domain:cafeamericainmag.com
gattsuru
11hr ago
At one side, he says those things LLMs can do are only "tricks, interesting and impressive moves that fall short of the massive changes the biggest firms in Silicon Valley are promising", at the other, he does specifically challenge whether AI "can translate, diagnose, teach, write poetry, code, etc." (and then chess, and saying that they have reasoning).
Dissolve the definitions, and what's left? Are LLMs competent if they can only do tricks that cause no massive changes? Are they incompetent if it only gets 95% of difficult test questions right and sometimes you have to swap models to deal with a new programming language? Would competence require 100% correctness on all possible questions in a field (literally, "The problem with hallucination is not the rate at which it happens but that it happens at all")?
I'm sure deBoer's trying to squeeze something out, but is there any space that Mounk would possibly agree with him, here? Not just in the question of what a specific real-world experiment's results would be, but even what a real-world experiment would need to look like?
That's probably not perfectly charitable -- I'll admit I really don't like deBoer, and there's probably a better discussion I could have about how his "labor adaptation, regulatory structure, political economy" actually goes if I didn't think the man lying. But I don't think it's a wrong claim, and I don't think it's an unfair criticism of the story he's trying to tell.
While I don’t doubt your take on your friends is correct, there’s a much misunderstood rise of the “right wing hippie” over the last ten years.
The biggest crunchy hippie I know, who’s a huge enthusiast of yoga and has been on the wellness & spirituality kick as long as I’ve known her, is pregnant with her third child in three years, raises chickens in her rural town that she escaped to during covid, and owns several firearms. She 100% voted for Trump and loathes democrats and you’d likely never suspect a thing if you met her.
Same with me; I assume most people just assume I’m a grown up ex-hipster elder millennial who loves slamming craft brews and is somewhat Reddit-coded (barf).
But I am straight up to the right of Franco, 100% Bukele-pilled gringo.
A lot of people got very good at hiding their power level. Basically no one outside my closest friends know anything in detail about my personal & political beliefs, hiding them became second nature during the great awokening.
Almost every person in my wider social circle would be absolutely scandalized if they knew what I believed in. People just assume because I’m smart, courteous and well spoke and I keep my cards close to my best that I agree with them.
NewCharlesInCharge
11hr ago
Having gone through the permanent resident process for my wife, there were a lot of things that were potentially disqualifying that would have been protected activities for citizens. Being a member of the Communist party*, advocating for the overthrow of the American government, etc.
Does permanent resident status confer the right to participate in those activities that could have prevented you from getting that status in the first place?
* This came up and it seemed like not a big deal if the situation was "everyone has to participate in communist activities in China."
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
11hr ago
Maybe. But it did produce this behind the scenes gem. And if Lynch blowing his top on a producer nagging him to make his work more mass market doesn't endear the work to you, it probably is best you move on.
Corvos
11hr ago
One negative review begins:
I have no objections to the content. It is very important to learn how the correct usage of dirty words. However, you must be aware that this book will not improve your pronunciation.
I genuinely can't believe this is a real book.
Rov_Scam
11hr ago
Giving a bone to the truth while slipping in falsehoods and lies is a staple of getting away with a cover-up to begin with, we would expect the official documents to conflict.
Which of the statements I made above do you think are falsehoods?
Why are they lying about the "raw footage" that was clearly edited? Why did the Trump admin officials continually claim there was a list that they were gonna be releasing beforehand?
Because Trump tells his base what he wants to hear and doesn't expect to have his feet held to the fire. He knew damn well all along that there wasn't any evidence that would satisfy whatever wild fantasies his base harbors, so he figured he could make empty promises and then forget about them when it came time to deliver. Except he hired morons like Pam Bondi who might actually be true believers and who like him don't know when to shut up, and all of the sudden people were actually expecting him to release stuff that would blow the case wide open, and the whole thing has turned into quicksand where the more Trump tries to wriggle out the deeper he sinks.
Honestly, I don't really give a shit about Trump's role in the whole thing. Believe me, there's nothing I'd like more than for his entire presidency to be destroyed, but I don't see any actual evidence of malfeasance. I think Trump has a reflex where he tries to automatically put as much distance between himself and anything he thinks will hurt him, to the point where he never stops to consider that there may be definitive contradictory evidence. Then again, maybe he just has a horrible memory. It was the same thing with the Billy Bush pussy tape, where he initially claimed to his staff that he wasn't worried about it because it never happened, and then the tape came out. This is a guy who said that of course he didn't rape E. Jean Carroll because she wasn't hot enough for him to be interested in, only to mistake her for his wife in a photograph. If you're going to ask me for a logical explanation of why Donald Trump or certain people in his administration do things, I don't have an answer for you.
I just don't extend that same level of skepticism to anything that came out before January of this year. Previous administrations, including the first Trump administration, seem to have been run, at least at the "deep state" level, by professionals who largely knew what they were doing. I don't have any reason to believe that the Justice Department Office of Professional Responsibility was, in 2019 and 2020, filled with partisan hacks looking to effect a coverup. I have no evidence that such is the case even now. I haven't seen any "official" evidence that contradicts any unofficial evidence of the same caliber. If you want to argue that something is incorrect, then I welcome your argument. But you can't just dismiss everything out of hand because you don't like the people in charge.
thejdizzler
11hr ago
Don't know why I'm stumbling on this post from /u/satirizedoor now a year later and nearly two years after the original post that I made. I still call myself vegan, but I do eat oysters now. I have come to find most vegans, including my past self, as annoying as you: there is a lack of real reflection as to what the goals of the movement are, and if the individual actions that vegans advocate are actually effective at accomplishing those goals. Total cessation of animal suffering is as impossible as it would be totalitarian (some vegans advocate for GMOing away all predators). Some amount of meat eating will always be part of human culture, and is frankly, indistinguishable and perhaps better than what goes on in the wild. My problem in reality is with industrial factory farming. It would be far better for these animals and the planet if we merely advocated for reduction in meat consumption, but that position isn't really justifiable outside of utilitarianism. Most people are not utilitarian I think, which makes it difficult to advocate for a position that fails on consequentialist/deontological grounds. The fact is that some people don't think animals have moral worth, while others do. There's very little ability to reason across that line, despite pretty good scientific evidence that most farm animals do have some rudimentary reasoning and emotional abilities equivalent to that of a small child. To vegans like myself, this evidence is helpful but rather superfluous. My beliefs about animal consciousness come from personal interactions I've had with animals. For those who aren't vegan, evidence of reasoning and/emotional reactions isn't sufficient evidence of consciousness or moral worth. Being able to solve puzzles or display emotions isn't very good evidence that there's something going on inside of another creature.
I'm still convinced that veganism isn't harmful for performance, at least in endurance sports. Plenty of endurance athletes at the highest levels are at least mostly vegan. However, I think that performance enhancement is a different question that I don't think has really been settled scientifically. There are without a doubt certain plant-based substances that are performance enhancers (beet juice), but I don't think this says anything about the efficacy of the diet as a whole. A cycling YouTuber that I vaguely follow, Dylan Johnson is vegan for recovery reasons, as plant-based diets are apparently much less pro-inflammatory than meat-based diets. I can't say I'm fully convinced by this: I think the real culprit in inflammation may be macronutrient ratios. Diets high in fat, which many vegans also have, seem to be particularly pro-inflammatory, at least in animal models. There's also good evidence that high protein consumption is linked to decreases in lifespan, but again this isn't exclusive to meat-eating populations.
I am more shocked by how skewed most user's idea of a healthy body weight is. I'm closer to 160 now, but a 150 with a height of 6' put me at a very normal BMI of 20. I recognize that this weight makes it very difficult to be a strongman, but that's not my goal, nor the goal of most Americans. It is an absurd position to tell me that I am a twig or emaciated at that weight when I am well within the bounds of a healthy BMI.
NewCharlesInCharge
11hr ago
Localhost:1881
Substack is just processing the Referrer header in the HTTP request that browsers will send when users click a link.
So, someone has links to your Substack on a locally hosted page. Maybe one of our own viewing a locally hosted version of The Motte?
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
11hr ago
I think it’s fair to question the official report, you just need to be clear about what it is you doubt and what evidence points to the conclusion.. If I think the ME is wrong about the hanging, I better be coming with statistics and medical evidence and so on.
Bartender_Venator
11hr ago
Nice, both great films. If you want an interesting experience that will teach you a lot about Lynch's influences, I recommend watching Eraserhead and then Orson Welles' version of The Trial.
MaximumCuddles
The world-spirit texting on the toilet
11hr ago
first they came for the tumblr users, and I did not speak for I was not a tumblr user.
Then they came for the redditors, and I said “Hey, make sure you get all the redditors.”
The median quality of the people becoming doctors compared to lawyers is generally a fair bit higher, so one would expect them to do better. The comparison shouldn't be between the median lawyer and the median doctor, but between a fairly successful lawyer or judge and a doctor.
I have another observation though, and this of course varies by country and specialization, but my impression is that doctors work life is comparatively (in relation to other similar high status white collar professions) "relaxed" a few years after residency, which coincidentally is the same age people usually start gaining weight. If I'm comparing my friends and acquaintances, the ones in private industry seem to work more, harder and with far less stability than the doctors.
A lot of the stressors that exist in other comparable careers don't exist and things are far more stable, for good and ill. Very high salary, ironclad employment security, lifelong employment, clear delineation between work and rest, etc. To me the biggest issue among my doctor friends seems to increasingly be boredom/under stimulation rather than stress.
I also imagine that a lot of the people unsuited to the medicine specific stressors wash out before they actually become doctors due to how the education is structured. You're much more removed from the actual reality of your future career as a law student for example which can lead to nasty surprises.
Corvos
11hr ago
It's just... the world is so beautiful, you know?
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
11hr ago
Topics like this are where my nativist impulses collide with my remaining lolbert ones. Recently, some of the foreign national speakers appear to trying to drag the U.S. (further) into their ethnic battle on the other side of the planet, and I would be quite happy to have far fewer of those types around. Other speakers are criticizing the U.S. for being the Evil Colonizer Empire or the Great Satan, and while they might have their valid points, if America is so bad, then they need to go back whence they came and make those arguments from their home country.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
12hr ago
I think politics is the place where principles go to die most certainly, and tbh, it’s a big reason why I just am reaching the point where I don’t even want to be involved in any of it. Let me grill or read books or watch sports or hike or fish and let someone else decide what we’re going to do about the problems.
zPvQINBQvfFR
12hr ago
I'm pretty sure the real European doctrine for cavalry units in WW2 was to use them as mounted infantry units that dismount and shoot guns during combat.
(The infamous failures of Polish cavalry charging at tanks supposedly didn't actually happen, though they did charge at some infantry formations a couple of times, to mixed results.)
gattsuru
12hr ago
Raceplay is a little more specific than just liking specific race(s) in your porn -- it's usually a sub/dom sorta thing involving racial stereotypes or slurs at the low end, and the more controversial bits tend to get into things like racial slavery roleplay or people being 'corrupted' or 'converted' to a 'lesser' or 'superior' race.
((You'd think this isn't something that would have a furry equivalent, but surprise! ... still extremely marginal even over there, though.))
AmericanSaxeCoburgGothic
Happy to be here! Goal is to post the most exclamation points.
12hr ago
I remember giving someone the definition of rationalist as someone who thinks they're smarter and more logical than other people.
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
12hr ago
Libertarians are most of the reason I no longer have principles. When I was younger, libertarian principles sound awesome. And it's easy to believe that the world would be a better place if everyone followed them.
Unfortunately, like most belief systems, they splatter against the real world, and my entire adult life libertarians have proven themselves to be among the many ratchets built into the system which paradoxically keeps the boot on my neck. It's not their fault. They simply don't understand the world they live in.
Part of this is that "Left Inc" as I've heard it coined, has done such an amazing job of laundering it's soft and hard power outside of any "bill of rights" framework. So you'll often see libertarians defending Corporations, Universities or NGOs for trampling your rights (It's a private entity, it can do whatever it wants!), while they condemn the government for doing the same. Or they'll be a feckless speed hump against the expansion of the welfare state, and crucial allies for open borders, ensuring we get the worse of both worlds.
Their idiosyncratic principles about the increasingly illusory distinctions between public and private actors in practice have left me at the mercy of people who hate me, and offered no succor or relief, or even a theoretical path. So I have discarded them as worse than useless, more akin to an infohazard.
Now, generally I support the causes FIRE has taken up. They've been fighting the good fight against Title IX overreach. To virtually no effect what so ever I might add though. They've helped students here and there sue for damages, but I've never seen them make a university cave and change policy. It took Trump winning the election and cleaning house at the DOE for that to happen. And wouldn't you know it, now they don't appreciate how Trump has attempted to extirpate DEI language and practices from Universities. It leaves one wondering if they actually want the Title IX policies fixed, and what methods of actually fixing them would be acceptable to them. Because their lawsuits sure and shit did nothing.
But that's libertarians in a nut shell. Their world view is that you can ask nicely for people to stop hurting you, but you aren't allowed to infringe on their "rights" to make them stop.
Corvos
12hr ago
erwgv3g34
12hr ago
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
12hr ago
The most locally concerning precedent being set in immigration cases is the requirement that all social media be set to "public". This is essentially leaning towards the abolition of internet anonymity.
I don't see how one classifies "social media" in a way that doesn't include a place like Reddit, TheMotte, or MetalArchives, or my comments on BleedingGreenNation about Nick Sirianni, or the comments from Carolinian politicians on NudeAfrica. No more usernames, everything must be posted publicly.
And while they might only be talking about Facebook or instagram or Twitter initially, and during the visa process they probably won't be extensively cross-referencing non-public information to figure out your anonymous usernames, let alone utilizing stylistic analysis or correlating personal information to doxx you, the catch-22 is potentially really bad: if you lie on your visa application, you have now committed a crime.
And if they want to get rid of you, all they have to do is utilize the various methods available to a government to doxx you, find the comments you made on BloggingTheBoys about how Jerry Jones needs to get his head out of his ass, and boom, they have you.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
12hr ago
But how much do they want that?
Saying “I think St. Thomas was pretty admirable” isn’t the same as putting on the hairshirt yourself.
wayfarer
12hr ago
It's only in WW2 with the infamous polish failures that cavalry was rendered soundly obsolete.
I just want to note that these failures were partially fiction invented by German propaganda.
(also, Wermach being fully mechanized is also a myth, they used far more horses than people know)
IIRC there were still literally millions of horses used by both the Nazis and the Soviets in WWII, and the Nazi invasion of the USSR used more horses than trucks.
But I was under the impression that these uses were more for logistics than for combat, which would make a lot more sense to me. "We're low on oil; we shouldn't forgo transports whose fuel literally grows right out of the ground", yes. "Into the mouth of Hell, Rode the six hundred, But this time they had, A Good feeling about it", no, right?
Or maybe I'm completely wrong. The Nazis took Poland in 5 weeks, so I don't want to give the defense too much credit, but digging into the details it really looks like "using horse-mounted cavalry, even against mechanized infantry" wasn't a problem, it just wasn't good enough to overcome "being simultaneously invaded by two foes with at least twice their population each".
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