domain:nunosempere.com
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2hr ago
What specifically does he get wrong? What he's asking for is 'lock down all AI labs so they don't leak to China' and 'centralize all AI research under a new Manhattan Project', not to attack anyone unless they look like they're close to pulling ahead.
If AI is super powerful, then logically it becomes super valuable to the big powers. The core of his argument seems pretty sound, provided we accept the technical aspects.
The primary counterarguments I can think of are:
- Openly declaring an arms race with this massive securitization of AGI invites laggard powers to lean more heavily into their own areas of expertise. Superintelligence counters nukes but nukes counter power plants and server farms. Russian semiconductors are woeful but their H-bombs are first rate. They could aim for high-altitude air bursts to disrupt US AI rollout with the EMP.
- US government interference might be counterproductive. There's a certain shortfall in competence in recent USG procurement and development. The Constellation class frigates come to mind. Pentagon IT is infamously bad - https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/28/us_dod_computers/
- Neither Silicon Valley's most cunning tech billionaires nor Washington's most powerhungry bureaucrats are especially trustworthy, even when compared to leading lights in the CCP. A true global partnership would be ideal, albeit almost impossible to organize.
ChickenOverlord
2hr ago
By the third trimester, there will be hundreds of babies inside you.
ChickenOverlord
2hr ago
Kiwi Farms has a good phrase for this sort of thing: rat king. There are a lot of extremely online trans people that all seem to know each other, promote each other, carry water for each other when one is accused of bad behavior, etc.
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
2hr ago
I started lifting as a teen to get big for the girls. Stopped many times in between, always get back because not having discernable muscles as a male looks gross to me. I continue because I like doing the same thing for the 10000th time like an autist, if there is going to be a payoff. Unlike pure entropy curtailing with lifting you can actually get a lead on it.
TIRM
2hr ago
It's a trillion monkeys typing at a trillion typewriters all at the same time, and then the machine reads all of their outputs (quickly) and finds one which looks like it matches your input
But anyways, enough about how human speech works.
More seriously: every time a computer does a seemingly intelligent task, that task is retroactively declared to entirely lack intelligence. Recently this has become increasingly comical as current LLMs sometimes produce insightful outputs """without any intelligence""".
RenOS
Dadder than dad
2hr ago
Unfortunately, IQ is still not supported by any company AFAIK. You can get general health embryo selection to avoid the worst disabilities and reduce the chance of some common diseases, and this will almost surely indirectly benefit general competence as well. But tbh IVF sucks pretty hard, and the tech is still in its infancy. Genomic Prediction/Lifeview afaik has not fundamentally improved its testing since 2022 or so, in fact probably couldn't even if it wanted to at this point unless they do a major reorientation. Orchid I have less info about, but from what I can gather it's at least still improving. Very hard to tell which is better in practice at this point, though I lean towards GP since their publications were generally more technical/in depth. But sometime in the next few years Orchid will probably overtake them.
My usual recommendation is to definitely do embryo selection if you do IVF anyway, definitely do it if you know you're in some kind of high risk group, but if you're neither it depends a lot on how well your wife handles IVF. You can also sequence yourself and your wife beforehand to see what your risk profile is to begin with.
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
2hr ago
Controversial opinion. It's pathetic to care about votes. They are just numbers on a screen. I don't think the motte votes any more consciously or rationally than a mainstream reddit subreddit. They are just agree/disagree buttons. If you post is long and especially detailed, you might flip the script a bit, but that happens on reddit as well.
The metric I use internally is how many responses and sub responses my comments get. And on that front, I think I do somewhat decent.
Ditto6687
2hr ago
Data point: I would much rather prefer CPC dominance. As an EU citizen I am completely unconcerned with them. They never did anything to us, and the US bombed a neighboring country. They might bomb us too if we regained our sovereignty.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
2hr ago
I like the Mayo Clinic's book for the baseline stuff that isn't about biohacking.
TIRM
2hr ago
Nuclear winter is a flawed concept.
Yes. A few years ago I read about the origins of nuclear winter and determined it was entirely fictional. And every time I try to explain that to someone they act like I'm a loon.
TIRM
2hr ago
There's only around 12 thousand nukes in existence, almost all in the US and Russia. They are large heavy objects mounted on huge delivery platforms. Not exactly stealable.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2hr ago
But ours is the only civilization that can contemplate such abstract theoretical questions. We have words like philosophy, evolutionary, heat death of the universe. I'm pretty sure hunter-gatherers don't have that. They don't usually have writing, their language actually is limited to what's directly needed for survival.
I think we industrialized people shouldn't romanticize nomadic or pre-industrial life overly. Much of it would not be to our liking. India and the other poor countries are not enthusiastic about such a lifestyle.
Questions that are irrelevant to contemporary concerns can often be useful - but ideas that cannot possibly be implemented are much less so. Indeed, some knowledge can be harmful. Suppose that it is true, then we'd be forever unsatisfied trying to return to monkey and failing due to competition and coordination problems. Perhaps there'd be more terror groups in the style of Ted. Ignorance can be blissful in certain cases.
CanofWorms
3hr ago
Going to the local pool club as a kid brings back some of my fondest childhood memories. My dad, who was a stay at home father, loved going to the pool. So as kids, we were there probably 2 or 3 times a week. We swam, played cards, jumped off the diving board, grilled, and generally had a great time. Im looking forward to the day when I can enjoy it my from a fathers perspective.
Ioper
3hr ago
I mean... They would have to grow by more than 15% per year, which is well above the growth rate of any Asian tiger, never mind at Polands current gdp. It's also more than twice the growth rate than Poland has ever had...
Hyperion
3hr ago
I'm not saying the current models do original meaningful reasoning. If they could the whole world would be turned upside down and we wouldn't be debating if they could.
I think GPT-20 will be able to do that kind of thing in 50 years, either because all we need is scaling; or, because, we will make some new advance in the underlying architecture.
My point is more that high schoolers don't do meaningful original reasoning either. Monkey see, Monkey do. Most human innovation is just random search that is copied by others.
The fact that this machine is dumb isn't surprising, almost all things are dumb, and most humans are. That it can do anything at all is an innovation that puts all the rest to shame.
It's like being mad the first organism that evolved a proto-neuron or proto-central nervous system can't add 2+2 correctly.
FaibleEstimeDeSoi
4hr ago
anti_dan
4hr ago
I did not know that. I was under the impression his mother's family were mostly Ellis Island era immigrants. But I am interested who is the outlier.
rverghes
4hr ago
I think this is correct on a post level. But reddit-style voting is often used for more than just posts. For example, the score often determines sorting, so high-agreement posts come first and are more likely to be read. Similarly, highly negative posts get hidden from view. Finally, on Reddit, post karma adds up to a total score for the user, which keeps people trying to get a higher score. Not to mention that some subreddits require certain karma levels to post.
It might be interesting to see explicit agree/disagree buttons and then show something like "18 votes, 86% agreement".
drmanhattan16
4hr ago
Even taking your example, there is no clear indication that voting is a good solution. An unpopular argument is just as likely, if not moreso, to get downvoted than one that is maximally annoying.
But again, you don't have to engage. There is no limit on the bits available in the site. No one is getting their comments deleted if some people choose to post in bad faith the way you describe.
drmanhattan16
4hr ago
Why don't you like the upvote/downvote systems?
I hate that people use them as a means of enforcing what opinions are considered good or bad. I have very rarely downvoted, only doing so if I think a user is not actually trying to contribute to the thread, even if their opinions are unacceptably vile. Letting people indulge their desire to indicate a position's popularity is bad, doubly so for a platform meant to move us past shady thinking.
But a need to engage less is not actually an argument against voting.
It's an argument against fast forms of engagement, which you agree that voting is.
Just because you have ceased to cater to / platform / respond to someone, does not mean that person has ceased to exist.
No doubt. The question is whether a a person should be catered or responded to.
HalloweenSnarry
4hr ago
It might be mostly the second, thinking about it for a few seconds. Just what kind of personality type does it take to seriously want to use a nuke in terrorism (is it some sort of extreme misanthrope, someone whose political convictions are second at best to the nihilistic urge of "kill 'em all"?), and how many of that kind of person does it take to pull off a terror-nuke plot?
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
4hr ago
Retvrn. Industrial civilization collapses at a global level. Humanity returns to the original affluent society, with the depletion of easily accessible hydrocarbons preventing complex civilization from ever re-emerging.
Complex civilization emerged without easy access to hydrocarbons - Sumer, Babylon, Egypt, China, Japan, Rome etc. You can have some pretty sophisticated and complex civilization powered solely by renewable resources. You can't have our incredibly wasteful modern society, but that doesn't mean you don't get complex civilization.
How can you prevent segregation and why would you do it?
I was spurred to ask this question by this article and especially this paragraph where author builds logical sequence connecting segregation with various social ills:
"These segregated schools ruined children's educational and economic opportunities. They achieved much less academically. Because of this segregation, many more dropped out. Many fewer went to colleges. Those that did were disproportionately likely to enroll in less rigorous institutions, like for-profit community colleges. Because of this segregation, they earned lower incomes as adults. They were more likely to end up in jail. Their health was worse. In the end, these 100,000 are much more likely than their peers to emerge as the most economically disadvantaged members of society — whereupon the cycle will likely repeat with their own children."
Author doesn't spell out what is the main cause here but we can guess. It can't be money related issues, because they could be solved without integration with a different tax scheme. It can't be some institutional racism cause he does provide examples of black charter and views them as failures. No, in my understanding the single most useful benefit that black children lose out here is diversity in itself. Obviously there is a question of white and asian kids faring pretty fine without it and also the counterargument along the lines of DR slogan "you don't have right to a white people", but let's accept their premise as true. There are after all many instrumental benefits to your populace not being concentrated into the ethnic enclaves, assimilation is useful and if Romans could do it with the Gauls why American can't. What you can do to integrate schools once and for all?
The solution preferred by author - the repeat of the policies of forced integration doesn't work in the context of liberal democracy with freedom of movement and widespread desire to avoid "bad" schools i.e. schools with poor black people in them. 60s policies just kicked the can down the road and led to the white flight. Modern one that tries to do the same will end up similarly, maybe with much stark division in the end.
Successful desegregation should make resegregation not illegal but not desirable or simple. In the search of the solution, I think it's wise to try to emulate post-soviet conditions, because despite large immigration from much poorer countries generally Russian cities were resistant to segregation, the most ethnic districts in Moscow range from 20 to 50 percent of immigrants and not for the lack of them. What causes this? Multi floor apartments/soviet block housing allows for diverse quality and quantity of housing at the same place. Poor migrants often rent or buy small one bedroom flat to retrofit it into something more fitting for the Hong Kong, working class citizen or a student will live in similar one if alone or slightly bigger when married and/or with kids, middle class can afford to have good amount of square meters per person and each child will always have their own room, upper class will have can easily have double the space of a middle one and has option of uniting several flats into one. And all of them can live in the one building, use the same parking space and their children will go into the same school(private schools that cater to rich people exist but not everybody cares enough to opt for them).
Then we have widespread public transport that by existing devalues personal car infrastructure and makes getting into the city from some suburb much harder even in the smaller towns. And what maybe considered the most important part by people here is the law enforcement that while far from perfect for example both in Poland and in Russia(still much worse in the latter) does work at keeping streets safe, public transit clean and gangs non-existent(apart from the ones that get in with the government but that's a different story). I think democratic politicians can achieve this kind of integration and they have reason to do it, YIMBY i.e. urbanist faction becomes more powerful by the day in the local elections and I can see some of the people affiliated with it succeeding in the desegregation maybe without even make it a goal. But ideological solutions from people who do make it a goal can sink it all again.
More options
Context Copy link