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(the US doesn't officially recognize dual citizenship, but I assume Israel still considers her a citizen unless she formally renounced it, but unless you prove she still has an Israeli passport you're just speculating)

That's like the worst kind of rules lawyering. One's personal convictions don't evaporate just because the US doesn't recognize dual-citizenship. It's not the piece of paper that drives a man/woman to choose their own ethinc group for favoritism.

Personal anecdote, we had an order from the higher ups that we must use LLMs, and that they will be tracking how often we use them.

In Europe the push for AI is absolutely bonkers. On top of stories like yours, I've seen academics shill for their field to adopt it, like they were sales reps the public sector incentivizing it's workers to dip their toe in the water and start using them, etc. There was an entire infrastructure of workshop providers ready to go within weeks of when GPT-3 was announced, and it was aimed at some of the most calcified sectors of society.

The mundane theory I have is that this is (another one of) Europe's ill-conceived attempt(s) at overtaking the US in terms of innovation. The conspiracy theory is that they really really want to automate surveillance ASAP. Quite possibly it's both, but either way someone high up had a bright idea, and they'll be damned if they don't see it through.

I can definitely see some marvel story telling tier potential shenanigans for the KCU, awww she privated her account.

I'm in software too, and my productivity is boosted hugely by ChatGPT. However, there are caveats - I'm an experienced developer using an unfamiliar language (Rust), and my interactions consist of describing my problem, reading the code it generates, and then picking and choosing some of the ideas in the final code I write myself. My experience and judgement is not obsolete yet! If you just treat it as a personalized Stack Overflow, it's amazing.

On the other hand, in my personal time, I do use it to rapidly write one-off scripts for things like math problems and puzzles. If you don't need maintainable code, and the stakes aren't too high, it can be an extremely powerful tool that is much faster than any human. You can see the now-ruined Advent of Code leaderboards for evidence of that.

I don't find the statement so ridiculous, unfortunately. As @ThomasdelVasto and I posted before, the corporate market may be in an irrational but metastable state. Far too much of white-collar work is just "adult daycare", and society has been built around the idea that this is how you keep people occupied. It's possible that, at some point, the whole edifice will collapse. But hey, I don't have a bird's-eye view and I could be wrong. Let's hope so!

Diplomatic immunity is the legal fact, but there's also a layer of diplomatic discretion underneath it. Sometimes you sweep things under the rug to keep your friends happy. If anything it's more effective as a gesture because you didn't have to do it. "Sure thing Benny old chum, I'll take care of this as a personal favor to you."

'Guy with connections gets off with slap on the wrist' is a story as old as law itself. It happens all the time and needs no special explanation.

Claude Sonnet 4 non-thinking also one-shot this when I tried it with a very short addendum to the prompt of

Strip the flavor text from the above, rewriting the problem to preserve only concrete observations. Then answer the rewritten question.

I work in the accounting field and there is this concept of “independence”. We cannot be seen to give or take favors from our clients, in practice or appearance. We go through great pains to do this as one might assume we allow our clients to cook the books in return for other consideration.

An honorable Jewish Israeli judge would throw the book at this guy because they wouldn’t even want the appearance of impropriety. But that really doesn’t happen.

I'm totally agreed with "Humans do have an enormous capacity for learned associations and behaviours, but only so long as etc." -- not everyone has the same capacity for the same worldview.

But for any given person, there are tons of people (some which are closely related and some which are not) who do have that capacity. And within that group, memetic effects are far stronger than genetic ones.

But yeah, happy to pick this up again in a few sections/weeks!

Assuming AI use is kept up (whether by compulsion or voluntarily), 1.5-2.5 years (70% confidence interval), maybe?

we had an order from the higher ups that we must use LLMs, and that they will be tracking how often we use them

And absolute dipshittery like this is why 95% of LLM projects (whatever that actually means) fail, not because LLMs are stupid, but because the people using them are

Training a model to operate robotics for conventionally "hard" problems

This is really hard and if current models could easily be trained to do it they already would have

We really haven't seen a matching boom in productivity.

Or the current march of productivity increases throughout the 2000s is as a result of shit like cloud software tools, and in a counter factual world where tech stagnated, productivity would be much lower than our actual world?

Most office work is fake email jobs.

This is a ridiculous statement. If you think so, you should post your short positions.

Or, you should start up competing white collar companies and undercut all the companies you think have massive amounts of fake email job deadweight. As you'd have a much leaner cost structure.

FWIW, the most interesting answer to "the fittest" in my mind is probably MMA competition,

There's a certain primal appeal to fighting, absolutely, but I also feel like combat sports s&c is pretty unsophisticated or downright goofy compared to more specialized events because, well, perfectly optimized s&c isn't all that important relative to skills training.

I am an athletic mediocrity

Oh, sure, me too, and ultimately pretty similar logic re:specialization, I just think the many variations on "but what's his Fran time?" (perhaps more prevalent: "I would never want to look like that") are generally contemptible.

More generally, it occurs to me that the word "fit" by its etymology and other meanings pretty strongly implies specificity--fit for something or other. I don't know how many people this will convince, but it certainly makes me look on the concept of "general fitness" with a good deal of suspicion.

I’m well aware that this is a romantic view of it - the lives of premodern merchants were undoubtedly harsh. And I have done something akin to what you describe before, as I noted to Ioper (though less extreme than that; typically turnaround wasn’t two days). The number of times I’ve actually flown eludes me now, and I don’t disagree that it does wear on you. The exhaustion of constantly moving and never staying someplace for more than a month or two sets into your bones after a while. Your experience really does depend on the length of the trip though - shorter trips where you have no time to do anything else outside of what you went there to do probably suck, longer-lasting business trips are probably more favourable and (for me at least) are a net positive.

Regardless, the compulsion to travel still remains, and I get atypically antsy after having stayed someplace for too long. I’m not quite sure why - in spite of the downsides, there’s just something about the constant change of scenery that’s refreshing, and it stops you from getting bogged down in the same routines. The dullness and repetition of everyday life seems to grind me down badly in a way it doesn’t for many others.

Neither Polanski or Liu are examples of that. Liu was released due to lack of evidence. Polanski got a sweetheart deal like the Epstein case. The Saudi cases are far closer to this example, but still seem to be different:

That student, Abdulrahman Sameer Noorah, was freed from a Portland jail after the Saudi consulate in Los Angeles gave him $100,000 to cover his $1 million bail. He surrendered his passport and driver’s license to Homeland Security officials. But on a Saturday afternoon in June 2017, two weeks before Noorah was to go on trial for manslaughter, a large, black SUV picked him up at the home where he was staying and spirited him away. His ankle monitoring bracelet was later found by the roadside; a week later, he was back in Saudi Arabia — a fact that the authorities in Oregon did not learn until more than a year later.

Federal officials would not discuss their evidence in the case, but they said they believe it shows that the Saudi government helped Noorah flee the country. Investigators suspect that Saudi operatives provided the student with a replacement passport and may also have arranged for him to escape on a private jet, officials of the U.S. Marshals Service said.

... It is generally not possible to leave the United States by plane without a passport. National security officials said it was implausible that young Saudis on the run could obtain replacement passports or travel into Mexico by land without help. They suspect that Saudi operatives accompany or guide the fugitives.

The Saudi Embassy, unlike many others, routinely posts bail and hires criminal defense lawyers for its citizens when they are accused of crimes in the United States. But Nazer, the embassy spokesman, said it does not “issue travel documents to citizens engaged in legal proceedings.”

Danik, one of the former FBI officials who served in Riyadh, recalled dealing with cases of Saudis who fled despite the fact that U.S. courts had seized their passports. “I remember in some cases local police and U.S.-based FBI agents were angry,” he said. They would call the legal attache’s office in Riyadh afterward asking: ‘How did he get out of the U.S.?’ I told them if they’d have notified us beforehand, I could've possibly filed an affidavit opposing bail because Saudis arrested in the U.S. were often a flight risk.

So his passport was revoked and he was given an ankle bracelet. The escape involved a replaced passport and more coordination. This is not an escape where the US government is arguably looking the other way, this is the US Government letting him keep his passport and leave the country. And still the Saudi cases invite scrutiny with many demanding accountability. It's a different story here to say the least.

Steve Bannon's passport was seized when he was charged with Contempt of Congress... This is not SOP and is not even the case with these Saudi fugitives.

It's not the cell companies that are (mostly) doing this -- y'know those apps that ask permission for your location data with the disclaimer that they might share it with (meaning sell it to) third parties?

They do that -- it's a common & easy monetization strategy.

Technically you can 'opt out', but the app won't usually work if you refuse it access to your location; I guess you can put a fuzzer on it if you want, but hardly anyone does.

Hmmm, ok. So he was the only one released from jail while the other 7 caught in the same operation remained imprisoned and have already had court hearings, and his passport was not revoked, he was allowed to fly to Israel the next day... yet the U.S. government did not intervene. Well someone intervened, who did? Who made the decision and why?

The other 7 were denied bail?

According to Shaun King's sources:

lol

I don't know if you have experience actually working in tech but the "rapid revenue acceleration" is ringing some alarm bells

I've been in tech so long that all my alarm bells have blown out. At this point in my career, I assume most things are bullshit until I'm pleasantly surprised.

Sounds like you'll want to DCA into an ETF.

Though, if controlling your own money appeals to you, and you've got enough money to make the initial investment worth it, and you can be trusted to follow simple instructions and not reveal your seed phrase to anyone... Get a hardware wallet. Trezor is good. Mid range model.

It only lost 30% of its price during the April nonsense. Nvidia lost more. There were some early signs of btc perhaps turning into a safe haven for some people. Which is intriguing, though yes I agree it'll in all likelihood take a quick and serious beating in the next highly serious crisis. But that goes for most assets. Then it'll rebound. After a few hundred "deaths" as the media would have it, it's not too shabby at the Lazarus act.

Yes, btc and "crypto" are pretty different things. Btc is legit. 99,99% of crypto is worthless scammy trash.

And i expect that at some point those will all come crashing down. And when this happens, I expect that bitcoin will take a major hit. I doubt it will be a lethal blow, but I could easily see a >50% loss happening. That's a lot of risk if you are trying to preserve value.

People don't so much go via btc into crypto anymore like they were forced to do in 2017. If lots of shitcoins disappear, btc could easily survive and maybe even thrive more, with a larger proportion of the money finding its way to btc instead.

You seem to be confusing volatility with risk btw. There's no danger in a 50% downturn as long as it doesn't last for more than a few years. Obviously, if you're old/close to retirement, don't go heavy in risk assets. But that goes for the stock market too.

Macron is a head of state which means he has diplomatic immunity. Royals enjoy similar and very long lived privileges.

Random ministers and secretaries, even members of parliaments, unless specifically acting as diplomats do not and should not enjoy immunity from prosecution for crimes that fall under the jurisdiction of a foreign state.

You're either so important putting you in jail could start a war or you are not.