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Notes -
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/white-house-admiral-approved-second-strike-boat-venezuela-was-well-within-legal-2025-12-01/
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/some-us-republicans-want-answers-venezuela-strikes-despite-trump-2025-12-01/
Aaand (after previously denying it?) the White House confirms that a second strike killed survivors of an initial strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat. (Hegseth is joking about it) It even seems the purpose of the second strike was solely to leave no survivors.
Curious that the targeted smuggling boats have large crews, rather than conserving space and weight capacity for drugs...
Anyone have a read on whether or not there are still "Trump is the anti-war President" true believers and, if so, how those people are trying to square the circle?
The stupider this becomes, the more likely it seems that this conflict is a result of Trump's fixation with spoils of war and that he actually thinks we can literally just "take the oil."
Someone online pointed out that 18.3.2.1 of the Department of Defense Law of War Manual reads:
That second strike, if it happened, is literally in the manual as an example of an illegal order that would be a violation of the laws of war. I am as-yet unclear on how involved Trump or Hegseth were in this operation but it sounds like, minimally, everyone in the chain of command between Admiral Frank Bradley and whomever actually executed the strike is, at least, a war criminal.
Well, if that's true, screw that manual and screw your laws of war. You don't let the enemy survive after you've drone striked them once. You finish the job. Nothing in the calculus changes that led you to issuing that strike just because you didn't do a perfect job the first strike.
I agree, this seems to me a perplexing point to focus on. For instance the US used delay-action bombs specifically to target rescuers and firefighters trying to put out fire in burning cities during WW2 and beyond - some of those bombs are active to this day in Germany. As of now you can go and watch similar tactics being used in Ukraine war, where you have literal videos of drones bombing wounded, kneeling and praying soldiers, you have videos of double-tapping tanks and APCs including soldiers seeking refuge under such vehicles and more.
Double-tap operations were famous under Obama, where drone strikes targeted either rescue operations or even funerals of terrorists. But maybe this is the critique? Arguably Hegsegh is stupid and he should have done Obama style duble-tap operation, where the military waits for rescue vessel picking up the drowning terrorists only to bomb them again or maybe bomb attendees at their funeral or hospital visitors? The famous sniper tactics of purposefully only wounding the target and letting him alive as bait to kill medics and other valuable targets of opportunity.
I'm pretty sure no one was coming to pick up the drowning drug dealers.
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...other than the fact that they are no longer a threat to you.
Are they more or less of a threat to me than a terror suspect attending a wedding in some Afghan village?
Less, given that they are hors de combat, while the terrorist in the Afghan village is still capable of perpetrating armed acts against you.
Which "combat"? There's no "combat" between a narco-boat in the middle of the sea and a drone flying a mile overhead. If anything, the "combat" began is when the drone operator identified the target, and it ends when the target is destroyed. Saying it in a fancy way doesn't change anything.
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The terrorist in the Afghan village is not engaged in combat at all. He is not engaged in terrorist activities by attending a wedding, there is no reasonable standard by which his immediate actions constitute combat. Yet we bomb him and those around him anyway. If this is acceptable, which it evidently has been for decades now, then it must be because his allegiance is sufficient to justify striking him, regardless of his present actions. And if that be the case, how does similar logic not apply to narcos in boats?
By what moral logic is it acceptable to bomb a crowded wedding to kill one of the guests, but bombing narcos engaged in smuggling becomes a serious crime only when the second bomb drops? What do you suppose the first one was for?
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My understanding is that it's actually more complicated, even if there was a strike purposefully for the purpose of killing two shipwrecked hostile non-state actors.
The quote you reference has a citation referring to a specific event where a military stopped and questioned lifeboats fleeing a sunk hospital ship.
The citation should not taken to indicate that shooting everyone who's ever been shipwrecked is always illegal. For example, in the specific case referenced in the Manual, if the lifeboats had combatants or munitions it would have been acceptable to kill them. The Manual is giving a specific example of a time when soldiers were found to have committed an illegal act.
That said, I think it is more likely given the facts known now that no such order was given, and instead the order was to destroy the boat after the first strike did not do sufficient damage for mission parameters. The deaths of the narcoterrorists was incidental.
In addition I think there is currently a strong attempt by the Democrats to force meme 'don't obey unlawful orders (read: any orders given by the administration)' into the zeitgeist. Apparently, the FBI have opened an investigation into the video made by military and intelligence officials, presumably to see if it reaches the benchmark of 'sedition'.
What update am I to make from that? If Trump tweeted that Harris was BBQing babies, I am sure his lapdogs at the FBI would dutifully waste taxpayer money to investigate her for child murder and cannibalism, not release a press statement "this is absurd, we are not looking into that."
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It depends very specifically on the exact orders, to far greater detail than available from current reporting even if you trust it. From 7.3.3.1 of the same document:
I mean, the Post's reporting is that the order was to kill everybody. That doesn't sound like the killing of the two initial survivors was incidental. That may turn out to be wrong, of course, but if it's accurate I am pretty confident saying it's a war crime.
The Post's reporting is that an unnamed source claims the order was to kill everybody. If we're going to nitpick, do it right.
On one hand, Hegseth was picked because he looks like a made for TV movie secdef, not for competence. On the other I trust the average journalist less far than I could throw them. I find it believable that he said something that stupid but I'm not going out of my way to trust unnamed sources in a biased context, either.
You're misreading the situation on that one. Hegseth is still too young and pretty to have the look Trump would prefer for SecDef.
Hegseth was picked because he had publicly beefed with the Generals about how the military should be run. Some of their behaviour in Trump's first term was frankly illegal, eg lying to Trump about troop counts in Syria. Trump needed someone who knew enough about the military and was willing to be adversarial.
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Was the order to kill everyone issued after the first strike, or before it? Was the order to initiate the second strike to kill survivors, to destroy remaining parts of the boat, or to prevent recovery of drugs? Were the survivors showing clear signs of surrender such that they could be easily captured without any risk or serious cost to other military goals, or were they trying to coordinate over radio for a pickup by their compatriots? These things all matter, and as far as I can tell, none of them are even considered in the original Post reporting so far.
I don't know what the situation is. I don't trust The New York Times any further than I trust WashPo, and I don't trust any politicians further than I could throw their house, and somehow admin members speaking anonymously managed to be even less trustworthy.
And I'm very far from an expert on the laws of combat. But I notice the certainty of others, and how little they argue for how they know what they 'know'.
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Interesting that the citation for that section is not to an actual law, but to a post-WWI German War Crimes trial of two U-boat gunners.
Is the DOD Law of War Manual itself a law? Does it get to issue binding commentary? Is something illegal just because the manual says it is?
Legally binding documents:
International Criminal Court Elements of Crimes art. 8 (2) (a) (i):
Second Geneva Convention of 1949 art. 12:
To apply, wouldn't the crews need to belong to "Members of crews, including masters, pilots and apprentices of the merchant marine ... of the Parties to the conflict..." (literally "the following Article")? Are these boats Venezuelan-flagged vessels? I strongly suspect they're not because that would have raised a whole bunch of other arguments (literally acts of war) that haven't been brought up.
They're not flagged. Since the treaties comprising the laws of the sea were written by people representing nations, who had very little regard for stateless entities and none of it good (considering them brigands, pirates, or worse, libertarians), there's really no or almost no protection for them in those treaties.
Nobody likes non-flagged libertarians.
There are a couple of relevant conventions about stateless persons, but those seem to mostly boil down to "don't make people stateless" and even those aren't universally accepted. But Western nations are more prone to letting them live indefinitely in airports than issuing death warrants for private persons. Boats, on the other hand, don't even get that protection.
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The us is not a party to the ICC and the ICC is a joke.
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Terrorists are not covered by Geneva conventions.
And even if people want to argue over the definition of terrorist, "non-uniformed combatants" in general are not covered by the Geneva Conventions (or most of the laws of war in general). Non-uniformed combatants are generally punished when found via... summary execution. Whether or not alleged drug dealers allegedly bringing drugs to the US (allegedly on behalf of the Venezuelan government) count as non-uniformed combatants is a whole different question though.
And one with a well-known answer. Merchant seamen are civilians, even if they are transporting contraband. Hence the theory that the drugs and not the people were the legally relevant target - if the drug war was a real war, the drugs would be a legitimate military target and the sailors would be acceptable collateral damage but not a military target in their own right.
Which is probably part of why the US is claiming they are military irregulars operating under the command of the Venezuelan government: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8j4ye5x0mo
Whether or not that claim is true is, again, an entirely different matter. But if they are then they are both non-uniformed and operating flagless vessels in international waters, which means the amount of protection they have against pretty much any action another state chooses to take is effectively zero.
There is no requirement for merchant seamen to wear uniforms, or for merchant ships to fly their flags in international waters (unless asked to by a warship of any nationality). For the crews of the drug boats to be unlawful combatants, they have to be fighting out of uniform. Otherwise "they are members of TdA and therefore Venezuelan irregulars" (which I agree is probably the Trump admin's position) would make them combatants currently not fighting - which means the people (but not the boat) would be valid military targets, but subject to GC protections (including against continued attack after being shipwrecked)*
The legal position that makes the boat a military target is that the drug war is a real war which triggers Article 2 war powers and the international law of armed conflict, and that shipping drugs is a belligerent act. And indeed that shipping drugs from Venezuela to Trinidad is a belligerent act against the United States based on the ultimate destination of the drugs. The only people who have historically taken that position as regards shipments of weapons were supporters of unrestricted submarine warfare in WW1 and WW2.
* The distinction the Geneva Conventions make between combatants not currently fighting and combatants rendered hors-de-combat (sick, wounded, surrendered, shipwrecked), while clear as a matter of the current international law in force, doesn't quite make sense in the context of off-battlefield drone strikes. The fact that you can legally (subject to normal considerations about proportionality of collateral damage) drone-kill an off-duty enemy soldier in his bed at home, but not in his hospital bed, doesn't really serve a logical purpose. The fact that you can legally drone-sink a civilian boat (again subject to proportionality) in order to kill the off-duty enemy combatant passengers, but not finish them off once they are in the water, is producing mildly absurd results in the instant case.
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Second Geneva Convention of 1949 art. 3:
Commentary ¶ 489 (applying to the first-quoted paragraph):
Commentary ¶¶ 893–896 (applying to the last-quoted paragraph):
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I don't think the ICC rules apply to the United States. (Isn't there an literal statute repudiating them?)
The Geneva Convention is your best bet, but it's pretty vague. I don't think anyone actually wants our armed forces interpreting it literally (okay, some people want that, but I'd wager most people don't, especially not if we were in a real war with enemies who shoot back.)
I never put much stock in the, "we would never follow illegal orders," shtick in the first place. If the military wants to do something in wartime, they'll do it.
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I will caveat that the Second Geneva Convention only applies between contracting parties by its own terms, so unless Venezuela wanted to do the funniest thing, it's not clear how binding it would be here. But the United States tends to flip back and forth about whether it wants to apply the same rules regardless, and it'd probably be a good idea.
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