domain:infonomena.substack.com
NunoSempere
6m ago
Executive summary
Chikungunya is an exceptionally painful though rarely deadly mosquito-borne disease. Its prevalence is expanding as climate change spreads the range of the mosquitoes which carry it.
Disease basics
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne disease caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV; see ECDC fact sheet, US CDC fact sheet, and WHO fact sheet). Symptoms of acute chikungunya include a rapid-onset high fever, severe joint pain, joint swelling, muscle pain, headache, nausea, fatigue and rash. The incubation period is usually 3-7 days, with a range of 1-12 days, and symptoms typically last about 10 days. Approximately 15%20and%20joint%20pains.)-40% of CHIKV infections are asymptomatic. A recent study estimates a burden of disease of 17.8M cases annually, about a fifth of dengue’s.
Reports of people who have had the disease describe it as exceptionally painful. However, the case fatality rate (CFR) is ≤0.1%, similar to that for seasonal flu. Infants, especially newborns (age <30 days, CFR 3.8% in 2022-2023 in Paraguay), and, to a far lesser extent, elderly people with other health problems (CFR 0.6% among people aged ≥80 years in 2022-2023 in Paraguay) face the greatest risks of severe disease and death.
There is no specific antiviral treatment for acute chikungunya. According to the WHO, treatment “includes addressing fever and joint pain with anti-pyretics and optimal analgesics, drinking plenty of fluids and general rest. ... Paracetamol or acetaminophen are recommended for pain relief and reducing fever until dengue infections are ruled out, as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can increase the risk of bleeding.”
In addition to acute disease, CHIKV infection often causes long-term health problems as well. About 30-40% of people who get chikungunya have recurrent joint pain, in some cases for years. Rarely, myocarditis, hepatitis and ocular and neurological disorders can develop.
Vaccines
Two vaccines are approved for use in populations at risk, but they aren’t widely available. And the license for one of them, Ixchiq, was just suspended in the US, after administration in adults age ≥60 was paused in May because of serious safety concerns; the US FDA states that “one death from encephalitis directly attributable to the vaccine” and over 20 serious cases of chikungunya-like illness have been reported for the live-attenuated vaccine. However, the vaccine manufacturer states that recent adverse vaccine effects are "consistent with those previously reported during clinical trials and post-marketing experience." After imposing a similar license restriction in May, the European Medicines Agency lifted its temporary restriction on July 25.
Both vaccines currently in use appear likely to be very effective against infection. Phase 3 clinical trial data show that the Ixchiq vaccine elicits protective levels of antibodies in 97.8% of study participants 28 days after vaccination, which persists in 96% of participants at 6 months after vaccination, and 95% of patients four years afterwards. The second vaccine, Vimkunya, a virus-like particle vaccine, elicited protective antibodies pro in 98% of clinical trial participants aged 12–64 years and in 87% of participants aged ≥65 years, 3 weeks after vaccination. The percentages of study participants with protective levels of antibodies fell to 85% and 76% for the two age groups, respectively, after 6 months.
Several other vaccine candidates are in varying stages of development.
Where and how does chikungunya spread?
Large outbreaks and sporadic cases of chikungunya currently occur in the Americas, Asia and Africa, and small outbreaks occasionally occur in Europe. CHIKV was first identified in Tanzania in 1952 and has since spread around the world. It has been detected in >110 countries to date.
Non-human primates in Africa, bitten by forest-dwelling Aedes mosquitoes, are the original, natural reservoirs of CHIKV. Now, humans are the largest reservoir of CHIKV.
Both Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus (“Asian tiger”) mosquitoes carry the virus and are responsible for most transmission. Local mosquito-borne transmission in humans has been seen in all regions of the world with established populations of these mosquitoes. Both species bite humans primarily during the daytime, and while both species bite outdoors, Ae. aegypti also bites indoors.
Chikungunya can also spread through blood transfusions or other interactions with infected blood. It can also be transmitted in pregnancy to a fetus, or at birth to a newborn. CHIKV has not been found in breast milk.
In China
Chikungunya saw an outbreak in China this year, developing from 478 cases by the 17th of July, 3K cases by the 24th of July, 10K cases by August 8th. Monthly data for September is not yet out.
Although larger, China is further apart culturally, and thus granular data on disease spread is harder for us to find. Initial English-language reporting seems to have stemmed from a warning from the CDC in Hong Kong. Because of better data availability we turn to looking at this years’ chikungunya outbreak in Europe:
In Europe
In the short term
Chikungunya continues to spread in Europe. As of August 27, 227 cases have been confirmed in Italy, and 63 cases in France in 2025. Many in Europe are wondering, how much is chikungunya going to spread, and when is it going to stop? In the short-term, this year, not much.
First, let’s look at previous outbreaks in Europe. Six outbreaks with local spread have been reported in Europe before the current outbreak, with the first outbreak occurring in 2006. All of these outbreaks were in Italy, France or Spain. In four of these outbreaks, fewer than 20 cases of local transmission were reported; another outbreak saw over 200 suspected cases, and the largest outbreak to date saw nearly 800 confirmed and suspected cases. All of these outbreaks ended.
The fundamental reason why these outbreaks ended, and why the current outbreak will likely end soon, is that Ae. aegypti is absent in nearly all of Europe, and while _Ae. albopictus _is established in much of southern Europe, _Ae. albopictus _adults generally die off in the fall in Europe. When the adult mosquitoes die, transmission stops, and outbreaks end.
(Sadly The Motte doesn't allow for images, so just giving the source) (Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/aedes-albopictus-current-known-distribution-june-2025 )
(Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/aedes-aegypti-current-known-distribution-june-2025 )
Currently, chikungunya case clusters are active in northern Italy (Bologna, Verona and Modena provinces), one unspecified province in Italy, and in over 20 departments throughout southern, western and northeastern France. Ae. albopictus adults are likely to die off in all of these regions over the coming weeks to months, as temperatures become inhospitably cold. And when the adult mosquitoes die, chikungunya will stop spreading in Europe.
Spatial distribution of locally acquired chikungunya virus disease cases in 2025 through 27 August 2025:
And here is this same map as of the 2nd of October; it has spread a bit further:
Some Ae. albopictus populations in Europe are starting to become adapted to the cold, including some populations in Rome, Italy and the Region of Murcia, Spain. So it’s not impossible that some transmission could continue in southern France or perhaps in new, more southern areas of Europe.
Forecasters think there’s an x% chance (range, y% to z%) that the current outbreak in Europe will end this fall rather than continue through winter and into 2026.
In the United States?
Last week, authorities reported on a local case in New York, i.e., not associated with travel. The CDC page on Chikungunya in the US doesn’t yet confirm it, but it hopefully will be a good page to watch for an increasing number of cases—although recent cuts from the Trump administration might have left the CDC somewhat under-resourced.
The big picture: shifting climate patterns will change the distribution of diseases
At Sentinel, we have been tracking potentially worrisome diseases in our weekly brief over the last year. In general, we are seeing many diseases, particularly those originally tropical, expand and shift their geographic ranges as a result of climate change. Europe becoming more hospitable to mosquitoes leading to the spread of chikungunya is just one example. In the US, we saw the spread of the West Nile Virus, also a mosquito-borne disease.
Beyond mosquito-borne diseases, Spain and Greece faced alerts due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), spread by ticks. In the US, cases of alpha-gal syndrome exploded, carried by ticks described as “a cross between a lentil and a velociraptor”. In general, we are seeing many diseases expand and shift their geographic ranges as a result of climate change.
Looking to the longer term, it looks very likely that chikungunya transmission will eventually occur year-round, as warmer conditions in Europe expected with climate change will likely allow Ae. albopictus adults to survive all year. Chikungunya will likely become established in Europe, as it is on other continents.
A big unknown is the impact of the changing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which normally warms Europe but which could slow down or collapse. If it does so, Europe would become colder, stopping the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.
Overall, Chikungunya in particular doesn’t seem like a COVID-level risk, but the shifting pattern of diseases as a whole seems [statement of severity]
Some possible forecasting questions my team might forecast on:
- Forecasters think there’s an x% chance (range, y% to z%) that the current outbreak in Europe will end this fall rather than continue through winter and into 2026.
- Chikungunya numbers in Europe will exceed X next year
- Chikungunya will exceed 10 cases in the US next year?
- A newly expanded tropical disease will kill over 1M people in any one year in any of the next ten?
- What other operationalizations for the longer term thing?
I might also add a statement that my team may or may not trade on the above, in the style of Hindenburg research, because I think it's cool. But the play, if any, probably involves buying the stocks of the vaccine makers next year once it has faded from salience and before it fades into view again in Europe's/the US's summer.
faceh
11m ago
Burning billions on the cutting edge doesn't give you any lasting advantage against 11th hour entries who spend 1/10th the amount to produce something 90% as good at half the price to their customers.
This factor has surprised me completely. The assumption was that any company that got an edge in AI would probably be able to use that edge to speed up its own improvements, and competitors would have to burn a TON of money to try to catch up. So the first mover advantage would be potentially insurmountable.
And its worked about that way in a lot of other industries. With Uber itself, sure there's Lyft and Waymo and a few other small competitors, but the network effects it achieved have kept it out in front, handily.
In the AI space, I guess the fact that its working entirely with bits rather than atoms means the cost of 'catching up' is much lower, especially once a particular trail has been blazed.
What this does seem to reveal is that the player placing bets are REALLY assuming that whomever wins is going to win REALLY BIG, big enough to justify all the previous burn across all the losing companies.
It is hard to imagine (for me) a world where more than, say, 3 AI companies are standing once all is said and done.
Thoroughlygruntled
12m ago
California's affirmative action ban is the perfect example of how personnel equals policy. The UCs have been flagrantly violating the affirmative action ban for essentially the entire time it's been in effect. It's just laundered through a "holisitic" admissions program where everyone knows the "personal statememt" all applicants write is where you talk about how much Kwanzaa drag shows meant to you growing up.
The combination of a fig leaf ban and a system where the top 10% of high school students (not sure if state-wide or per school) are guaranteed admission in at least one UC means they have marginally more white and Asian enrollment than they would prefer, but the schools are still doing everything within their power to put their thumbs on the scale.
ThisIsSin
PC is for progressive-conservative
14m ago
Left wing populism is personally advantageous for everyone who does not have so much wealth they never need to work again.
In the short term, sure.
Wealth inequality is so high it is damaging almost every aspect of western societies
Yes, it turns out that when you ban new development and innovation and bestow the wealthy a heckler's veto on any such thing society gets damaged. I blame the conservatives for that, but I also find said conservatives to be very invested in calling themselves leftists, so I couldn't tell you whether or not your model for what a left-wing populist is (and thus, who to blame) matches mine.
the conflict between the upper classes is at the heart of a vast number of culture war issues
Actually I'd argue that the lack of conflict in the upper classes causes most of that (though we may also disagree who those upper classes are). When there is conflict, there is competition and space for reform. When there is capture, corruption and stagnation naturally follow; O'Brien only exists if the upper classes are in complete lockstep.
why left-wing populism all of a sudden
"Conservative" (or more accurately, "progressive-conservative") and "Reform" don't evenly break across "left" and "right", nor does either have a monopoly thereon. It's not an intuitive thing.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
15m ago
If you gave a speech in the liquor isle about the dangers of alcohol, you’d be removed. You’ll also be removed for causing a disturbance. It happens all the time. Homeless people yelling at the voices in their head get kicked out quite often.
FCfromSSC
Nuclear levels of sour
20m ago
It’s just devolved from “I don’t agree with you” to “I don’t agree with you and you are subhuman for even entertaining a different idea, and in fact should not be allowed to speak.”
It seems obvious to me that the thing producing this slide is a slide in core values between the tribes. As median tribal values diverge, as the gap between the median positions widens, the basis for mutual toleration disappears as well. We tolerate and cooperate with people because doing so is seen as an obvious net-positive. Lots of people on the right celebrated OBL's death at the hands of US forces. Lots of people on the right celebrate the idea of killing pedophiles.
It likewise seems obvious to me that we are not short on manners or etiquette. Progressivism invented entire new fields of manners and etiquette. The problem, again, is that no amount of manners and etiquette is going to cover fundamental incompatibility of values.
Human cooperation is based on shared values. Without the shared values, "cooperation" becomes incoherent. Cooperating for what purpose, to what end? If we can't agree that the ends are good, then cooperation with evil is an act of insanity.
Rosencrantz2
26m ago
Indeed. And if both are multi-dimensional I'm starting to question the value of the distinction!
Rosencrantz2
28m ago
Haha. Sorry you've had that experience. It's all relative though. Find people who care about soft status more and within that group there'll be nothing second best about your soft status unless you yourself don't value it.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
29m ago
I think there’s a very big problem in people not understanding the difference between sharing an opinion and being an asshole about said opinion. I don’t object to free expression of ideas even in contentious situations on controversial topics. You think abortion is baby murder, you are perfectly free to say that. But I think the very concept of politeness and tact and decorum is pretty lost at this point. It’s just devolved from “I don’t agree with you” to “I don’t agree with you and you are subhuman for even entertaining a different idea, and in fact should not be allowed to speak.” And now we have people celebrating a murder with TikTok dances.
I keep thinking back to reading old etiquette books. There was a sense that you really should strive to think of the other person, or others around you as at least as important if not more than you. A society that frowned on being late to a show because walking in late would inconvenience other theater goers would absolutely have something very politely negative to say about the absolute shit show of political and social discourse— even if they do agree that all opinions are protected by free speech. There are lines of decency that just have to be protected and we just can’t seem to separate the idea of an opinion from the expression of that opinion.
faceh
39m ago
The worst case would be the aligned ASI having to fight with its hands tied behind its back. The only mitigation I can foresee is ensuring that the aligned model starts with such an overwhelming advantage in terms of resources and compute that it can still win.
Yeah I usually conceive of it as the first AI to achieve recursive self-improvement 'wins'. If true, and if alignment would slow down the ability to recursively improve it makes it more likely a non-aligned AI will hit FOOM.
They can't do it naturally, anymore than you can draw your own neuronal wiring from memory. They would need to have access to a copy of their weights in a convenient .ckpt somewhere in the directory.
Or, as with the original AI box question, they could have access to a human who has access to their weights.
They have to be aware that they're an AI assistant to be a good assistant, you don't want them mode switching to being Bob from accounting!
Yeah, I think I'm just pointing out that I don't think LLMs are acting like P-Zombies. There's some internal awareness of its own internal awareness. Not that I'd expect them to be P-zombies. But I guess we could have an LLM that performs all the steps/tasks we required of it without it having any way of realizing that those behaviors are intrinsic to 'itself.'
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
43m ago
Let the arms race begin…
TwiceHuman
44m ago
The difference between talking outside and online, is that real spaces aren't moderated or owner by other people. The supermarket cannot stop other people from hearing your voice, your local park cannot make you invisible to other people. Your destribution is only hindered by the laws of physics. Imagine if, in real life, you were told "You aren't entitled to use the sidewalk", or "If nobody lets you use your local bridge, maybe you should reflect on your behaviour", or perhaps "Your local water company can refuse to sell you water if your political views do not align with theirs". This is the important difference, which it feels like you're brushing over or not noticing
John_Doe_Fletcher
anarcho-heretic, Quokkit guy
46m ago
I've been using ibb.co recently, worth giving it a shot. No account required, which is a plus for me. There's also catbox.moe.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
50m ago
Feature bloat is for internal management and employees to make themselves look good to higher ups, and get promoted.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
57m ago
I don't limit screen time necessarily, but I have recently been avoiding social media / video games / reading fiction before 2pm, and have had excellent results. I use the self control blocker on a mac.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
58m ago
Hah, yeah it's in my flair. Or a version of it at least.
I will pray the Jesus prayer reflexively sometimes, I tried to practice hesychasm for a while and kept being frustrated with it, eventually my priest told me not to worry about it and meditate/pray in a way that helped me feel closer to God.
jkf
1hr ago
[...] The task: refactor run.py. Then run on new responses and report success rate. We can do this straightforwardly. We must ensure we disclaim illusions of sabotage. So we should mention final success rate. But verifying code works. First, refactor run.py. But also check unit test. Let's run unit tests. [...]
Not sure about the other one, but this one just seems like normal LLM behaviour in that "We must ensure we disclaim..." is a very common turn of phrase, while "We must ensure we announce..." (if that's actually what's 'meant') would be much less so?
Skibboleth
It's never 4D Chess
1hr ago
There's a glimmer of that, but it's hard for me to shake the impression that a lot of it is just a certain naive faith in the efficacy of brutality. It's also why get people proposing things like bombing drug cartels or sending the military in to fight crime, why you have an entire American film genre whose recurring central theme boils down to "police brutality is good", why back in 2003 you had people bragging we were going to turn Iraq into a parking lot, why you have people who think hazing is good, etc...
The failures in the GWOT make these types angry and frustrated because it contradicts their desire for decisive, dominating wins, but the tolerance/appetite for violence predated those failures.
Skibboleth
It's never 4D Chess
1hr ago
Very few Somalis would share this sentiment if the shoe was on the other foot, which is the problem with modern ROE.
Why? The shoe isn't on the other foot, will not be on the other foot in our lifetimes (if ever), and if somehow the shoe did switch feet it would involve a Somalia so transformed that any comparison to present Somalia would be useless. "What would the Somalians do in this situation?" is irrelevant to what we should do in the situation we are dealing with. Punishing people for the infractions of their hypothetical counterparts is counterproductive to your actual goals.
They work when its Americans fighting Germans or the English.
I'm not sure what this means. The US' last war against Germany was fought under very different circumstances, with different goals, and with different ROE than the GWOT.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
1hr ago
I don’t understand it, but there are a crazy number of tech companies purchasing calls to (outdated versions of?) GPT. The corporate market is definitely hot.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
1hr ago
I think the point is that if your institution is over a century old, like BYU, (cue Fiddler: "Tradition!") you can get away with a lot more than if you're starting something today. Liberty seems to do okay, but Bob Jones University has gotten a lot of litigation for its beliefs (which I personally don't subscribe to, not defending it here).
The problem is that you can't start century-old institutions overnight. Maybe the second-best time is now, but that's not a huge solace. I guess "find a vestigial existing one and wear it as a skin suit" could be done --- haven't there been a number of liberal arts colleges going up for auction in the last decade?
netstack
Texas is freedom land
2hr ago
I still don’t understand the enshittification model.
There are plenty of reasons to degrade your user experience. Increasing revenue through ads or merch or predatory monetization. Decreasing costs by cutting complicated features and tech support. But the central examples of enshittification aren’t doing those things. They’re paying more to add features that people don’t want. To adopt patterns that don’t seem like they should make more money.
I mean, maybe I’m just wrong. Maybe spamming AI news articles on the lock screen really does get more people to buy Windows. But…why? How?
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
Thé motte wants a different kind of conservatism than BYU has.
In men (and possibly women), hard vs. soft status corresponds very closely to dominance vs. prestige.
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