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More of a joke, I guess -- I wrote it, but I intentionally added the contrasting statements.

Self-demonstrating post?

I notice that there's a line on the Contact Us page reading:

"If you can see this line, we haven't been contacted by any law enforcement or governmental organizations in 2023 yet."

That's true. People always bring their personalities to their worldviews -- in ways that can support or negate their ideology. I was a humanistic, analytical, but morally scrupulous atheist who didn't settle for easy answers, then I became a humanistic, analytical, and morally scrupulous Christian who doesn't settle for easy answers (within my tradition).

But who this really brings to mind is my girlfriend's cousin, who was a self-obsessed, judgmental atheist, and then became a self-obsessed, judgmental Catholic. She has determined that the Catholic emphasis on "the good, the true, and the beautiful" obviously means that her natural beauty is extremely important. She writes essays about moral degredation and how everyone needs to RETVRN to the purity of the Catholic faith, but she's a divorcee. She was conceived through IVF, and has seen fit to continually punish her mother for this sin, but according to my girlfriend, she's lost custody of her own children! (Which is rare, typically mothers get custody.)

When I think about LARPers, spiritual seekers who try to command traditions rather than be formed by them, I really do think about her.

Dreher has always struck me as the kind of guy who desperately needs to stop reading the news, but can't help himself. There's something very tragic about a guy who wrote a book about setting up islands of peace away from the mess of the world, but whose output is mostly hot takes on current events.

This feels totally AI to me. And not just AI, this is ChatGPT. Especially the contrasting statements -- ChatGPT loves those. It's not a style. It's a fingerprint.

They offered us a small bag of spice and salt to dip the pomelo segments into, and eating it like that made it far more of a savoury affair. It's interesting! I'm actually not sure why this method of eating fruit hasn't caught on more outside of Southeast Asia

Well, South Asia isn't that far away, but I can tell you that dipping unripe mangoes in rock salt and spices is a sublime experience.

I believe there is a kind of consensus around celibacy within certain radical feminist communities—particularly the 6B4T framework.

It stands for:

No marriage with men. No dating men. No giving birth to children with men. No sex with men. Reject the corset. Reject the image promoted by otaku culture. Reject idol culture. Reject religion.

Women in this community are, in a sense, committed to celibacy. That said, the movement is highly decentralized, so it’s difficult to categorize it as a religious organization in any traditional sense.

I needed something to read, and this might be it. Only a few pages in, and he's thrashing phonics, so he's on to something.

I would be surprised if that's how it actually worked in the US.

At least in the UK, admitting suicidal ideation isn't a route to involuntary commitment by itself. I'd know, I've told my GP and psychiatrist about mine. All the cases I've seen admitted sought admission themselves, and it's only involuntary in situations such as someone found during/after a suicide attempt, and even then we can't hold them for very long. Patient autonomy counts for a lot here.

If you tell a shrink that you're having thoughts about offing yourself, they'll likely attempt to treat depression. If you tell them you've got the knife and a note ready, then that's a whole different kettle of fish.

NBC Boston had a docuseries on it: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/life-liberty-and-the-pursuit-of-new-hampshire-an-nbc10-boston-original/2920007/ There's also a documentary called Libertopia: https://youtube.com/watch?v=PXSw0nYKiU8

But most of my insight comes from talking to Freestaters directly. And since it is still going strong, you can just go to their events and talk to them: https://www.fsp.org/

You may also find books criticizing the project, like A Libertarian Walks Into a Bear but I find most criticism of the endeavor from a left wing point of view to be uninteresting since it just devolves into a political argument about the value of the State rather than an analysis of the tactics.

It screams AI to me. I've used most models enough on writing, both fictional and not, to know some of their hallmarks. The bit you've highlighted makes me groan a little every time I catch it in the wild.

It's not that there aren't real humans who write that way, but these days, my money is on an LLM.

I could see it becoming less effective in the near future as it becomes associated with AI; AI draining dry the collective pool of effective rhetoric.

Yes there are a lot of considerations, that was my point.

I'm really not sure where you are going for this.

I used to see that a fair bit back when I was reading bloggers who were trained in marketing. My impression is that it's a reasonably common and effective style, though not on the message boards I prefer, such as this one.

If democratic principles include sending in the military to crush dissent, no system isn't democratic.

That's interesting. I read a lot of Rod probably eight years ago, though even then he was a bit inconsistent, and wrote way too much chaff, making it hard to find the wheat. I would go to his AC blog on my lunch break, and there would be a half dozen new posts, five of which were just blatant culture warring, but it wasn't instantly clear which ones. So I gave up reading him, especially when he moved to Substack, and I didn't care to subscribe. But I was still very much in the bubble that was interested in his work, and my church did a book study about The Benedict Option. I tried looking up what happened, but he's very vague about the whole thing, and seems to be almost entirely paywalled now.

so what?

Accusations of LARPing are accusations of insincerity. It depends on what you think the LARPer is really after.

In the original usage, the professed belief is "I can throw lightning bolts." There's no secret genuine belief that can make it look good.

In the Wager example, the professed belief is "I believe in God," but the genuine belief is "I should believe in God." These are pretty compatible, so calling it a LARP loses its sting. Your defense has worked.

Let's say I'm professing "I believe in God," except I'm running a con and my true belief is "You should give me your tithe money." If I'm called out, I can't exactly use "fake it 'til you make it!" as a defense. The fact that my project is LARP-y is very relevant.

Has everyone else been seeing this kind of cadence, short sentences and contrasting statements? I keep seeing this and thinking AI. How do others see it? Do you think it's suddenly become more prominent too?

The plan was smart:

•ISVs to move rifle squads quickly

•LRVs to give Cavalry squadrons mobility and sensors

•M10 Bookers to restore firepower to the dismounted fight. It wasn’t perfect, but it made the IBCT relevant again.

Now the Army has canceled the M10. The LRV is nowhere in sight. And what’s left? An “MBCT” concept with no protected firepower, no recon platform, and a few light vehicles. This isn’t transformation. It’s disarmament.

The M10 solved a real problem. So did the LRV. Killing the platforms without replacing the capability isn’t reform. It’s regression.

A woman who is genuinely worse off by all possible metrics has no option but to simply settle for less (or not settle at all.) Same logic as profoundly ugly men. But most people have at least something they're exceptional in, and can derive comparative advantage from. Maximize whatever that is. It doesn't matter if you're competing against X other women for X-Y men that care about that trait, it's better than competing against every other woman for traits everyone is looking and optimizing for.

(All of this logic works the same way swapping "women" and "men." It's what I consciously applied to find my current girlfriend.)

Aren't off-label prescriptions ~25% of all prescriptions? And doesn't applying for FDA approval de facto require a positive return to be expected before the patent expires? And NICE and other meta-analyses came to the same conclusion as Cochrane. And CBT-I isn't FDA approved, either.

CBT-I is cheap and found to be effective in a variety of studies

But what proportion of studies finding positive result is sufficient and what control problems are acceptable? If only a borderline majority of studies are positive and better controlled studies are less likely to have positive results, shouldn't we assign a low probability to a treatment being effective, rather than a high probability?

Do you have any tips on where one might read about the outcomes of the free state project? I thought it was an interesting idea, but I never really knew what became of it.

Depending on one's view of the soviet union, it could be categorized as either a hostile jungle or a laboratory, but in any case it is not a laboratory of democracy. America's special status, and special success, comes from the fact that both the experiments and the laboratory at large are managed under democratic principles.

It's a distinction of Sense versus Reference. The California hippie who travels the world in search of spiritual wisdom and winds up adopting (say) Tibetan Buddhism is not doing the same thing as the Tibetan layman who practices Buddhism because that's just what their people do.

Which is all well and good, since Buddhism has a core that is (purportedly) true regardless of how one arrives at it. But the irony of "trad-LARPing" comes in when the ideology has no substance or justification other than its supposed traditional status, i.e. tradition-qua-tradition, something of the form: "This society has lost its way because there are too many individualists, people who think they know better than they did in the good old days. Therefore it falls to me, the lone heroic seeker, to forsake mainstream society and devote my life to poring through the ancient tomes (the more ancient the better) in search of the one true ideology." This is the same mindset as that of the wandering hippie, a mindset which (I claim) is more persistent and fundamental to one's character than any particular ideology which one may adopt.

I think your thesis is is worthless because it is both wrong and vapid. Any LARP that doesn't amount to anything? Well they just weren't determined enough to do it longer. It is completely unfalsifiable in the same way as a conspiracy theory normally is. And it doesn't matter how determined and for how long the cargo cults worship John Frum--the cargo is not coming back and it hasn't turned into something more.

Though I think if I take the essence of the idea it can still be applied in some cases. I'm thinking more of the transformations of the norms of communities though. Take for example both Something Awful's forums and 4chan (years ago). Both were places where being edgy and transgressive through things like being as offensive as possible was the norm as a form of counter-culture of contrarianism. Then on SA some people started being meta-contrarian (contrarian to the prevailing board culture), but were probably not being really sincere. Then other people that were not in on the joke followed along and eventually it turned into the neo-puritan society complete with witchhunts that was completely ideologically opposed to the site that the forum is based off of and the entire rest of the forums. Then this spread to /r/srs and snowballed further and further and now the modal progressive on Bluesky would be absolutely horrified that the origins of their ideology was incubated on a site that made fun of JeffK.

4chan had a similar culture and was initially made up of Something Awful diaspora. However, instead of the contraposition becoming the dominate culture the racism-as-shibboleth attracted enough honest racists that were not in on the joke. Eventually, it became enough of a problem that they were quarantined to /pol/, but this obviously did not contain them. And in a very similar way you can still see the echoes of this in various parts of the online right, but I don't think they are particularly ashamed of it.