domain:traditionsofconflict.com
zeke5123a
12hr ago
I don’t think there is any strong evidence to suggest a frame job here. What is motive of the victim?
Lizzardspawn
13hr ago
Collapse happens first gradually, then suddenly. I have said almost 3 years ago that both sides are losing the war and it is competition which one will lose it faster.
And I am not even sure that West's best toys can turn the tide*. And I suspect that is the reason why they hadn't been delivered to Ukraine. Taurus may be a nice piece of gear. But I am fairly sure Germans doesn't want to give China opportunity to figure out counter measures.
*If you think tide exists. Although it seems that the artillery theorem starts to work in their favor lately.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
13hr ago
Absolutely not. Moving to Japan does not make me Japanese.
Lizzardspawn
13hr ago
And man, a lot of westerners who have staked so much of their personality on the belief that Ukraine can win this thing will presumably be inconsolable for a while if Ukraine throws in the towel with Russia making actual territory gains.
Doubt it. In my bubble those are the same people that wore masks until 2023 and bend the knee for floyd. If Kiev falls - in 24 hours they will find another pet cause. And ukraine war will be memory holed.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
13hr ago
Empathy and shame are certainly valuable, but I think the problem is that in this era of social media and in many cases media in general is that such feelings have quite often been weaponized in order to remove boundaries or excuse behavior or make decisions that are actually long term bad for everyone. Finding a way to create sad puppy content so that the viewing audience feels the pathos that the creators of that content want you to feel, and are thus manipulated into believing that such a thing is disgraceful is tge easy mode of getting people to do what you want. And it’s become fairly common and in my view dangerous, as it prevents people from really slowing down and thinking about it.
And the real danger is exactly what is happening on the right. After years of sad puppy porn used to manipulate people into thinking things that turn out to be wrong and decades of fear being used in much tge same way, people now see those feelings as bad and even dangerous. They see people using pathos for manipulation and react by celebrating the thing that is supposed to be shameful. That’s not a bad thing when the story told is not true, Annnd tge danger is under reaction to a story that is true.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
13hr ago
This is the problem though. Large parts of the right now won't accept being shamed full stop, by either side. They won't be shamed by the left. And they won't shame themselves. Trump has identified accepting shame of any kind as weakness;
I don't think that's correct. There were significant dramas around H1B's, Iran, Epstein, and recently amnesty. All this involves a doing things powerful people don't want done, or not doing the ones they do want done, so it's not an insta- victory for Trump's base, but it does show he responds to shame from his supporters.
To my mind a wise right wing person would accept shame for something like this story, if true.
That's a big "if". There were too many controversies where the right was expected to accept shame, that turned out to be obvious lies. A wise right wing person would not even acknowledge this as a real thing, until several smoking guns are produced. Then we can start talking about accepting shame... though it's a tall order. When I want to talk about the biggest medical scandal of this generation - pediatric trans medicine - I get told that the amount of people impacted is tiny, and so I shouldn't care. So since the impact of this (if it's even true) is one dude, I'm afraid I won't be able to accept more shame than the wise left-wing person does for transing kids.
KingOfTheBailey
13hr ago
Doom in particular got people in trouble not only for being ridiculously addictive, but also because it used broadcast packets to run its multiplayer code. So a few people gaming could have a disproportionate impact on the entire office LAN.
FtSoA
13hr ago
Please do bear in mind that most people who wanted Ukraine to win thought they were going to lose in weeks/months, and were pleasantly surprised that the Russians proved so incompetent at modern maneuver warfare, and the Ukrainians so resilient. This includes the bulk of Western military/geopolitical analysts.
Ukraine continuing to exist as an independent state at all is a "victory" that many thought very unlikely.
If the Ukrainians deem it in their best interest to accept territorial losses then so be it. They fought way harder than was reasonable to expect when this first started.
nomenym
13hr ago
In this case, I think foreigners are probably right to describe the British justice system as their own, because it seems to serve them more than it does the British.
FtSoA
13hr ago
Don't tell me that tell the Russians that.
But I suspect it's Moldova that has the most to lose from a significant Russian victory in Ukraine.
FtSoA
13hr ago
Why not?
Empirical evidence suggests strongly that it keeps not happening, even by people who claim to want it to happen. Furthermore, the Taiwanese themselves (unlike the Ukrainians) are pretty lackluster in their own efforts to build up deterrence to China.
My guess is that it's a foregone conclusion that Taiwan will be absorbed by China in the coming years, similar to Hong Kong, due to everyone recognizing the inevitable and Taiwan and the US being unwilling to go to war over it once China decides to exert significant pressure. Possibly, a future US administration that was very hardline on China might change that calculus, but both parties are pretty antiwar these days.
But if the US has budget X and they can split it between the Pacific and Europe, or just spend it on the Pacific, the latter option is scarier for China
Don't confuse stocks and flows.
That ship has already sailed. The US has been conducting "non-kinetic" military operations in support of Ukraine's war effort for the duration of the war.
We are not, in any meaningful sense of the term, "bogged down" in Ukraine. Notably, our US Navy ships have not sailed to pressure Russia in any significant form (as we did re: Iran). Also, ships can change course if ordered to redirect. As could any of the other military assets in the region. They aren't being permanently committed or destroyed. (Note that we always have some level of military presence countering Russia and conducting ISR.)
urquan
Hold! What you are doing to us is wrong! Why do you do this thing?
13hr ago
“George E Hale describes Mottezians” could be a regular segment.
More interesting than bare links, at least.
ABigGuy4U
13hr ago
Yes probably, when I say freezing the conflict I was being a bit unclear. I’m including solutions like giving away the eastern half and making the remaining rump swear neutrality, not just a Korea style freeze. Anything that could stop the conflict without getting Poland encircled.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
13hr ago
Tall, taller than I am. Cropped hair, clean shaven, I don't think you're Canadian but I imagine you posting from Canada anyway. Enjoyer of spectator sports, smoke an occasional cigar, sometimes drinking beer when posting. This is all probably stupidly innacurate to realty.
birb_cromble
13hr ago
If that's the case, then isn't ISW admitting Russian advances an even stronger signal of accelerated Russian gains?
orangecat
13hr ago
This whole thing has not been fact checked and is based on one anonymous source... That's enough for you to consider me a nonhuman?
You think you have the moral high ground here?
ThisIsSin
Liberty has an anti-privilege bias
13hr ago
Large parts of the right now won't accept being shamed full stop, by either side. They won't be shamed by the left.
What has accepting being shamed by "the left" brought them?
It hasn't bought them economic prosperity, it hasn't bought them moral prosperity.
The problem with shame is that you can always just say "no" if you're willing and powerful enough to do so. The "right" has regained that power, for the "left" emptied their stores of social credit on wasteful social investments that ultimately failed to pay off/legitimize themselves.
No_one
13hr ago
Russians wouldn't settle for 'freezing the conflict', they're not idiots. They're going to demand neutrality or keep fighting.
They have said that over and over.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
13hr ago
Large parts of the right now won't accept being shamed full stop, by either side.
Why is this a problem?
Trump has identified accepting shame of any kind as weakness
No, events have demonstrated that accepting shame is weakness. Both Smollett and Floyd demonstrate this -- the totally fake Smollett incident got Congress to pass a hate crime law, and the shame about the killing of Floyd resulted in shamefaced politicians dialing back on enforcement of basic laws against real crimes.
They are then welcome to e.g. turn the tables and say it's the left who should be really ashamed for not taking immigration seriously in the first place.
That doesn't work, the left simply sneers at the idea that they could do anything shameful or that the right has any standing to shame them. As I said, it had become an asymmetric weapon, and the breaking of it was necessary.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
13hr ago
I've no idea what anyone looks like either I just get a mental image reading people's posts, which firms up the more of their posts that I read. There are some posters here where I can't see anything at all, for various reasons.
Edit: You wear steelframed high quality eyeglasses in my mind's eye. German-made, of course.
No_one
13hr ago
Please be serious. Where Putin puts his forces after taking out Ukraine is the concern.
There's nothing valuable in the Baltics whatsoever. Nothing at all. The population would mostly flee and be happily snapped up by European union which needs wagies. Baltic sea navigation wouldn't be improved, actually seizing the Baltic state could possibly make western Europe close the Danish straits.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
13hr ago
Male, early 30s, knitted brow, dark brown hair that sticks up. Heavy framed glasses. Green on March 17. You are surrounded by a yellow aura which belies your vociferous demeanor.
No_one
13hr ago
It's not about budgets.
US doesn't have the industrial capacity to counter China. The US war plan, right now, relies on a hail mary of "maybe if we spam 1000 improved Tomahawk missiles at (mobile) Chinese batteries from submarines off the coast we'll be able to kill enough of these to be able to operate carriers near Taiwan.
Mind you US Tomahawk inventory is about 1k. (Or 2k) I dunno, but in any case only a fraction can even hit mobile targets even theoretically and assuming, during a war that US would be able to observe China unmolested by laser satellite dazzlers is brave in itself.
Do you think this will help? While team U has shortage of everything, I think their main issue right now is that Russia will soon be able to degrade their air defenses to levels that their drones will be able to strike the whole country. If they get to this point - you won't even be able to build new air defenses or training camps. They will be just sitting ducks.
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