domain:forecasting.substack.com
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
46m ago
I remember when they got him to review the new Escalade because he was the yankeeboo. The size mismatch was comical, to say the least.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
52m ago
I can tell when people are talking, but usually not when they're singing.
Cute girls in libertarian sci-fi worked out for Devon Erikson, it could work for you too. I am also sad that 'methfueledinsaneloli' is not a widely used tag.
KingOfTheBailey
2hr ago
It might be stronger in recent years, where pushing "the message" became much more of a thing in entertainment, but the anti-mutant Senator Kelly was created in 1980 and appeared in the 1990s X-Men animated series. (Because you've listed X-Men alongside BvS, Marvel, etc., I'm guessing you're thinking more of the 2000s Fox movies, or possibly the recent X-Men '97.)
2rafa
2hr ago
Yeah, great post. If you want a hot, relatively chaste, young, smart right-leaning woman, that’s not impossible, but you better be the equivalent of that as a man, namely a successful, attractive, charming, relatively young guy who probably has similar values, which in the case of chastity is likely some kind of religious conservatism. Young Mormon men seem to have no issue marrying chaste(ish) pretty blondes who will vote for Romney and deliver 3-4 children, because that’s their milieu. Too often some chubby suburban secular engineer whose primary hobbies are video games and online political discussion thinks he deserves the same.
Hot young people are in no short supply, and some substantial subsection of that group (assuming nothing truly weird or ambitious) likely meets anyone’s individual extra standards. But you have to make sure you’re part of that group, and you’re where the young people are (NYC, SF, LA, etc) and that you have things to offer that they want, too.
A 35 year old average looking guy of average means probably isn’t going to marry a 23 year old conservative trad virgin. If that’s the blackpill @faceh was talking about then, sure, it’s real. But at that point the unlikelihood of winning the lottery is a blackpill, and so is a peasant girl realizing she’s unlikely to marry the prince. If you’re in your thirties as a man you have to accept you missed the first wave of pairings (and arguably the second) and likely (unless extremely hot or successful) have to make do with women for whom the same is true. That’s no great injustice.
How many are single, heterosexual, haven't had kids already, are not grossly overweight, are not riddled with mental disorders, don't have a huge bodycount or any Onlyfans, and are actually interested in having and raising kids in a committed, monogamous relationship.
If you’re middle class, live in the downtown core (rather than fat suburbs) of a major coastal city and are under 30 and dating under 30 year old women then…yeah, there are a pretty large number of these women, tens or hundreds of thousands of them depending on where you are. Certainly enough not to ‘give up’.
I'm asking for a quantification of how many women out there are actually likely to pass the filter.
The honest answer is "I have no clue" we're talking about people's intimate relationships, and I just don't have that much insight into them. But going by what I was able to see, the odds are pretty good, like, in the neighborhood of 100%. I've seen a militant feminist bending over backwards for a 5/10, mildly successful autist who just fell out of love with her, and ended up breaking up, I've seen another psy-op herself into tolerating infidelity / polyamory / wtf it they were calling it, I've seen successful "I can fix her" stories. Now, I'm not saying ~100% of women are marriage material, but I just haven't seen a case where the "gynosupremacy" was the reason for a relationship to fall apart.
somedude
3hr ago
Even Reddit normies are getting sick of being beaten over the head with the message, and are getting updoots for saying so.
https://old.reddit.com/r/television/comments/1dewmxw/the_boys_season_4_premiere_discussion/?sort=top
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
3hr ago
The first rule of reddit since around 2018 has been that if the post is a matter of opinion and is massively upvoted, it's probably an ill-conceived and kneejerk adherence to the most stereotypical, un-nuanced progressive norms. If the same is true but it is a matter of fact, the upvoted post may or may not be true but will have no sourced links as support. Reddit has lost all credibility for me except niche DIY subs or anything related to anything practical, where bad advice is usually immediately called out as such.
2rafa
3hr ago
I'm continually surprised at how little dirt they've managed to pull up on him. In NYC real estate work I'd assumed he had at least a few skeletons in the closet/at the bottom of the harbor.
Most of the NYC real estate dirt existed for decades in the open because it was NY tabloid fodder, like destroying the Bonwit Teller statues, various lawsuits from tenants of the usual slumlord type, the rape allegation by an ex wife etc. Trump was famous enough that anything juicy was saleable already and so had mostly already been printed. The stuff that wasn’t was more minor, like Access Hollywood. He wouldn’t have had anyone killed, he dealt with the mafia through the unions like all NY real estate developers, and they handle their own business.
2rafa
3hr ago
Agree, if Maples did come out and say she had one Trump would simply deny he had anything to do with it, say it was “a shame” and move on, it wouldn’t hurt him.
You, the invoker of IQ, need to prove the numbers work as numbers and aren't better being left as philosophical concepts or practical examples, or point to something well established that does.
Funny, I don't think I do. What I think is that we have a testable metric which at the population level correlates reliably and meaningfully with both racial groupings and life outcomes, that this fact has substantial explanatory power, and that these correlations will persist regardless of what you think of that metric.
What I think is that fifty or sixty years of failed racial uplift will in due time turn into seventy, and then eighty, and then ninety, a hundred, so on and so forth indefinitely, barring the apocalypse or some sort of massive sci-fi technological intervention. I think that when you and I are both dead from old age, the exact same group will still be hopelessly behind, and someone somewhere will still be doing this exact same tap dance.
They'll still be just as eager to repeat how racial categories can have fuzzy boundaries, still ever so philosophically uncertain of the value of IQ as a metric. But that uncertainty will never allow them to raise a proportionately equal share of brain surgeons, or what have you, from the population at the bottom of the ranking.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3hr ago
Sure, I wouldn't want ancestry rules applied in a professional context, but I think there should also be some amount of loyalty to your fellow countrymen. I don't have a strong opinion over how much precisely that would be. The way I see it, countries should follow a general "[insert country here] first" framework, and people with deep roots should have relative priority over newcomers. Though even the latter I wouldn't want to go too far, so it won't turn into a dick-measuring contest over who's ancestors were here the longest.
Forgotpassword
4hr ago
Shameless plug for something I run but https://shuffle.com/sports/novelties/politics/france/french2024 we were first up with markets and been surprisingly heavy betting on it. Super heavy RN action. No US/UK/AUS.
crushedoranges
4hr ago
Yes (although it's long finished.) I feel a little embarassed to shill my own stuff, but I'm currently writing fun science fiction. Fun in that 'there are as many cute girls as I can feasibly fit into the suspension of disbelief.
Don't judge me.
TIRM
4hr ago
Yes. Whedon said the list of required character vs character fights or interactions was so large it took up all of the run time for The Avengers. To the point where he had no time to conclude the story and simply decided that all the aliens would fall over dead at the end to instantly wrap things up. Which he thinks is a bad ending, but he had no choice given the constraints.
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
4hr ago
I can't really identify people as British from their singing, personally.
FD4280
5hr ago
Blah. Thanks for the correction. I stopped at two when grad school got really busy, planned to get back to it... guess that's out.
edmund-nelson
5hr ago
Oh War and Peace is great but was a terrible movie precisely because so much of the book does not translate to the big screen.
I watched some drone footage of Russians fighting drones and it's a really depressing scene, lots of footage of drones flying not seeing anything then transmission ends via shotgun blast. (you often see the shotgun shells just before impact).
I can imagine at some point a video game where you are using drones shotguns and artillery to fight your opponent with drones shotguns and artillery in a trench, maybe even some Rifles and machine guns placed in for more trench warfare. Clearly you being the player would have to control drones, but small drones dropping mortar round after mortar round would be a fun game maybe idk.
Glassnoser
5hr ago
Wouldn't you have known he was British when you heard his voice?
Glassnoser
5hr ago
Do you mean higher than it used to be?
ChickenOverlord
5hr ago
LotGH is far above the average for stories when it comes to caring about the plot and world making sense, but even then it has a few things that seem poorly explained/motivated. Off the top of my head:
Everyone's insistence of following Commodore Fork's invasion plan regardless of how retarded it was
Trunicht's motivation for letting the child emperor live in alliance territory and form a government in exile
Almost everything surrounding the Reuental Revolt, though I feel like the author was starting to run out of steam at that point
I'd argue that in the developed world, nobody has any gains to be made. We've removed lead from gasoline, famine and malnutrition are distant memories. In terms of IQ, we've picked all the low-hanging fruit. If there was a way to actually increase a child's IQ beyond avoiding stressors like malnutrition or poisoning, the tiger mothers and educational establishment would have found it by now.
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