domain:natesilver.net
hydroacetylene
1d ago
The Joe Rogan base will either forget about this in a month or write it off as 'Trump is no Bush, he drops bombs and leaves, no ground war'. The strike is probably insanely popular among everyone else- nuclear nonproliferation and boo Iran are both pretty popular, and there's no boots on the ground here.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I'm not sure why Iran getting a nuclear weapon is such a disaster. Like, bad, yes. Saudi Arabia would nuclearize pretty much immediately and Turkey probably wouldn't be too far behind, and that means Ukraine and Taiwan, maybe Egypt too, would probably take it as permission, and...
But the Iranian leaders aren't actually insane and Iran is uninvadable anyways. Pakistan and North Korea haven't used their nukes; they're expensive dick-measuring contests that deter ground invasion and not something which even nutsy regimes would use in anger.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
1d ago
Does she claim those weren't? If she's willing to bite the bullet and say "it was a problem when Obama and Biden did it too" then there's no problem. I certainly would agree with her in that case; the constitution is quite explicit that Congress is to be the one authorizing war.
WhateverHappenedToNorman
1d ago
50% of men lose some hair by 50.
That percentage seems surprisingly low. My hair genetics are probably very good (top 10% of pretty much all people I know), and I have definitely noticed some slight recession in my thirties. Perhaps I'm more neurotic about it than the average interviewee of this study.
No_one
1d ago
I dare say that militaries are not going to 'vibe code' their networks, or if they do that they're going to continually run automated AI hacking attempts at it in order to find all possible exploits and patch them.
Crowstep
1d ago
You don't need to know who is pushing something to notice it's being pushed
If you're positing a worldwide, decades long conspiracy to fabricate or exaggerate a genocide that never happened, then yes you need to actually say who (specifically) is pushing it and how they are doing so. Otherwise all you're doing is noticing that millions of eyewitnesses and all serious historians agree that the Holocaust happened, and that many government censor its denial, without actually demonstrating the conspiracy you're positing.
but you should probably not trust the survivor's testimony too much
ThisIsSin
Cainanites and Abelists
1d ago
SomethingAwful was never my jam BECAUSE it thrived on the malice.
It's also why I can't tolerate Kiwifarms or rdrama (or Tumblr, or to a point Twitter); those places don't function without it. Honestly I don't find 4chan to have really gone hard over (though that's arguably true of /pol/ and... was probably the reason moot came down on the anti-Gamergate side, though it would cost him everything); what I think happened is that the population declined and you don't have as many teens and twentysomethings to attract in the first place (and media standards rose- it's hard to rip something off when you don't have effective tools to produce that thing at scale). That, and the Moral Majority (which was in significant part a SomethingAwful creation) hadn't evolved into its present state yet, so being a moralfag wasn't as attractive a thing for the teens yet.
I've always loved edgy subversive humor... that wasn't entirely built on malicious intent.
Well... it's childish. To be adult is to know that speaking about sacred topic X is always and definitionally bad, and to ensure that anyone who does is cancelled. People can be childish in some ways but adult in others. When you have an adult that's basically just a big child things get a bit more interesting.
You have to do it completely earnestly [again, like a child would, but by no means their exclusive domain]. Gamejolt is a good place to find games like this (if you're really bored, try out Five Night's at Fuckboys for that mid-2000s Newgrounds feel- there are 3 of them, and they are legitimately very good) that speak to this particular style.
That whole "unburdened by what has been" thing is a right the moralfags claim from time to time, but because at the end of the day they are people of malice, it's not theirs to exercise. (That is why they are called 'moralfags' in the first place.)
I think a factor in depression comes from having a soul like this but not being able to express it for some or other reason, but that's unique to people like this in the first place and not generally applicable.
anti_dan
1d ago
I'm surprised how much political capital he was willing to spend on this.
I'd like to hear the case that this was actually significant political capital. Democrats were already flipping out (Fetterman excluded) over Trump's failure to stop Israel from bombing Iran and continuing to conduct effective operations in Gaza. So they are already on team Hamas/Iran and not on team Israel/MidEast stability. This strike was just a logical move along the route of letting Israel win all the wars we'd otherwise have to fight if they got wiped out, and from time to time we lend some aid.
EdenicFaithful
Dark Wizard of Ravenclaw
1d ago
So, what are you reading?
I'm adding Hall and Stead's A People's History of Classics to my list. Definitely the most interesting open access find I've made.
Tiber727
1d ago
Right. This is perhaps not the perfect example, but it would be something like "Does the Second Amendment guarantee the right to own grenades or fighter jets?" Originalism would try to focus on whether the founders would consider it one had it existed in said time (though it can be manipulated to cherry pick the founder you agree with). Textualism is "Death of the Author" and would say that if they meant for it to mean X they should have written it into the law. Living Constitution would say that the founders are dead and would choose the interpretation they believe is most beneficial in modern day.
self_made_human
C'est la vie
1d ago
I don't see why they wouldn't work, but you'd be stretching out the transplanted follicles to cover a lot more surface area.
I don't recall running into any studies, but I think it's just an observed fact that's not really in question. It would be good to know the numbers though!
oats_son
1d ago
Interesting, I thought hair transplants didn't really work once you're a norwood 7. It would probably cost an insane amount of money at that stage, at least.
I wonder what the statistics are on how averse women are to going for their less lucky counterparts while single.
mr_bailey
1d ago
Things could get weird. The US (and North America as a whole) are net oil producers these days. Shutting off the gulf is such a large shock to the system you could see some pretty significant price divergence and shortages between regions as infrastructure limits could prevent fully arbitraging the difference. You could also see political impediments to price balancing as well (wouldn't put it past Trump to ban oil exports to keep US prices in check even if it's a huge blow to our allies) and most Canadian crude has to transit the US to reach the world markets. You could even see divergence in the US where West Coast is more exposed then East coast due to Jone's Act restrictions making it difficult to move oil around the Rockies.
I'm old enough to remember the chest-thumping that happened when Trump dropped a MOAB on ISIS (we do love our acronyms, don't we folks?).
Also when he iced Soleimani.
And when they spent like a week celebrating that dog that helped kill an ISIS leader.
He damn well knows that inflicting a black eye on international opponents without getting your own people killed plays well.
Even OBAMA knew this, hence the fanfare around taking out Bin Laden.
And he's also making a number of his opponents run cover for Iran directly.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
I know quite a few normie republicans in meatspace that are now sitting the midterms out and won't vote for him though, but that is just a single anecdote.
The midterms are far away. Prolonged involvement will tank trump. But a no-fly zone over iran that is manned by Israel, funded by Saudi Arabia and US just selling fuel and munitions and repairs to Israel probably won't.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
1d ago
I did remember it, but I was talking about post-2021. The claim a lot of people are making on this site which I disagree with is that there has been a recent increase in political violence.
veqq
1d ago
mass minority uprising against the Persians
Azeris staff most of the government, presidents, generals, ayatollahs etc. There is no racial animosity here.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
They didn't have a grassroots Wahhabist movement because Wahhabism is Sunni and they're Shiite. They did have a popular Islamic revolution which resulted in the current regime.
remzem
1d ago
Maybe, it's hard to tell these days with online spaces often being echo-chambers. I know quite a few normie republicans in meatspace that are now sitting the midterms out and won't vote for him though, but that is just a single anecdote. The polling for involvement in Iran was incredibly bad, worse than Ukraine. It'll be difficult for the dems to capitalize on given their shift to liberal interventionism and continued support for the Ukraine war at least.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
(Arguably, the US paid a tremendous indirect toll, as all the resources they earmarked for the Manhattan project would otherwise have gone into mundane military equipment which would have saved the lives of their soldiers
Like what really?
American industry provided almost two-thirds of all the Allied military equipment produced during the war: 297,000 aircraft, 193,000 artillery pieces, 86,000 tanks and two million army trucks. In four years, American industrial production, already the world's largest, doubled in size.
American soldiers stationed in the pacific used airplanes to churn ice cream (mount on the wing use some kind of RAM turbine to stir, fly high for one hour), and they converted the excess ships into ice cream supplies for the fleet.
remzem
1d ago
That's incredibly short term thinking. If you win a battle but lose the ability to fight the war it's a bad move strategically. Even if this strike wiped out all the mentioned bases it doesn't mean Iran will never be able to make a nuke ever again. Lose the midterms as is incredibly likely and he'll be even more impotent then he is now for any of his domestic policy. This does nothing to reverse Israel's already rapidly declining status in the west. It won't be long before people start questioning why we send them 4 billion a year, how it benefits us to have a rogue parasite state that manipulates our government into war.
faceh
1d ago
I've been a Panthers fan since literally day one. I grew up going to games at least, eh, once a month? 30 years of waiting, a few false hopes, and now we're cruising along as THE team to beat. Surreal. Last year felt like a dream I could wake up from any minute. This year finally makes it all feel real. Can't lie, I would like us to pull off the three-peat and then maybe ease off a bit to let some other teams (not from Canada) have a shot once again.
I'm not really a fan of the 'dirty play' side of things... but at the same time, hockey traditionally gets way more rough than virtually any other sport out there, so you have to let things play out a bit. One guy roughs up your guy, you rough him back. Your star player(s) are targets, so there is a strategic element of protecting them from aggression. As you noted, players get injuries that would get them pulled in most sports, but they slap some bandages on and get back to it.
The one thing I do wish were more honored was "Don't screw with the goalie." Personally I think they should increase the size of the crease by 50% and generally forbid players who don't have puck possession from entering. Or give the goalie a gun.
I would have gone over to the Parade today, but got stuff to do as an adult. Most of my family is out there, though. Its truly great how the league is generally not very stodgy about (non-illegal) player conduct during the off-season, and they let the cup (well, the copy of it that is designated for this purpose) just go with them to celebrate everything.
The sport has truly spoiled me, I can't really get into any other league. I like College Football for sheer chaos, but where else do you get THIS mix of constrained brutality, teamwork, camaraderie, international rivalry, generally gentlemanly behavior during the off-season, and sheer spectacle?
Greatest spectator sport imaginable. It is barely even close.
Death of the Ideal: Godclads Book 2 by OstensibleMammal. Still like Cyber Dreams overall, but by book 4 some of the plot devices were becoming repetitive and one of the major plot threads felt majorly "off" to me so I'm putting that series down for a while.
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