domain:inv.nadeko.net
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
4hr ago
Agree with everything you've said.
I'm slightly more optimistic on the USA. China might be as well drilled, which negates this, but the USA is so dialled. Their institutional culture in the military works damn well. It's full of infinite flaws I'm sure you can name, but they make everything they do look so easy, and then you see any other nation on earth (Israeli airforce is the rare exception) struggle to do what the US does on a regular Tuesday.
You are right though, even that is showing signs of rot.
Total war is "a factory fight" and I think it's going more that way thanks to the increasing sophistication of drones/missiles/interceptors. Also scary when we think about who has the most and the best factories. Yikes!
2rafa
4hr ago
Libya was already relatively internally divided, Gaddafi was just a great autocrat. Iran has far fewer internal divisions than Libya did in 2011.
functor
5hr ago
There is absolutely no reason to do a direct assault of a small hilly island. The only sensible way to take Taiwan is a siege which the Chinese could even conduct from their homeland with anti ship missiles launched from the shores. Taiwan isn't going to last that long without international trade.
Lizzardspawn
5hr ago
Ahh yes. I haven't been able to find direct quotes for eternity. And we are talking for punchlines of popular jokes here for example.
naraburns
nihil supernum
5hr ago
Earlier today I was looking for a particular high resolution image. I don't know when Google removed resolution information from the results it returned, but I had to use DuckDuckGo and then TinEye to actually find what I was looking for--and even then, the level of linkrot I encountered was astonishing. A few weeks ago, I was looking for the source of a specific text string, but Google kept ignoring the way I put the string into quotation marks.
The enshittification of Google has been underway for a while now, but I feel like over the past few years it has accelerated precipitously, and AI is just the tip of that iceberg. Google search no longer exists to return useful results (even if that was not its main purpose to begin with, I at least got results as an acceptable tradeoff for having my privacy sold). Google search now exists exclusively to sell me things, or to sell my attention, so increasingly it gets to do neither.
SophisticatedHillbilly
5hr ago
if a model was right, you wouldn't give up and call it merely useful.
This is only true if a correct model is useful, which is certainly not always true. Even further: the most correct model isn’t necessarily the most useful model even when it is useful.
If I remember correctly evolutionary simulations consistently show a fully accurate perception of the world is generally actively harmful even when there’s no associated resource cost. Autistic analyzers often have more accurate models of social dynamics but do worse at socializing. Blind optimism, undeserved confidence unfounded worries etc are all extremely useful, and moving to a more accurate view is less useful.
It’s possible to have wrong and useless models of course, but that’s the point of the adage.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
5hr ago
It would be 2000 cruise missiles a day for three weeks before there was any kind of landing attempt.
And the presumed response looks like 2000 anti-ship missiles (or pre-placed torpedos) denying navigation to the entire strait, plus long-range anti-ship missiles used to declare a blockade of Chinese ports (see the Black Sea, but with potentially less regard for continued commercial traffic). Which isn't to say that would work out either, but the idea that Taiwan's defenses would crumble immediately like Iran's have isn't a guarantee either.
MollieTheMare
5hr ago
If the setup is something where an average sized man has to lift a moderate sized woman, and you're in a position to get the lifting joint below her center of gravity, I do think even a moderately fit man should be able to do it. I assume the original euphemism was more or less a proxy for moderately fit man is able to generally man handle, which isn't that high of a standard.
There's different levels though.
With zero training I would think most guys could lift a moderate sized woman off their feet.
At a 225# bench I would expect you could basically floor press a cooperative calisthenics/yoga woman where you have her hands in yours and she is in a sort of planche/peacock/crow pose. Seems like it would be amusing in a "I’m flying, Jack!" sort of way.
Assuming you are just by grabbing her (handleless) hips and she is not cooperatively holding a nice grasshopper pose or plank but flopping around or bratting. I wouldn't be supersized if it took the equivalent of a 300# bench to cleanly press a slightly larger than average 175# woman from laying directly on top of you. It's not really the absolute load that's limiting, the leverage is just bad. It would be worse than touching a bench press to below your navel. It's hard to find good statistics on it, but a 3 plate bench is low single digit percentage of men. Totally doable for most men, but does require serious training.
It's like the difference between getting a cooperative partner into a fireman's carry and a lifeless dummy. Pound for pound the latter feels at least twice as hard.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
5hr ago
Ahh yes not sure how it got here.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
5hr ago
I wonder if anyone has tried gpui?
It powers https://zed.dev/ which I likewise have never used, but seems interesting and more performant than electronslop.
NewCharlesInCharge
5hr ago
On one hand I believe that prayer is God allowing man the dignity to participate in His own divine will. God will grant your petitions insofar as they align with His eternal unchanging will.
On the other hand, as a Catholic, I believe that intercessory prayer is worthwhile.
I suppose to reconcile the two I could frame intercessory prayer as vibing with the saints together to be part of God’s will.
mildly_obsolete
5hr ago
Are you being serious here?
functor
5hr ago
It took 14 years, a massive refugee crisis to Europe, the destruction of the country and a decimation of the Christian population to get a jihadist dictator that somewhat controls the country. The ambition is not what it was in 2003.
Kind of clashes with the American rhetoric of unprovoked invasions and the horrors of Russian aggression in Ukriane.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
5hr ago
I expect this reply belongs elsewhere.
Sunshine
5hr ago
Given that Syria has normalized diplomatic relations with the U.S., bombing them to pieces seems to be the most effective nation-building strategy that has so far been tried. Don't invade, don't occupy, just bomb anti-American regimes. The bombings weaken the regime and allow a rival to take over, and the desire to not get bombed makes the new regime want to stay on America's good side. Simple as.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
5hr ago
the very day I become conscious of physical or mental deterioration, I'm checking into a hotel and euthanizing myself with the strongest poison I can get my hands on.
So you're going to kill yourself by 40? Certainly just about everyone is in worse physical shape at 40 than at 20.
This isn't a gotcha, the point is that very slow decay is, uh, very slow.
TitaniumButterfly
5hr ago
My favorite instance was yesterday when I searched google for a term, there were no normal results, and the AI suggested I try searching google.
(Partly this is because it insisted on autocorrecting the term no matter how I tried to specify it, quotes, etc., and it kept giving me the "showing results for $corrected_term" even when I kept clicking on "show results for $original_term" instead.)
ABigGuy4U
5hr ago
They're still ahead
I’m not even sure they’re ahead now. If you compare the US and Chinese Navies as a whole the US Navy looks better, but the US Navy is spread across at least four different oceans and seas, most of the Chinese navy is right there. And maneuverable re-entry vehicles and constant satellite surveillance make giant aircraft carries a lot less practical. Recent war games have indicated that getting carrier groups further west than Hawaii would be extremely risky. And that’s just the large extremely long range ballistic missiles, most of the fight for Taiwan would have to be within 100 miles of the Chinese coast. And that’s not even getting into the string of pretty worrying incidents lately that show a dramatic loss of basic seamanship skills in the US Navy (like accidentally scuttling the John Paul Jones).
Also for some reason it seems like most people picture a Chinese invasion of Taiwan like it’s Omaha beach in 1944 with Higgins boats full of Chinese soldiers getting mowed down on the beach, it wouldn’t be like that at all. It would be 2000 cruise missiles a day for three weeks before there was any kind of landing attempt.
TitaniumButterfly
5hr ago
This is a very modern misunderstanding. Most European kings did not historically have anything like absolute power, but were beholden to a law above their own authority. Their prerogatives were sharply circumscribed in all sorts of ways.
Check out Missing Monarchy if you haven't. https://www.amazon.com/Missing-Monarchy-Correcting-Misconceptions-Democracy/dp/B0D6FGC9YF But not the audiobook, which is auto-generated and awful.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
5hr ago
Sure, DMed.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
5hr ago
Oh.... well why are you so contemptuous about it all? If you haven't tried the suggestions people have offered to open yourself to the supernatural, what makes you so confident that you are right?
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
5hr ago
Thank you for the detailed response!
I think part of the problem is that many churches try to do this, and end up shaming each other and causing all sorts of antisocial issues, grasping at social status, etc etc. How do you propose to avoid all of this? These are major problems that have derailed all sorts of churches in the past.
You know, I do think the "vibe" of Christianity could and should be more intense, we should be more focused on the faith, etc. I think that's the aim of monasteries. Have you heard of this book? My copy has not yet arrived but from what I've heard on podcasts this book probably argues something very similar.
And again my question is - are you going to start a new Church? What is the actual plan you have (assuming you are a Christian - I actually don't know!) From my POV, even if most churches aren't perfect, it's a sight better to join an existing church that is directionally right (compared to other churches) and do my best, rather than trying to start something myself.
functor
5hr ago
This was the same method used to destroy Libya. The US sanctioned them, bombed them to pieces and financed various jihadist groups and slowly destroyed the country. The US failed at nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan and moved on to nation destruction. There was no attempt to build a liberal Syria, there was instead a project to simply destroy Syria. There has been no attempt to fix Yemen, the goal is simply to turn Yemen into a shattered wreck with no capacity to do anything.
The US empire has gone from trying to control the world to simply trying to smash anything that challenges it with not much more justification than might is right.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
5hr ago
Are we now entering a new stage of warfare where soldiers are barely even involved, and we just shoot missiles at each others population centers, trying to decapitate the enemy leadership?
No, strategic bombing has a mediocre track record and in most of those cases it was accompanied by full scale land invasions. Strategic bombing alone just makes the bombee really really mad at you. Israel is knocking the Iranians a few years back along the nuclear "tech tree". Regime change is a stupid goal if that's their goal, but who knows (they'd need a strong rebel group to arm at the very least).
Much better than the horrid conditions of trench warfare during the World Wars
I actually wonder if I'd rather be in a WW1 trench or Ukranian one. It's insane it's even a question. I think you have to pick Ukranian ultimately because of the advances in medical technology. But the technology isn't worth shit if you get droned while evac-ing, which is all too common...
Fiber optic FPVs have high quality and don't have LOS signal issues which means skilled operators can fly them into buildings and around inside them. This means they can even navigate them around say, the tarp you hung up on the front of the dugout, which used to do a pretty good job of stopping FPVs.
Getting hunted by robots is a nightmare, and they're only getting better and more capable.
What are your best predictions for how future warfare will develop?
Each war is different. USA v China would be all air and sea assets. We will probably see almost no footage aside from explosions in or around cities very occasionally.
Iran/Israel can't invade each other so all they can do is lob things back and forth. Note that Israel has a ton of air assets all over Iran though, it's not just missile bases firing at each other. USA/China also cant invade each other, so it would be a similar situation of plinking at each other. Although unlike Iran/Israel, there is actually ownership of Pacific islands (incl but not limited to Taiwan) who would change ownership depending on outcome.
Ukraine/Russia is what not winning the air looks like for sure. Although caveat that with the fact they're post-soviet armies with absolutely awful generals (and politicians making bad military choices) at the strategic levels so this was is significantly more sloppy and gruesome than if France and Germany suddenly decided to run it back for old times' sake.
Land: Defence is so strong right now with drone-spam. The effectiveness/cost of Class 1/2 drones vs their countermeasures is really hard to predict (lasers, AI targeting, cost of everything, reusable interceptors) and shapes land battles heavily so hard to say.
Right now class 1 and 2 drones are cheaper to make than to stop, so defence is really strong at the moment. The longer your attack takes and the further into my lines you get, the more drones I can vector onto your attacking troops. And it's hard to suppress my drones (unless you have air superiority).
Sea: I assume drone boats are the future. Carriers always/forever useful, but their fragility depends on the missile vs countermeasure balance, which we can't predict.
I think the meta stays the same, survivability onion doesn't change. Find the enemy and blow them up from far away.
AI allows you to spread out more and extend the reach of your eyes and weapons. So more smaller drone ships. Stealth and Zumwalt shaped, maybe semi submersible. Don't know enough about submarines but presumably similar.
Air: similar to sea. 6th gen fighters are shaping up to be bigger, for longer range and bigger/more ordinance. Also bigger engine = more electricity = more compute, if your 6th gen isn't also a drone C&C it's already obsolete. It'll be handfuls of 6th gen fighters commanding swarms of class 2 and 3 drones (which in turn, may deploy class 1 drones? Yikes). They'll have radar, missiles so the 6th gen doesn't need to give itself away doing these things.
Closing thoughts on USA vs China: it's the USA's game to lose. They're still ahead but the trend lines SUCK, and nothing about the current state of US governance indicates that's going to change dramatically. They shouldn't bail on the first island chain yet, but as someone who enjoys Pax Americana, I'm not feeling optimistic for my team's odds in 10 years. China can project force in its backyard even if it's never the #1 big dog.
The bombardment Iran is getting isn’t even close to what Taiwan would get. It would look more like Iraq or Kosovo, but in a much smaller area.
More options
Context Copy link