domain:worksinprogress.co
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
5m ago
Off topic, but I kind of wonder how the racial estimate question might change if you gave people a slider that forces all the percentages to sum to 100
crushedoranges
6m ago
Obviously the market is distorted by access to illegal labor, as much as a market would be distorted if people were allowed to own slaves. There is no inconsistency here. People want to compete in the legal framework of their country, under the same laws. An army of scabs willing to work for less in shittier conditions (that would be illegal for any citizen) would depress the labor market.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
6m ago
We should make national policy decisions based on the projected wellbeing of citizens. That would include the psychological theories of Csikszentmihalyi, which shows that certain occupational activities are more conducive to happiness.
Historical precedent suggests that the same voters flip flop every four years.
This is a bit of a quibble, but actually it’s more like voters come in and out of participation, but the numbers usually balance out in such a way so as to appear that the same voters switch every time. Longitudinally, the number of individual voters who regularly change their mind is pretty low. But yes, elections are close, so they can still matter, but overall they aren’t the kingmaker. What IS true is that these movements in and out of participation are still downstream from persuasion, and tend to jive with mind-changers. So the general idea still holds.
In 2020 to 2024, for instance, although the chart doesn’t show candidate breakdowns, you can see Figure 43 from this report that about half of voters are consistent but the other half is made up of about 3 even-ish groups: new entrants, dropouts, and midterm-skippers.
When talking about Biden, this summarization basically says that 2024 Democrats had both a turnout and persuasion problem, but turnout alone wouldn’t have reversed the loss (so functionally it is still persuasion, which is exactly how you want the elections to work)
Sloot
12m ago
I once knew a woman who was sobbing because her boyfriend's family didn't like her- ok, reasonable enough, except the family in this case was his wife and teenaged daughter that she'd insisted on meeting.
:laughingcrying_emoji:
Classic coffee moment and common W for female mate choice copying.
But also, uh, they're looking for guys like their dads, who probably acted like that, because that's their model for how men are. She's probably never gotten to know an upstanding family man. She may not know they exist.
Alternate, but compatible/complementary hypothesis: Single, upstanding men are invisible to her, because they don’t give her the tingles.
Sounds like it could be a Norm McDonald joke: “Women love dating family-oriented men. Sometimes, some of these men aren’t even already married.”
You should invite her here to do one of those user viewpoint series.
quiet_NaN
13m ago
I think it really depends on how much pain it is to stockpile the goods in question.
For example, assume that when Trump announced his tariffs, market observers agreed that the price of Tamagotchis in the US would increase by 100%. Obviously, this would lead to people starting to hoard Tamagotchis, which in turn would cause the stores to increase the prices on their existing stockpiles, on which they had not paid any tariffs. When a few months later, the next container ship arrives, the prices will stay high even though supply might be far higher than demand, as the owners are just sitting on their supply and waiting for demand to materialize, knowing that more shipments of the goods will not be coming soon.
Now imagine the same situation for bananas. Even anticipating a price hike, customers will not buy their four-year supply of bananas while they are still affordable. While the banana-delivering ships which set sail in the pre-tariff era are still on the ocean, the supermarket price of bananas should mostly stay stable -- some importer is making a loss on them, but still not as much of a loss as if they left them to rot.
Of course, the banana importers will anticipate higher prices and thus lower demands and therefore order a lot less bananas. Unless they are mistaken about the shape of the demand curve, this will lead to a price hike roughly when the ships with the smaller orders come into port.
My estimate is that different factors affect how well you can stockpile a certain trade good. Food will rot. Any resource needs to be stored, many of them in a dry place. Fossil fuels have to be protected from going up in flames or escaping into the atmosphere or the ground, sometimes. Electronics become obsolete, eventually. Consumer taste and fashion changes, who knows if in two years anyone will still be interested in cheap Chinese "Alligator Alcatraz" merchandise.
hydroacetylene
14m ago
the U.S. is more linguistically, religiously, ethnically, and racially diverse than it has ever been.
I don't know about that. In the past there were entire states which mostly didn't speak English(Lousiana and New Mexico have both had governments that did not operate in English).
hydroacetylene
18m ago
No, Marines have their own special forces and the fallback for that is usually 'normal getting shot at' jobs like machine gunner and infantry grunt. IIRC the most usual path into force recon is to try to transfer from normal light infantry anyways.
hydroacetylene
21m ago
Alcoholism forces the lowest social classes to hold a job and then die when they get to be too old to work anymore, which is broadly what society wants from them. Alcohol is an important social lubricant in not-rigorously structured societies like the west.
hydroacetylene
23m ago
I have a theory that college girls sometimes get nose rings to say 'I'm old enough now' when they're not otherwise clearly distinguished from teenagers.
zeke5123a
25m ago
In moderation, alcohol can create social cohesion. The moderation is the key bit.
hydroacetylene
25m ago
The QoL of agricultural grunt workers has, in every society in history, been pretty bad. Yes, you can entice some college kids to do a bit of it over the summer for unlimited booze and sex, but I am very skeptical they'll do enough of it to replace migrants. 'Picking crops' is just a job that always inherently sucks.
The cost advantage of illegals is also not the only reason that illegals are preferred by lower blue collar employers; I don't know if you've met native white and black trash but they're both just awful. Drugs, dysfunctional relationships, poor communication and attendance, legal issues, poor conflict-management, unreliability, theft and dishonesty, laziness, etc are way worse among our native underclass- and illegals are themselves not necessarily role models with that stuff. Lots of them are essentially unemployable because that's who's left over in a society like the US where huge majorities of functional and capable people 'make it' out of having to do shitty unskilled labor for a living.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
33m ago
It would be, but to try out for the SEALs you've already enlisted in the Navy so that's pretty much the way it goes for many people who turn out to be only 99th percentile athletes rather that 99.9th percentile.
hydroacetylene
35m ago
As I keep saying, the conditions required to 'keep farms running so we can stock the shelves with a variety of produce' are not great, and first worlders will not do it without compulsion(or, I suppose, being deluded into halfway doing this for brief periods of time on partyfarms). Likewise lots of heavy construction labor etc.
Americans should mow their own lawns, watch their own children, etc. But the idea that we can replace illegal migrants and roustabouts with middle class whites is farcical. Manual laborers are by definition not middle class, at least when they're doing temporary grunt work.
No_one
36m ago
At this point tattoos signal nothing more than conformity or body dysmorphia.
Piercings are more serious, I'm not sure what they say except for 'lower social class' or maybe body dysmorphia.
No_one
38m ago
fine, but then why did every other Western nation that was looking to change calibers and was capable of indigenous weapons development also reject the idea
They were largely not sovereign nations and forced to do so by Americans due to NATO. I'm sure that e.g. had the Germans been left to their own devices they'd have kept making Stg.44s post war as the rifle's superiority was recognized during the war.
And honestly, no, the other ones don't really matter.
Sure, buddy. Sure. A communist Malaysia is okay, sitting straight on an important trade route and providing oil.
no other military would adopt a smaller cartridge until 5.56 NATO).
Japanese adopted 6.5mm in 1897.
quiet_NaN
39m ago
I do not know much about international trading contracts either, but I assume that most Chinese companies would not guarantee delivery to your porch at a fixed price. I would guess that in most cases, it is the importer who will have to cough up the unexpected tariffs.
hydroacetylene
40m ago
Middle class whites should not plan on doing crappy grunt work for a living. A certain amount of unfair labor practices is necessary to keep a society running and as far as I'm concerned a few Oaxacans and Hondurans are a win-win way to get that done. We don't need to import millions of welfare cases and deliveroo drivers but turning a blind eye to some construction and agriculture workers of questionable legality is better for everyone.
The underclass already lives a very similar lifestyle, just more degenerate. It would be great if they could be forced to do more work and less drugs, I just have little faith in their ability to do so(we're several generations past the point at which people who are willing to do work instead of drugs stop being poor in this country).
White non-underclass youths that want to make something of themselves usually do; they go from digging ditches for a plumber to assisting the plumber laying pipe to being a plumber themselves. I don't see the problem unless it's with 'there are Hispanics in the vicinity'.
No_one
43m ago
Are you really going to try and insist that not even 10 of their rightwing equivalents would cross the line at a lie?
a) Firstly, most people wouldn't think nobody would break b) there's no guarantee anyone would even care about a false-flag attack (nobody cares about this one)
So no, I don't think you could find ten rightwingers willing to pull a false flag like this.
this would be missing the point, much like firing at full auto at the ranges of this incident.
Effective range of light machineguns fired from a prone position isn't <100 meters.
hydroacetylene
47m ago
No, this was his currently married wife. I don't know if she divorced him or not(I'm happier not being further involved in this woman's life), but the mistress insisted on meeting his family.
It did not go well and he broke up with her. This is the ending of the story as far as I know, and I'm pretty happy with that. I don't know if the wife knew about his cheating but was OK with it being discreet(these women exist), or if she was blindsided. But the mistress was clearly crazy.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
50m ago
Yeah, but a lot of these women grew up in shitty conditions of broken families, single mothers, drugs and petty crime in the environment. They should know better. They seem not to, and I can't figure it out.
It's the same effect as doctor and lawyer dynasties, but in reverse. If your mom is a single mom with serial deadbeat boyfriends, your aunt is a single mom with serial deadbeat boyfriends, you have to learn to look at people that are not like you and say, "I am going to learn how to be like them and not like everyone else around me". This is a high bar to clear.
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
52m ago
Huh, that’s interesting, I totally would have thought that the Marines would be the way more natural fallback but apparently not.
quiet_NaN
54m ago
Because they're not paying the tariffs.
The tariffs would be paid in the end substantially by the US customers in any case, if for no other reason than the manufacturers being unlikely to have the profit margin to just pay for them.
Also, tariff evasion should be an expected consequence of having tariffs. To be fair, I think for most of the goods imported from China, enforcement is plausible.
Catching one container with cocaine in a harbor which processes hundred thousands of them is hard. Catching a container whose goods are priced to low on the customs declaration is easy if a significant fractions of the containers are undervalued. You just need to set up financial incentives which make it expensive to get caught (perhaps set up requirement that any importer needs to own a defined amount of seize-able assets per container they want to bring through customs per day), and your customs officers will pay for themselves.
It was a fairly secretive operation. And there was a cover up.
Or do you deny there is evidence of the Nazis trying to cover something up at these camps?
Are there not certain reports of death counts? A famous telegram, I believe?
https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-riegner-telegram
This one is a rehash, but highlights your mistake: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/aug/01/secondworldwar.jamiewilson
What were they discussing at the Wannsee Conference anyway?
At least try to deal with the evidence I'm providing.
You don't have to convince me not to trust the Soviets by default.
You're ignoring his memoirs and remarks made long after the alleged torture session, which itself was reported in his memoir. If he were a compelled witness, this is a very strange way to go about it. It feels like you didn't even skim the resource I provided dealing with these concerns head on.
Well where did the millions of intact pre-war Eastern European Jews go? Are they not "just gone"?
Also, using ashes for fertilizer, dumping them in rivers, or any number of reported ways to hide them would seemingly explain this problem away quite easily.
So the evidence I submitted is simply fabricated? Not that it matters, in that the Mainstream acknowledges it wasn't used.
Does the fact the Mainstream can acknowledge that indicate, perhaps, it responds to evidence?
Interesting though, isn't it, that the buried tiles matched the accounts of eyewitness accounts? And, sure, it only looked like a Star of David, though it was merely the logo of a Polish ceramics factory. Seems like a pretty understandable mistake to me. If you think about it, the fact the excavation pulled out tiles that matched eyewitness accounts is a little too convenient, right? But BUT, as you pointed out, they actually got it wrong initially that it was a Star of David vs. the logo of a Polish ceramics factory. That's kind of exactly what one would expect from an authentic find.
Why did the Nazis destroy and bury the site if it had a routine purpose?
Do you accept Colls found mass graves and artifacts at Treblinka I?
Deflection. The analysis was based on aerial photography which Revisionists have to pretend was doctored.
There was COMINT that indicated the Final Solution was indeed "final" as previously indicated.
Well we can agree on that. One might conclude that perhaps it's not such an incredible outlier at all because it's not merely a figment of propaganda.
This is really funny, because I actually went and read a bit of one of your recommended books--Debating the Holocaust--and that fine author pointed out at the end that the likes of Churchill and Eisenhower barely even mentioned the Jews in their war memoirs (and Churchill was quite philosemetic his whole life). The moral justification for the war is just fine if you pretend the Jews were never part of the equation, since Hitler was the aggressor, and the Allies didn't prioritize anything based on Jewish suffering. We nuked the Japs and they didn't even have any Jews to conduct medical experiments on or extract labor from.
Let's pretend, for the sake of argument, there were no mass gassings. Do you accept:
No wonder people believe the Holocaust narrative so easily, right?
Was Hitler wrong about the Jews? Were the Nazis wrong to have focused on them so much? Were their utterances merely rhetoric? The ideology of no import when it came to action? But seriously though, how wrong was Hitler about the Jews? Was his rhetoric correct, but he failed to act on it? Just how big of a problem were the Jews, objectively? Like, were they just a minor problem, not a major one? Or what? (At least he was right about the commies.)
Are the Jews really so crafty that they convinced the Nazis to be the perfect evil villains years in advance of the Holocaust? Did they plant the documentation of the Wannsee Conference and Einsatzgruppen reports? The tattooed numbers are a nice touch, too.
Arguing, correctly in some (but definitely no all) cases, that the Holocaust is surrounded by less-than-perfect eyewitness accounts, unknowns, exaggerations, propaganda, and all manner of historical flaws does not remotely begin to overturn the core evidence and present a more plausible account of what evidence we have--since creating and maintaining a conspiracy to manufacture a Nazi conspiracy is even harder to prove, and for which you have provided no actual evidence. Even if you had significantly weakened the hypothesis of the conventional take on the Holocaust, you have neither overturned it nor provided a remotely plausible alternative that explains things better.
I think even you can recognize this is a pretty delusional take since the exact same people most up in arms about "Nazis" and "fascism" are also the most likely to be claiming that Jews are privileged White People, that Israelis are settler colonialists committing genocide, and that globalizing the intifada is a good thing to do. From the river to the sea.
Furthermore, the Allies did very little to prevent or mitigate the Holocaust, even rejecting many refugees. The American "global empire" left Israel basically to its own devices for the first few decades of its existence, when it faced overwhelmingly numerically superior foes in several wars. (Good thing Arabs are bad at war.) One might imagine we have wanted to compensate for that guilt a bit as time went on.
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