domain:alethios.substack.com
anti_dan
1d ago
The abrupt end with little chance for handover to a different org/funding source.
How does this change the problem of the program being bad? PEPFAR is bad. It keeps people alive for the sole purpose of spending money to keep them alive.
How something is ended can matter quite a lot. This was not done gracefully. Or constitutionally, but that's a procedural issue.
Its end was at least as legitimate as its illegitimate beginning. The program is obviously unconstitutional.
I don't think PEPFAR and home construction training programs are a worthwhile comparison.
Why not? These are both hypothetical subsidies to Africans. In one scenario you subsidize sexual deviancy, in the other you subsidize housing. This is a worthwhile comparison in that obviously subsidizing sexual deviancy is bad.
TournamentFishing
1d ago
Well, the names of Harry's mentors are references to esoteric alchemical processes, so it's not the craziest fan theory I've ever heard.
TournamentFishing
1d ago
Take the case of Gerd R, one of the victims mentioned by Pink News. Gerd was a married, heterosexual man who had a history of crossdressing. He was arrested multiple times for public indecency after his neighbours grew tired of finding him hiding naked in their communal bins. He was later rescued from a concentration camp by the intervention of his doctor, who pointed out that he was heterosexual.
I think this segment is worth highlighting. It illustrates Rowling's point (Nazis were targetting LGB, not T) in a very darkly comedic way.
JarJarJedi
1d ago
That said many top wrestlers end up marrying announcers, actresses, or models and retire to a life of television guest spots, reasonable dieting, and possibly a position as a stable oyakata.
Not much different from what is happening in Western sports, as I understand.
FtSoA
1d ago
The crazy thing about markets is that they work so well, even under adverse conditions. The Chinese made some necessary compromises and it worked out pretty well for them.
You do point out a very real challenge I am painfully aware of and what is the underlying motivation of why I would write such an essay. The erosion of (classic) liberalism by progressivism has happened; can we stop it? Or are we in the U.S. doomed to the same eventual fate as the UK?
I have made exactly the same argument you do against Christians saying we need to return to Christianity--if that led us here what good would it do to redo things, even if that were possible? (I'd argue the key difference between classic liberalism, at least the free market economics of it, and Christianity is that the latter is not based on a factual understanding of reality.)
In the U.S., classic liberalism got hammered pretty hard starting during the Great Depression for about 50 years on economics, then we had a few decades of half-decent neoliberalism in both parties, and now both parties are largely past neoliberalism for the indefinite future. MAGAfication on the right may actually negatively polarize the left into becoming more neoliberal again, if we're lucky. #silverlinings
And, though my essay is aimed at progressive failures, I figure my best shot of convincing MAGA types that perhaps they should care about market economics, as the GOP once did, is by trashing progressive failures, not Trump and present antimarket policies.
JarJarJedi
1d ago
There are a few of non-Japanese guys in the top league now - Mongolians of course, but also one Kazakh, one Russian (actually Buryat but he says he identifies as Russian so...) and two Ukrainians. One of them is going down to lower league soon (maybe he will be back) but another has a decent chance of becoming an Ozeki if he keeps fighting like he does. So if somebody is upset by non-Japanese getting in (I have no idea but I assume some people would) their battle is pretty much lost by now.
As for scandals, I'm sure Japanese are human so they may have their own share. There were Yokozunas retired because of bad behavior. And maybe somebody fixes matches too - but even in my short period of watching I've seen a lot of unexpected wins and upsets (including the last basho, where I haven't seen a single person who could predict the result even mid-way) so even if someone would play dirty, it'd likely be hard to notice because of how it's inherently unpredictable anyway. Statistics can only get you so far.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1d ago
The formula used by the NHS explicitly has a rural weighting so as to offset the population densities. Not entirely of course but somewhat.
You don't think a your caveats are doing a lot of work here? How big is the weighting, and do they compare to vaccinating the young and healthy vs. the old and the infirm?
In the US about 35% of hospitals are in rural areas but about 83% of people live in cities.
That's not a massive disproportion, and it says nothing about actual resource use. I've been to rural hospitals (in Europe) they're not comparable to city hospitals.
"Hey you're too expensive to treat, so just fend for yourselves" is a bit of a non starter, but the effect is the same.
You don't think it's possible to patch someone up locally, and send them to a bigger hospital if they need more complex care? Or are you saying this is not being done?
FtSoA
1d ago
Have you ever heard the phrase "the plural of anecdote is not data"?
I'm not trying to convince you that your particular eyes are lying to you. But Europe is a pretty big place. In most of it, AC is not very common even as heat waves increase.
There is objective data on this fact. In my essay, I linked to such information. This is not, to my knowledge, a contested set of facts. You could, with the language skills and internet access you have go forth and rapidly find out that either I am right in my characterization, or show data that would force me to reconsider my statements.
But you standing outside of a building and telling me I'm wrong will not cut it because 1) I've been to a bit of Europe and 2) I can read sources describing the overall situation in the U.S. vs. Europe.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
1d ago
I went through a phase in the Asashoryu years where I kept a log each basho, bought a book on moves, and would attend every year the March basho in Osaka. I've been many times. Great fun; I usually imbibe on these days and am well into my cups by the last bout at 6.
This and that occured, and all the wrestlers I used to follow are now either ringside judges or back to Mongolia. I once shook Ama's hand (he would later be Harumafuji) in a back alley in Tokyo day before his match. He was with two very large tsukebito (lower ranked wrestlers who are essentially lackeys) leaning up against a massive obsidian SUV that looked as if it could carry a black Op wet team into the PM's office. Anyway he lost the next day (so much for my handshake being lucky.)
It's rumored to be a world of hookers and gangsters, hardcore tradition mixed with courtesy, violence, extortion, and quietly ignored prostitution. That said many top wrestlers end up marrying announcers, actresses, or models and retire to a life of television guest spots, reasonable dieting, and possibly a position as a stable oyakata.
TournamentFishing
1d ago
I've never heard of a faculty member denied tenure for poor teaching at one of these schools;
I was told of a professor at UPenn who never showed up to class the year he was up for tenure review. He still got tenure.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
I don't know. But my first AC that I bought in 2004 went down to 16C, was stupid and made the room a walk in freezer. My current - lowest setting is 18C and has all kind of smart bullshit to prevent it going full blast. Up to the point that I think of tinkering with the thermistor to convince the bastard to play fairly.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
I read it and it doesn't match reality. I look at the façade of my building and out of 40 apartments there are 30+ air conditioners. People use them both to cool in the summer and to heat in the winter. AC are extremely versatile devices when temperatures swing from -20C in the winter to 40C in the summer.
And yes we have ice drinks - we just don't enjoy as much the starbucks travesties - so ice is usually in water, soft drinks or soda water and cocktails. Or you just open an ice cold can of beer and drink it on the go.
We haven't tuned AC to 11 like US because relatively more people in EU live in regions with bearable humidity. And up to 32-33C heat is no problem if humidity is low. You just drink more beer.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1d ago
Very reasonable and straightforward. Markets work well for many economic tasks.
But Classical Liberals don't have a monopoly on markets. China makes good use of markets in their authoritarian nationalist capitalist model. They're not liberal. The Romans had a pretty laissez-faire attitude to markets but supplemented them with aggressive imperialism.
Marketism and laissez-faire works best in economics. Classical liberalism and libertarianism are poor politics because of their openness and inability to develop a strong power base. Say you have a classical liberal state. Who gains? Everyone. But they can all see ways to make more gains by weakening the system. Big business wants to bring in cheap labour, privatize gains in labour price while socializing costs in welfare. They also want to protect domestic markets from foreign competition. Poor people want money from the rich. Middle class people want cozy sinecures. Trade unions want regulations on business and to prevent mechanization. Foreign lobbies want expensive adventurism. Nimbies want nothing to be built. Greens want industry dismantled.
So I don't disagree but if the proposal is more 'classical liberalism' then there has to be some way of developing a classical liberal power base. It doesn't seem to be very stable as an equilibrium, with so many forces with incentives to undermine it. Christianity also has many virtues but we observe it on the decline in the West, see Sunday trading, abortion rules, treatment of adultery, marriage, homosexuality... I can imagine a reasonable, justified argument that Christianity is good, shared faith makes many things easier. But without the 'here's why Christianity is declining and how this trend can be reversed' the call to action seems incomplete.
Of course this is a very big and hard problem. I can't see a way to make classical liberalism work reliably without getting captured by various interests. And a huge party-state to compel obedience like China brings with it new problems.
The Freakonomics guys were insistent that at least during the era they were doing their data collection there were (to them) clear cases of fraud (in this case match throwing). A sumotori must have a winning record to avoid demotion, which means 8/15 by the final day at least. It is my understanding that they analyzed many bouts and cases where wrestlers just happened to win on days when it was do or die were statistically improbable unless something was awry. Combine this with the reality that it's man-to-man, and no one can get inside the head of either wrestler, and matches can be over in a few seconds. I personally suspect it's happened, but isn't commonplace, particularly now.
There's currently an ethnically Japanese yokozuna (the highest rank) which has been rare since the Takanohana days (lots of Mongolian or Pacific Islander guys) and that generates local interest. Though alas, young people are often disinterested in this traditional sport and focus more on soccer, volleyball, basketball, or even judo. It doesn't help that not just any kid can do sumo or even play around at it. You have to be big, and the professional guys are packing away food and booze in impressive proportions.
There are other more culture warry scandals but this isn't the thread for it.
edit: typos
TournamentFishing
1d ago
Do the genes that code for immune system responses also tend to be the ones that have a big effect on polygenic scores for eg, intelligence? If not, I'm really not too worried about these selected embryos being dangerously similar to one another
magicalkittycat
1d ago
Idk generally biodiversity is a strength for life and gene editing ourselves to be more similar and eliminate mutations opens up some long term danger. Even just monocultures without same genetics but same species clumped up too much in an area can end up wiped out.
Now with gene editing technology perhaps we'll avoid the issues because we can literally just edit ourselves to not die to a new disease, but that's gonna depend on how much we can do and how fast we can do it.
I think it's perfectly fair at least to worry that planned genetics might have an unexpected issue the same way planned economies did. Easy to think you outsmarted the greater systems of the world until it bites you in the ass.
FtSoA
1d ago
but yeah the idea of being slavery being efficient overall is something I've never understood
Indentured servitude fixes this. I'm half kidding, but I think at least two of my ancestors were indentured at Jamestown.
Unions are bad, in my view. Should not be legally empowered by the government as they have been.
The abrupt end with little chance for handover to a different org/funding source.
How something is ended can matter quite a lot. This was not done gracefully. Or constitutionally, but that's a procedural issue.
I don't think PEPFAR and home construction training programs are a worthwhile comparison.
You really, really don't have to sell me on the downsides of humanitarian interventions as a general rule.
FtSoA
1d ago
My recommendation would be to read the article and view the source cited therein as a good starting point.
Honestly I'm surprised this is something someone wants to contest. Do you have a lot of iced beverages in your part of Europe too?
FtSoA
1d ago
What sounds good vs. what is effective is a common problem, yes.
As a matter of basic logic and follow through, I get a little peeved that if one agrees with the stance that "we, via the coercive power of the state, need to do something" then by god one should make sure it actually is effective. Frequently, this evaluation step is skipped. Homelessness, for example, remains a big problem, and it's typically worse in areas controlled by progressives doing so many things. Just this evening my wife did not want to use our nearby park to put the baby in a swing due to the homeless being all over the playground area (normally they're more broadly dispersed). The city wants to spend millions of dollars on renovating this park but they won't keep the drug-using vagrants away. A homeless man just tried kidnapping a baby out of a stroller at a public transportation station this week, too.
What's funny is that someone like Noah Smith will unironically write that public parks are (in the strict economic sense) public goods. I'd like to show him how easily taxpayer-funded spaces are excludable and rivalrous. Don't even get me started on libraries.
In short, fuck progressivism for being both expensive and ineffective.
magicalkittycat
1d ago
Economically, coercion usually is not very efficient.
Slavery can make sense for the slave owner economically if they have an efficient system for preventing rebellion/runaways/etc or can outsource enforcement to the government or someone else, but yeah the idea of being slavery being efficient overall is something I've never understood. You can beat someone into working a good deal, but getting the best out of them is tough through coercion. Some of the smarter slave owners even realized this and would pay cash incentives (or other similar rewards) to productive slaves. Sometimes they would even rent out their slaves to others and allow the slaves to keep a portion of the earnings!
Slavery starts with a disadvantage to begin with, any system with six people working for their own incentives has a numbers and morale advantage over a system with five workers who gain nothing and one lazy layabout who captures most of the gains for themselves.
Then add on that the market distortions of "free" labor adds less individual incentive for owners to invest in new technology that could clear up the workforce to do other economically productive things for someone else who still needs labor. Why spend hundreds of thousands investing in automation when you have a free work force subsidized by the police state? And yet this automation is what we need, so workers can go do jobs that can't be automated yet.
It's also less efficient at distributing labor, a large slave owning operation is functionally a mini planned economy. The owner says who does what, and while the smaller nature of it compared to a country doesn't make it as inefficient, it still suffers.
That doesn't mean slavery can't and doesn't work, even the worst systems still tend to be a little productive because people are doing labor in them but overall as a society having a bunch of rent seeking middlemen tends to be a drain on growth. We see a similar thing now where some labor markets have an opposite issue, workers/unions have too much power and demand a bunch of busy work like elevator workers literally taking things apart and putting them back together that could be better spent elsewhere growing the economy through labor that is actually needed.
Architects have dreamed of modular construction for decades, where entire rooms are built in factories and then shipped on flatbed trucks to sites, for lower costs and greater precision. But we can’t even put elevators together in factories in America, because the elevator union’s contract forbids even basic forms of preassembly and prefabrication that have become standard in elevators in the rest of the world. The union and manufacturers bicker over which holes can be drilled in a factory and which must be drilled (or redrilled) on site. Manufacturers even let elevator and escalator mechanics take some components apart and put them back together on site to preserve work for union members, since it’s easier than making separate, less-assembled versions just for the U.S.
If slavery is the balance leaning too much towards the employers where they get lazy and inefficient, stuff like this is the balance shifting too much towards workers.
FtSoA
1d ago
I think the typical EA isn't that far off of the typical Western liberal/progressive tradition in terms of their views on human rights?
I'm sure someone somewhere has done polling on this.
I do not believe that Effective Altruists would oppose vaccine mandates categorically under grounds of bodily autonomy, for instance.
Ah well, even my own libertarian instincts allow exceptions for bodily autonomy violations under crisis conditions. No, Covid-19 didn't meet that threshold, but plenty of historic plagues would if we had a modern outbreak. The optimal level of coercion is not zero.
I understand those as fair arguments, but they are the same fair arguments Khrushchev made for Stalin and that Marx made for Guesde.
I very much do not think those are very similar things in kind or scale. To my knowledge, no one in EA leadership was encouraging or validating Ziz or SBF with awareness of their actual behavior/intent and denounced it all upon discovery. Any kind of interesting new ideological movement that grows is at risk of attracting crazies and grifters; what matters is how that's handled and I think at worst EA was fooled by SBF like many others.
Of course. And I denounce them all as capable of the same horrors.
I suppose one can commit to a very, very strong stance on individualism. Are you an anarcho-capitalist?
DuplexFields
Ask me how the FairTax proposal works. All four Political Compass quadrants should love it.
1d ago
(don't ask me why AC units became such pussies lately)
I have been assured by top conspiracist minds that the refrigerant chemical companies ensure their regulatorily captured lawmakers’ outlaw refrigerants as soon as they go out of patent, purely for environmental reasons of course.
Thomas is Orthodox. I believe there isn't a formal Orthodox dogma on this, in the same way as the Catholics, but it would be fair to say that there is a high degree of Orthodox skepticism around IVF and similar technologies. If that piece from 2008 is representative, the attitude seems to be very cautious. They would not support any process that involves destroying or discarding fertilised embryos, but assistive technology in principle is not forbidden. The whole article I linked includes a section noting that the embryo has the ethical rights to its unique human identity, to life, and to eternity and immortality. More pertinently to this subject, Metropolitan Nikolaos writes:
Preimplantation embryo testing is connected with the application of IVF (see e.g. Ehrich et al., 2008). When the aim of testing is therapeutic or preventive intervention, then it is compatible with classic medical perception. However, at present, not only are therapeutic cases very few, but they also carry all related IVF consequences. In fact, when the tests are positive – namely, when a genetic disorder has been diagnosed – the affected embryo will not be transferred. If no unaffected embryos are produced, then the chance of a pregnancy is prevented.
Moreover, preimplantation testing could eventually lead to selection of special traits (e.g. gender, colour of hair or eyes), or even to destruction of embryos bearing undesired traits; consequently, it may generate a eugenic perception of life.
Although preimplantation testing forms a modern diagnostic method that is very promising, the Church ought to maintain Her explicit reservations.
Though I am not Orthodox myself, I am happy to endorse the above position.
He goes on to write:
Undoubtedly, modern technology has greatly contributed to health research and promises even more achievements. This is considered an exceptional blessing from God. Nevertheless, its irrational use threatens to ‘desacralize’ man and treats him as a machine with spare parts and accessories.
Although man regulates technology, he could ultimately be governed by it, unless he is prudent. He may be easily enchanted by technological achievements and, consequently, may become subjugated by them. He risks destroying his own freedom in the name of the freedom of scientific and technological progress that aim at expanding human dominance over nature.
The use of technology and human intervention, to the extent that it safeguards and assists in the sacredness of human fertilization, is not only acceptable but also desirable and pleasing to God. However, technological progress is not considered successful when it imposes choices contrary to nature, affects family unity, interrupts the co-operation of spiritual and natural laws and replaces God. Success is not only the discovery of a new revolutionary technique within the wide context of genetic engineering; it is also the effective confrontation of numerous problems (genetic, psychological, social, ethical, financial, etc.) that emerge from an irrational practice, particularly in the field of invasive fertilization.
The Church is not afraid of changes, neither is She against novel discoveries. Nevertheless, She firmly rejects disrespect for creation and the human person as well as desecration of the institution of family. Fertilization forms the holy altar of life; therefore, entering inside it, requires respect and fear of God.
[...]
The Church embraces pain, illness and disability within the context of man’s fall. At the same time, however, She respects medicine. Although She blesses every ethically acceptable medical human attempt to restore health, She entrusts the final outcome in each different case to God’s love for every person separately. The epitome of Her mentality can be found in the Ecclesiasticus (Book of Sirach, 1952 edition): ‘My son, in thy sickness be not negligent: but pray unto the Lord, and he will thee whole’. She faces everything with patience, humility and faith. She does not differentiate trials from the love of God, but views them as opportunities for salvation and sanctification.
The Church avoids specific rules or excommunications when dealing with bioethical matters, including those concerning assisted reproduction. Basically, She leaves them open, while, at the same time, She indicates the direction and ethos of approaching each specific case. She does give a generalized definition of God’s will, but offers everyone the opportunity to detect it in his or her own life.
This seems well put to me. 17 years since have passed since that was written and today we might wish for a firmer statement, but I think the Catholics have shown the benefits but also the dangers of declaring too many explicit rules too swiftly. For most ethical issues I respect the approach of giving a general direction, and a clear ethical framework, but not presuming to declare the correct action in every individual circumstance.
Not the greatest comment for two reasons. First, it’s too snarky by half. Second, my word, that’s a lot of unnecessary tracking info. In case you don’t know, you could have deleted everything after the first “&” and been fine.
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