domain:natesilver.net
wayfarer
1d ago
their cooperation with other great powers has been pretty minimal in order to maintain their sovereignty and independence. I would guess they will have offers of assistance and they're more likely to swallow the costs now and it will make the world worse as a result.
HESA Shahed 136/Geran-2 alone is enough to drop "pretty minimal", I think
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
There is always possibility that iran has backup facility and some sort of top secret clandestine protocol that they will pull all of the enriched stuff to it with first signs if danger. And they already did it two weeks ago
It seems unlikely that they could do this without being seen by Israeli or US assets. You can hide stuff underground but when you start moving it, it's visible.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
Has the USG directly confirmed the use of MOP?
Yes. 14 MOPs from 7 B-2s. I don't think any bomb damage imagery has been released, however.
The X community seems to doubt they were used.
Watching the DR apply the same "America worst" logic formerly typically used by the antiwar left is certainly amusing.
wayfarer
1d ago
Maybe? I would not mock someone who would claim that secularization is possible/likely. But "Iran is on a clear secularization path" is just baseless as of now.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
1d ago
Do you think Ignatiev's ideology is that "all white people are awful?" I don't think that's his ideology. I think he's hostile to White Identity.
Yes, that is exactly what I said.
It's so telling that you are so charitable to Ignatiev when I have never spoken rhetoric nearly as inflammatory as Ignatiev in his statements on the White race.
I think Ignatiev distinguishes between white identity and the white race. Whether you or I find that distinction meaningful is irrelevant to understanding what his meaning is. Lots of non-Jewish white people in the woke movement say exactly the same thing. I have, in fact, heard some white people unironically say the white race should be allowed to go extinct (and a few loons even suggesting more direct and immediate measures), but they are pretty far out on the fringes and not what most of these people mean.
But you still interpret his philosophy openly calling for the end of the white race with so much more charity than my cultural criticism of Jewish behavior in American society.
I'm "charitable" in the sense we are supposed to be charitable to views we disagree with here on the Motte, which means not straw manning, eliding context, or characterizing someone as saying something they didn't say. I don't think Ignatiev is calling for the end of the white race, in the sense that white people will no longer exist. And I think you know this and you are being dishonest in claiming you believe that's what he's saying.
When it comes to Jews, it's not possible to simply oppose them politically and culturally. You have to be an exterminationist if you oppose Jews politically.
If all you said was "Jews have disproportionate power in politics," I wouldn't disagree with you factually, though I'd still want to know what specific remedies you advocate and why you think it is specifically a problem. But come now, SS, you tactically hide your power level but your agenda is not merely JAQing about why so many Jews.
If you are constantly talking about how one particular ethnic group is a threat, how their values are hostile to ours, and how almost every member of that group is driven to behave in a certain fashion, yes, it leads me to strongly suspect that your actual agenda is exterminationist, because if you really believe all the things you say about Jews, it would be irrational not to be.
If you want us to believe that Jews are parasites undermining our civilization and we cannot peacefully coexist with them, but you don't want them dead, you just want to... you know, raise awareness, well, you're either treating your audience like chumps or you're unwilling to follow your own logic to its logical conclusion, and I don't believe for a second it's the latter.
Rov_Scam
1d ago
Because disparate impact suits don't have the magic powers people on this board think they do.
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
1d ago
That's a thing SS is good at: finding a lot of evil Jews. The problem is they're mostly evil Jews, whereas he thinks they're evil Jews.
Do you think Ignatiev is motivated by his Jewish identity to any significant extent, or that his cultural output is influenced by his cultural and genetic heritage? If so, then it's not just- he's evil and he happens to be a Jew. My position is that he's neither good nor evil- he's a Jew.
Rov_Scam
1d ago
The skyrocketing price may infuriate China, but the Chinese won't do anything about it. More importantly, it will cause the price to skyrocket in the US, which give the Iranians leverage. Not much leverage, but the narrative could become that Trump made an unnecessary strike on Iran that he acted like was a one-off but that caused gas prices to soar and necessitated US naval intervention, escalating the war.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
Has the USG directly confirmed the use of MOP?
There are only 3 things being thrown out of this airplane in that kind of operation that make sense. They are by order of letality MOPs, Nukes and Chuck Norris. It wasn't nukes. We would know. It wasn't chuck Norris - you would only need 1 plane, not 6. And there won't be a need for in flight refueling - when they run out of fuel he will just get off the aircraft and push it to the destination. So it leaves MOPs.
And inside those facilities there is a shitload of nasty stuff that could create what sjw call toxic working environment. So I think that even minor damage could cascade into unsalvigably contaminated facility.
There is always possibility that iran has backup facility and some sort of top secret clandestine protocol that they will pull all of the enriched stuff to it with first signs if danger. And they already did it two weeks ago. Whether they are capable of pulling such tight opsec is exercise left to the reader.
Do you think Ignatiev's ideology is that "all white people are awful?" I don't think that's his ideology. I think he's hostile to White Identity.
It's so telling that you are so charitable to Ignatiev when I have never spoken rhetoric nearly as inflammatory as Ignatiev in his statements on the White race. But you still interpret his philosophy openly calling for the end of the white race with so much more charity than my cultural criticism of Jewish behavior in American society.
When it comes to Jews, it's not possible to simply oppose them politically and culturally. You have to be an exterminationist if you oppose Jews politically. You can't just oppose their influence in culture and academia and foreign policy, if you criticize them it means you want them all killed. Only for Jews though. This is the hysterical bullshit standard you enforce in every single reply to me Amadan, but don't at all apply to a Jew who openly calls for ending the white race by any means necessary.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
1d ago
We're already systematically and explicitly oppressed based on group identity! That it's not naked slavery doesn't matter one lick.
This is the crux of our disagreement. I just think it’s manifestly untrue that white people are “systemically and explicitly oppressed” in any country on earth. There are at least some number of people who want us to be — I’ve even met a couple of them — but those people have vanishingly little power at this moment. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t point them out and oppose them. It just means that you seem like a catastrophizing propagandist when you claim that those people are already actively oppressing white people right now, in America.
I don’t believe that having one’s culture disrupted/dismantled is oppression. I want very badly for many cultures in the world to be dissolved, including some within the United States. I don’t think it’d be oppressive at all for a government to do so. Mainstream early-20th-century white culture was one of the better and more functional cultures on earth. I want to preserve many of the remaining remnants of it; however even if we wanted to bring it back, it has been irreparably disrupted by technological advancements and the globalization of the world economy. That’s not inherently a bad thing.
What’s specifically bad is that, in the case of the United States, it has been partially usurped by a vulgar, consciously-hateful, anti-human gutter culture. Jews are by no means the primary creators of this culture, although many individual Jews have been influential in promulgating it. (Just as many Jews were influential in promulgating important parts of the previous American cultural era, the one you like; look up how many of the compositions in the “Great American Songbook” were written by Jews.)
I’m more-or-less fine with governments using heavy-handed tactics, including targeted population replacement, to change aspects of the culture(s) over which they have control. I just also want them to do so in favor of changes that are better for humanity, rather than worse. Smashing ghetto black culture should be a priority for future U.S. policymakers; they’ve already (probably not intentionally) partially achieved this in some major cities by facilitating mass Mexican immigration to those cities; the Mexicans have displaced blacks, taking over their neighborhoods and replacing their culture with a new one. There are plenty of things about Mexican culture I find grating, but it’s pretty much a wholesale improvement over ghetto blacks. This is one way in which population/cultural replacement can be a good thing.
Obviously this doesn’t mean that all mass immigration is good, or that every culture on earth should be smashed, or that every immigrant group will similarly be an improvement on what was there before it arrived. It’s pretty obvious that Sweden was better before a bunch of Somalis and Syrians showed up. (It remains unclear whether the counterfactual world in which Sweden did not embrace mass immigration, but also its fertility rates continued to plummet unabated, would be sustainable as a long-term project.) However, if, say, the Swedish government had invited in a bunch of Japanese immigrants, I think Sweden would have benefited quite a bit from that in the long run. Some cultural/population displacements are an improvement, some are a lateral move, and some are a downgrade. Smashing Appalachian hillbilly culture would also be a salutary goal of a future American regime, and that would potentially involve replacing white hillbillies with some non-white ethnicity. Depending on which ethnicity, that could be a strict improvement!
Been a theory floating around for a long time. The death of JFK was certainly beneficial to Israel with regards to JFK's consistent stance on being against nuclear weapons. Which is more than enough to get the conspiracy impulses going.
2rafa
1d ago
TFR is going down, indicative of women no longer internalizing the values of Islam
TFR is going down in almost every country. In Iran, which had a brief 1970s baby boom under the Shah, TFR has declined almost every year since the Islamic Revolution, even when it was rapidly becoming more conservative.
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
1d ago
If the context was unimportant, why not include it yourself?
The context is unimportant, and I excluded it because it is unimportant. You can't just say the word "context" you have to explain how "the context" changes what I said- and it does not in any way. So he was against Jews getting their own dining accommodations at Harvard? Can you explain to me how that's relevant at all to what I said? My point was to contrast his call to destroy the white race with his claim that anti-Semitism is a crime against humanity. That point is not whatsoever challenged by his position on Harvard dining.
TequilaMockingbird
Brown-skinned Fascist MAGA boot-licker
1d ago
And logistical support and training for HAMAS' 10/7 operation.
Iran has spent the last 25 years fucking around and is now in the "find out" stage of thier life cycle.
'You don't have a sufficient explanation for a radioactive aluminum ring from the year 2003 which we've brought up 74x therefore you're in violation of your obligations under the safeguards agreement from 1974 w/re to the NPT and we cannot verify your nuclear program is for peaceful purposes' isn't really in the same category of violation as 'NPT member-state attacks IAEA inspected facility in another NPT member-state almost certainly using information gained from the IAEA inspectors themselves.'
One is the sort of violations you could likely find in any NPT member-state if they were subjected to 1/10th the harassment and silliness Iran has dealt with for decades and the other is a serious and meaningful violation of the NPT's explicit language.
The vast majority of the report is many years old which makes the conclusion now rather puzzling. The actual impetus appears to be the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but 60% enriched uranium isn't itself a violation of the NPT.
Not to mention how the report and the ensuing aftermath quickly revealed the IAEA is full of hostile spies which coordinate and communicate with non-member states who have secret nuclear programs.
Rex
1d ago
Has the USG directly confirmed the use of MOP? I’m asking seriously. I only see reports where it’s implied based on the context of us having spent the last week talking about them. The X community seems to doubt they were used. There is a lot of speculation that this was another telegraphed strike that allows US and Iran to save face and deescalate.
I have zero confidence in my ability to know what actually happened here and make any predictions about the future.
I decided to check in on plebbit over at /moderatepolitics/. What a total embarrassment. There’s 1000 comments there all basically saying that Iran has been denuclearized, defanged, and is is either about to collapse or lash out with mass casualty events against the USA. As I said, I suppose that’s possible. Perhaps we did fully destroy Fardow with 6 MOP and it was a perfect op. But the lack of even entertaining other possibilities is sad, but not surprising.
gattsuru
1d ago
Yeah, a lot of the gameboy- or ds-form factor devices seem like they're extruded from a press somewhere. Miyoo and TrimUI seem like they're at least aimed at enthusiasts, but most of what actually get advertised seem like glorified ewaste aimed more to be good gifts than good things you'd want to buy for yourself.
That project sounds like it'd be a blast, albeit also a pretty sizable challenge. The MiSTer is pretty impressive tech, if probably more dedicated to fidelity than I could recognize. I've heard far more mixed things about the Retrons, although I do appreciate having something more legitimate than 'tots-ripped-yourself' rom-dedicated machines.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
1d ago
What metric would you trust?
-
TFR is going down, indicative of women no longer internalizing the values of Islam
-
Hijab is becoming less common. The requirement is for the veil to fully cover the hair, but from watching any video of Iranian streets most women totally ignore this — it just barely covers the back of their hair
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a majority of Iranians use VPNs
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
1d ago
But saying "I don't really mean X" when there are plenty of people in your coalition who do mean X is indistinguishable from giving them cover and encouraging them even if you pinky swear that that isn't really what you mean.
Right, so, I acknowledge that this is by far the largest problem with Ignatiev’s beliefs. Again, I don’t think people should agree with him, I comprehensively reject his political project, and I want him to fail miserably and to die knowing that his entire life’s work was a pointless, cancerous failure.
There is a way for naïve white progressives — even ones who are as clearly maladjusted and full of spite as Noel Ignatiev — to be reintegrated back into a politically healthy discussion, but only once they have persuasively demonstrated that they understand the extent to which they’ve directly empowered the most worthless, destructive, spiteful, irredeemable elements of our society. Since that’s not happening any time soon, we can keep trying to crush the Ignatievs of the world. I just think we can do so without calling them liars and hypocrites.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1d ago
I find it very hard to believe that the consequence of a not-even-third-tier power nuking Paris would be Gaddafi being allowed to stay in power.
The consequence of Gaddafi nuking Paris is "no more Gaddafi", but also no more Paris. The consequence of Gaddafi being able to nuke Paris if the alternative is going to be "no more Gaddafi" anyway is quite a different matter.
Yeah, the lesson from this whole thing is not so much "have nukes at all costs" as "if you're gonna fight a war uncoordinated vassal swarm is a bad tactic because the AI will get defeated in detail". The second lesson for those who object is "swinging on someone a few times to save face is consenting to a war, prepare accordingly".
Iran simply miscalculated the strength and wisdom of its proxies. If anything, this is an argument for a durable conventional deterrent. North Korea probably wouldn't find itself in this situation, even without nukes.
quiet_NaN
1d ago
People exclaiming loudly about how dangerous this is while also campaigning for increasing escalation in Ukraine against an actual nuclear adversary are not serious people.
I see few people arguing that NATO should enter a shooting war with Russia. Even providing air defense coverage (which would involve NATO shooting at Russian planes) is not in the overton window. Providing conventional military aid to a proxy has long been established as an acceptable cold war conduct with low risk of nuclear escalation.
I'm highly against more foreign intervention but this seems fine to me. A nuclear Iran seems to be very bad in very obvious ways.
I agree that a nuclear Iran seems bad, but the question is if US airstrikes will indefinitely delay the Iran acquiring nukes. If Iran acquiring nukes eventually is a forgone conclusion, then these attacks might be net negative in that they make it much more likely that Iran will not stick to MAD.
Democratic party elites are strongly pro-Islam and see Isreal as creation of western imperialism, hense thier opposition.
Republicans are generally anti-islam and see the Isrealis as natural allies who won thier war of independence fair and square.
I'm guessing Trump only did this because the MIC assured him we could keep Iran under our figurative boot simply by pushing buttons from afar, doing strikes from the air and continuing to sell weapons to Israel.
That could obviously be false but it's quite pathetic for Iran that Israel and the US can attack them from the air with impunity. Their threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz was dubious already, and after the events of the last week it seems laughable.
There's simply no reason to do a ground invasion.
Will we get regime change this way? Yeah I dunno. Can we keep wrecking their shit and reduce their threat level to near zero? I would bet on that sure.
Think campaign to collapse Syria and not war to oust Saddam Hussein.
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