domain:streamable.com
TowardsPanna
11hr ago
42% of gen z women voted Trump...? o_O
Nope: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 51% supported Harris while 47% supported Trump. Gen Z men did go 55% for Trump though. Women went 58% for Harris. That is closer than it was in 2020 however but still not a majority for Trump in Gen Z, let alone overwhelming.
Though I don't think that would suggest they are indoctrinated into wokeness either to be fair. A basically 50/50 split wouldn't support that (or at least that things like the economy can override whatever woke feelings there are).
Edit - It actually seems to be closer to 54% for Harris and 43% for Trump depending on which exit polls you aggregate. Which doesn't change the argument much.
Totalitarianit
11hr ago
I think this point makes it hard to lean definitively on the other side of this debate, but do I think there is a reasonable Bayesian counter to the lab leak:
- SARS likely originated from a market
- While wet markets do exist all over China, Wuhan is a massive transportation and population hub.
- Wildlife trafficking into Wuhan from places where bat coronaviruses occur naturally was very common and very poorly regulated, meaning even though these bat species weren't local, the market supply chains were.
- Studies from 2022 show early case clusters centering around the Huanan Seafood Market with positive environmental samples
This doesn't prove zoonosis, but the presence of illegal wildlife trade, specific species susceptibility to Covid, the crazy density of these environments, as well as the historical precedent all provide for a decent argument in favor of zoonotic spillover.
faceh
11hr ago
When you put it that way it makes me kinda pumped for being able to 'mash up' old actors with new ones.
Schwarzenegger in his prime against Statham.
Bruce Willis vs. Chris Hemsworth.
Anthony Hopkins can share a scene with Heath Ledger and Jack Nicholson.
My brain might not even care that its not real!
FtttG
11hr ago
It might be the worst comment section on the internet
How can you say that when YouTube exists?
Pick a song that came out earlier than this year. The top comment on that song will be "Anyone in 2025?" It's the most retarded thing ever.
oats_son
11hr ago
Your spoiler didn't work, which is pretty bad if it's as big a spoiler as you say. Not sure why it didn't work. >!spoiler!<
Thankfully, I don't care about Orson Scott Card.
SkoomaDentist
11hr ago
The point is that US isn't / wasn't recently a part of a larger state breaking up, is not engaged in a major war nearby, has no direct ethnic conflicts that would map to side A vs side B and there isn't a more powerful state meddling and intentionally triggering a civil war in US. The civil wars that come to mind were all driven by one of those four factors (which don't apply to US) or are / were in countries that aren't by any meaningful definition "modern and industrialized" (ie. various African conflicts).
and it seems that it gets pretty bad once you're in your mid 30s, and concerning past the 50s.
Since we're sharing anecdotes here, I'll add two more to the pile: my wife's experience and my own. Let's just say that my wife and I are both mainstream Gen Xers, in relatively good health overall, and a bit closer to the concerning side of your time frame without being specific about my mumble decades on this ball of iron, rock, and water. In 2020, IIRC, both my wife and I had minor respiratory symptoms (drippy nose, scratchy throat) and while mine went away the next day, hers hung around and got a little worse so she got a telehealth appointment and was diagnosed with COVID based on no other information. She really didn't get much worse from my perspective but the fear was real even though it cleared up quickly, which is to say that she remembers that episode as being significantly worse for her symptom-wise than I do. IIRC the vaccine zapped her for maybe a day, whereas mine was again, minor respiratory symptoms and fatigue for <1 day.
Fast forward to 2023. My wife quickly develops cold symptoms. Now that we have quick and dirty home tests for COVID, she uses one, tests positive, has another telehealth appointment, and is advised by the doctor to get the good, behind-the-counter Sudafed and prescribed cough syrup. She does this and is (mostly) better in a couple of days. I quickly develop symptoms the next day, also test positive with the home kit, follow her same regimen, and do not see improvement. I think I discontinued in a day or two because the ephedrine in particular was messing me up and so I just went with regular OTC cold medicine. I have a telehealth appointment, in which the doctor pretty much tells me to keep doing what I'm doing, and spend a solid week with stubbornly persistent symptoms of low grade fever, head and sinus congestion, and low energy. I was not up to doing much of anything other than the bare minimum during that time. Finally, the congestion starts to break up and move, and I am mostly back to normal in another few days, although I don't feel 100% for another couple-few weeks. It was certainly the longest bout of illness I've had in my memory (10 days), but in the last two decades I've had two serious bouts of the flu that were more acute in their presentation, with the nastier one lasting for a week. So overall, yeah, a lot like coming down with the flu, though neither of us felt like our lives were in danger.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
Yes, really. The supposed experts cannot be trusted not to lie to the public into making Belarus the freest country in the world again. The information necessary to determine that Covid didn’t merit a major response was available in March; it was misrepresented or ignored in furtherance of a lockdown agenda.
When the experts are trustworthy maybe they can get the power to recommend NPI’s again. They aren’t.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
Yes, they would. I don’t see a civil war scenario where Alabama doesn’t fall down to, like, post soviet purchasing power.
But I also don’t see a civil war scenario that isn’t sufficiently polarized for the goal of the two tribes to be ‘most money for myself’ as opposed to ‘hurt and subjugate the enemy’. Alabama may wind up like St. Petersburg, but that’s a significant improvement on Denver winding up like Grozny.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
11hr ago
If Trumpism is temporary, then he can't destroy Columbia in three years. If it isn't, then giving in will destroy your institution.
To survive, liberal arts educators have to be willing to become St. John's College. They might not have to buy they have to be willing to.
Botond173
11hr ago
Excuse me but what's the point of listing four qualifiers? Your question just becomes meaningless at that point.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
12hr ago
My money would be on Gibraltar first.
FtttG
12hr ago
The youths that were indoctrinated and acculturated during the awokening are irreversibly woke at this point.
Didn't Gen Z overwhelmingly vote for Trump?
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
12hr ago
Who has behaved this way apart from the UK? France certainly hasn't.
Totalitarianit
12hr ago
Fair enough. My point in saying exceptionally deadly was to make a relative comparison to other modern and common diseases like the flu. It was statistically more deadly than the modern flu both in absolute and relative terms. Higher hospitalization rates, higher death rates. If the word "exceptionally" is too strong then I can use another word. It was notably or demonstrably more deadly than the flu.
As far as our reaction, yes, it does sort of track that way. Before it had really spread across the US, the world was watching Covid destroy Italy. Our country's reaction in March and April of 2020 was totally understandable given what we knew at the time. What was less understandable were the prolonged lockdowns with exceptions for racial justice protests that were backed by open letters from medical professionals, demonization of Ivermectin (like it was poison), accusations of racism for entertaining the idea that Covid might've leaked from a lab, constant narrative shifts on the efficacy of the vaccine, etc.
SkoomaDentist
12hr ago
it's just very hard for an urbanized, industrialized, well-developed country to have a civil war.
Have there even been civil wars in modern industrialized states that weren't linked to the larger state breaking up (Yugoslavia), another war, clear ethnic conflict or another more powerful state meddling and triggering the war?
striker
12hr ago
Complete lack of comments is probably 99% of substacks. Including mine, disappointingly. (I’m as prone to dopamine attraction as the next man…)
striker
12hr ago
like, is everyone paying for fake AI comments?
I fear there’s every chance of this.
I haven’t noticed many good comment sections.
Scott Alexander (Astral Codex Ten) has a mature type of commenter, which is probably to be expected.
George Saunders (Story Club) has a very committed and engaged community, definitely more rounded than your tongue-in-cheek example.
Paul Kingsnorth (Abbey of Misrule) has a very good community who engages reliably.
Even these top 1% are often characterised by positivity towards the poster. It’s very much a leader-follower dynamic.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
12hr ago
The problems is that Israeli propagandist in the west always try to make every attack on them some major moral and civilizational issue.
I feel like this argument burned out for me during the first Trump term when the "Muslim bans" were castigated for clear racial/religious animus and disparate impact on a subset (even a fairly limited one) of (mostly-)Muslim nations. I thought the arguments were somewhat reasonable and compelling that the combination of a history of disparaging remarks and policies (which may perhaps have been defensible in isolation) was at least arguably a bridge too far (see a near-divided SCOTUS in Trump v. Hawaii).
But in the case of Israel, self-styled "anti-Zionists" (many of whom were clearly against Trump's travel bans on the above basis) manage to make no shortage of religious/ethnic animus comments, and propose policies that disparately impact the (unitary) set of Jewish-majority states: Your rules, applied fairly.
Totalitarianit
12hr ago
But it wasn't a nothingburger. It was a somethingburger. The mainstream lied, often and badly, but that doesn't mean Covid itself wasn't siginificant.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
12hr ago
The last republican president assassinated was Lincoln in 1865.
No, Garfield and McKinley were both Republicans.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
12hr ago
I'm confident we could game out how the conversation goes, right here and now. Sometime in the next five years, a popular Democrat gets topped by an assassin. Someone comes in here and says The Culture War has Gone Too Far, we have to get a handle on the violence guys, sure things happened in the past, but now it's serious, it's time to crack down on the hate and radicalism! How do you think that conversation goes?
I think you are being a little unfair here. I do not remember anyone on the Motte (even Blue folks like me) reacting to the attempted Trump assassination with anything other than disapproval. Maybe I didn't express enough horror and disapproval for you, but no one thought it was no big deal or worse, something to be encouraged. And by and large, I did not see that reaction even among my most leftie friends. Sure, TikTok was full of people screaming in dismay that the shooter missed, but do you think that actually represents mainstream Blue tribe thinking?
I think more Americans of all political stripes think trying to assassinate politicians (even politicians they dislike) is bad, than you are willing to credit.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
12hr ago
You could use a site or script to edit all your comments with nonsense and then delete everything (I've done this). You'd keep the karma.
The only issue is entering your password into a third party free site. A script with open code would be better.
Last issue is that many subreddits will ban you for mass editing and deleting your comments. They have bots watching out for this.
I'm not so sure about this. I don't remember seeing anyone on the Motte reacting that way, but of the people I interacted with IRL in my very blue bubble I was the only one who wasn't openly wishing the shooter hadn't missed. Most at least had the good grace to only do so in conversations held in private rather than public locations, but they were said openly to everyone present to widespread agreement. How much of that was puffery versus how much of it was serious is another question...
I think the important question isn't whether or not they think it is bad, but whether they think it is or may become necessary.
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