from replication crisis, but faked data is a huge problem that goes unchallenged and covered up till it could not be hidden anymore. Francesca Ginos work on behavioral science was totally fabricated and earlier attempts to highlight it were quashed till 9 years later. Roland Fryers work on black outcomes was quashed because he went against the orthodoxy of white supremacy being responsible. Hard sciences also suffer from dubious research overenthusiastically seeing shadows in slides.
I think its fair to see the prestige of academic research as a dead end if they don't stand the test of the real world. The endowments and sinecures lavished are rewards for satisfying the emotional wants future billionaires whose nostalgia overweights the contributive effect of their university years to their success. The actual practical knowledge of university is either relevant only to the arcana of the universities internal minutae or only temporarily substantive as the world is so dynamic. Spending eight years locked in your lab to dissect nanoparticle impregnation becomes irrelevant when corning glass comes up with 5 different product iterations in the meantime.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
I don’t care about annoying the CCP, I care about annoying the people that pushed lockdowns on me and mine.
And we have herd immunity now. Some of that might be vaccines but the clear selective pressure on the virus was to become a cold. Faster spread=more generations=it turns into omicron faster.
Fruck
Lacks all conviction
6hr ago
I'm not finding it either, even though I remember watching her say it, and mocking it with my friends so frequently I can remember the exact quote. And when I widened my search it got even better - apparently no US official ever said anything like that!
We are so fucked as a species.
No_one
6hr ago
If I'm not mistaken what they're showing off now -virtual environments training etc was showed off in China months before. Ofc people claim those demos were faked etc.
NVDA's share price might be a bit overvalued. Chinese will likely catch up within a few years. They've got all the TSMC people they need and everyone working on replicating EUV etc. And with US trying to ban foreign installs of Huawei Ascends, people now see that Huawei actually has a useful product..
Shirayuki
6hr ago
Interesting, thanks.
The current evidence seems to align with my preconceptions that absolutely nothing has happened so far for humans, although I wasn't aware of that dog trial which does seem promising. Perhaps it's true that AI will lead to further innovation in the space, but personally I'd at least like to see some immortal mice before I start hoping to overcome the human condition.
Really, really disappointed with that post of his.
-Civil war era US had a tenth of present day US population. Scott surely knows this.
-mostly old people died now so low QALY losses compared to say, Spanish flu.
He knows all this, he's smart, we know this, yet he doesn't say it. Why?
I dislike how he brushes over 'lab leaks'.
Ironically, most of US lab leaker proponents are (probably) brushing over a the fact that covid was not made by the 'bat woman' Shi Zhengli in Wuhan, but was made in a US lab in Montana as part of a project to 'Defuse' bat coronaviruses in wild bat populations by circulating particular strains of viruses in them.
This is a complex set of claims which it'd take some serious effort to verify, but it does seem plausible and explains anomalies such as the disclosure of the genome by Shi in early '20 etc.
Anyway on the link there's an entire podcast episode that goes over it in detail.
astrolabia
6hr ago
the incentive to be truthful and honest is minimal.
Except to the extent we can avoid doom through correct perception and action.
It’s damning for the state enforced lockdowns which most other states were eager to implement. I think a lot of states used it as a compliance test *just how long can we get people to obey arbitrary rules and be shut in their homes without creating a backlash. Rather frightening to now understand that if you make the situation sound bad enough, you can get this sort of thing to go on for a long time. More than a year.
And other states were actually pretty upset that Sweden didn’t go along because it did provide an alternative to arresting people who dared to leave their homes.
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