domain:parrhesia.substack.com
No_one
30m ago
I was reminded of the culture when reading the otherwise not that good AI-2027 essay.
There are even bioengineered human-like creatures (to humans what corgis are to wolves) sitting in office-like environments all day viewing readouts of what’s going on and excitedly approving of everything, since that satisfies some of Agent-4’s drives.33
RenOS
something is wrong
34m ago
Maybe I misunderstand you, but this is imo calculated the wrong way. Presumably, most of the dudes family is also 130 IQ, and you already explicitly spelled out that her parents and siblings are all 130 IQ. If the expected child IQ of a 130 IQ pairing from a 130 IQ wider family is actually 118 ... What astronomical luck did the families have up to then?
First, heritability is a red herring, since we're not in an adoption study or similar situation. These are rich parents raising their own rich daughter. The relevant factor is regression to the mean, which is generally estimated to be ca 0.5, i.e. if you take your spousal IQ_s, and compare it to the population mean IQ_p you're descended from, then you're kids IQ will be roughly (IQ_s + IQ_p)/2.
The population mean you regress to is generally speaking that of your actual sub-population, which is your wider family; Ideally you also know the IQ of your grandparents and uncles and aunts, that improves the estimate further. It's not always 100, which is a very common misconception. It's generally trivially acknowledged for clear examples, such as ethnic ashkenazi jewish among gentiles, but it even holds among seemingly homogenous groups. The reason you see regression towards 100 is partially that assortative mating in superficially homogenous groups is only moderate, so usually there is some difference between the respective spousal family background, and partially an artifact of averaging. But it certainly holds for ethnically separated groups with rather strict assortative mating as is typical in large parts of India, as I understand it.
So the expected child IQ of a 130 IQ pairing from a 130 IQ wider family is simply 130. With a single spouse at 90, the spousal average becomes 110 instead, and the final number after regression is around 120. Still a 10 point difference though, so I guess not a big difference on that account.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
55m ago
You have succeeded where AI and myself have failed.
MathWizard
Good things are good
55m ago
In general I think AI content belongs in separate designated zones. If not its own website, at least a dedicated section. AI fiction should be found in the AI fiction section, not mixed with the regular fiction. AI art belongs in the AI art section, not mixed with the regular art. AI non-fiction... probably doesn't need to be posted anywhere. It's going to end up some combination of wordy filler and stuff that's already been said somewhere else. Basically a super fancy version of a google search. If you're not prompting it yourself such that you want a super fancy version of a google search, reading essays someone else told an AI to make is unlikely to provide value.
A general exception to this is AI content which is supplemental in support of a greater creative work. If you're designing a game and the primary design and development is original work, but the art assets and/or music are AI generated that's probably fine. They're there to maintain immersion for the game. Or if you're writing a novel and the cover art is AI generated. I think this is an excellent use to allow AI to cover for your weaknesses so that you can play to your strengths. If the majority of something is AI generated then it belongs in the AI generated section so that people can voluntarily choose to engage with it with that in their mind.
FCfromSSC
Nuclear levels of sour
1hr ago
I think the biggest problem for me is the difference in framing and tactics. The people here frame it as a war, but I don't think it was ever that.
Are you familiar with Zunger's Tolerance is not a moral precept, or Ozy's Conservatives As Moral Mutants, written in January 2017 and June 2018, respectively? I'm not sure how far they spread in the Blue intelligentsia, but I can say that they seem to me to have provided great predictive and explanatory accuracy in the following years.
The left might learn something from the independents turning away, but I guarantee you they won't "learn" anything from the right's current tactics. They'll simply see it that the right is completely okay with using the full force of government to try to control culture, and think they need to play dirtier.
I think this is a likely-accurate prediction of how the logic plays out, but it still, at this late date, seems necessary to point out that the left has in fact been very actively using the government to try and control culture, to a degree that even Trump has not yet approached. Reds have not yet tried to exclude Blues from the finance and banking systems, nor leaned on the social media industry to implement broad-spectrum censorship and de-platforming of their opponents' political speech, to name two examples. Organized gangs of Reds are not marching in the streets beating people who disagree with them, while the police are ordered to look the other way.
BlindDeafRat
1hr ago
AuDHD is a combination of Autism and ADHD.
Tiber727
1hr ago
I think the biggest problem for me is the difference in framing and tactics. The people here frame it as a war, but I don't think it was ever that. To me, I think that the real problem with cancel culture is not a sort of "factional left vs. right" conflict. I think that the left has adopted the framework of the internet. What I mean by that is, you can pick a forum and cultivate your own echo chamber. If you don't agree with someone block them. There's a range of disagreement between "I disagree with you but that's okay" to "It's disgusting that you believe that and I don't think we can share the same space." I think that the left has developed a neurotic personality leading to the range of acceptable disagreement being tiny. I don't think they "took over" institutions so much as many individuals gravitated to similar locations based on their personality, and pushed out the right due to that tendency and the fact that they gravitated there in greater numbers.
They don't even think they're waging the culture war. They think they're going about their day doing boring and uncontroversial things like protesting for trans rights and then some asshole came along and they kicked him out like any normal human being would do. That's why the left claims the right invented the culture war or that "cancel culture doesn't exist."
I think the real problem is the neurotic personality more so than their ideas. Bad ideas are fine. I don't have much hope for the current generation, because attitudes are hard to change. I see articles like this that start to get it, but of course even here she can't shake the "the message wasn't bad, only the delivery" trap. That said, the real barometer is the next generation. Younger folks are rejecting the Democratic party even though politically speaking they're arguably more left than right.
The right is in full "We're aiming to crush you" mode. The left might learn something from the independents turning away, but I guarantee you they won't "learn" anything from the right's current tactics. They'll simply see it that the right is completely okay with using the full force of government to try to control culture, and think they need to play dirtier. The independents are the real decider here, and they may reject the right for their tactics.
ser
2hr ago
I get a big improvement in mental state after lifting, but it's after work 3 times a week. I used to improve my mental state by running, but my legs can't handle that and squats at the same time. What could I do on off days/daily?
No need to run. A walk at active pace for an hour or two is more than enough
Also, I don't recommend treating dating like a job interview, which you seem to be doing by having an extensive lists of prerequisites you're forcing yourself to get done before even trying. You're definitely on the right path in improving yourself, you definitely should keep going, not for the sake of dating but for yourself. Change the mindset from "I'm lifting because I want a girlfriend" to "I'm lifting because I want to be healthy" or because "lift heavy rock make bad thought in my ape head go away". Reason why I say all this is because with online dating, you're bound to fail many times. You'll be meeting complete strangers, failure rate is high. It will discourage you from improving yourself because your framing will be that you did all this work yet you still haven't achieved your goal. People with bad eyesight and poor sleep still date, don't wait on fixing this.
Spending WAAAY too much time on the internet doomscrolling
don't beat yourself up about this too much. Can actually turn this into a positive for yourself. Everyone under 30 is doomscrolling for hours too, girls you will meet will be brainrotted to the core just as much as you (unless you're doomscrolling autistic sites which is highly likely since we're on the motte, you should hide that stuff on first few dates lol).
Lastly, once you actually start going on dates here's my final advice. Like I said earlier, failure rate is very high and you should expect most dates to not work out, but still make the best of them. And you do that by going in with minimal expectations. My favorite thing to do is doing some kind of activity that I was going to do anyway. New exhibition at the museum? Get a quick bite then go see the exhibition. That way I kill two birds with one stone, have a date and visit the museum. Even if the date goes bad, at least I visited the exhibition I wanted to see anyway. Any other mindset would have me stressing because 'OMG I'm about to go out with potentially my future wife I gotta put my best foot down and be on my best behavior', but that just puts way too much unnecessary pressure, so I just treat it like a hangout with a friend. Don't take this advice too far, you still gotta flirt and show interest, otherwise the girl will not get the spark or feel like you're not into her but don't worry about this too much because dealing with that will come with experience
raakaa
2hr ago
FWIW, I didn’t bring those numbers up to make some point like “my side could beat your side in a civil war”, like a schoolboy going “my dad could beat up your dad”. I was trying to say that targeting 50% of the population creates conditions of total war far more than targeting 1% of the population.
The context of OP's comment didn't involve considering academics in a vacuum, but measured up against a conservative majority.
When considered in strict relation to each other, there's definitely a fact of the matter when it comes to quality.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
2hr ago
let alone subverted the law on behalf of another Jew.
This is the part I was specifically referring to - Tom is the "another Jew" in question. This is what I objected to - it doesn't matter what ethnicity Tom is (based solely on name and physiognomy he really does seem like one of those fake russian jews anyway) - what matters is that he's highly involved in the government of Israel. A zionist, someone manifestly devoted to ensuring the continuity of the state of Israel, intervening on behalf of a high-ranking individual in the state of Israel, is a serious issue and would remain a serious issue even if Tom was ethnically Japanese. Reducing it to a matter of ethnicity as opposed to direct political allegiance makes his argument weaker, which is what I was concerned with.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
3hr ago
Worried about? Ha. Ha ha.
Any plan which relies on our state Democrats is probably less effective than shooting myself. At least with that strategy, I’d reduce our share of the next census.
Gerrymandering every four years instead of every ten is obviously not the end of democracy. It’s just another thing made shittier to score a couple points in the here and now. You’d think I might be used to it by now.
PokerPirate
3hr ago
Arguing over the definition of "lawyer-brained" is about the most lawyer-brained thing there is. I legitimately can't tell if you're trying to satirize yourself here. Either way, I love it.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
3hr ago
Look, I’d absolutely prefer a norm of independent redistricting. Sweep away the decades of bullshit. Make everyone fight for their seats.
Divorcing redistricting from the census is going in the wrong direction. It is strictly worse to have the winners of each election clamoring to entrench their lead. But Trump and Newsom think they can score some points by mashing the big Defect button, so that’s what we get. It’s like calling a snap election. It’s chicanery.
If a party gets too strong, and too unrepresentative, people will successfully organize to take it down a notch.
Gerrymandering is sustainable in the sense it's not a catastrophic disruption to the function of government. It is still less than ideal. Safe seats lead to more important primaries which leads to more important primary voters. Primary voters skew radical, older, and more influenced by interests. It is poorly representative practice, but not in any positive "the King knows best" sort of way.
The pendulum is a comforting idea. It's also not an Iron Law of democracy. Political machines entrench themselves and last much longer than they should because people don't successfully organize to take them down a notch. Chicago has been poorly governed by a political machine for a long time. I consider competition closer to an Iron Law of Good in democracy, and gerrymandering reduces it.
That said, if we want to stop arguing about gerrymandering we need a new system. I'd choose a limited form of proportional representation for the house. Limit the number of parties represented with thresholds to preclude 1% parties. I don't know how other places do that, but pick whatever is the best I'm sure it's easy. Keep the senate as is to preserve the contract of the Union. Oh, I guess we have to start by killing all current representatives to not slow or obstruct the reform process. Tree of liberty, etc.
TitaniumButterfly
3hr ago
There are worlds in books, and I care to return to visit some of those on occasion. Why ever re-visit a place you've traveled when there are other places?
I think we have been trained to associate the word 'hate' with low status, by people who have much to gain from our reflexive aversion to it. Those whom we should hate, i.e.
Ademonera
3hr ago
Thank you for the thoughtful response. Agreed that arguing from the perspective of what you would find compelling makes sense, as it's the only way to find the real weak points.
On Point 1, your proposed solution is interesting. That idea of a negotiated peace is pragmatic. It frames the problem as a failure of mutually assured destruction and suggests restoring it. If people saw that bad behavior was being addressed universally instead of just selectively, they might actually buy into the system again. However, I think the cat is out of the bag now. The decadent 2010s seem to have ruined any chance of this working. The 90s feel like the last time there was a real effort towards a color-blind society where character matters most. Things are too tribal for that to work nowadays. There are literally advanced degrees for studying how persecuted X group is. We get worked up over unfair treatment of our own group and are convinced other groups are getting away with it / getting a better deal, generally speaking.
On point 2, it seems we’re in agreement. These ideas have moved from the comment section to the core of the debate. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I feel it’s harder to make progress when the ‘real’ arguments are more antagonistic than Ken Bone saying we can all get along.
On point three, I completely agree that America has/had a unique "secret sauce" for getting things done. My contention is that it's part of a feedback loop. Our culture of ambition creates opportunities, which attracts the world's top talent. That talent reinforces and evolves the culture, starting new companies, creating new norms, and building towards the next thing.
I’m sure it’s been talked to death here but I had a professor in college who talked about how Japan will likely never have a magnificent growth period again because their reluctance to accept immigrants, combined with their demographic cliff, means they're stuck on the sidelines (in terms of real growth at least). They have a productive culture, but they're starved of new talent.
I visited Guangzhou about 10 years ago and saw the opposite problem. Their immigrant population comes largely from very poor areas in Africa. They're treated like second-class citizens, are watched constantly, and frankly, fit Trump’s language about immigrants more than the hard-working people in America. There’s no real chance for them to work hard, integrate, and have their kids become strong citizens.
That's why I think our system is so special and powerful. We have the culture that Japan lacks the people for and we offer the opportunity that China denies to its immigrants. We have the ability to give people a chance to join our hard-working culture and succeed. When we send signals that they're no longer welcome, I feel we're choosing to break the most powerful engine for prosperity the world has ever known
netstack
Texas is freedom land
3hr ago
Once you fire this spray of plutonium salts, it keeps going till it hits something. That can be a ship, or the planet behind that ship. It might go off into deep space and hit somebody else in ten thousand years. If you pull the throttle on this, you're ruining someone's day, somewhere and sometime.
…now get to it.
What an awesome concept, though.
MathWizard
Good things are good
4hr ago
The best partner is both, imo. Half my jokes are silly stupid nonsense (I can't even count the number of times my wife and I have accused each other of being a "Sneef Snorf") and the other half are clever and elaborate constructions designed to sound like something reasonable and/or intelligent until they think about it for several moments and untangle the hidden meaning: which turns out to be silly stupid nonsense. I once wrote a two page short story with seemingly arbitrary fantasy and fairy tale features all to build up to the conclusion which was a sentence consisting of weird typos my wife (then girlfriend) had sent me while drunk the previous night.
I suppose someone less intelligent could still have appreciated the goof, but probably not to the same extent. Or wouldn't have taken the teasing in as much fun, as part of the embarrassment at her misspelling is because she ordinarily spells things correctly while sober. And someone less intelligent probably wouldn't have been able to respond to my hack MSPaint "photoshops" of our cat's head onto movie characters with an even higher quality photoshop of her own. And someone who took themselves seriously just wouldn't have appreciated the goofs at all.
You need both.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
4hr ago
The tiger is an active threat. The deer is not. Hate walls off the vile spark that spares the foe. And if you were at risk of starving, I bet you'd muster up the courage to hate that deer - for your family's sake.
madeofmeat
4hr ago
There's a good Nick Land essay about this where he argues that space exploration is really about planetary disassembly by posthuman intelligences rather than domestead frontier LARPing. But the true vision can't be sold to the voters and politicians since it's too Nietzschean. Alas I cannot find it.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
'Not very smart' in the sense of unexceptional or in the sense of actually retarded? Like they are two different things.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
and organize with state Democrats to undermine Republican rule by adopting a more Texan-palatable local platform
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
I've heard less realistic jokes, but not many. Texas democrats exist to expend out of state donor money on various retarded bullshit, not to win elections.
That's what my brief look-up said, and it also said what I mentioned, e.g. that this is not a clinical term.
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