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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026

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I'm sympathetic to Jonah Goldberg's argument in this podcast, that is, that El-Sayed wants the Democrats to be a straightforward anti-Israel party.

I don't think El-Sayed supports the full Muslim Brotherhood agenda. The social democrat positions that he holds are honest. He is not, I think, secretly an MB supporter in the sense of everything they stand for. But he is, I think, basically a middle-class western Muslim who attributes a disproportionate level of importance of Israel, and it has become organising for his thoughts in a way that it is not for other people.

I'm sympathetic to Jonah Goldberg's argument in this podcast, that is, that El-Sayed wants the Democrats to be a straightforward anti-Israel party.

To be fair, at the moment the Democrats, like the Republicans, are a straightforward pro-Israel party. Most state governors would probably be thrilled to get half the per-capita resources from the USG the US spends on propping up Israel even without the ability to also drag the US into wars for their benefits. Most US states might even spend a smaller fraction of comparable federal resources on killing people.

We know how it looks if the US is 'anti-$COUNTRY'. They find themselves internationally isolated, their nuclear facilities get bombed, their leaders get assassinated or kidnapped, their military (and sometimes educational) facilities get annihilated, their civilian infrastructure destroyed, Trump calls them bad names on Twitter.

For Israel, that is currently far outside of the Overton window, which is a good thing, because most of these tactics are net-negative for global utility no matter who is on the receiving end.

What is reasonable is unfriendly neutrality. "We think your government is doing bad things, thus we might do some trading with you but will not sell you weapons or go out of our way to protect your interests." If Israel can persuade Gulf monarchies to shoot down incoming missiles for them, good for them, otherwise, bombing the shit out of each other seems to be a quaint ME custom which us Westerners can simply not get, it would be disrespectful to their religions interfere on one side or another.

But he is, I think, basically a middle-class western Muslim who attributes a disproportionate level of importance of Israel, and it has become organising for his thoughts in a way that it is not for other people.

The problem is that Israel and AIPAC clearly have an outsized effect on US politics. If someone told me that the Uzbek or Peruvians were largely responsible for US foreign policy, they would have a hard time providing evidence for that. With Israel, the claim that they do not have a higher influence than Uzbekistan on US policy is plainly absurd.

The real failure mode is that people over-update on the evidence, and it becomes a lens through which all of the world is perceived. If you have just learned about the Van-der-Waals force and are excited about it, you might start to attribute all sorts of effects to it which are vaguely explainable by it but are in actuality unrelated to it. Similar things happen with all sorts of lenses: you can probably discover something worthwhile about international politics by looking at it from the perspective of gender relations, but if you are unable to take off the gender lenses, you will be blind to a zillion explanations which have nothing to do with gender.

Most state governors would probably be thrilled to get half the per-capita resources from the USG the US spends on propping up Israel

Officially Israel is earmarked $3.8 Billion a year, which with 9.55 Million people comes out to a few hundred dollars per capita. Quick estimate is that even the most-neglected states get $3,500 in federal spending per capita, an order of magnitude larger.

You can argue that Israel gets a lot of other value out of the American government, but then, so does the taxpayer. Social security paid $1.58 Trillion last year.

Another figure going around is $147 Billion to Israel, over about 80 years, since Israel's founding in 1948. I don't know what the equivalent figure is for American spending but I'm quite confident if we total up all the federal money spent on each American state since 1948 it remains orders of magnitude larger.

Israel definitely plays an outsized role in American politics and has benefited from a lot of generosity and largesse. But it doesn't even come close to what Americans spend on themselves.

After looking up the data, Israel gets $350 per citizen almost exclusively for war. Meanwhile Africa gets $7 and Central America gets $10 on a blended basis.

That's pretty horrifying.

Why is that horrifying? Outside of we ought not fund any of this

Both the magnitude of aid to a first world country and its purpose I find distasteful.

I understand Israel is a proxy and the money creates utility, it doesn't mean I like it.

It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner. That is the way it was and will be. That way and not some other way.

Yes the US spends more on itself than it does Israel. What even is the point of this comment? Is that the new Israel talking point? Yeah we get lots of money but you spend more on yourself so it’s not a big deal?

Yes the US spends more on itself than it does Israel.

Well, I don't see you correcting user quiet_NaN, who said the opposite. We agree!

If you want to argue with me just say so, I have some free time.

I didn’t realize he said that so then you are right we agree. That is a ridiculous claim to make.

His father in law is cair. His (albeit estranged) mother was MB. His father is on an organization that has questionable ties. He himself wrote a letter supporting MB.

There is a massive amount of smoke surrounding him. Don’t know why it’s crazy to think he just might be the real McCoy.

One of his staffers is facing federal charges for hate crime vandalism and death threats against Jews. Another just had a viral moment where she chimped out on a Jewish journalist, assaulted her, assaulted the cops, was drug off screaming death threats.

Released within a day, no charges pending, obvs.

facing federal charges for hate crime vandalism and death threats against Jews

She vandalized a military production facility during a period where 85% of children were going hungry due to a food blockade against civilians:

85 per cent of children did not eat for a whole day at least once in the three days before the survey was conducted.

7% of children had moderate or severe malnutrition:

A separate study of 1200 children in Gaza between February 2024 and June 2024 estimated that 6.7% and 9.6% of children below age 5 years had severe and MAM, respectively, also with higher estimates among children in North Gaza

The baseline rate for this in Gaza is 1-1.5%, though this is probably because of the blockades etc they suffered from before the war. In the US the baseline rate is 0.1%.

She vandalized a military production facility during a period where 85% of children were going hungry due to a food blockade against civilians:

I'm sorry you believe anything coming out of Gaza.

Are devout Muslims allowed to lie to non-Muslims to advance Islamic interests? A devout Christian could not for example sell a non-Christian on the benefits of trans in schools. It’s a sin to lead others to sin.

A reminder that when an Evangelical bombs a Muslim country they have to wrap the bombs in “for Democracy” and “women’s school”. Bush had to bomb Muslims for human rights and not because they were Muslims.

My understanding is that Taqiyya is basically the doctrine that Muslims are allowed to lie to avoid persecution. Not a feature of Christianity- Christians are expected to accept martyrdom- but also not a load-bearing pillar of some long term conspiracy.

Taqiyya is real* and probably allowed** by Islam but is a very poor model for how people rationalize and think.

AES is almost certainly not lying smiling while twirling his mustache with his fingers crossed behind his back. (This kind of thinking actually turns off a lot of liberals from seeing what conservatives are seeing.)

AES is probably just rationalizing. Which is to say, he's a Muslim, and has a lot of sympathy for Muslims, and Muslim organizations, and extends them a lot of charity in his own mind. And he's an American, which means of course he condemns terrorism and extremism. If those identities come into conflict at all it is totally rationalized away because they can't possibly come into conflict, definitionally, a priori. His family network contains Islamic ties because Islam is normal and good, but also of course he condemns extremism because he's a loyal American, not that MB contains anything to condemn, but if they did it's unrelated to AES or his family, because it has to be. It's very simple, you must understand. You don't get it? Your reasoning must be motivated somehow, you're probably racist or bigoted, that would explain why you can't see how very simple it is.

Orwell is a cliche now but I think he was spot-on with his model of "doublethink". You simply have to hold two opposing ideas in your mind at the same time. Although in this case the two ideas don't even have to be total opposites because it's very possible to imagine someone who is both a Muslim and both an American patriot. It only becomes doublethink at the points of intersection where "faithful Muslim"*** and "loyal American" seem to conflict. ("Seem" because we know deep down that they must not.)

* Exists in official doctrine somewhere that faithful laity never read,

** And isn't necessary anyways because most Muslims and Islamic cultures are quite open about their passions and antipathies.

*** AES is probably not a faithful Muslim, he's probably the classic half-atheist half-progressive standard model.

I mean there’s a difference between “not supposed to lie, but do it anyway” and “lying is fine actually.” There is no Christian doctrine that says I can lie to advance Christianity. It doesn’t exist. If you lie as a Christian, it’s a sin, no matter what causes its advancing. If a Muslim lies for the sake of Islam, my understanding is that it’s not a sin.

Christian views on lying are complicated. As far as I am aware, only Quakers categorically forbid both making false statements and selectively making true statements with intent to induce false beliefs. The Biblical passages normally cited as unequivocal condemnations of lying appear in contexts where it is clear that they refer to defamation (thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour) or commercial fraud.

It is an edge case of "Christian", but Mormons explicitly encourage deception-by-selective-truth-telling as a seeker-sensitive way of introducing LDS doctrine to potential converts. The traditional term is "milk before meat".

There are times when lying is permissible. Based on this article, I don't think this is one of them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taqiyya

Although maybe you can tie yourself in knots and get there "to save lives in Gaza" or whatever.

I can’t tell how stretchy that is in practice but here is one line I found in that article, “ Safeguarding of a Muslim's life is a mandatory obligation that should be observed; and that lying is permissible when the shedding of a Muslim's blood is at stake.”

I feel Israel is indirect but this would seem in a very stretchy way he could advocate for trans rights if he thinks more Democrats means less Israel funding and therefore less dead Muslims. Which opens the door for him being full Muslim Brotherhood.

It's okay to break the rules to save lives or if you have the chance to bang a blonde girl (although it sounds like El Sayed may have struck out in that department before he was famous).

I think the simplest assumption is that he's probably serious about Muslim supremacy but also not super strict about following all the rules.

To be honest I don’t think you can be Muslim and a Democrat in the same way that you can’t be Catholic and a Democrat. You can be a skinsuit globally homogenous Democrat who by virtue of ancestry are Muslim but follow Muslim beliefs. An ethnic Muslim but not a religious Muslim.

Trans is one example where a real Muslim’s response could be nothing less than trans mental people have a mental illness and should be locked up. And there really is no way to sugar coat that while maintaining spiritual connection to god.

I can’t see “anti-Israel” being a core belief that drives all of your beliefs but a symptom of a broader world view. For a typical progressive I think their mental model flows primarily thru an “oppressor-oppressed” framework which makes a progressive good person because they fight for the weak. Israel therefore is the bad side of this framework because they are rich.

The best mental model I can come up with Sayed is to model him on wealthy brown friends who are non-religious but tend dislike Israel for a vague tribal connection feeling similar to how an American with an Irish name supports Ireland. Basically the same reason I hate a few sports teams.

Agreed. Male homosexuality is a bigger sticking point than trans - all three Abrahamic religions unequivocally prohibit it, and to be a leftist in good standing requires you to take Pride in it.

If the Abrahamic God, heaven, and hell exist, then there are no unrepentant Sodomites in heaven, and this is a hatefact by conventional left-wing standards. Tim Farron was forced out as leader of the UK Liberal Democrats over this point - he was unwilling to say that male homosexuality is not a sin, and the party was not willing to be led by someone who believed that it was.

I can’t see “anti-Israel” being a core belief

I think "Israel is the permanent hereditary enemy of my tribe" can sensibly be a core belief if Palestinians, or Arabs or Muslims more generally, are your tribe.

Trans is one example where a real Muslim’s response could be nothing less than trans mental people have a mental illness and should be locked up.

Iran has allowed it since the 1980s. Even while homosexuality is still punished severely, including even executions. So I'm not sure this is necessarily true.

Iran uses medical transition as a loophole for any gay imams to be able to bang dudes without violating sharia by forcing other gay men to transition to avoid being stoned, hanged or defenestrated. It is progressive only via horseshoe theory.

I feel like this is one of those too good to check things that comes up every once in a while. It's about the 10th time I've heard it.

So here's my question. Is this just like 3 dudes who transitioned socially in the 1980s, or is this a real thing with medical transition clinics, drag shows at libraries, ideological support, the whole nine yards?

If I had to wager, I'd guess it's the former and that by any reasonable western standard, Iran would be considered extremely anti-trans.

Drag shows at libraries, no. I'd imagine Western rainbow-flag-ism is about as banned as you'd think it'd be.

But they do have medical transition clinics which see some use. The government will recognize the transition and even change your name and sex on your birth certificate. The public isn't too much in favour of it, and these people obviously do see discrimination, but Khomeini himself issued not one but two fatwas explicitly endorsing it.

It's also a way for homosexuals to get out of the punishment for being homosexual (I'm explicitly not saying "gay" here as I am referring to the sexual orientation and not to the whole culture that's been built around it in the West). They'll make you have surgery before they'll recognize it though, so it's your dick or your life, basically.

Minus that last part it's not too far off from how it used to be in Western countries before the 2010s. Gender dysphoria has been a thing for a while, so has transition, it just used to be rare and not politicised.

Iran actually has a very high rate of trans-ID. Often at gunpoint, they force homosexuals to transition.

The #yeschad way to be pro trans rights.

This is extremely easy to look up; Iran subscribes to some transgender ideology, but it doesn’t manifest in the same way at all because they're very socially illiberal instead of very socially liberal. It's a fluke but not in the sense that it involves very few people or in the sense that it isn’t very well-established policy.

I looked it up. Exact numbers are impossible to find, but they do have medical transitioning. Best/most recent data that ChatGPT could find was this:

839 qualifying medical records were examined in a nationwide study covering referrals during March 2012–March 2017. That was a diagnosis/referral count, not a count of completed transitions.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02250-y

Also this:

1,366 people applied for surgical transition permits during 2006–2010. These were applications; the records don’t establish how many underwent surgery

https://6rang.org/english/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Diagnosing-Identities-Paralyzing-Bodies.pdf

How many actually get surgery? Presumably it's non zero but it could be anywhere from single digits to about 200 per year. I'd treat any reporting on this as highly suspicious by default as its something that certain people want to be true so badly they will crucify the truth to make it that way. It's not a neutral issue where academic and media reporting can be trusted uncritically.

Nevertheless, it does appear to be happening. Very odd.

Obligatory Sarah Haider reference, I suppose? What Islam as a tradition and a body of doctrine teaches is less important than what specific Muslim-identifying people hold to be important - and in a case like Abdul El-Sayed, it's pretty clear that opposition to Israel is central to his worldview and his political advocacy whereas opposition to gender ideology is pretty clearly not.

The fact that Islam as a body of doctrine takes no special position on the existence of a state of Israel (that is, from an orthodox Islamic perspective, there is nothing special or interesting about Judaism qua Judaism, nor Israel qua Israel), and takes a much stronger position on gender, is not consequential. 'Islam', in El-Sayed's case, is an ethnic and a cultural background that informs his identity, rather than a set of propositions to be affirmed or rejected.

and in a case like Abdul El-Sayed, it's pretty clear that opposition to Israel is central to his worldview and his political advocacy whereas opposition to gender ideology is pretty clearly not.

Right, so it's not a product of Islam that he'd rather agitate for the return of the third holiest site in the faith and the removal of the rival religion claiming it rather than the bathroom culture for a non-Muslim country whose schools he has ways of avoiding?

I'm not saying the former is objectively a more Muslim priority but it's at least debatable.

I mean, I hate to break down actual Christian history vis a vis Israel and Judaism and who should control Jerusalem vs current Christian priorities.

Her MINO category fits with every “Muslim” I have ever met. I don’t believe you can be both “Muslim” and “Western”. Real Muslims would be hated by blue and red tribe. I have many MINO friends but no Muslim friends. My vibes on Sayed is he’s one of these MINOs. His family probably does have some Muslim Brotherhood ties, but he vibes fully secularized to me.

The anti-Israel in his worldview feels very much like sports team fandom to me. I am not sure if Sayed types have to be anti-Israel but if you are a Democratic politician today and Democrats hate Israel then rooting for the Muslim side feels like the correct team to cheer for.

I do have a MINO friend whose family loves Trump so they can play for either side. I think a struggle for these types comes down to having to adopt someone else’s culture - Western Culture - instead of being born into it.

MINO's would also be hated by the red tribe, which is just generally islamophobic.

I think their are spots a MINO could fit into the red tribe. I call it the pagan right and I would call Peter Thiel the leading proponent of it.

Obviously, a MINO would not fit in with the Christian right which is probably still the largest right wing coalition partner. A MINO has basically depersoned themselves. They no longer have a central ideology and have fallen into global homogenism. No longer having a cultural tradition they are attached to then yes that does not fit with the definition of conservativism which is about maintaining traditions.

There is no pagan right, at least not in the red tribe(which is the sine qua non of american rightist politics for the forseeable future).

There are red tribers who do not practice Christianity, yes. There are red tribers who are secular, yes. But the red tribe itself rejects the idea that people who are not nominally Christian- or Jewish- can be a part of it.

I don’t believe you can be both “Muslim” and “Western”.

Dunno. There is a quietist strain in Islam, though I think it's harder in a democracy.

But "abide by the local rules and do not get involved" isn't really what people waving the globohomo flags are doing.

The anti-Israel in his worldview feels very much like sports team fandom to me. I am not sure if Sayed types have to be anti-Israel but if you are a Democratic politician today and Democrats hate Israel then rooting for the Muslim side feels like the correct team to cheer for.

You have it backwards: it's sports fandom to the Westerners. The El Sayed types were almost certainly already be anti-Israel as an inheritance that they now feel they can bring to politics because the cordon sanitaire against being anti-Israel is breaking. Before it broke, they (and their white allies) were still trying.

El-Sayed identity is what I’m trying to find out here. If he’s closer to MB then being anti-Israel is obviously his type. I think the not religious MINO types have affection for Palestinians because it feels like your tribe/team. I don’t think general MINO types thought about Israel before it was in the news everyday.

I dunno. Imagine the median secular Muslim activist at the DSA or DNC before October 7. Are they pro-Israel?

I think it was low salience but high in consensus until the war. Then it became more of an organizing principle.

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