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Apparently Trump is seeking a 10% cut in non-defense spending and a $500 billion increase in defense spending.
These numbers are so high that I feel like this is probably some kind of bluster or a gambit to get a smaller increase by asking for a larger one.
This would raise US defense spending as a fraction of GDP to the same level as the height of the War on Terror, except with no 9/11 to motivate political will to support the increase.
A 10% cut in non-defense spending would hurt many people, including many Trump supporters, especially given that the DOGE experiment was cancelled and so one cannot expect much efficiency increase to offset the cuts.
A $500 billion defense increase makes no sense except if the US is increasing preparations to engage in a war with China. No other potential adversary even comes close to justifying such an increase. But China is not currently threatening any vital US interests other than Taiwan, and defense of Taiwan could be increased to effective levels without $500 extra billion. It is, after all, an island with rugged terrain, 24 million people, and its own military.
If a war does happen, it carries enormous risks one way or another, even with the extra budget. If a war does not happen, it is money largely wasted in that it could be spent better instead.
It would also be a huge experiment to add on top of the already ongoing tariff project, with difficult-to-predict consequences to the economy. The consequences might be hard to predict, but I feel like it's safe to say that the money could be spent in more productive ways.
The political fallout of actually getting these changes implemented, which seems like an extreme long shot, would drive everyone other than hardcore MAGA "I love the troops" types away and people who directly benefit from defense spending away from the Republican coalition and would give non-Republicans a huge amount of fodder for campaign material.
Even the fallout of just trying to get the changes implemented is bad. It is coming not long before the midterms and it is also a ready-made gift to Newsom or whoever else runs in 2028.
What is Trump doing with this?
"Currently" is doing some heavy lifting there. Just to support the US's AUKUS obligation, to say nothing of reaching the Navy's target force structure, how long do you think it would take to build just the infrastructure, industrial base, and skills needed to scale up shipbuilding, let alone the ships themselves?
I'm not saying that's what Trump has in mind, but the state of US shipbuilding -- military, civilian, and Coast Guard -- is pretty shambolic, and a defense budget increase would make perfect sense in that context (and also the same thing but on a lesser scale for armament stockpiles).
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Why is the $500B being discussed as a news? Trump had announced his plans for a $1.5T military budget long ago, in early January iirc (was a bit hard to find).
To quote it in full (I've just been told "Don't pay any attention to anything on Truth Social ever and you'll probably have a clearer view of world events" but just this once):
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
Now Trump is not very numerate, so he presumably misunderstood how the tariff revenue changes the long-term balance, and he's seemingly still committed to at least not blowing up the debt further; so something had to give.
And yes, this is about China, and anyone else who might pose a challenge (as can be seen, even the decapitated Iran is something of a challenge). China has been steadily increasing their defense spend by 7% a year, for the last decade or more, and their 2026 target is ≈$277B, keeping it well under 2% of GDP. In 2027, accordingly, we may expect almost $300B. Given the differences in productivity, in fighting age male population, the level of corruption, and the share of US DoD (DoW) spend on veteran benefits and such, a 70% overmatch was too close for comfort.
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Trump is in a bad place.
It's 6 months before the mid-terms and polls imply a blue wave. In 2018, He had higher approval ratings, a thriving economy and no war....yet he got knocked down by a blue wave. With the way things are trending, it would take a great fumble for Dems to lose the house. Trump may also lose sufficient seats in Senate, so that 2028 could shape up to be a trifecta win for a Democrat.
Remember when Biden was making stupid decisions, and every Republican was (correctly) convinced he'd gone senile? That's the center-left on Trump right now. Occam's razor. Trump is losing a war. He's out of ideas. He is panicking. His incompetent and arguably America's all-time lowest IQ cabinet does not help. Rubio and JD are smart, but they can't salvage this mess.
2028 will be very hard to predict. The next (likely Democrat) President will either need to be a great uniter or a technocrat policy wonk. Newsom is highly divisive, esp in Republican states and seems kinda stupid. Would be quietly disastrous for the US. I hope he doesn't win the primaries. I like Pete, but black-homophobia may tank his campaign again. Would not be surprised if an out-of-left-field candidate showed up for 2028.
It's amazing how effectively Buttigieg has branded himself as a nerd technocrat chungus and gotten so much support from, well, the type of people who want that, given that we've now seen him in a national-level role perfect for wonky technocrats and he was useless at best. Maybe being President is easier than being Secretary of Transportation? (At this point, I think that might not be a sarcastic thing to say)
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I like Pete as well, but we all know it's going to be Newsom.
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Predicting Democrats won't fumble a good position is bad epistemic hygeine.
Like predicting the Jets to win a super bowl.
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Yea, Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024 are of course very impressive given that he came from a non-political background and defeated many very experienced rivals, but he's never had a landslide. He narrowly beat two of the least charismatic presidential candidates that I can remember ever seeing, Hillary and Kamala. To be fair, there's a good chance he would have beat Biden if it hadn't been for COVID, but Biden also isn't exactly a Bill Clinton or an Obama level candidate in terms of charisma so I don't know if that's saying much. Right-wing populism has a solid future - after all, it's a popular response to many real issues. But the Trump form of it is vulnerable.
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“Non-defense,” spending huh? So presumably, offense? Lol. The political doublespeak is always a trip. Reminds me when Matt Slick described God’s attributes as “non-dependent.” With the American military occupation all over the planet and the resolve to “defend our interests” everywhere we have them, the contrast strikes me as a distinction without a difference.
The cuts it involves are insane IMO and not worth it unless you think out of all that excess spending, benefits will fall out of it and accrue to other industries and subsectors of the economy that will make up the gap and deficit to these areas and departments, but I don’t see it. The article’s “light on the details” statement I think makes a good point related to that.
In context of "a 10% cut in non-defense spending", it means federal/domestic programs. Research, agencies, welfare, grants, subsidies, etc.
Hard to know how domestic industry isn’t important to your country’s ability to survive. If “non-military,” then sure, but then how asinine their claims would look. I think that’s why they ran with “non-defense.”
It's standard budget verbiage, and has been used by every administration since I've been alive. "Defense spending" and... "everything other than defense spending". But the latter is a lot more words than "non-defense".
It's neither new nor partisan
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