domain:astralcodexten.substack.com
PutAHelmetOn
Recovering Quokka
8m ago
Yes. I've noticed this for awhile. Im mostly a lurker, and an occasional commenter. I've found the top level threads dreadfully uninteresting and way too long, for awhile now, maybe a year? You can tell when the post gives itself it's own b bold little title as if it'll get a place in the vault.
Lately I've found the small question thread and fun thread to be more, well, fun.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
45m ago
Party leader Eric Ciotti is squarely on the conservative side which is more popular with the base, while his lieutenants are on the liberal side. A high-low vs middle configuration if you will.
As a result of the dissolution, Ciotti announced an alliance with the RN. This immediately lit the fires of rebellion.
His lieutenants unanimously moved to remove him from the party over this. However he ignored the decision, saying it was illegal and barricaded himself at the seat of the party.
Hey hey hey, you're not supposed to be making DECISIONS here. You're supposed to be the disreputable figurehead who attracts the base while we respectable people set the policies.
zeke5123a
1hr ago
A couple of responses:
- Let’s just caveat that the reason we have disparate outcome is solely related to HBD—not saying that is true but thought experiment. If we as a society deem that conclusion out of bounds and have a desire to provide equal treatment, then after we continue to try to equalize by removing other impediments but get no farther (because the problem isn’t equal treatment but unequal talent) people will have to either accept the out of bounds conclusion or will adopt a god of the gaps approach to unequal treatment. Maybe they’d call it systemic racism. Maybe they’d start putting a massive thumb on the scale for certain populations and cause real societal harm (as jobs aren’t just spoils).
Now this is obviously slightly tongue in cheek but I am making an earnest point. I do think there are other things we can and should do (eg blacks didn’t always have super high single family rates). But a belief in tabooing HBD will have a kind of “false” Noticing effect. If we could just taboo the whole discussion on disparate impact on different populations maybe it would be more optimal but who knows.
- I agree that maybe sometimes where costs are low fairness matters. But for example if it’s late at night and I see a group of young blacks walking in my direction I’m going to put a lot of effort in getting into a safe place. Probably wouldn’t if it was a group of Asian teen girls. This is in one sense unfair. But the potential cost to me is high to outweigh the fairness. On the other hand, if I am interviewing a black candidate and an Asian female candidate I’m going to try to be complete impartial and see how they can handle tough interview questions.
omfalos
1hr ago
What are the odds for Rassemblement National to win a majority in the National Assembly?
Great post (as always--you're a great contributor, which I think you know, but which bears repeating).
Young Mormon men seem to have no issue marrying chaste(ish) pretty blondes who will vote for Romney and deliver 3-4 children, because that’s their milieu. Too often some chubby suburban secular engineer whose primary hobbies are video games and online political discussion thinks he deserves the same.
To further elaborate on this point--young Mormon men also seem to have no issue marrying a reasonable match. Some years ago a Mormon colleague invited me to his son's wedding reception. The bride was obese; the groom, a NEET. The groom's father said "she's a nice girl. I wouldn't say she's a great catch but let's be honest, neither is he." But he had done a Mormon mission trip and she had the right social attitudes. Now they've been married maybe 15 years, no kids (fertility issues). Neither ever completed college, they both do gig work to scrape by with the help of their parents (they're in their 40s now!). They have dreams and goals they're unlikely to ever achieve, but they have a common social milieu, and they're clearly better off supporting one another than they would be as atomized incels.
It's not a life I'd want, but I have to remind myself--it's the kind of life most people get. Most people don't even get a bachelor's degree. Most people aren't particularly attractive. If we reserve the "good life" for "high value" people, things are going to get real bleak, real quick. But without the social support structures encouraging men and women to accept a good match, rather than always "marrying up," that's where we're headed.
Lewis2
2hr ago
Have any of you noticed flocks of Kennedy supporters gathering ballot access signatures over the past couple of weeks in your areas? In my midwestern city, the streets are teeming with them—one every couple of blocks downtown and one darned near every 50 feet in the major parks. It’s an impressive operation, only slightly marred by some similar tactics to those laid out here. Not one, for example, has mentioned Kennedy’s name when asking me to sign. Their approach is always “Will you sign to ensure ballot access for the Independent party this coming November?” You have to actually read the petition to figure out it’s for Kennedy.
beefypo
2hr ago
Yes, "stereotyping" was probably the wrong word for the concept I had in mind, "discrimination" is probably a better term. And by discriminate, I mean - to infer something about an individual based on the base rate characteristics of a group identity that he/she belongs to. I am interested in when, and when not, it is okay to discriminate.
I will return to the dark road example, I apologize if you think it is a bad faith argument but I think it is illustrative. In the days following the man/bear meme question, I saw many women say that they would much rather run into a woman rather than a man if walking alone in the woods because the risk of physical/sexual assault is higher with a man. This was considered good/smart/wise risk assessment as this perception is based in reality and backed by crime statistics. It was not considered sexist to treat this individual man based on the statistics of his group (men).
Now compare the same scenario except swap in asian man / black man. We apply the same statistical reasoning yet now it is considered unacceptable and racist. Can you explain why?
The other examples I listed in my previous comment were included merely to point out additional instances where it seems okay to discriminate. I could of course list many more where it is not. I remain unclear on what the underlying principles/rules are for how society arrives at this determination.
BahRamYou
2hr ago
Only saw the first season of the boys. But, on a somewhat related note- I just went back to try read Ward, the sequel to Worm, the superhero fic that went viral about 10 years ago.
Ugh. What a huge drop in quality. Worm was fun, visceral, exciting. Ward feels neutered, like the author has been battered by internet critics and is trying so very hard to avoid offending anyone. I keep waiting for something to happen and nothing does, they just go to therapy and talk about how bad the evil christian cult is.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
2hr ago
There's a small remigration wave, about 15% of the initial wave, but all three of my male cousins that GTFO'd out of Russia are remaining abroad, even though only one of them has a job that pays well.
Quantumfreakonomics
2hr ago
Prerat (@Prerationalist) posts multiple bangers a week. I have no idea why he hasn't gone viral yet.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
3hr ago
I'm getting back on XTwitter. What are some good meme accounts with high brow humor?
Also interested in following religious/spiritual stuff, maybe some light politics, and tech/investing news.
TheDag
Per Aspera ad Astra
3hr ago
What are your fathers day traditions?
And a hearty congratulations/sympathy too all the fathers out there.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
3hr ago
What’s up with Russians who fled abroad at the start of the war nowadays? It looks pretty certain at this point that they won’t be conscripted and Russia won’t go bankrupt anytime soon. Has there been a silent remigration wave or are they just stay put in Georgia/Turkey/Kazakhstan wherever now
Walterodim
Only equals speak the truth, that’s my thought on’t
3hr ago
I like it! This is excellent elaboration on the shorter summary of the court I had back at the beginning of the year. I think the model I lay out there continues to work pretty well with what we're seeing in rulings, particularly in the two split decisions from Friday. In Campos, I'm sure Gorsuch was very excited to contemplate the possibility of a conjunctive "or".
Crowstep
3hr ago
I'd argue that in the developed world, nobody has any gains to be made. We've removed lead from gasoline, famine and malnutrition are distant memories. In terms of IQ, we've picked all the low-hanging fruit. If there was a way to actually increase a child's IQ beyond avoiding stressors like malnutrition or poisoning, the tiger mothers and educational establishment would have found it by now.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
4hr ago
I remember when they got him to review the new Escalade because he was the yankeeboo. The size mismatch was comical, to say the least.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
4hr ago
I can tell when people are talking, but usually not when they're singing.
Cute girls in libertarian sci-fi worked out for Devon Erikson, it could work for you too. I am also sad that 'methfueledinsaneloli' is not a widely used tag.
KingOfTheBailey
5hr ago
It might be stronger in recent years, where pushing "the message" became much more of a thing in entertainment, but the anti-mutant Senator Kelly was created in 1980 and appeared in the 1990s X-Men animated series. (Because you've listed X-Men alongside BvS, Marvel, etc., I'm guessing you're thinking more of the 2000s Fox movies, or possibly the recent X-Men '97.)
2rafa
6hr ago
Yeah, great post. If you want a hot, relatively chaste, young, smart right-leaning woman, that’s not impossible, but you better be the equivalent of that as a man, namely a successful, attractive, charming, relatively young guy who probably has similar values, which in the case of chastity is likely some kind of religious conservatism. Young Mormon men seem to have no issue marrying chaste(ish) pretty blondes who will vote for Romney and deliver 3-4 children, because that’s their milieu. Too often some chubby suburban secular engineer whose primary hobbies are video games and online political discussion thinks he deserves the same.
Hot young people are in no short supply, and some substantial subsection of that group (assuming nothing truly weird or ambitious) likely meets anyone’s individual extra standards. But you have to make sure you’re part of that group, and you’re where the young people are (NYC, SF, LA, etc) and that you have things to offer that they want, too.
A 35 year old average looking guy of average means probably isn’t going to marry a 23 year old conservative trad virgin. If that’s the blackpill @faceh was talking about then, sure, it’s real. But at that point the unlikelihood of winning the lottery is a blackpill, and so is a peasant girl realizing she’s unlikely to marry the prince. If you’re in your thirties as a man you have to accept you missed the first wave of pairings (and arguably the second) and likely (unless extremely hot or successful) have to make do with women for whom the same is true. That’s no great injustice.
How many are single, heterosexual, haven't had kids already, are not grossly overweight, are not riddled with mental disorders, don't have a huge bodycount or any Onlyfans, and are actually interested in having and raising kids in a committed, monogamous relationship.
If you’re middle class, live in the downtown core (rather than fat suburbs) of a major coastal city and are under 30 and dating under 30 year old women then…yeah, there are a pretty large number of these women, tens or hundreds of thousands of them depending on where you are. Certainly enough not to ‘give up’.
I'm asking for a quantification of how many women out there are actually likely to pass the filter.
The honest answer is "I have no clue" we're talking about people's intimate relationships, and I just don't have that much insight into them. But going by what I was able to see, the odds are pretty good, like, in the neighborhood of 100%. I've seen a militant feminist bending over backwards for a 5/10, mildly successful autist who just fell out of love with her, and ended up breaking up, I've seen another psy-op herself into tolerating infidelity / polyamory / wtf it they were calling it, I've seen successful "I can fix her" stories. Now, I'm not saying ~100% of women are marriage material, but I just haven't seen a case where the "gynosupremacy" was the reason for a relationship to fall apart.
DPRK news used to be more active, but was dedicated to hilarious fake North Korean propaganda.
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