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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   31909 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 17, 2023

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Poland must be “reminded” its western territories were “gift from Stalin”, says Putin

Lukashenko claims Poland is trying to annex Ukraine, Wagner troops want to invade

Just a reminder where Putin's eyes are looking at when/if he's done with Ukraine. We've been through this scenario before, where Putin prepared the invasion of Ukraine for 8 years, absolutely in public, never hiding his intentions, always claiming Ukraine is a fake state, ruled by illegitimate regime and must be liberated - and yet everybody was so surprised when the invasion actually happened. And yet, lots of people are lecturing me all the time about how Putin didn't actually want to do any of that and was forced to do it by "Western meddling". I don't expect many people to change any of their conclusions from this round of saber-rattling, and I don't also expect Putin to invade Poland tomorrow (or this year, or anytime before Ukraine situation has resolved one way or another), but the time may come to be oh so surprised again, because literally nothing pointed to this next move by Putin. And I am sure if that happen, the "meddling" will be blamed again. I certainly don't want to see this happening, but as things are going now, I am afraid I might.

Sure Putin would want Poland. But I think it’s beyond clear that Poland couldn’t be conquored by Russia. If the west suddenly went full pacifists then at most Russia could pick off like some Estonia and Baltics.

But I think it’s beyond clear that Poland couldn’t be conquored by Russia

Whole Poland? Probably not, at least not in the near future. But some borderline territories, for starters? Say, the corridor leading to Königsberg, now known as Kaliningrad? Why not. Do you imagine President Ocasio-Cortez sending the best US troops into the harm's way to defend places with names like Szypliszki and Stańczyki, which no CNN commentator could even pronounce - especially if it comes with the risk of global nuclear war? I think a lot of people would object to that.

The CNN commentators certainly learned to pronounce Kharkiv and Bakhmut.

Dude, yes.

The rules based international order is totally a soc-dem jam, they are all about that shit.

AOC isn’t really a generic European SocDem, Secretary of State Ilhan Omar would call supporting Poland “helping racist white people over supporting Black and Brown racialized bodies at home”.

Of course, President AOC is rather unlikely to come to pass (and if it did then, like Trump, her power would be very much limited).

Poland has one of the strongest conventional militaries in Europe, other major European powers have a strong interest in Russia not attacking NATO countries, etc. It’s very clear that Russia loses in a direct NATO-Ru conventional war, and I think it only marginally less clear they lose in a war where the US doesn’t show up. Even if the USA sits out, Finland+Poland have a pretty good shot at beating back Russia on their own, and France, Germany, the UK, etc have strong motivations to send their armies off to war even if we don’t.

Yes, I can very easily imagine a President Ocasio-Cortez doing exactly that. I find it much harder to imagine her saying no to all the people that would be insisting that America stand by its alliances.

Do you imagine President Ocasio-Cortez sending the best US troops into the harm's way to defend places with names like Szypliszki and Stańczyki, which no CNN commentator could even pronounce - especially if it comes with the risk of global nuclear war? I think a lot of people would object to that.

I think for the millions of Americans with Polish ancestry those aren't just unpronounceable names, but places they would be more than willing to fight and die to protect, whether as part of an official intervention or as part of volunteer brigades. That's not to mention the fact that the Polish army is better equipped and better trained than the Ukrainians were at the start of the invasion last year, they would be facing a thoroughly depleted and less motivated Russian military, and there are already thousands of US soldiers present in the country who would probably get hit in the crossfire at the start of an attack and trigger demands for retaliation.

If they're struggling against a basket case like Ukraine they definitely can't take on Poland. The US already has troops stationed there and I'm sure Poland would get at least as much equipment as we're sending Ukraine but probably much more. I don't think it would matter much who the president is, there would be overwhelming bipartisan support to intervene.

Also, NATO isn't just the US. Even if the USA ignores its treaty obligations because ASB, there's still Britain/France/Germany.

It's hard to see Germany lifting a finger to defend Poland without the US in the mix. The only country Poland has more bad blood with is Russia.

Even if there wasn’t decades of cooperation, treaties, and well, friendship, between Poland and Germany, the germans would be shooting themselves in the foot by leaving poland to putin. French strategists like to say that ‘France is an island now’ – meaning there is no realistic scenario where its neighbours invade her. Island status is very valuable, and it is attained by most EU countries. At some point you do run into hostile neighbours though. Poland and Finland are the moat securing the rest, and germany has no desire to take their place.

Even a few fighter jets would stop any Russian advance in it's tracks. I also can't understand how you think the NATO treaty isn't sacrosanct. It is the new religion of the West. Where once mighty Rome and then the Sacred Church stood, now NATO takes their place.

In a situation where the US wasn't honoring its treaty obligations, the NATO treaty clearly would not be sacrosanct.

And if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle.

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The only country Poland has more bad blood with is Russia.

For start that is likely Belarus right now.

There is no ill will against Poland in Germany by and large. Apathy and condescension, yes, but no bad blood. The people from the former eastern territories are dead or soon will be and their descendants don't recognize themselves as such, so basically no one has any real historical grievance against Poland. Negative feelings are reserved for admonishing Poles about LGBT rights or abortion.

There'd be little enthusiasm among the general populace, but if Poland asked and genuinely needed assistance the German government would definitely send help. NATO commitments and ethics aside, they would do it for the sole reason of it being an excellent addition to the post-WW2 German national mythos.

If we're defending Ukraine, we'll definitely defend Poland. It's not even "pro-Poland" (though I'm not sure where you're getting 'bad blood' from; I'm not seeing that in the German media offhand). But Germany is pretty thoroughly committed to the idea of the EU and an attack on one is obviously an attack on all.

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