domain:shapesinthefog.substack.com
faceh
14hr ago
Seconding this.
And if you have a decent amount of training in some of the disciplines on display, you can actually sort of comprehend what's going on in that tangle of appendages, and understand why landing that particular spinning kick-into-right-cross combo took a lot of skill to unleash, even if it didn't land.
faceh
14hr ago
So how DO you punish rulebreakers?
And more to the point, if the rulebreakers just ignore the punishment what's the ultimately sanction/enforcement mechanism?
quiet_NaN
14hr ago
I have just looked on the list, and I have to say I am a bit perplexed why typical use for condoms is so ineffective (13 out of 100 -- only a bit better than pulling out).
My theory is that there might be confounders, because condoms also protect from STI while most other methods do not, so they would select for a more risky sexual lifestyle in general. Relying on a guy you just met to have a condom and use it correctly is likely riskier than relying on remembering to take a pill a day.
Not a one of those criticisms of Obama is more severe than criticism I see of Trump.
From a like source? The NYT is literally the archetypal Obama-ite left-liberal internationalist publication. If anyone should show him unquestioning support, it would be them. The equivalent would be equal criticism coming from, say, Newsmax or Breitbart.
though feel free to look back on Russiagate if you want similar elite conspiracies. There are plenty of Democrats decrying the election, just like with Gore, just like with the next election they'll lose
These are completely different. With Russigate, no-one of any significance was suggesting that there was anything compromised about the voting process itself, which obviously crosses into very new and dangerous territory. Same with Gore - there was no suggestion of fraudulent malfeasance, the dispute being about recount boundaries and timings etc. Plus, luckily, we have a like-for-like way of comparing these different instances. How did the losing party react in the days and weeks after it became clear they would not win?
Hillary:
Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans. This is not the outcome we wanted or we worked so hard for and I’m sorry that we did not win this election for the values we share and the vision we hold for our country... We have seen that our nation is more deeply divided than we thought. But I still believe in America and I always will. And if you do, then we must accept this result and then look to the future. Donald Trump is going to be our president. We owe him an open mind and the chance to lead.
Gore:
Now the U.S. Supreme Court has spoken. Let there be no doubt, while I strongly disagree with the court's decision, I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Electoral College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession. I also accept my responsibility, which I will discharge unconditionally, to honor the new President-elect and do everything possible to help him bring Americans together in fulfillment of the great vision that our Declaration of Independence defines and that our Constitution affirms and defends... And now, my friends, in a phrase I once addressed to others: it's time for me to go.
Trump (in a speech longer after the election than Gore):
They cheated and they rigged our presidential election, but we will still win it. We will still win it. We'll still win it. And they're going to try and rig this election too. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. Stop the steal. No, we continue to fight. We've had some great moments. We just need somebody with courage to do what they have to do because everyone knows it's wrong... there's no way this could have happened other than the obvious cheating or a rigged election. There's no way it could have happened
There is just no comparison and it's blindingly obvious.
The only reason no Democrat President is pushing this is that there's no Democrat President, period.
No mainstream Democrat (as in a sitting Senator o/e) ever cast any doubt on the integrity of the voting counting process in 2024. Next.
The government is not more sacred than the people it rules. We are citizens, not subjects, and not lessers.
Obviously I don't disagree. But the J6 riots were different because they attacked the very legitimacy of the democratic process - their aim was to, by force, overturn the result of a democratic election and install a new leader. That was and is unique, as was the extent to which they were indulged and encouraged by Trump.
And of course, once that context couldn't be repeated, Trump won again. Fortifying an election, and loudly bragging about it, makes it easier to counter the second time around. The Trump campaign was much more aggressive this time around, to their success.
Cult mindset. Luckily I'm well adjusted and can believe that sometimes Trump wins fair elections and sometimes he loses them. Your mindset literally cannot comprehend the world in which a majority of voters simply voted against Trump in one election. It's also completely unfalsifiable, another cult warning sign. When he loses, it was rigged. When he wins, he fought back against the rigging.
Glaukopis
15hr ago
Occam's razor here is that chronic pain is very mediated by meaning/embodied community. Heard very similar stories from people becoming more situated in other types of communities (I.E. trans person with chronic pain cessating after increased in person community interaction)
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
15hr ago
Jersey Mike's just doesn't have any subs that I actually enjoy, so JJ wins by default. However, Erbert & Gerbert's (a sub chain in Wisconsin and I believe other midwestern states) blows both out of the water. It's just a shame that I can't get them any more where I live.
faceh
15hr ago
I think my main point is that Trump, for all his weirdness, apparently has pretty decent genes and can't be a particularly bad parent if his kids are all successful in their own right and are still on good terms with him.
Someone else pointed out Elon's kids as a comparison and, yeah.
cjet79
15hr ago
Summer pool season started a few weeks ago. I'm on the board for the local pool. It is probably one of my most time consuming volunteer activities.
On the upside the board is mostly fun people who have real lives, so the meetings are often productive with a minimal amount of political jockeying. We drink at board meetings, and one of the guys on the board runs a local wine shop and does a yearly wine and dine event for board members.
On the downside the type of people that join the board are still generally busybodies. The treasurer is very opinionated on people following the rules and has a strong desire to punish rule breakers. She had a very Political-Managerial-Class idea of how to enforce rules though. Her latest idea was a strongly worded email to all the members with enumerated punishments for not following particular rules. I had to point out that the people breaking rules were probably least likely to read any such email, and that we already had the authority to punish them we didn't need to warn them first.
I would generally suggest people get involved with their local community. There will absolutely be people that disagree with politically. But if you are serving a common cause then that political difference gets papered over as irrelevant more than you'd think. And it's a good way to have things bent in a direction you'd prefer.
I will maybe share more board stories in the future. Some stories might be heavily more culture war oriented, like the little trans kid on the swim team, or the twelve year old that pulled a knife out on another kid in the park across from the pool. These stories are kind of uninteresting in the way that we are generally trying to optimize for non-controversy. None of us want to be in a media segment about trans kids on a local swim team.
The actual controversial stuff that people argue over during the board meetings are financial things. Money is tight, and it's hard to know how to beat spend it to maintain a good experience for the pool members.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
15hr ago
As far as I know, yes. Certainly culturally.
quiet_NaN
15hr ago
Per WP, the typical-use Pearl Index of "Symptoms-based fertility awareness ex. symptothermal and calendar-based methods" is 24 (i.e. 24 pregnancies per 100 women per year), which is slightly worse than Coitus interruptus. Contrast this to a good method like IUD (0.8).
Awareness methods are only good enough if getting pregnant is not that big of a deal. For example, if you have access to abortions and no objections to them, or if you plan to have a baby with your husband in a year anyhow and would only be mildly inconvenienced by an earlier pregnancy.
For a teenager who is strongly pro-life, but not sufficiently abstinence-only that one can rely on that (which basically is most teenagers), relying on this method seems like a good way to end up being a single mom at 16.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
15hr ago
It could just be our location for whatever reason, but I have very little reason to keep going there after two mediocre sandwiches in a row.
HaroldWilson
15hr ago
I understand a 50 Stalins criticism to be that someone's positions aren't extreme enough and he should lean into them even more
If that were true then Stalin would be a desperately confusing example to use for the reasons @Stefferi points out.
It was the first one I found by googling that sounded good enough.
Fine but the two are obviously not equivalent. Manchin was a sitting Senator and former state governor. 'Dace Potas' is a journalist who is two years out of college whose various bios tout him as a writer for such pillars of journalism as USA Today and something called 'The College Fix'.
HaroldWilson
15hr ago
Sanders is claiming that Obama isn't left wing enough, which is a 50 Stalins criticism
This is very silly. On this basis it is impossible for a left-winger to give anything but 50 Stalins criticism to those on the centre-left. Obviously Sanders will claim Obama isn't left-wing enough, because he's... to his left.
anon_
15hr ago
The core issue here is that 40 years ago is a long time and there should probably be some automatic statute of limitations for psychiatric stays to fall off your record
Our track record at actually curing serious mental illness isn't that great (especially if it's controlled by medication that the patient is always one dose from going off). Many of those conditions are inherent and fairly permanent.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
15hr ago
For example, PA prohibited firearm ownership to "Any person going about from place to place begging, asking or subsisting upon charity, and for the purpose of acquiring money or living, and who shall have no fixed place of residence, or lawful occupation in the county or city".
This isn't a permanent restriction.
Or more aptly, Kansas
Entered the union in 1861.
Will speak as a fan.
MMA is really the only bloodsport I watch. First, I love the progression from the prelims to the main event, with the latter often being not worth watching at all. It's very fun to watch in a group with 8 light beers and a pizza showing up.
What it's not: A way to fantasize about my own fighting capability
What it is: A way to observe the pinnacle of human achievement in pain tolerance and performance. Making our bodies into weapons is an insane counterpoint to modern western living. Sure you can get like... 60% of that experience by being a traditional athlete, but nothing comes close to the insane violence in MMA. It gets my blood pumping, and even the women's events are a type of masculinity that the elites have done their best to smother everywhere.
anon_
15hr ago
I don't think that's right -- a number of the founding States had restrictions against those unsuitable that did not rest upon a criminal conviction.
For example, PA prohibited firearm ownership to "Any person going about from place to place begging, asking or subsisting upon charity, and for the purpose of acquiring money or living, and who shall have no fixed place of residence, or lawful occupation in the county or city".
Or more aptly, Kansas prohibited transferring a firearm "to any person of notoriously unsound mind". It's hard to imagine "treated for a violent mental illness" as not coterminous with "unsound mind".
quiet_NaN
15hr ago
Probably true, most women I know are STEM-adjacent. In these circles, not having a boyfriend or husband and not being on the lookout for one either is well within the spectrum of accepted behavior, certainly more so than constantly getting your heart broken by hot men interested in sex.
It might be different for, I dunno, the typical social circles of someone working for a nail studio?
Hadad
15hr ago
Not a one of those criticisms of Obama is more severe than criticism I see of Trump.
I can't quite tell if you're joking. On the one hand, we have the sitting President of the United States alleging that millions of votes were cast fraudulently. On the other, we have "Reddit communities". I wonder, might there be a slight asymmetry between these two things?
No, though feel free to look back on Russiagate if you want similar elite conspiracies. There are plenty of Democrats decrying the election, just like with Gore, just like with the next election they'll lose, too. The only reason no Democrat President is pushing this is that there's no Democrat President, period.
This is such a strange rendering of the riot in abstract terms. Indeed it was directed against ruling elites, but unfortunately in this case those elites were democratically elected representatives of the people certifying a fair election, and the rioters were targeting them because the process had failed their cult leader.
And Trump is the democratically elected representative of the country, yet people still rioted against him -- only the left destroyed innocent people's property, lashing out in blind rage at the fact their cult lost. The government is not more sacred than the people it rules. We are citizens, not subjects, and not lessers.
Good job for those J6ers that the same election riggers who had the power to magically turn the result against Trump didn't show up for 2024 (or 2016), I suppose. Perhaps they overslept.
The ability to rig an election does not mean a guarantee of success; elections have many moving parts. This is why it took 2020, and sweeping, unprecedented changes to the voting process, to properly fortify the election.
And of course, once that context couldn't be repeated, Trump won again. Fortifying an election, and loudly bragging about it, makes it easier to counter the second time around. The Trump campaign was much more aggressive this time around, to their success.
yofuckreddit
15hr ago
I hate to say it but I just disagree, and I say this as a big fan of JJs who will never turn one away.
I had the privilege of nerding out for an hour and a half with a dude driving a 720s whose vanity plate read frkyfst Both places use the same suppliers for meat, but the cuts are thicker at JJs, along with those for veggies. Their misfire on a bread redux, along with them now being on version 3 of the sublime kickin' ranch shows how much jacking of the formula the PE firm has been doing. The new toasted subs are absolutely hot garbage and destroy crew throughput. I have appreciated one or two of the LTOs though.
In comparison, I've found the bread at JMs to be more consistent and the veggies more generous. I have to beg the guys on the line at JJs to give me a reasonable number of tomatoes.
quiet_NaN
15hr ago
Okay, you did not say that one can thus safely disregard opinions publicized for ulterior motives. I am sorry for for misrepresenting your views.
You did claim though that Aella decided to blog on substack with the motive to promote her OF.
I am arguing that saying "Aella performs on OF, therefore every decision she makes is with her subscriber number in mind" is overly reductionist. You might as well say "@quiet_NaN is a man (true), so he wants to get laid (probably also true). Him writing this post is obviously an attempt to gain status on The Motte to boost his attractiveness (false as far as I can tell)."
If getting people to subscribe to her on OF (rather than substack) was her motive, then she is not doing a very good job of streamlining the process. In her non-paywalled substack, she does not even mention that she is on OF, per a quick web search. But you can figure it out easily enough:
- first you have to click on her profile, which will take you to https://substack.com/@aella
- then, you click on the link which will take you to https://knowingless.com/
- then ignore all the links on the side sending you to twitter, discord, surveys and so forth and click "about"
- then click on the fifth link on that page, with the text "became one of the top Onlyfans earners until my attention span ran out"
- then click on the fifth link on the article from 2020
- voila, you are at her OF page (the link to her free/preview OF page is also in the article)
HaroldWilson
15hr ago
Not really - the point is that if you don't want to have children, unless you are actually a practicing and believing Catholic (o/e) there is no reason at all to use 'natural' family planning. It is currently low-status, but it's also worse than the alternatives - not that those two are necessarily connected, but they are both true. Using your 'conceptional' decisions as a means of reacting against the aesthetics of the modern world is very silly indeed.
yofuckreddit
15hr ago
It's been a pretty short time since the buyout relatively speaking, but that's a bummer.
For anyone with the app, I believe the code jmmissesyou is an evergreen code for $2 off a regular.
Lykurg
We're all living in Amerika
16hr ago
Recently watched a video...
I wonder how much you could condition yourself against abrasion. I know people can run on gravel at least.
If it was 2 v. 2 I'd prefer some kind of tag-team format, since actual two v. twos inevitably turn into 1 v. 2s, which always end badly for the one.
I did mean to see the dynamics defending multiple directions. Just make it so the team loses with the first knockout/tap.
Yeah. Need to be exhibition rounds in UFC events that are just there to be a spectacle, not everything has to be completely serious.
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