domain:natesilver.net
Ioper
3d ago
Shouldn't you look up stuff like that after? Just watch the play, it's not that complex.
WhiningCoil
3d ago
Man, but then you miss out on the essential dad activity of pushing them, letting them fall, and telling them to rub some dirt in their skinned knee.
TitaniumButterfly
3d ago
The Democrats' positive vision is more socialism and it's pretty popular with a lot of young people. The worsening economy will only fuel this fire.
KMC
3d ago
You yourself don't consider them American, you call them what they are: Chinese, and Vietnamese.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
3d ago
I believe in FiveHour's ability to get creative. My wife's grandfather wanted to name his kids after him, and the fact that he had all daughters did not deter him in the slightest. That's how my wife wound up with aunts named Paula and Pauletta.
Stellula
3d ago
I think you’re getting into some semantics here.
Repetitive prayer certainly exists in Catholicism (and its online offshoot: Eastern Orthodoxy), as does meditation.
The belief that Buddhists have discovered some mystical magical thing in meditation, or “mantras” or “breath work” is just orientalism.
https://www.usccb.org/prayer-and-worship/prayers-and-devotions/meditations
KMC
3d ago
The sons of those who beat a thoroughfare for freedom across the wilderness are absolutely those who have a place in politics. It is the bitter and resentful foreigners, the unnaturalized and unassimilable ethnics, and anyone who considers himself an American and something else besides who have no place here, in politics or otherwise.
After all, you yourself don't even call your friends American. You call them Asian and Hispanic. Hyphenated, at best, and therefore not American, and I won't let you give away my inheritance that my forefathers struggled for and bequeathed to me. Not to Asians, not to Hispanics, not to foreigners, not to traitors and backstabbers, either.
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
3d ago
People have often claimed that a wunderwaffe would soon massively shift the tide of the war, and they've been wrong every time in this conflict so far. Some like HIMARs have legitimately moved the needle, but it wasn't a revolution, just a needle-change that was soon adapted to (with some minor costs associated with the adaptation).
I haven't heard Perun talking about this much and he's been a pretty good barometer for the tempo of the war so far. He actually had a video out recently that went into the use of drones as anti-drone weapons, so I don't see why those couldn't be adapted to this.
quiet_NaN
3d ago
To the degree that gender is a useful concept separate from sex, it is exactly a belief. (We could also rate passing, on a scale of 0 (always read male) to 1 (always read female), but that depends on effort, situation and so forth and is probably not worth the cost of measuring.)
Consider a column named "religion" (which is something the government sometimes tracks, e.g. to put on dog tags).
Sure, I could put in
Name: Sarah. Soul: None. Auxiliary Note: identifies as ensouled / Roman-Catholic.
But that would be an asshole-atheist move. If I put in religion: RCC instead, then almost nobody is going to read that as "she has an eternal soul which she has pledged to the Roman-Catholic version of the Christian god and thus she will either go to RC heaven or RC hell, unlike the next guy who is Sunnite and will either go to that heaven or wherever bad Sunnites go" because nobody expects religion to work like in D&D.
Or take the column "name". Nobody will claim that "Sarah" is her eternal True Name objectively etched in her very soul. Perhaps her parents named her "Karen" and she really hated that name and got it legally changed. Should we write:
Name assigned at birth: Karen. Auxiliary Note: trans-named / Sarah-identifying
jkf
3d ago
Arguably, it depends. If I want to study breast cancer, then I likely want to select "people with boobs"
I don't think silicone bags get cancer -- are estrogen induced breast deposits in males particularly vulnerable?
with the wokes probably prefering "SAAB"
Is that really what they are saying now? I'll be polluting their data by answering "99" in the future.
(
PokerPirate
3d ago
Making twins is super easy. Basically every couple I know who had kids >40 has twins due to how IVF works. I don't know of a way to make identical twins though...
oats_son
3d ago
Chinese and Vietnamese, no, I like Asian immigrants in general. I also consider Hispanics American good enough. There were just way too many of them coming in and straining the social services a lot and undercutting wages.
Arab or black or Indian, yes, probably, depending on how they turn out. Arabs are insular enough that there's a good chance their kids do not integrate, same for Indians, and black people have their own terrible culture that they're usually unfortunate enough to fall into even if they're born outside it.
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
3d ago
I'm not familiar with that anecdote. Is this article an accurate summary? If so, I don't see how that's really related to ambition. She couldn't forge her own path that much when she was the nominee because 1) Biden was fairly popular with Dems, and her campaign was all about not rocking the boat to hold the fractious coalition together, and 2) people wouldn't believe her anyways since she was the VP.
I don't get how here strategic choice on the campaign trail is reflective of her ambition.
roche
3d ago
I believe we're in the twilight years of a meritocratic age, where it's fairly easy to build wealth and status now, but you need to be a highly intelligent and enterprising person to make it happen (like someone in a picaresque), and this gets slightly harder each year.
For instance, I'm developing a game, and the standards for indie games over the past decade have ballooned to such a wild degree that we're now selecting for elite members of the population who can learn and do anything. If 8-10 years ago you could succeed off a fun gameplay loop alone, in 2025 it now takes a unique art style, a healthy and active social media presence, and a fun+unique gameplay loop at minimum. You may counter that I'm describing the mega-hits, but the market is so risky that if you're not aiming for a mega-hit, you're rolling the dice on a flop. Gamers have criticized the industry for years for letting AA games die, but they died at the hands of the consumer. You are essentially telling creators to spend years on a product that is "kinda good" and gamble between a moderate success and a total flop, when aiming for a mega-hit is more like gambling between moderate success and incredible success (with a smaller chance of flop). Hitting the "gamble" button for a string of moderate successes is just unreasonable, when for both small and large developers one flop can spell catastrophe. So the norm that the industry has reached is, "let's gamble for a mega hit each time because just one will sustain us for years". Square Enix is one company that does this now, with XIV profits bankrolling their single-player games -- many of which aspire to be mega-hits and fail.
In this environment, the naturally gifted Miyamotos and Sakaguchis and Carmacks of today will still rise to the fore, but increasingly, they stand alone. And I can't feel positively about that. Aristocracy is predicated on the idea that if you simply gather all these gifted people together, they'll all cooperate and do incredible things. But I feel like that's bullshit, and innovation is drying up all across society.
charlesf
3d ago
4m per year? or 4m total between 2025 and the end of 2028. I wonder sometimes what the actual realistic ceiling is on deportations. There are only so many ICE members, courts etc to process them. Though the budget for such was recently increased, it takes time to hire and train and build institutional capacity in any organization. I would expect a ramp in capacity over time; 2028 is likely to have more than the prior years. I read a semi-convincing argument that at current capacity, assuming the political will remains strong, we could maybe do 1m a year. Definitions and motivated statistical analysis also confound efforts to accurately capture such figures.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
3d ago
I agree, training wheels are shit, and balance bikes are the shit. We had one for our son and he learned to balance so well that one day he took another kid's bike and rode away. We caught up with him only when he reached a massive muddy puddle and got stuck.
SkoomaDentist
3d ago
With games it’s tricky because the set of your players who are mastery-oriented are going to overlap a lot with the set of loyal fans who set the culture and promote your brand, so you can’t suppress them and you will end up being disproportionately affected by their vision whether you like it or not.
Not to mention that quite often such players infest even non-gaming forums (including The Motte!) and viciously attack anyone who suggests that the non-competitive version of the game (usually the single player campaign) should not be held to the same artificial limitations put there for the competitive players (eg. making RTSes depend heavily on actions per minute because the player AI has been intentionally left braindead).
KMC
3d ago
Ominous that the land and country my forefathers struggled and fought for is being silently overrun by foreigner who neither share nor respect my values, culture, and race.
Pretty obvious if you consider it for a moment.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3d ago
36 was what I got the second time. I think it's all old wives tales.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
3d ago
Not even OneHour, TwoHour, ThreeHour and FourHour?
Tree
3d ago
We have terrible problems with muslims: poverty, criminality, hostility, and increasingly, political demands from a repressive fundamentalist religion. Learn from our mistakes: not every immigrant is the same. Let in hispanics if you want, but avoid the green ones at all cost.
By now, most everyone has forgotten about the war. It's still going on now, still killing probably 200-300 men a day, every day. Neither party wants to end it so, it's expected -by war nerds who follow it in detail- to go on until 2027..
Not that much has changed, it's still largely a war of attrition, though most killing is now done by FPV drone and artillery is now less than half of casualties. (at least for Russians it's true. Last I checked, <5% were by small arms).
There's a few new things, but one development itself is noteworthy. Both for what it says about the West, and for the prospects for the West.
Geran-2 (Shahed-136, 'Dorito') is an originally Iranian drone, a very cheap $50k marginal cost two-stroke piston engine powered kamikaze drone(or a particularly shitty cruise missile).
Russians have modified it and are now producing it wholly indigenously, except for the engines that are imported from China.
As you can see in this video, in which an infantry ammunition dump, probably near the front, gets hit by one.
Russia is now producing and using up to 200 a day, with Zelensky saying it might go up to 500 a day. Why is this a big problem? It's been upgraded to fly high, so you can't take them down with machineguns, but need guided munitions of really big flak guns - 35mm, 40mm, 57mm- or use planes. When they flew at a low altitude, Ukraine used to shoot them down with .50 machineguns from trucks.
Now it's diving on targets from 3km, so unless there's a very brave gunner on the spot, a .50 won't help you. There are variants with a datalink that can have a target assigned while they're flying. Here's Ukrainians talking about a drone that has been 'circling the town for 90 minutes'. (endurance is 5 hours).
Despite Russians having telegraphed this move (increased production) since the very start, West doesn't seem to have prepared in the slightest. There's no new cheap missile to take them down, nobody is building cheap pulsejet drones that can catch up & blow them up. Nobody was far-sighted enough to modify a 100 high-performance trainers with gun pods and fire control to allow shooting these down. Even the thoroughly obsolete A-10 Warthogs would serve great as drone interceptors, hundreds of kilometers from the front, finally putting that cannon in use somewhere. Even though right now they depend on GPS systems for accuracy, no one's figured out a way to jam them either. I thought the West was supposed to be innovative? Russia engages in a series of dead simple moves, doesn't even keep it secret, and the West does.. nothing?
Ukraine kept shooting expensive, high-performance missiles like Piorun or Stinger ($300k) at these till it ran out. Total production of Piorun missile is only 1000 a year, Stingers.. are in very limited production. So.. what now?
As total Russian cruise/ballistic missile production of all types is only 20 a day (contrast with the 80 a year Tomahawk production), an additional 200 strikes with 90 kg of HE to a range of 1000 km matter quite a lot. Between informers, long-range recon drones and so on, this could make front-line logistics situation of Ukraine even worse and even complicate frontline drone supply, as with 200 a day, drone workshops that get snitched on can get bombed. And while a 90 kilogram bomb is pretty bad, it's not going to take down an entire block of buildings like the half-ton cruise missiles, so even workshops in apartments blocks could end up on the target list.
The prospects are ..bad . We know from WW2 that jet engines can be cheaper to produce than piston engines. In the eventuality that Chinese develop a copy of a cheap drone jet engine (2 kN should push it to ~600 kph), one that currently sells for $70k, or make something like this at a lower cost, Russians could end up having a huge stocks of fairly cheap and capable cruise missiles. Unless Europeans wake up and develop an affordable counter- that'd be enough to deter European response to a Baltic occupations, as the drones themselves would exhaust stocks of European air-air missiles in a week and the air war would be unwinnable as dismantling Russian air defences would take far longer than it'd take for Russia to blow up all military objects within 800 km of the border.
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
3d ago
should be done by legal citizens at whatever rate is necessary to be paid to incentivize it, and not by imported slaves
This seems to imply that employers have infinite resources to pay whatever rate is necessary to incentivize citizens to do it. In reality it may simply not get done.
imported slaves
Voluntary workers are not slaves. But I supposed I could yes-chag.jpg it. They're slaves, so what? The government should put the interests of American citizens first.
I've seen and read the play before. I'm hoping to look at it with new eyes.
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