domain:forecasting.substack.com
MadMonzer
Epstein Files must have done something really awful for so many libs to want him released.
4hr ago
with a good deal of physical courage.
What makes you say that? The main thing we know about Trump's physical courage or lack thereof is that he dodged the draft.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
4hr ago
The Nutmeg of Consolation.
Its hard to read these books, knowing the series is coming to an end. Where do I go from here?
JarJarJedi
5hr ago
But they don't compete. They blend. Her grandpa hated the Jews and she hates the Jews. His grandpa knew the country can be only saved if certain troublesome groups are eliminated and the political debate is curtailed - and he knows the same. It's not a competition, it's an evolution.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
5hr ago
Well Japanese but it's everyone else's first language. In places like Namba (a heavily touristed enclave of Osaka) probably Chinese and Korean, not necessarily in that order. I've also met down there Germans and French and one Italian couple. Not as many English speakers around as there seem to have been in previous years, though English is probably the second language go-to for most Japanese. I also hear spatterings of Vietnamese and occasional Urdu (?) as there's a Pakistani extended family around town.
TowardsPanna
5hr ago
Nassim Taleb's books.
Muninn
"Dick Laurent is dead."
5hr ago
Book of the Dead 3: Masquerade by RinoZ. Pretty confident that #4 will be up next on my reading list.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
5hr ago
"Due to the federal shutdown", data.census.gov is not responding to queries. You may want to ask again when the shutdown has ended.
felipec
unbelief
6hr ago
This sounds a lot like "any snow flake is free to slide down the mountain, it is the avalanches that are the problem".
Snow flakes are not susceptible to social contagion.
Suppose there is a baker who runs an "Aryan Bakery" with a swastika in the logo, which is something which is very permissible from a freedom of speech point of view.
By making that claim you are proving my point.
An Aryan Bakery has nothing to do with Open Ideas, because there's no idea being expressed or defended.
Therefore it has nothing to do with the reasoning behind freedom of speech, which was all about ideas that could potentially benefit society.
The fact that you believe an Aryan Bakery has anything to do with actual freedom of speech shows the need for Open Ideas.
EdenicFaithful
Dark Wizard of Ravenclaw
6hr ago
So, what are you reading?
Still on The Eternal Dissident: Rabbi Leonard I. Beerman and the Radical Imperative to Think and Act.
It seems strange that a Rabbi would proclaim himself agnostic and have his first sermon be about how Adam ought to have eaten the whole fruit of knowledge and not just part of it, but I have to agree with the introduction that there is an authenticity to it. Beerman, if he is to be believed, was inspired by the Spinozan God-as-nature idea, and argued that authentic doubt can be a religious stance.
The tropes fit perfectly into today's leftism: social justice, activism, inequality, racism, oppression, but these things must have made a different impression before Current Year. Various dubious aspects pepper the narrative, like support for the Rosenbergs. If there's one thing I've taken away from it, it is the reminder that I'm not exactly a church-goer myself, and that perhaps a renewed study of my relation to God is in order.
felipec
unbelief
6hr ago
white supremacists are generally conflict theorists as well.
Let's look at some criteria and see how many apply to white supremacists:
- Conflict theorists treat politics as war. I don't see how that applies to white supremacists.
- Conflict theorists view debate as having a minor clarifying role at best. Doesn't apply.
- Conflict theorists treat the asymmetry of sides as their first and most important principle. Irrelevant.
- Conflict theorists think this is more often a convenient excuse than a real problem. Nothing to do with white supremacists.
- Conflict theorists think you can save the world by increasing passion. Nope.
- For a conflict theorist, intelligence is inadequate or even suspect. Definitely not.
- Conflict theorists think of free speech and open debate about the same way a 1950s Bircher would treat avowed Soviet agents coming into neighborhoods and trying to convince people of the merits of Communism. No.
- Conflict theorists think that stopping George Soros / the Koch brothers is the most important thing in the world. Nope.
- Conflict theorists think racism is a conflict between races. Ironically, no.
- When conflict theorists criticize democracy, it’s because it doesn’t give enough power to the average person – special interests can buy elections, or convince representatives to betray campaign promises in exchange for cash. No.
So the claim that "white supremacists are generally conflict theorists" doesn't seem to hold any water.
Your mistake is that you assumed "conflict theory vs. mistake theory" was isomorphic to the two sides of the culture war; it's not.
That's definitely a claim, but you have not substantiated it.
felipec
unbelief
6hr ago
They can try, and they might temporarily succeed, but eventually they'll lose, because truth always wins in the long run.
That's precisely what most freedom of speech thinkers argued.
Also, it's not 2020, in 2025 social justice warriors are losing the culture war. The newer generations are not buying their propaganda any more.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
6hr ago
There was a former Nazi official serving as the Bundeskanzler at one point.
Turniper
7hr ago
At the end of the day, getting married is a leap of trust. Some people figure out they are aligned in values and take the plunge early, trusting in mutual commitment to make it work. Others move as slowly as my fiancee and I did, and the official commitment is just recognition of a trust and commitment that already exists. At the end of the day, all you need to figure out is when you reach the point that you believe the two of you are on the same page about what a life together should look like, and how much you are willing to work and compromise in order to bring that dream into reality. The appropriate timeline for you will be greatly dependent on the potential spouse you are considering. Don't think about when you need to leap into bed as an answer you need to have worked out, but as a chance to build or test that level of trust and communication you need to develop to make a marriage work. If you wait too long and she dips because of it without giving you a chance to fix the issue, well, marriage wouldn't have worked out anyway.
ChickenOverlord
7hr ago
All good bro, thanks for all you do to run this place!
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
8hr ago
This is true, but it makes no difference. The suppression of their views was thorough enought hat whatever secret views they might have held in the back of their minds could not compete with the decidedly un-suppressed leftist tendencies of German society.
pigeonburger
8hr ago
English is #2, and my gut feeling us #3 is Arabic, though the dated info I find puts Italian slightly ahead of it.
hydroacetylene
8hr ago
What are the most common second and third languages around you?
Where I'm at Spanish is obviously #2, but Vietnamese is #3. I think Arabic is probably the fourth- the various dialects of India are too... various to bump either of those.
JarJarJedi
8hr ago
Post-war Germany adopted this, at the Allies' command, and went full hog
Yes, but. Initially, the former Nazis were hard suppressed. Then, they were softly and quietly let back into the normal life. Of course, no openly proclaiming their views allowed ever, but you could be, e.g., ex-Nazi - especially if it's low level position - and hold a government job. Even be a lawyer or a judge. I assume most of them are dead by now, but how ironic would it be if an ex-Nazi judge would imprison a Jew under the censorship laws meant to prevent the recurrence of Nazi atrocities?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Root for the Eagles today, I'm at the linc. If any of our Philly bros are in attendance hit me up for a beer. Go birds.
JarJarJedi
8hr ago
See, that's the difference. The left feels, with no supporting evidence (not that any were ever necessary), that the right wants to kill them. The right knows, on many past examples and repeated, incessant public confessions of the leftists themselves, that the left wants to kill them. And not only wants but does.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
9hr ago
Pre-19th century art. For any scene, type scene + renaissance/medieval into google. Can use any terminology related to European art, but ignore everything Romantic and onward. Or even neoclassical and onward. With the exceptions of like William Blake and Gustave Dore it’s junk. For the passion, you can type in any phrase and find accompanying art. There’s probably at least 1000 individual pieces for every sentence of the passion
https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/464349
There’s a cool collection of art with descriptions by a Jewish educational fund, too: https://talivisualmidrash.org.il/en/home/
This is less entertaining than a movie, but each piece is greater than any individual frame of a movie. Religious movies just never capture reverence or awe well.
Someone should devise a website that combines the best art, music, poetry and commentaries onto one web page for every scene in the Bible. That would be awesome.
ulyssessword
9hr ago
actually knowing how the mechanics work is a game-breaking superpower
See The Power of Ten for an exploration of that. TL;DR of every book in the series: The MC is a gamer dropped into a (real) world that runs on that game's logic. By using their (relatively modest) starting boost and (absurdly OP) mechanical knowledge, they grow powerful, save the world, and ascend to immortality.
I'm not sure about recommending that series based on its merits, but it absolutely 100% demonstrates that point.
Corvos
9hr ago
Old Testament, but The Promised Land is fun and free on Youtube:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=HSI04-1oLwg
The travails of Moses and the Israelites in the desert, done in the style of the Office. Funny without being a piss-take.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
9hr ago
You can do the side content after finishing the story, and unless you want to absolutely rinse the final story boss you should.
...what.
I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Edit: I just realized that the above list of criteria is ripped directly from Scott's original article on conflict vs. mistake theory. While the structure of your argument makes more sense with that context, it also makes the attempt to claim white supremacists aren't conflict theorists even more farcical:
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