domain:papyrusrampant.substack.com
NewCharlesInCharge
2hr ago
On one hand I believe that prayer is God allowing man the dignity to participate in His own divine will. God will grant your petitions insofar as they align with His eternal unchanging will.
On the other hand, as a Catholic, I believe that intercessory prayer is worthwhile.
I suppose to reconcile the two I could frame intercessory prayer as vibing with the saints together to be part of God’s will.
mildly_obsolete
2hr ago
Are you being serious here?
functor
2hr ago
It took 14 years, a massive refugee crisis to Europe, the destruction of the country and a decimation of the Christian population to get a jihadist dictator that somewhat controls the country. The ambition is not what it was in 2003.
Kind of clashes with the American rhetoric of unprovoked invasions and the horrors of Russian aggression in Ukriane.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
2hr ago
I expect this reply belongs elsewhere.
Sunshine
2hr ago
Given that Syria has normalized diplomatic relations with the U.S., bombing them to pieces seems to be the most effective nation-building strategy that has so far been tried. Don't invade, don't occupy, just bomb anti-American regimes. The bombings weaken the regime and allow a rival to take over, and the desire to not get bombed makes the new regime want to stay on America's good side. Simple as.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
2hr ago
the very day I become conscious of physical or mental deterioration, I'm checking into a hotel and euthanizing myself with the strongest poison I can get my hands on.
So you're going to kill yourself by 40? Certainly just about everyone is in worse physical shape at 40 than at 20.
This isn't a gotcha, the point is that very slow decay is, uh, very slow.
TitaniumButterfly
2hr ago
My favorite instance was yesterday when I searched google for a term, there were no normal results, and the AI suggested I try searching google.
(Partly this is because it insisted on autocorrecting the term no matter how I tried to specify it, quotes, etc., and it kept giving me the "showing results for $corrected_term" even when I kept clicking on "show results for $original_term" instead.)
ABigGuy4U
2hr ago
They're still ahead
I’m not even sure they’re ahead now. If you compare the US and Chinese Navies as a whole the US Navy looks better, but the US Navy is spread across at least four different oceans and seas, most of the Chinese navy is right there. And maneuverable re-entry vehicles and constant satellite surveillance make giant aircraft carries a lot less practical. Recent war games have indicated that getting carrier groups further west than Hawaii would be extremely risky. And that’s just the large extremely long range ballistic missiles, most of the fight for Taiwan would have to be within 100 miles of the Chinese coast. And that’s not even getting into the string of pretty worrying incidents lately that show a dramatic loss of basic seamanship skills in the US Navy (like accidentally scuttling the John Paul Jones).
Also for some reason it seems like most people picture a Chinese invasion of Taiwan like it’s Omaha beach in 1944 with Higgins boats full of Chinese soldiers getting mowed down on the beach, it wouldn’t be like that at all. It would be 2000 cruise missiles a day for three weeks before there was any kind of landing attempt.
TitaniumButterfly
2hr ago
This is a very modern misunderstanding. Most European kings did not historically have anything like absolute power, but were beholden to a law above their own authority. Their prerogatives were sharply circumscribed in all sorts of ways.
Check out Missing Monarchy if you haven't. https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Monarchy-Correcting-Misconceptions-Democracy/dp/B0D6FGC9YF But not the audiobook, which is auto-generated and awful.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
2hr ago
Sure, DMed.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
2hr ago
Oh.... well why are you so contemptuous about it all? If you haven't tried the suggestions people have offered to open yourself to the supernatural, what makes you so confident that you are right?
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
2hr ago
Thank you for the detailed response!
I think part of the problem is that many churches try to do this, and end up shaming each other and causing all sorts of antisocial issues, grasping at social status, etc etc. How do you propose to avoid all of this? These are major problems that have derailed all sorts of churches in the past.
You know, I do think the "vibe" of Christianity could and should be more intense, we should be more focused on the faith, etc. I think that's the aim of monasteries. Have you heard of this book? My copy has not yet arrived but from what I've heard on podcasts this book probably argues something very similar.
And again my question is - are you going to start a new Church? What is the actual plan you have (assuming you are a Christian - I actually don't know!) From my POV, even if most churches aren't perfect, it's a sight better to join an existing church that is directionally right (compared to other churches) and do my best, rather than trying to start something myself.
functor
2hr ago
This was the same method used to destroy Libya. The US sanctioned them, bombed them to pieces and financed various jihadist groups and slowly destroyed the country. The US failed at nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan and moved on to nation destruction. There was no attempt to build a liberal Syria, there was instead a project to simply destroy Syria. There has been no attempt to fix Yemen, the goal is simply to turn Yemen into a shattered wreck with no capacity to do anything.
The US empire has gone from trying to control the world to simply trying to smash anything that challenges it with not much more justification than might is right.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
2hr ago
Are we now entering a new stage of warfare where soldiers are barely even involved, and we just shoot missiles at each others population centers, trying to decapitate the enemy leadership?
No, strategic bombing has a mediocre track record and in most of those cases it was accompanied by full scale land invasions. Strategic bombing alone just makes the bombee really really mad at you. Israel is knocking the Iranians a few years back along the nuclear "tech tree". Regime change is a stupid goal if that's their goal, but who knows (they'd need a strong rebel group to arm at the very least).
Much better than the horrid conditions of trench warfare during the World Wars
I actually wonder if I'd rather be in a WW1 trench or Ukranian one. It's insane it's even a question. I think you have to pick Ukranian ultimately because of the advances in medical technology. But the technology isn't worth shit if you get droned while evac-ing, which is all too common...
Fiber optic FPVs have high quality and don't have LOS signal issues which means skilled operators can fly them into buildings and around inside them. This means they can even navigate them around say, the tarp you hung up on the front of the dugout, which used to do a pretty good job of stopping FPVs.
Getting hunted by robots is a nightmare, and they're only getting better and more capable.
What are your best predictions for how future warfare will develop?
Each war is different. USA v China would be all air and sea assets. We will probably see almost no footage aside from explosions in or around cities very occasionally.
Iran/Israel can't invade each other so all they can do is lob things back and forth. Note that Israel has a ton of air assets all over Iran though, it's not just missile bases firing at each other. USA/China also cant invade each other, so it would be a similar situation of plinking at each other. Although unlike Iran/Israel, there is actually ownership of Pacific islands (incl but not limited to Taiwan) who would change ownership depending on outcome.
Ukraine/Russia is what not winning the air looks like for sure. Although caveat that with the fact they're post-soviet armies with absolutely awful generals (and politicians making bad military choices) at the strategic levels so this was is significantly more sloppy and gruesome than if France and Germany suddenly decided to run it back for old times' sake.
Land: Defence is so strong right now with drone-spam. The effectiveness/cost of Class 1/2 drones vs their countermeasures is really hard to predict (lasers, AI targeting, cost of everything, reusable interceptors) and shapes land battles heavily so hard to say.
Right now class 1 and 2 drones are cheaper to make than to stop, so defence is really strong at the moment. The longer your attack takes and the further into my lines you get, the more drones I can vector onto your attacking troops. And it's hard to suppress my drones (unless you have air superiority).
Sea: I assume drone boats are the future. Carriers always/forever useful, but their fragility depends on the missile vs countermeasure balance, which we can't predict.
I think the meta stays the same, survivability onion doesn't change. Find the enemy and blow them up from far away.
AI allows you to spread out more and extend the reach of your eyes and weapons. So more smaller drone ships. Stealth and Zumwalt shaped, maybe semi submersible. Don't know enough about submarines but presumably similar.
Air: similar to sea. 6th gen fighters are shaping up to be bigger, for longer range and bigger/more ordinance. Also bigger engine = more electricity = more compute, if your 6th gen isn't also a drone C&C it's already obsolete. It'll be handfuls of 6th gen fighters commanding swarms of class 2 and 3 drones (which in turn, may deploy class 1 drones? Yikes). They'll have radar, missiles so the 6th gen doesn't need to give itself away doing these things.
Closing thoughts on USA vs China: it's the USA's game to lose. They're still ahead but the trend lines SUCK, and nothing about the current state of US governance indicates that's going to change dramatically. They shouldn't bail on the first island chain yet, but as someone who enjoys Pax Americana, I'm not feeling optimistic for my team's odds in 10 years. China can project force in its backyard even if it's never the #1 big dog.
JarJarJedi
2hr ago
Possible, but not the only way. As recent events showed, dropping large bombs from high altitude is not the only way to deal with things, and Israelis are pretty good in employing different modes of warfare. We'll soon see if they have any ideas about underground targets like Fordow plant.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
2hr ago
Orthodoxy (like Catholicism) does not establish the social requirements necessary for true Christian life. A person’s social identity must be governed by their faith in a deeper sense. There needs to be real brotherhood where peers esteem and honor each other for faith, where even small infractions may lead to reprimands (as Christ advises), and where there is an implicit pious competition over faith (wherever men gather with a genuine shared aim, implicit competition exists no matter always, as a feature of human nature and Christ ennobles this fact). They must celebrate Christ as their shared superior peer, not just as a figure in a ritual. A person needs to look forward to sharing their faith and progress like they do today with their grades, deadlifts, cars, haircuts, vacations. But actually, no, 10x more than this — but at the very least you need the social institutions which enable and guide it.
For a long period, churches were able to ignore explicating this social requirement, because —
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Churches had a monopoly on the most compelling art, music, and schools, creating an effortless social draw
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Churches were willing to genuinely condemn and excommunicate members whose behavior was not up to par, forming behavioral-belief enforcement, and if a priest heard you were living an unchristian life or denying dogmas, you would face actual condemnation. This condemnation would have real effects on your social identity: your job prospects, marriage prospects, your ability to make friends or to find occasions for fun
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There was no competing religion or science, in a way we can hardly fathom today, meaning the Christian worldview did not need to be reinforced like it did in the earliest days of the religion. If all the smartest people who know the most are Christian, then it is believed as default. (Today we are competing with a secular culture that doesn’t just promote a more compelling argument, but has significantly better media at their disposal, and your child is pressured into attending their institutions).
The current institution doesn’t work. But what would work is if we look at the church Christ established. How did the first Christians thrive despite more scientifically compelling beliefs and more hedonistic movements?
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Brotherhood was enforced via the agape eucharist. This was an intimate feast with real food and wine, had in honor of Christ every week, where all the brothers enforced each other’s social identity in remembrance of Christ, with peer praise and songs. This is the do this in the Lord’s do this in remembrance of me. (Women were kept submissive so as not to derail the vibe, and chastity was enforced so that men do not compete over women.)
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A norm of esteeming each other’s faith was enforced as the prevailing mode of conversation: “Let love be genuine… love one another with brotherly affection. Outdo one another in showing honor. Do not be slothful in zeal, be fervent in spirit.” “Timothy has proved himself, worthy as a son with his father”. "I am reminded of your sincere faith, which first lived in your grandmother Lois and in your mother Eunice.” "I always thank my God as I remember you in my prayers, because I hear about your love and the faith you have toward the Lord Jesus and for all God’s people." "It gave me great joy when some believers came and testified about your faithfulness to the truth, how you continue to walk in it. I have no greater joy than to hear that my children are walking in the truth”. This is all throughout the epistles: men and women are esteemed for their faithfulness and obedience to righteousness. We first see this habit of esteem in Jesus, who honors and praises John publicly.
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On the other hand, a culture condemning defectors, even by name to the entire church, as Paul does on different occasions in the epistles.
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A culture of condemning all distractions, like Tertullian does against the theater and the “spectacles”. Can you imagine there are churches where people talk proudly about having seen Hamilton? Or going to a basketball game? Yeah, you would have been disciplined in the early church for that.
Essentially, all of the normal wholesome motivations of man are Christened. They are “baptized” within the social immersion of the Church, the prototype of which is the Ark (“by which a few, namely 8, are saved”.)
Modern churches are like the “we are one big family” pep rallies that corporate retail makes you do. It doesn’t matter how often it’s repeated, you’re not a family, because such feelings aren’t formed that way. Because brotherhood doesn’t come from sitting in a building listening to someone or watching something happen. That’s one step above watching TV. Christ wasn’t redefining the nature of brotherhood when he commanded brotherly love, He was saying, “all this stuff I’m saying? If it doesn’t exist in a zealous brotherhood it’s all for nothing.”
I’m sure there are some brotherhoods that develop incidentally within a modern church ecosystem, where a small group of zealous men genuinely try to keep aflame the Holy Spirit through frequent meetings. But I think this is probably rare in the wild and I almost never hear about it. I have seen some on Discord, but of course, that’s not any better. And if these brotherhoods do develop within the ecosystem, almost all the gain occurs outside the church. Maybe you’ll hear some wisdom in the church and hear a good song and that’s beneficial, but the “real presence” will not be in the church rituals, so it’s effectively worthless.
Maybe a scenario would have been better to sum up my babbling. Imagine it’s war and you’re in the trenches. You’ve gotten word that your death is near-assured within the month. In the trench with you are two other Christians, brothers in arms, as well as a small hymnal (powerful melodies) and a reasonable amount of wine. If all three of you wanted to secure the salvation of your souls before death, what would you do? Imagine the gains that you would have in that month with nothing but the bare minimum: a sincere brotherhood, some songs, some wine, and the certainty of death. Wouldn’t it exceed anything you could gain in a modern church over an entire lifespan?
Pynewacket
2hr ago
why should a proven concept be thrown away?
Pynewacket
2hr ago
why are you ignoring the "illegal" part of the argument?
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
2hr ago
Oh, I didn't say I've tried all that. Definitely not the LSD.
Trying to decapitate the enemy leadership?
Trying to decapitate the enemy leadership has been a thing for almost as long as total war has. There were hundreds of plots to Hitler, and dozens of Nazi plots to assassinate Churchill and Stalin. The only reason none of these worked is that all parties involved were surrounded by fearsome state security apparatuses, and because infiltrating a dozen commandoes into a foreign country to kill a VIP under massive security is pretty hard. Later during the nuclear age, assassinating leaders of major powers became untenable along with all the other aspects of total war.
@erwgv3g34 And it’s pretty ironic that Scott mentions Lincoln, given that Lincoln died as the result of a botched and too-late massive decapition strike against the entire Union leadership structure. The plot was supposed to kill President Lincoln, Vice President Andrew Johnson, Secretary of War Edwin Stanton, Secretary of State William Seward, and Commanding General of the US Army Ulysses Grant. The plot fell apart near the date of its execution for multiple reasons (partially because the plan came together too late to actually win the war) and only Lincoln and Seward needed up being attacked.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
2hr ago
Is that more or less than played up the Steele dossier, or reported that Trump commandeered the Beast, or denied the validity of the Biden laptop?
wingdingspringking
2hr ago
One interesting implication of all of this (that you hinted when discussing future generations) is that Darwinism is coming back in a big way. Short of some world shattering event occurring (like an AI singularity or nuclear war), it looks like the world will be inherited by two groups.
The first are those who have such a strong drive to reproduce that they overcome all the perverse incentives and still have large numbers of kids. Presumably, if these incentives exist for multiple generations, after a century or two we will have selected for people who will reproduce in spite of pressure to the contrary.
The second are groups that impose strict social mores in such a way that they prevent such incentives from infiltrating their communities. Hasidic Jews and Mennonites still have very large numbers of children, and show no signs of slowing down. These groups have also existed for centuries during periods of massive social change, which lends credence to the idea that they will continue to do so.
All of this brings me to what I consider to be the most lamentable point of this whole discussion; we will never get to see what happens. It sort of feels like watching a movie and leaving right at the climax. Massive technological, social, cultural, and environmental trends all peaking at the same time, and then no resolution. Such a shame.
ThenElection
2hr ago
As a bi guy, I've dated both men and women. And it is multiple orders of magnitude easier to get a date with a man than it is with a woman. Quantitatively, my inbound like/match rate online was literally 100x when matching with men (I'd get a number of likes in a day with men that it'd take me almost a year with women).
Sure, a fair bit of that was just casual sex. But even if 75% were just looking for casual sex, that's still an order of magnitude more ease dating men than women.
I suspect this mismatch is that your "average man" encompasses a lot of things that make him substantially above average.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
3hr ago
Where does Jung say that Satan needs to be raised into the trinity? I remember reading something about how we need to embrace the divine feminine, but don't remember the Satan part.
In the Red Book, where he says all sorts of weird stuff. It was only released a few years ago so this wasn't common knowledge for most of the period of Jung scholarship. He also basically tried to start a cult, among other things.
I wonder if anyone has tried gpui?
https://www.gpui.rs/
It powers https://zed.dev/ which I likewise have never used, but seems interesting and more performant than electronslop.
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