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We really haven't seen a matching boom in productivity.

Or the current march of productivity increases throughout the 2000s is as a result of shit like cloud software tools, and in a counter factual world where tech stagnated, productivity would be much lower than our actual world?

Most office work is fake email jobs.

This is a ridiculous statement. If you think so, you should post your short positions.

Or, you should start up competing white collar companies and undercut all the companies you think have massive amounts of fake email job deadweight. As you'd have a much leaner cost structure.

FWIW, the most interesting answer to "the fittest" in my mind is probably MMA competition,

There's a certain primal appeal to fighting, absolutely, but I also feel like combat sports s&c is pretty unsophisticated or downright goofy compared to more specialized events because, well, perfectly optimized s&c isn't all that important relative to skills training.

I am an athletic mediocrity

Oh, sure, me too, and ultimately pretty similar logic re:specialization, I just think the many variations on "but what's his Fran time?" (perhaps more prevalent: "I would never want to look like that") are generally contemptible.

More generally, it occurs to me that the word "fit" by its etymology and other meanings pretty strongly implies specificity--fit for something or other. I don't know how many people this will convince, but it certainly makes me look on the concept of "general fitness" with a good deal of suspicion.

I’m well aware that this is a romantic view of it - the lives of premodern merchants were undoubtedly harsh. And I have done something akin to what you describe before, as I mentioned to Ioper (though less extreme than that; typically turnaround wasn’t two days). The number of times I’ve actually flown eludes me now, and I don’t disagree that the exhaustion of constantly moving and never staying someplace for long sets into your bones after a while. Your experience really does depend on the length of the trip though - shorter trips where you have no time to do anything else outside of what you went there to do probably suck, longer-lasting trips are probably more favourable and (for me at least) are a net positive.

Regardless, the compulsion to travel still remains, and I get atypically antsy after having stayed someplace for too long. In spite of the energy that traveling constantly takes, there’s just something about the constant change of scenery that’s refreshing, and it stops you from getting bogged down in the same routines. The dullness and repetition of everyday life seems to grind me down badly in a way it doesn’t for many others.

Neither Polanski or Liu are examples of that. Liu was released due to lack of evidence. Polanski got a sweetheart deal like the Epstein case. The Saudi cases are far closer to this example, but still seem to be different:

That student, Abdulrahman Sameer Noorah, was freed from a Portland jail after the Saudi consulate in Los Angeles gave him $100,000 to cover his $1 million bail. He surrendered his passport and driver’s license to Homeland Security officials. But on a Saturday afternoon in June 2017, two weeks before Noorah was to go on trial for manslaughter, a large, black SUV picked him up at the home where he was staying and spirited him away. His ankle monitoring bracelet was later found by the roadside; a week later, he was back in Saudi Arabia — a fact that the authorities in Oregon did not learn until more than a year later.

Federal officials would not discuss their evidence in the case, but they said they believe it shows that the Saudi government helped Noorah flee the country. Investigators suspect that Saudi operatives provided the student with a replacement passport and may also have arranged for him to escape on a private jet, officials of the U.S. Marshals Service said.

... It is generally not possible to leave the United States by plane without a passport. National security officials said it was implausible that young Saudis on the run could obtain replacement passports or travel into Mexico by land without help. They suspect that Saudi operatives accompany or guide the fugitives.

The Saudi Embassy, unlike many others, routinely posts bail and hires criminal defense lawyers for its citizens when they are accused of crimes in the United States. But Nazer, the embassy spokesman, said it does not “issue travel documents to citizens engaged in legal proceedings.”

Danik, one of the former FBI officials who served in Riyadh, recalled dealing with cases of Saudis who fled despite the fact that U.S. courts had seized their passports. “I remember in some cases local police and U.S.-based FBI agents were angry,” he said. They would call the legal attache’s office in Riyadh afterward asking: ‘How did he get out of the U.S.?’ I told them if they’d have notified us beforehand, I could've possibly filed an affidavit opposing bail because Saudis arrested in the U.S. were often a flight risk.

So his passport was revoked and he was given an ankle bracelet. The escape involved a replaced passport and more coordination. This is not an escape where the US government is arguably looking the other way, this is the US Government letting him keep his passport and leave the country. And still the Saudi cases invite scrutiny with many demanding accountability. It's a different story here to say the least.

Steve Bannon's passport was seized when he was charged with Contempt of Congress... This is not SOP and is not even the case with these Saudi fugitives.

It's not the cell companies that are (mostly) doing this -- y'know those apps that ask permission for your location data with the disclaimer that they might share it with (meaning sell it to) third parties?

They do that -- it's a common & easy monetization strategy.

Technically you can 'opt out', but the app won't usually work if you refuse it access to your location; I guess you can put a fuzzer on it if you want, but hardly anyone does.

Hmmm, ok. So he was the only one released from jail while the other 7 caught in the same operation remained imprisoned and have already had court hearings, and his passport was not revoked, he was allowed to fly to Israel the next day... yet the U.S. government did not intervene. Well someone intervened, who did? Who made the decision and why?

The other 7 were denied bail?

According to Shaun King's sources:

lol

I don't know if you have experience actually working in tech but the "rapid revenue acceleration" is ringing some alarm bells

I've been in tech so long that all my alarm bells have blown out. At this point in my career, I assume most things are bullshit until I'm pleasantly surprised.

Sounds like you'll want to DCA into an ETF.

Though, if controlling your own money appeals to you, and you've got enough money to make the initial investment worth it, and you can be trusted to follow simple instructions and not reveal your seed phrase to anyone... Get a hardware wallet. Trezor is good. Mid range model.

It only lost 30% of its price during the April nonsense. Nvidia lost more. There were some early signs of btc perhaps turning into a safe haven for some people. Which is intriguing, though yes I agree it'll in all likelihood take a quick and serious beating in the next highly serious crisis. But that goes for most assets. Then it'll rebound. After a few hundred "deaths" as the media would have it, it's not too shabby at the Lazarus act.

Yes, btc and "crypto" are pretty different things. Btc is legit. 99,99% of crypto is worthless scammy trash.

And i expect that at some point those will all come crashing down. And when this happens, I expect that bitcoin will take a major hit. I doubt it will be a lethal blow, but I could easily see a >50% loss happening. That's a lot of risk if you are trying to preserve value.

People don't so much go via btc into crypto anymore like they were forced to do in 2017. If lots of shitcoins disappear, btc could easily survive and maybe even thrive more, with a larger proportion of the money finding its way to btc instead.

You seem to be confusing volatility with risk btw. There's no danger in a 50% downturn as long as it doesn't last for more than a few years. Obviously, if you're old/close to retirement, don't go heavy in risk assets. But that goes for the stock market too.

Macron is a head of state which means he has diplomatic immunity. Royals enjoy similar and very long lived privileges.

Random ministers and secretaries, even members of parliaments, unless specifically acting as diplomats do not and should not enjoy immunity from prosecution for crimes that fall under the jurisdiction of a foreign state.

You're either so important putting you in jail could start a war or you are not.

An LLM can make nice little toy python class or method pretty easily, but when you're getting into complex full stack development, all sorts of failure modes pop up

I'm using it for full stack development on a $20 plan and it works. I guess it depends on what you mean by complex full stack development, how complex is complex? I wouldn't try to make an MMO or code global air traffic controls with AI but it can definitely handle frontend (if supervised by a human with eyes), backend, database, API calls, logging, cybersecurity...

And sure it does fail sometimes with complex requests, once you go above 10K lines in one context window the quality lowers. But you can use it to fix errors it makes and iterate, have it help with troubleshooting, refactor, focus the context length on what's critical... Seems like there are many programmers who expect it to one-shot everything and if it doesn't one-shot a task they just give up on it entirely.

The metr paper is somewhat specialized. It tests only experienced devs working on repositories they're already familiar with as they mention within, the most favourable conditions for human workers over AI: https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

Secondly, Claude 3.7 is now obsolete. I recall someone on twitter saying they were one of the devs in that study. He said that modern reasoning models are much more helpful than what they had then + people are getting better at using them.

Given that the general trend in AI is that inference costs are declining while capability increases, since the production frontier is moving outwards, then investment will probably pay off. Usage of Openrouter in terms of tokens has increased 30x within a year. The top 3 users of tokens there are coding tools. People clearly want AI and they're prepared to pay for it, I see no reason why their revealed preference should be disbelieved.

https://openrouter.ai/rankings

Well, that is a general argument you can make: Israeli-born citizens should not be allowed to be attorney generals. Or they should recuse themselves in any case involving Israelis. Or Jews. Or they shouldn't be allowed to be government officials. Or lawyers. Or something.

You could make those arguments.

Your problem here is that first of all, we don't even know she is a dual-citizen (the US doesn't officially recognize dual citizenship, but I assume Israel still considers her a citizen unless she formally renounced it, but unless you prove she still has an Israeli passport you're just speculating), and second, we definitely don't know she actually did intervene in this case.

You implied it with "The interim US Attorney for the District of Nevada is a radical, Israeli-born Jewish Zionist Sigal Chattah. Did she make the call and why? Of course we all know why."

Your "We all know why" is the consensus-building part, and you went straight from "If she did this" (implied: we all know she did) to "We all know why" (explicitly stated).

Yes.

Which is why the Big AI companies are looking to tightly couple with existing enterprise SaaS and/or consumer hardware as fast as possible. And I'm reasonably sure that the large hardware companies may want to aid them. NVIDIA keeps making noise about "AI first" hardware at, I think, a consumer level.

They really do want a version of Sky Net.

I would think you should be the one pointing to other foreigners who were here not on a diplomatic visa who were arrested and charged with trying to have sex with a minor and then were just inexplicably allowed to leave the country with pending felony charges.

The attorney general being a Zionist does not mean that "we all know" that she intervened in the case, let alone subverted the law on behalf of another Jew.

It's not impossible, but you can't just wave at your own confirmation biases and say "We know this is true." And yes, people do get warned for making similar consensus-building assertions about progressive groups.

It's not "dark hinting" it is identifying a real problem that the status of this prosecutor as a dual-citizen born in Israel taints decisions like this, leaving the strong impression that the underlying decisions were motivated by her own identification and "dual" loyalty. An Israeli citizen in a position of power in the US giving Israeli foreign nationals extraordinary etxtra-legal protection is something that is to expected, not something that is "darkly hinted." We can't trust Israeli dual citizens to enforce law when the interests of the Israeli government are at stake. Period. No dark hinting there. She should not be in this position of authority.

Indeed. My employer forbids us from using common LLMs. That would involve giving them our proprietary information. We can only use pre-approved entirely internal LLMs. These are on our hardware.

I don't know, I think if he argues and provides receipts that the attorney general is a Zionist, it's fair to say "we all know" in that he's referencing that people will protect their own. I've seen many folks on here do similar things with regards to 'woke' and progressive groups.

That being said the bias in the post is obvious, but it sounds like you have experience with that. I appreciate that even the most heretodox voices are heard here.

Well, for my own history, getting assigned Strunk and White when I first got to Caltech was a good start, though I agree with the critics as to its tendency to being out of date, some clear hypercorrection in its linguistic prescriptivism, and the more style-oriented parts being not great outside of the formal academic context. From there, it's mostly just been reading lots and lots of linguistics papers.

I also know that several of my peers in high school learned several important bits of English grammar — including, for a few of them, the basic parts of speech — from taking Spanish class.

So the key, really, is to find things that, for one or another element of grammar, lay out something like 'this is how English does this versus how other languages do it.' Like that we use attributive nouns like every other Germanic language (and unlike the Romance languages), but are rather unique in mostly keeping spaces between the nouns: like "motor vehicle liability insurance" versus German * Kraftfahrzeughaftpflichtversicherung*. Or else, those that cover historical evolution of the language: 'this is how Modern English does this versus how Middle English did it.'

Actually, some of the more introductory articles on Wikipedia for various grammatical categories aren't too terrible as a starting place, particularly for things like tense-aspect-mood and phrasal verbs (which is why you sometimes can end a sentence with a preposition, and "This is just the sort of nonsense up with which I will not put" is an incorrect hypercorrection).

As for the rule of dialogue, there's any number of places to find it pointed out that the actual rule is against having two or more different people speaking in the same paragraph, not that there must be a paragraph break at the start of each sentence where a different person speaks — or worse, at the start of each quotation even mid-sentence. (This last is why I mostly avoid reading webfiction.)

(And the vocative comma shouldn't go away, because it's the difference between "let's eat, Grandma," and "let's eat Grandma.")

The interim US Attorney for the District of Nevada is a radical, Israeli-born Jewish Zionist Sigal Chattah. Did she make the call and why? Of course we all know why.

Well, we certainly know why you think so, but you've been warned before about this kind of "We all know"... I don't think we can even call it Dark Hinting since the accusation is very evident even if not explicitly stated.

The story has escaped any iota of investigation from the American mainstream press.

A casual Google search finds stories on local Fox News and US News and World Report. Whether it should have been a bigger story depends on your priors, I suppose.

I'm not going to ding you for single-issue posting (again), and you are allowed to write a post full of speculation and the most uncharitable conclusions possible (I am, of course, greatly amused that you, of all people, are citing Shaun King, of all people). But sure, maybe this is all evidence of ZOG string-pulling. I'd like to know what the precedent is for other senior foreign government officials being caught in situations like this- it does not immediately strike me as unlikely that such an official would be questioned and allowed to leave the country, with some sort of assurances that they will present themselves for trial later. But if you show me where this did not happen in equivalent circumstances, maybe my priors will shift slightly on "Netanyahu got a little special juice from Trump."

But definitely knock it off with this "We all know" attempted consensus-building.

Do you expect the USA to press charges against prince Andrew?

Having poked at ChatGPT a bit, I'm not particularly surprised. If I think of a job it could potentially do that I understand, like graphic designer, Chat GPT (the only LLM/diffusion router I've personally tried) is about as good as a drunk college student, but much, much faster. There are some use cases for that -- the sort of project that's basically fake and nobody actually cares about or gets any value out of, but someone said it should be done. "I'll have GPT do that" basically means that it's considered meaningless drivel no matter who does it.

I suppose at some point it'll be able to make materials not only quickly, but also well -- but that day is not today.