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Which correlation do you suspect might be spurious?

Assuming female hypergamy, in higher functioning circles you'd expect there to be more relatively lower functioning women. Lower functioning men can't make it to the circles and if they do are not tolerated for long. Low functioning men are detonating their relationships in the trailer park.

People centering their personality around religion is an old, old phenomenon, and while often seen as annoying, it is very much something that society knows how to deal with.

The median outcome of beginning the exorcism process is ‘you’re imagining it, go see a mental health specialist. We can provide a list of catholic psychologists and psychiatrists sorted by gender if you’d like’.

Perhaps the attention paid to the male loneliness crisis is due to the fact that it manifests as societal wide problems, whereas female loneliness just results in shut-ins posting on private tumblrs to a circle of cheerleaders waiting their turn at the podium.

For a real life example, spend time browsing 4chan vs crystal cafe.

I mean, far-right brain rot seems very big on self-improvement stuff even if some of their specific prescriptions are a bit dumb. I wonder how much of it is, specifically, that the hit the gym and cut out seed oils and start a business stuff protects men(there is a negligible number of actual women into this stuff) with rightward leanings from spiraling the way progressives do.

Wild speculation but I think accidental incidental pregnancy in the days before birth control plus getting shepherded into the workforce at a younger age probably helped mitigate a fair bit of the natural trend towards assholing. Also prior to women entering the workforce there was more of an impetuous to atleast present a pretense of meekness and agreeability in order to escape the household.

You briefly alluded to a system of culture classification i haven't heard of (cavellier, border). Where does it come from?

Speaking for myself: Getting shredded from thighs to feet by trying to jump a barbed wire fence (and failing). Being glassed in a bar fight. Intestinal cramps from ulcerative colitis which literally made me vomit and pass out from literal pain for the only time in my life. Getting a healthy tooth removed by an old school dentist back in the day, while just on laughing gas. Migraines when I was younger, used to take me out completely for a few hours.

A kick in the balls hurts, but it's mostly over in a few minutes, unless you are very unlucky and rupture something I suppose.

Yeah or if they are gonna come it's more going to be about solving the dating app metagame than simply hustling on making yourself a productive member of society.

Women are going to connect with something. And, well, social media influencers are like that.

Gonna join in on the chorus of "I would" hah.

Itinérant laborers exist. The roustabout class is declining, but it’s still there. There’s men, trucked up from not Mexico but the countries south of there, who will come do whatever for cash- no particular skills, but they’ll work until it’s time to start drinking. There’s people a bit like your friend. There’s homeless guys who alternate between working some minor, low-skill job(painting or the like) and doing drugs under a bridge.

This reminds me of one of my grandpa’s top pieces of advice- life’s too short to make enemies.

Then again, he also recommends eating an unhealthy diet to avoid having to deal with senility.

I have my perspective on this, but nobody is worried about my ingroup’s fertility rate except my ingroup. So what I’ll say is this- you clearly are going to keep working yourself up with worry until you just go ahead and have another baby.

When the OpenAI engineers quit the company because it wouldn't slow down for safety, they didn't shoot the remaining employees, instead they created a competitor to sprint faster with the belief that if they reach AGI first, it'll be better aligned for humanity.

To be clear, I'm in favour of co-ordinated meanness on this one - government action. I've exhaustively considered the possibilities of terrorism and with the exception of a certain harebrained scheme which requires nuclear weapons (and good luck getting those as a terrorist), the maths doesn't work out. No single point of failure, awareness raising of the mere idea is unnecessary*, and that leaves you with "terrorism only makes sense if it can be sustained over a period of time" which the Rats can't (and especially can't on a global scale).

I was initially using the metaphor of the USA in a race with other countries; by "shoot them" I meant war. Nuclear war if necessary, but as noted I'm optimistic about the possibility of getting the nuclear powers on board.

Anthropic's actions I model as a combination of lower P(Doom), self-overestimation, greater tolerance for Doom (Silicon Valley tends to attract risk-tolerant types), and most importantly "it's really important to be careful what you get good at".

*Take the climate soup-throwers as an example. They'd be of use if nobody'd heard of global warming. But people have heard of global warming, they (including me) just disagree with the soup-throwers' opinion that it's an X-risk requiring major action RTFN, and throwing soup is not going to convince people of that. Likewise, there have been enough "AI rebellion" films that that kind of terrorism is not really useful (and TBH public opinion is already pretty strongly against AI).

Do we do false dichotomies here, or do we do false dichotomies here?

It hurts, alright, but it's nowhere near the most painful thing I endure for the kid's sake.

I genuinely have no idea how that can be the case. Getting hit in the balls is the most painful thing I've ever experienced, bar none. Even if you find it to be worth it, what the heck is more painful?

Rape and extreme health risks with regards to abortion are some of the clearest examples of motte-and-bailey arguments I know of. The best way to spot a motte-and-bailey argument is to see if the person is satisfied if you were to grant them the motte. In this case, imagine abortion was 100% completely legal up to any point in the pregnancy for rape cases and for significantly higher health risk than usual pregnancies, and 100% illegal for family planning purposes. If necessary, imagine an omniscient arbiter were able to make sure no rape victim gets dismissed and no one could get away with falsely claiming rape just to get an abortion.

I think a majority of pro-life people would be overjoyed. Even though they might have preferred a full ban, what they want, to save what they percieve as life, is in accordance with the arguments they put forth, so any decrease is good. Pro-choice people would be almost uniformly against, because extreme cases like rape and risky pregnancies are not the reason they are pro-choice, family planning is (but it's a harder sell, especially to family and duty minded conservatives). So in that case, guaranteeing absolutely no rape victim or no risky pregnancy is forced to term is not worth giving up on family planning.

*EDIT: In fact, I suspect that they would be unhappy in ways they could not reasonably explain themselves if full right to abortion were granted to rape and high medical risk cases on top of current compromises. Truthfully because they could not then use these as a shield to expand family planning rights, but I can easily imagine half-assed excuses as to why the medical establishment (or the omniscient arbiter) has no right to judge whether a woman has really been raped, only she can know!

Men go to war knowing that many will die, but fewer would if the purpose was to die for sure. I assume it's likewise with sports - there are none I know of where you must stand there and take the nut shot with no protection or dodging allowed.

I had an ex-boss who said childbirth must be less painful than getting kicked in the balls because no one chooses to get kicked in the balls twice.

Your ex-boss’s comment, which if even in jest, suggests an amusing ignorance of the concept of tradeoffs.

I don’t recall the number for kicks specifically, but I have been struck in the balls multiple times as a teenager and young adult playing sports (kicks, knees, elbows, the… ball… itself, etc.) but chose to continue playing sports each time only for it to happen again some time later. I didn’t even get a kid out of each ball-smashing.

I suppose if the POSIWID, then the purpose of sports is to get smashed in the balls.

I think that's normal. Right? It's normal for every day to be an MMA cage fight against a little monkey.

Were you also a little MMA monkey, long ago?

Turns out that it's normal for your kids to be like little mixtures of how you and your spouse were as kids, rather than for them to be like kids in general.

That sounds banally obvious when I put it into words, but before I had kids I'd never really put it into words, so I never thought of myself as a person who would end up really liking kids. Turns out that, although I still don't especially like kids in general, I really like my wife and I really like myself so I really like my kids in particular. As a slightly-less-obvious bonus, it turns out that kids make friends more readily with other kids who they have things in common with, so I like all my kids' friends and I really like most of them.

My son would never have kicked me in the balls, but he will gleefully launch a massive suicidal invasion against my in-first-place-until-then Civilization V nation, thereby distracting me long enough to let my wife win our family game while he gloats, which I guess is the nerd version of a balls-kicking (I don't think I've ever won one of our family Civ V games...). But because it's the nerd version I feel proud rather than upset. Even when he shows me up at sports, it's popular-among-nerds sports like rock climbing and "ninja" obstacle courses that he gravitates to.

I know exactly zero men who would choose to get kicked in the balls even once to have a child

I'm also a counterexample here. Personally I thought that the months of sleep deprivation during newborn care were worse than a more-acute-but-more-brief testicular injury (which I haven't suffered since I was a teen, thankfully), but each of the kids were still a net positive before they turned 1. Maybe I've just never taken a hard enough hit to the balls.

But he's been at it for nearly two decades, and it seems unlikely that he has been saving for retirement. He can't pick pineapples (or whatever) in Hawaii forever. Can he?

The man's expenses are probably near zero. Between savings and social security he may be ahead of the modal silicon valley striver living paycheck to paycheck between mortgage, property taxes, and private school.

This is an interesting comparison although I instinctively find the comparison to war (evil that is only sometimes a necessary evil) to be repellent. But I suppose pregnancy and labor could also be considered a necessary evil and we have all gotten acclimated to ignoring the evil part.

Whatever you choose, it's not on you to make the world a better place. It's only on you to do what is reasonable. That's all it means, to live a life of choice and value.

I am still chewing on this and still not convinced I agree (but I'm also not certain I'm understanding you correctly).

Are you saying that to live a valuable life you need to only do what is "reasonable" as in the bare minimum of not harming others? Or "reasonable" as in "make the world a better place but you can spend moderate/reasonable costs and don't have to spend severe/unreasonable costs"?

It's still begging the question.