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You're your own ancestor?

Americans have a lower life expanctancy than Costa Ricans, Thai people and Chileans. The US and China have roughly the same life expectancy. There are two scenarios: Americans live incredibly unhealthy lives and require 17% of GDP to be spent on health care to keep a decent middle income life expectancy or Americans live some worse than other countries and have somewhat better medical care yet get minimal bang for the buck.

The profession has a deliberately bottlenecked profession that makes it unnecessarily selective. Even if the average black doctor has lower MCATs than other doctors, they're still going to be plenty good to do basic medical procedures.

That would be a reassurance if it were true.

Are you familiar with Killer King? The history there seems to me to be an irrefutable demonstration that Affirmative Action can in fact have devastating effects in the medical field, and how those effects can in fact be perpetuated indefinitely despite general knowledge of the problem.

Many such cases.

So if the Tories are toast, and therefore Labour has the inside lane, how will this affect the Rwanda plan, and what do you expect to happen concerning migration in Britain? More open borders? Harsher deportation? Favoring one country over another, or one race over another?

Welcome to why Affirmative Action makes Asians and Whites furious

Illegal immigration -> anchor baby -> wait 25 years -> Green card (400k? closest thing to stats)

Why are you ignoring the anchor baby? You know, the foreigner who just got citizenship immediately for no reason.

Refugees (150k/yr) (relatively low by historic standards)

Why should I care about people who have been approved, and not those who claim asylum in order to enter the country legally, who have not yet been approved or denied?

Twenty-eight out of the last thrity-one months have had encounters increase year over year. I only stopped counting because they don't give me FY20 information. The increases in FY22 are practically doubling, and they still rose in FY23 and so far in FY24. That's not low by historic standards, that's an insane invasion by historic standards.

This number should be 0. Maybe once upon a time it made sense to allow refugees into the country. Maybe in the future it will make sense again. Today, I want it all shut down.

Lottery (50k/yr) (constant number since 1995.)

I do not think we should be letting anyone in via lottery, but I appreciate sortition as an allocative tool. If this were the only immigration I wouldn't care, and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Marriage and minor dependents (600k/yr)

Nope, I don't want chain migration or more foreigners of any kind, for any reason. Certainly not children and women who aren't going to contribute, anyway. When we imported Chinese workers in the West, we didn't import their women. This was the correct choice, and we should reinstate it.

No one likes illegal immigration, so that's a moot point.

Incorrect. Revealed preference shows many people, mostly Democrats, like illegal immigration. Other coethnics like illegal immigration. NGOs who get paid by the feds like illegal immigration.

Given your misrepresentations already, especially about refugees, I have a hard time addressing this in good faith.

So basically, those who supported the practice of associating his name with the bad part of town might as well have been the, er, MLKKK.

Activist goals (the stated ones, anyway) would have been better served by just trying to get more high-human-capital into medicine. But that’s a bridge too far.

As a matter of simple mathematics, assuming the first chart with the > 50% fail rates is correct, this cannot be the whole story. In the Family Medicine category failure rates go from around 10% in 21-22 to around 50% in 22-23%. Even if no black students had been failing in 21-22 and every black student failed in 22-23 that would not be enough of a change to explain this difference, unless the fraction of students who are black also doubled.

Doesn't look like we'll get much traction on it, but I'll tell you how calyx goes.

I'm off windows on my laptop, but still need 10 on desktop basically just for Adobe software. Gimp is earning its name these days.

Windows 11 looks creepy. The new "we constantly record you screen and process it with AI" thing was unintentional self-parody.

I'm still waiting for my prize for being the first of my ancestors to even be born in the western hemisphere, so I'll let you know.

The curse of directly replying from the comments feed

My kid's school district is hosting a Pride parade. They put out a call for counter-protestors because the local Christian group is picketing it complaining about abortion being murder or something.

For some reason I find this all so absurd. Not the Christians I don't care about that, though apparently some kids are traumatized by "the hate" (that some people think abortion = murder) being expressed is an added facet. No, more like the... unbelievable cringeness of a school district doing a Pride parade?

When I was in school I pretty much considered it

  • prison, and
  • the people operating this prison were the last people I looked to for approval or insight

The freaks aren't the lesbian bi queer gay or trans (or straight) kids. The freaks are the people who run the place. It is a category error to read anything more into it. I can't imagine anyone feeling down on their lifestyle or sexuality because school disapproves. Like worrying about what ants of you naked.

I consider this the only healthy attitude for navigating school.

Most golf carts don't have the little extras required (seat belts, mirrors, etc), but many of the more expensive "campus security vehicles" are road legal, like the ones Google uses.

Funny anecdote actually: my college made it very clear that the new gold-plated camp sec golf carts hit the dollar threshold for Grand Theft Auto if you, say, got shitfaced and stole one to do donuts on the baseball diamond.
They were the road-legal upgrade package so they could use the public side roads instead of being limited to campus paths.

As for climate, I'd want some zip-up canvas doors or something to keep the winter rain off, and probably need to build a garage + heated batt box for charging lithium batteries in cold weather.

A friend of mine recently went to a specialty conference, she described a lecture she saw that was talking about the difficulty in giving feedback to students these days, a student at the end asked "wait is that why all of my friends and I are told we are doing great the whole rotation and then get a 3/5 on our evaluation at the end?" Everyone just nodded.

Good teaching requires being able to safely give feedback and that just isn't possible anymore. The problem isn't limited to minority students.

Okay fine this a bit of an exaggeration but still.

I'm sorry to hear that.

Not only did Jeroboam post it, you are replying to a reply to that post.

I might stand corrected. I thought the whole problem was that they trained the AI on ScarJo's voice

As a likely RFK voter, this is pretty spot on. The only personal difference is that I have kookier personal politics than RFK*.

The only way that I'm voting for Trump before RFK is if Tulsi gets the VP slot and RFK's polling is below a personally-defined threshold come November.

*I supported Bloomberg in 2020, desire the annexation of Mexico+, want federal bicycle vouchers and a CCC-style program to put in bike interstates, and think we should treat addicts like we do bears:

Given the escalating danger posed by the bear’s behavior and the imminent threat it presented to residents, deputies were left with no choice but to euthanize the bear in the interest of public safety.

This has been huge, students used to spend 2+ years studying to get the highest possible score on an exam they get to take one time so you had to be sure. Now they just try to pass. Now a lot of that exam was stuff that "doesn't really matter" (ex: biochem pathways) but the incentive shift was absolutely massive.

I encourage this attitude, it's extremely hard to know if your doctor is good or not because the things that are available for a patient to know are generally customer service things that are often extremely uncoupled from actual medical knowledge and practice ability. Very common for people with good customer service skills to be bad doctors.

You expressed interest in non-political or nuanced storytelling, in gritty superhero vibes, and in analysis of the consequences of superpowers' numbers/magnitude/mechanisms, for all of which you got a perfect recommendation. If you'd said you wanted brevity, on the other hand...

You'd be surprised how much academic pedigree "matters," plenty of people don't care but you'll find soccer moms, educated people, the neurotic and all kinds of others very insistent on a "good doctor from a good school with good reviews on google," despite how often many of those disconnect from reality. For us it can matter because certain of jobs (like being a program director) may be essentially closed off to you without training at a "good" institution. Now, again this isn't necessarily reality based but it matters to a lot of people.

What you might find more interesting is that programs don't really work like undergrad or other fields. The preclinical half of med school is essentially the same country wide, in a large part because students have settled on a half dozen ultra high quality learning resources and ignore whatever the hell their school is trying to do. Pass rates for the exams (which can be using standardized exams but don't need to be) and boards (standardized) are higher at higher tier schools because the students are better. Therefore fail rates jumping is a huge huge black mark.

The other half of medical school is clinicals which uses standardized exams and evaluations from preceptors to determine your grade. The evaluations can get more program dependent and may actually have deflation, but this is also where variation in educational quality comes in since most schools pre-clinicals are basically the same* these days.

This is a gross simplification but for the purposes of this discussion should do.

Most likely UCLA is experiencing much more trouble attracting the limited pool of black students with good test scores now that every other school in the country is aggressively poaching them.

Morehouse college has the same problem despite going from 100% black to 100% Black

The immediately visible effects of AA first show up at the lowest ranked schools and work their way up. When Harvard takes the 1050 SAT guy who would have gone to Evergreen State, Evergreen has to settle for the guy who learned to write his name in his juvie GED program.

Combined with the rise of grade-inflation-studies degrees and endless free money, it's the perfect cover for everyone who matters choosing to ignore the consequences.

What's your epistemic certainty on this? Where is the bottle neck? What level of selection is necessary? Do you know the data on under trained providers vs traditionally trained ones? We have it.

What does a doctor actually do? I don't think you actually know, in all likelihood your primary interaction with medicine has been outpatient or maybe some emergency, where most of the work is in inpatient (and for academics, research) and necessarily invisible to patients since they aren't following us around. Most patients don't have any actual need to see the hard work but it's very much their and being done and intensely concentrated on things like the elderly, chronically ill, and people who randomly role through with a one time episode of something.

For instance proper antibiotic selection can be tremendously complicated, and we can see this by looking at things like stewardship rates between NPs -> Urgent Care -> Procedural -> Primary Care -> IM -> ID.

Doctors almost always insist that their friends and family see actual doctors instead of NPs and PAs for a reason, and that's because the job is complicated and the training is doing something useful.

The problem is about to get much worse.

If professors were afraid to fail an underperforming URM in 2010, imagine how much more afraid they'd be in 2020. Once the new crop of doctors hits the market, it's going to start looking pretty bad.