Friday
hydroacetylene
4mo ago
Thanks, that’s reasonable. I guess it’s interesting why fish on Friday led to fish being despised as opposed to the development of fish dishes people still like on non-Fridays, as in lots of other Catholic countries(Italy, southern Louisiana, Portugal), but poor fish availability is probably part of it.
hydroacetylene
4mo ago
As a Cajun traditional Catholic, I am well aware of fish on Fridays, and that Ireland was big into Catholicism until very recently.
My question was more ‘why isn’t Ireland known for at least a few fish dishes the way every other coastal population is?’.
nomagicpill
4mo ago
I found this Reddit thread, including this second-to-top answer:
Historically because the English owned the waters, so you couldn’t legally fish as everything was exported.
There’s also the religious aspect where fish was seen as something just to be eaten on Fridays when red meat isn’t allowed.
And also we produce cheap and good quality meat.
hydroacetylene
4mo ago
Continuing my alt hist scenario- epistemic status, considering moving over to an alternate history forum, open to recommendations. https://www.themotte.org/post/1723/friday-fun-thread-for-march-7/306699?context=8#context link to previous.
The Commonwealth-Japanese cold war defined the post Pacific war world; not a difference in ideology(both being capitalist, highly militarized, soft ethnic supremacist constitutional monarchies with large colonial empires), but of the world's preeminent sea power. Commonwealth strategy until the disaster that was the Falklands war centered around confining Japan to the Pacific in order to ensure Commonwealth control of global trade routes; Japan fully intended to secure a route out of the Pacific in order to secure its own control of global trade. Early on, the Japanese diplomatic disadvantage was intense; even though Japan had more ships, the Pacific war had made enemies of Germany, the Netherlands, and Texas, and alienated France, despite its territorial gains. Needing powerful allies, Japan sought out positive relations with Russia and the United States.
Without the disasters of communism and WWII, Russia is much more populous in this timeline(https://akarlin.com/500-million-russians/), and experiences a steadier economic growth cycle to boot. But at this point, it's still poor and backwards compared to the other great powers, and Japanese imports proved essential for building military equipment. The Russian intervention in the Chinese Democratic Socialist People's republic after Mao's famine in the interior demonstrated a revolution in infantry tactics; the new Kalashnikov rifle convinced Germany to produce its STG platform(probably the most common rifle in use in global militaries today), and France and the Commonwealth began similar projects. Additionally, a steady flow of mostly Japanese and Russian built weapons flowed into restive regions of northern India; after a second Sepoy revolt white troops withdrew to south of the Indus, and largely Canadian pressure within the alliance convinced the central government to begin the process of withdrawing from the mainland subcontinent, although the process lasted until the sixties.
The United States was eager for importation from Japanese colonies into Seattle, but unwilling to commit to a cold war with the Commonwealth. President Long spent most of his fifth term assuring the Canadian ambassador that his ties to Japan were strictly commercial, and the primary threat to Canada was from Russian-controlled Alaska. Nevertheless, relations remained tense, and large portions of both armies were stationed on the border. Canadian war planning in the event of a second great war- expected to be waged against an alliance of Japan, Russia, and the USA- rendered the Canadian population the most heavily armed and militarized on earth, with infantry training a core subject for boys in the Canadian school system starting in Kindergarten, and state-supported but technically private militias present in even the smallest towns to serve as partisans during an invasion. Despite how badly president Long's 7 terms in office would trash the US economy over the long haul, America maintains a powerful navy, albeit with similar industrial rot issues to in our timeline(granted, here caused mostly by populist economic insanity), and the Commonwealth continues to classify it as a potent military threat despite other powers seeing it as a half-power with too many economic issues to do more than complicate.
The first Japanese attempt at breaking power projection out of the Pacific was obtaining a naval base in the Indian subcontinent; Australian troops quickly deposed the rajah who considered this a good idea. The second was in the Nicaragua crisis, where Japan and the United States attempted to build a canal through central America, to enable cheaper trade with the Atlantic- but more than capable of allowing Japanese capital ships through. Texas, whose rail links from the west coast to Corpus Christi fed the economy, turned the resulting instability in Nicaragua into a proxy war which escalated to Texan and Dutch troops directly backing the rebel entrance into the capital and then fighting a counterinsurgency against a variety of former-regime aligned groups along with Commonwealth soldiers, a conflict which led to military occupation of the Yucatan and Costa Rica.
The third attempt, however, went much better. Japan obtained Argentine vassalage and backed the Argentine invasion of the Falkland islands and south Georgia island, home of the British naval installations bottling up Japan from rounding cape horn at will, and immediately dispatched its two newest aircraft carriers, Misaka and Akagi, to guard its ally's sovereign territory. The Commonwealth fleet, led by the HMS Invincible, was simply outmatched- Japanese carriers were almost twice the size of their opponent's, and carried 2.5x as many planes- all of them newer than the British's, and the conflict would also proof-of-concept the use of missile cruisers as capital ships alongside aircraft carriers. The Ocean class supercarriers which were supposed to be an answer to the newest Japanese ships were still in West Australian shipyards, and no Commonwealth hull could launch then-new fourth generation fighters. The peace settlement acknowledged Argentine control of the Falklands, but although the Commonwealth had all but lost the cold war, it was able to keep its head high, and a naval rearmament program continued successfully. Most historians consider the Commonwealth loss of global preeminence inevitable at this point but assign the actual date of Japanese victory in the cold war to the Greek realignment with Japan, and the subsequent opening of the Suez canal to Japanese military traffic. Today the leader of the Commonwealth is actually Australia, not Britain, and the soft alliance with the capitalist pro-white colonialist league between Texas, the Netherlands, and South Africa is largely broken- although poor Japanese relations with the other four great powers prevent it from being clearly preeminent.
In the works in this series- a post on overviews of the great powers+middle ones and a post on continental Europe plus South Africa.
No_one
4mo ago
I'm once again recommending Walter Blaire, a very unknown, self-published writer who is, nevertheless, fairly skilled. It's ostensibly military SF, and there's fair amount of action and some SF but is really more about societies, organisational and individual psychology in the context of a somewhat believable and internally consistent setting of eternal war. Unlike in 40k, in this case the 'eternal war' is strictly local and something that needs be preserved at all costs. The saving grace is that the ..people who fight it are enjoying it greatly, having the time of their rather short lives and really don't mind dying, having been engineered and then evolved to fight. The people directing it and keeping it going, not so much, but their suffering is usually related to bureaucratic snafus, old age, observing their country going to the shitter, summary executions for incompetence or deaths in duels.
Here's my review of 'the Eternal Front'
And here I'm going to offer a short review of 'What the Thunder Said', a shorter book he published after 'The Eternal Front'. It's a short SF novel, with military themes and sort of coming of age/romance framing, I guess. Unlike the Front, which has .. at least four viewpoint characters and several story strands, this one is centered on a single person, and is a sort of a coming-of-age. No worries- it's not smut - it never gets further than violations of prescribed distance and some unresolved interspecies* sexual tension. I say 'interspecies' because technically and practically, while the Tachba military servitors Haphans are stuck with look human, albeit extremely chad-ly[1], they're psychologically quite different and definitely not interfertile. And, like the Adeptus Astartes whom they somewhat resemble, very much not horny either. I said 'slightly resemble' but if you go by it line by line, it does seem they're supposed to be a realistic take on supersoldiers. Not some archetypal, mythical badasses but what would be practical, possible and physiologically feasible. It's not long for a novel and very readable.
Anyway I'm shilling it because as I was reading through the slush pile of Kindle store, I was struck by the writing quality and feel the author deserves more exposure.
[1]: honestly I feel like asking the writer if he had Gigachad in mind while writing it. quoting:
In all, he was unkempt, patchy, and dirty—though not outright filthy. It was more of an “end of a hard day in the field” level of dirtiness. Still, she felt a touch of disappointment, almost concern, that the empire was being represented like this to the enemy. When she couldn’t put it off any longer, she raised her eyes to his face. Jephia had tried to explain it to her once. The presence they could have. It couldn’t be adequately conveyed in second- and third-hand accounts. To truly separate the historical and clinical facts from the people themselves, Jephia told her, one had to personally meet the Polluted. The man’s eyes were slate gray, crinkled at the edges, and they returned her gaze unflinchingly. His eyes bored into hers. Somehow, Caulie didn’t find it rude—he was simply intensely interested, as if he’d never seen another human and never would again. She had the impression that he looked at everything this way—and that, despite their rocky first exchange, he was intelligent or at least perceptive. Little would escape those eyes. As for the rest of him . . . well. It was unfair. She was finally across from someone who was categorically her social inferior. The very fabric of civilization and empire gave her every advantage over him, and he still made her nervous and shy. Although Caulie was tall for a Haphan woman, he towered over her. At least six-foot-five, and that was while slouching. His general wear and wrinkles put him in his thirties, but these Tachba aged differently and he could have been younger. Really, thirty would be an anomaly, and not just because of the Tachba’s shorter lifespans—active soldiers of any race rarely reached that age on the eternal front. Old or not, his hair was an unkempt, glossy black where it escaped his forager cap, and he had several days of scruffy growth on his cheeks. In addition to the slab-like Tachba jaw, he had the broad forehead of an easterner from the Ed-homse mountains. The books described it as “frontal cranial bossing,” and it did look like some of the skulls in her lab, but there was nothing bulging about it in real life. His features were regular and attractive. Caulie never thought of her samples in terms of attraction, yet the word floated into her thoughts. It was the combination of his size, his lean body, and the angular features of his face. And those eyes. That was it. He didn’t look Polluted. He wasn’t moon-faced, soft-faced, or soft anything. He wasn’t blank, and nothing about his demeanor seemed to be waiting for her to ascribe features and traits to him. He wasn’t anything like the template she’d expected, and nothing like the blundering, wayward misfits from popular entertainment. She hadn’t even known she’d had any expectations until they weren’t met. Maybe that was why his simple, direct gaze was so disorienting.
PyotrVerkhovensky
4mo ago
I wrote last week on Revenge of the Sith, and how it benefited from the ambiguity between the "good" side and the bad. As Padme said, "[what if] the Republic has become the very evil we have been fighting to destroy?" @SubstantialFrivolity responded that, despite its flaws, Revenge of the Sith was the best of the Star Wars movies due to this complexity, and mildly criticized the original Star Wars for being a derivative "hero's journey".
Since I first watched Star Wars at age 7 (just before the abominable Special Editions came out, in its unadulterated form) it has been my favorite movie.
It is not a derivative "hero's journey". It is a distilled "hero's journey". A restless youth is trapped in a backwater. One day he seizes the opportunity to do something greater, and is suddenly thrust into confrontations of galactic import. He rescues a literal princess, with the help of a ragtag band of comrades. And while he doesn't "get the girl", that is not actually a critical component of a hero's story: rather what distinguishes the Journey is the acceptance and subsequential overcoming of an offered challenge.
A key part of a hero's journey is that the morality of the conquest is never in doubt. In Star Wars, evil is evil and good is good. From the first moment of the movie, where a gigantic, sharp, wedge shaped ship fires on a smaller, fleeing vessel; to the black, masked villain stepping into the pristine white interior; to the almost flippant destruction of an entire planet, the Evil Empire is clearly evil. The princess is being held captive, and it is a moral imperative to rescue her. The Death Star is threatening to kill all the characters we have met throughout the movie, and it is obviously a moral good to destroy it.
It is a common modern trope for a Hero to self-doubt and self-incriminate following the successful completion of the quest. (We see this writ large in our society's embarrassment over "colonialization"; which, at the time, was a manifestation of an "ascendent" society). Yet Star Wars had such clear Heroes and Villains that it carried through three sequels unexamined. It wasn't until the second movie of the sequel Trilogy that this narrative began to be subverted (and explains the audience backlash against The Last Jedi).
In short, Star Wars is pure. It is purified in its distillation of the Hero's Journey. It is pure in its depiction of Good and Evil. It is pure in its innocence. From the humble beginnings on a desert planet to the triumphant return of the motif in the Throne Room, Star Wars perfectly embodies something elemental and essential, untainted by cynicism or doubt.
The technological answer seems obvious - being underdeveloped, technology was advancing more rapidly, leading to more cool new shit that feels fresh and exciting.
their gameplay does not seem to be that big of an improvement over things I have seen before.
Genuine question - how do you tangibly improve on the Doom gameplay formula? Looting levels and shooting shit seems like a fairly complete feature on its own, the only improvements are building some sort of scaffolding on top of that in search of synergy - RPGesque systems, color differentiation of pants 873 gazillion guns of looter shooters, top-down Crimsonland slaughterfests, roguelikes, realistic sims, battle royale, etc. etc. The core conceit remains unchanged. Maybe nu-Doom and other ADHD shooting games like Ultrakill do represent a core improvement but I'll be honest it's not an improvement I want to see everywhere, my geriatric reflexes aren't up to the task.
As for why games aren't as good as in the olden days, the answer is probably that games grew into a proper art form and achieved mass appeal. Before mass appeal, something that was famous worldwide (e.g Doom, Half-Life, XCOM, etc.) was expected to be, and frequently was, famous on its own strength since the scene is mostly populated by fellow enthusiasts who enjoy this niche as you do and have tastes and standards broadly aimilar to yours.
With mass appeal comes an influx of normies, which by themselves aren't actually a problem, their distaste for difficulty is spiritually the same type of complaint that I make above wrt my geriatric reflexes. They aren't gud enough for trve hardcore gaming, and want different things from their games. I do it myself, I'm terrible at shooting games and dislike PVP in general so I don't play e.g Tarkov with the gang. This is okay.
What is not okay is the swarms of Gervais-sociopaths that invariably follow the herds of normies; as we know, real hard-R gamers are infamously culturally sensitive and averse to bullshit, while normies have no such complications and can be duped with impunity. SplitFiction is actually a perfect example of this trend, as discussed downthread; a malevolent will behind the scenes has explicitly designed the game to deceive normies' sensibilities, with full knowledge that co-op can salvage any garbage, Redditors heckin love novel schticks and metanarratives, and a few cleverly-placed identity markers will defang most of the intuitive criticism (I'm not even talking about the quirky not-lesbian female characters fighting an evil white nerd; rather that the fact of the two being literal writers is specifically made to disarm the exact complaint @Fruck makes here, cf. exhibit A - let's see you write better, fucking chud!). This is a perfect metaphor for gaming as a whole. We truly do live in a society.
Still, I disagree that gaming is dying; AAA gaming is, sure, but that's arguably a good thing, and the indie scene is still strong as ever. My consumption of vidya remains as high as ever, maybe except that I too notice I don't have the stomach to get into 100+ hour games anymore, I really want to play BG3 and Metaphor but the time requirement is legitimately daunting. Great games still exist, but the fame of something is no longer an indicator of its quality (arguably it's becoming a point against), and you have to shovel through piles of shit to find diamonds, or even just some decent ore. Y'know, like with any other popular medium nowadays.
gakles
4mo ago
I need help deciding on some medium term (1-3 month) life goals. I'm a college freshman at (small American liberal arts college) and feel pretty listless right now. I grew up in a pretty rural environment and got in on the condition I spent the first semester studying abroad. I spent said semester in London, attending a joke college and having lots of type 1 fun. I met some great people, hostel-travelled through the Baltics, and lived it up in the city (read: tons of alcohol). While that semester didn't add intellectual development or employability, I do think I grew as a person let off some adolescent male steam.
This semester, the pendulum swung back the other direction and I find myself once again immersed in rural nothingness. The college "town" is so small it's classified as a hamlet. I don't really miss the high life that much and recognise that I'll be able to travel during the summers and once I graduate (and hopefully attend grad school abroad). There is now a sort of void in my life that living in the city filled. While I can still go "out" on Fridays to parties, it just doesn't feel the same, and the reality is I'm not built for the frat life. So I've found myself with a lot of time on my hands and not much to do with it. For the first half of the semester I've been playing video games in my free time but they suck up too much time and attention that I should be using to be productive.
Ideally, whatever goal(s) I set should be achievable in the next 1-3 months, approximately the end of the semester. This is to keep them self-contained, as I plan to spend summer grinding my ass off taking community college courses at home.
Here's a few goals I'm considering, roughly categorized:
Health-I'm 5'10" 150lbs and pretty lean enough that I have abs for the first time in my life. While this is nice, I don't really have much muscle mass or real strength (November-January were a brutal cut). Anything health related has a triple benefit in that it makes me healthier, helps me pull baddies, and makes me feel good.
- Do a muscle up. I've been doing pull-ups regularly since the start of the pandemic and right now my max is about 15. I've never been able to achieve a muscle up and it would be cool to do so. Spending time grinding calisthenics would help me focus and build a my daily routine.
- Really commit to going to the gym 6 days a week. Me and one other scrawny freshman have been going to the gym fairly regularly but I find myself cancelling frequently for various laziness-adjacent reasons. I probably average 3.5x a week right now while he's going 5x. This would again build my daily routine and I would probably also gain muscle.
- Start running again. While most of my life in London was total degeneracy, I consistently ran around 5k 3x a week. My cardio definitely improved and running makes me feel like a better person. Taking this up again would have tangible health benefits and would make my dad proud (He's a big marathon guy).
Career-This is unfortunately a segment of life I'm really lacking in. Right now, I want to be a research biologist, although this might change. My last real work experience was at a frozen yogurt shop in junior year of high school. The only relevant work I've done is a pretty cool biotech class senior year where I learned some simple lab techniques (PCR, SDS-PAGE, cell culture) and the second semester was a small research project (Does Fe16 and ampicillin work synergistically against E. coli? We still don't know!). What I could do in the next three months is kinda ephemeral but could have some solid rewards. It's important to note that I'm at a small liberal arts college so the professors generally do support interested students. Crap I will do but have not done is update my LinkedIn and write a proper resume.
- Local volunteering. Helping kids with STEM stuff at a local middle school would at least put hours and give me something to put on my resume. I like working with kids so this could be fun.
- Network like crazy. I have some relations to people in biotech and it would theoretically be possible to network my way into a summer internship but this seems really unlikely because the internship season is over and I don't have the great charisma this would require.
- There are a few clubs on campus that could be relevant on a resume or that would just benefit me as a worker, things like the public speaking club and the various newspapers. I have also heard that they have a low bar to entry.
- Make the Dean's List. This requires a 3.5 gpa which shouldn't be a huge struggle for me but will require concerted effort and some sacrifice in my quality of life (2am studying).
- I can't actually think of anything else in the short term. My school does do summer research programs and I submitted a form (and talked to the relevant profs) but as a freshman everyone has priority over me. I don't think I'm a horrible candidate compared to other freshman because of the biotech class but I can't compete with people who've taken 300 level classes.
Social-My dad is borderline autistic and I'm an only child, it's only natural that my social skills are stunted. While I can be socially active when around people I know and like, in unfamiliar group settings I can really quickly shut down. Right now, approaching a group of people I don't know unless I'm borderline blackout drunk is damn near impossible for me. Maybe I'm coping but I'm not actually super upset at the status quo because I do have friends and I enjoy their company and don't feel like I need other people. At the same time, starting a semester behind is a bit isolating and it would be nice to get to know the rest of the school.
- Make more guy friends. It's nice to have more dude-bro head nod/dap-up friendships and reaching out to people who aren't part of my in-group (late admit) would be outside my comfort zone. The best way to do this would be to join one of the amateur sports clubs, which also double as party-throwing mechanisms. Right now rugby looks cool to me.
- Make more girl friends. I'm from California and have grown up around enough gay people that I can flip a switch and be good friends with them. I'm also a strong believer in separating horniness from friendship so I wouldn't be plagued by the gay-best-friend struggle of being attracted to my friends. The issue with this is that I don't really do stuff that puts me in contact with girls right now, and I'm not particularly inclined to go to book club or anything.
- More serious relationship. In London I got romantically entangled with a girl. It's been really on/off and the general situation around "us" is awful: her friends hate me, my friends hate her friends, two guys I know like her, I don't like her as a person. She wants to start actually dating now that we're on campus and I just want her body. Overall indulging in her (responding to texts etc.) would be pretty easy but if anybody found out there would be blowback from all the aforementioned issues. I'm pretty sure after spring break I'm going to engage with her more, but be clear to set boundaries. To those who say: "Just get with another girl" she's got some sort of mind control over me, and I hate and am bad at dating and rizz.
I'd really appreciate feedback on these goals, is there anything I should add/change/remove? I can't do all of these, what would you guys recommend prioritising? Do you have any alternate suggestions or questions? Right now, I think I'm going for Dean's List and running, and will probably cave to the girl. Joining a club sport would be a great add-on but I don't know if it's doable time wise. Just writing this has been great for mentally mapping out my priorities.
nomagicpill
4mo ago
I intentionally omitted any link and references to it because a) I didn't want to come across as shilling it, and b) I too (strongly) prefer some amount of engagement besides just "hey read my post okay bye"; i's annoying and spammy when people link their blog and don't engage. I figured people would find this idea at least slightly interesting, regardless of where else it was posted, and I would be happy to interact if someone were to respond (see this very reply!).
The "extremely wide audience" part I disagree with. I think this is probably more closely related to SSC-esque people than others (hence the posting here) because of the analytical approach I suggest instead of just shotgunning any and all potential improvements. Decisions (in regards to the essay) can have major opportunity costs if they're pursued too hastily without proper checking. I'd say few people consider said opportunity costs unless the costs are very high.
Regarding the Uganda post on the last Friday Fun thread, I just didn't have anything to say back to the two people who responded directly to me.
It's me again the guy who posted here three weeks ago about investing his small and modest trust fund into the stock market. Yup.
https://www.themotte.org/post/1695/friday-fun-thread-for-february-21/300977?context=8#context
I bought at the literal peak and feel like shit.
I'm angry at Donald Trump, myself, but most of all at the market for not pricing in Trump's clearly telegraphed idiotic decisions.
I picked the absolute worst date to start investing in the last three years and am experiencing no small amount of self-pity. Others at least get to have a few months of being in the green. I had one fucking day.
I put 16,000€ into the S&P 500, 500€ into Nvidia, 1,500€ into tech ETFs, and 500€—I shit you not—into an S&P 500 10x leveraged option trade I did for entertainment. Lost it all, of course.
Overall, I'm down 2000€ (~15%) right now.
I have no income stream to buy the dip with, as I'm still a student. I never had more than 2000€ in my bank account before this. I wanted to be really dilligent about not spending this money.
Woe is me. I know the market will recover, this is just a blip on my journey, all that bullshit. Still, it feels awful knowing I could have just waited one week. All that time researching Bogleheads stuff, and now I'm left wondering if I got in right at the end of the gravy train.
I still believe in my reasons for investing (I'm convinced AI will lead to an extra 1 percentage point of growth year over year).
But goddamn. My whole family was against me doing this (the money was in gold before), and ah man, it's all so fucking unfair.
(Yes, I'm a whiny upper-middle-class student who doesn't have a job, but hey, hedonic adaptation and all that. My problems are just as real as those of you who are less tall and handsome.)
ulyssessword
5mo ago
While we're complaining about software, Mozilla made the most absurdly bad change to Firefox's UI a week or so ago.
They started hiding the https:// in the address bar until you click on it...then everything jumps half an inch to the right so the part of the URL you selected isn't under your mouse anymore. I have a recommendation for those designers.
cjet79
5mo ago
Third kid arrived on Friday, little baby goblin. Slowly starting to look more like a baby girl instead. Still cute and makes my heart flutter holding her.
Just came home from the hospital. Babys two older sisters love and adore her already.
I'm doing my part to be above replacement rate for population growth.
hydroacetylene
5mo ago
https://www.themotte.org/post/1695/friday-fun-thread-for-february-21/301179?context=8#context
I'm following up on my alternate history scenario from a few weeks ago.
In this timeline some damn fool thing in the balkans causes the great war, just like in our world. But the US is distracted with the still-ongoing Indian wars. The sinking of the Lusitania is a footnote in history books and the Zimmerman telegram was an offer of perpetual alliance to the US, and military advisors and technical assistance, if America would invade Canada. This offer was politely declined, and the great war ended with state failure in Austria, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire simultaneously. Emperor Karl got German intervention- at unknown cost. The Ottoman empire underwent a popular revolt and would be forced out of the war with major territorial concessions. In Russia, Tsar Nicholas II abdicated in favor of his brother Michael, who calmed the mutiny in the army by promising peace. Brest-Litovsk in this world made large territorial concessions and promised food exports sufficient to keep Germany and Austria in the fight for another year. Operation Michael did not succeed, but brought General Hindenburg and the French and British to the same page- a white peace was needed. Germany, Britain, and France, as the remaining great powers, agreed to status quo ante in the west, each agreed to guarantee Belgian neutrality and agreed that the three would have the right to gain new colonies. A French-British-German commission would oversee the Ottoman empire, currently embroiled in a civil war, but Russia would be left to sort out its own problems. Aggressive war on (the western portion of)the continent would be outlawed. Italy and Belgium, having little choice, agreed.
As it became clear that communists would gain the upper hand in the Ottoman civil war, the commission granted Greece permission to invade and occupy the Greek-majority portions of Anatolia, and Greece received substantial assistance from all three. The southern Levant would be a French mandate, supplying arms to Assyrian rebels in northern Iraq/Western Syria, and to a lesser extent Armenians. The end result- an Assyrian state cutting off newly communist Turkey from access to much of Mesopotamia, French plans for a Maronite state to supplement it... eventually. In Europe, Austria would remain under German occupation, their militaries would remain under joint command and while Austria would maintain separate embassies for quite some time, it de fact retained no independent foreign policy. Karl I managed to retain domestic independence, despite some border revisions, and his concessions to the Croatians and Czechs brought some German disapproval but both Karl and his successor Otto were insistent on domestic independence. Today the Austrian empire is a developed country divided into domestic administration on language grounds, but no longer has an independent foreign policy or military and remains poorer than Germany. The monarchies sit at equal level, but the joint parliament underweights non-German Austrian votes, and non-German Austrians are discriminated against in the military- probably the single most influential institution in the de facto joint government. Austrian regions are essentially SARs in the German empire who share a separate monarchy.
Russia spent the twenties and early thirties defeating nationalist revolts. Tsar Michael proved a more capable ruler than Nicholas, and reformed the army while making enough concessions to forestall further instability. The first foreign war was conquering Turkish controlled territory under the guise of protecting the region's Armenian majority; this was allowed to happen as a check on communism. Border revisions with Germany proved less successful, but outside of Eastern Europe the Russian Empire reached its old borders, and clashes in Ukraine and the Baltics never turned into a major war.
The real equivalent of WWII is termed, in English, the Pacific war, a clash between (originally)Britain and the Netherlands on one side and Japan on the other. After a surprise attack on the British naval base in San Francisco- with substantial collateral damage- the Republic of Texas declared war, and due to threats to their concessions in China Germany entered. The war had a few major effects, chiefly the revision of naval warfare towards a carrier dominated model, and was forced to an end when a German army, shipped to India and marched overland by British logistics, threatened the Japanese concessions in China while the attack on Hawaii- headquarters of the IJN eastern fleet- became too entrenched to be easily pushed out. Japan was forced to return territories taken from Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, and France, but allowed to keep territories captured from other minor powers. The other main effect of the war was integration of white commonwealth countries into the UK more intensively, with South African refusal being a minor crisis. The Indonesian war of independence was here a failure; the Dutch army was considerably stronger without the occupation of its homeland, and the formation of a pro-colonial alliance with South Africa and the Republic of Texas bolstered the colonial administration further. That assistance was paid back in the Nicaragua crisis, where Dutch troops assisted the Republic of Texas in preventing the Nicaraguan government from allowing a Japanese and US backed canal project which would shorten maritime trade routes from the Pacific to the Atlantic, and in South Africa resisting German colonial expansionism.
Today, Japan is the master of the Pacific, with seventeen carriers and 25 cruisers, Korea, Taiwan, Manchuria, and most of coastal northern China are well-integrated into the empire. The commonwealth, with fifteen carriers and fifteen cruisers, relies on allies to match Japan in the Pacific, but is generally on even terms elsewhere- except for the north Atlantic, where it's the dominant power. France and the United States have much smaller navies and would rely on allies to fight either of the giants anywhere in the world, while Germany and Russia are land powers. There are a bevy of middle powers- the Netherlands, Texas, Brazil, etc- which would need their allies to defend themselves against any of the four sea powers. Turkish, Serbian, and interior Chinese experiments with communism are failures with bodycounts, but this is a world with more oppressive governments and frequent warfare than in ours; communism doesn't stand out in quite the same way. The European powers have retrenched from most of Africa- France maintains control of Morocco and the Commonwealth still rules Egypt and Kenya- but with much heavier internal interference than in our world. India is independent, and is a civil war ridden wreck under perpetual Russian threat, but Sri Lanka remains a colony, as do Indonesia and Indochina. Brazil is a middle power, but other parts of Latin America are not so lucky- Peru and Argentina(although wealthy in this timeline) are Japanese protectorates, Texas and the USA maintain colonial rule in large swaths of the Caribbean and central America, Mexico is a poor flyover country frequently bullied by more powerful countries, with its wealthiest regions from our world part of Texas. Venezuela is German controlled, still, after the pre-great war Monroe doctrine proved toothless.
Compare Far Cry 5 (that understood how to do a conservative-coded villain group correctly).
I have been meaning to make a post about this on the Friday Fun Thread for a while, but I will just make it here. I don’t think Far Cry 5 meant to make a commentary about America or American politics, I think that was something it accidentally stumbled into by virtue of releasing around the time Trump started to become a controversial figure. Video games have long development cycles of around three to five years.
I think Far Cry 5 was about Syria and ISIS, and attempting to put the conflict in terms and visuals Americans can understand. It’s about a radical group with a bespoke, radical eschatological interpretation of an already existing religion that seizes an area by force and tries to impose that vision.
There are a lot of parallels between Eden’s Gate and the events of Far Cry 5 that parallel ISIS and Syria. Notice:
-Eden’s Gate’s black flag with white lettering, like the ISIS battle flag
-The white Toyota technicals they both use as their primary combat vehicle
-The bizarre inhuman torture and execution methods that seem weirdly sadistic and lurid for a group claiming to be faith based
-The mandatory politically correct disclaimer by the developers that this group does not represent the religion as a whole: the multiple scenes where the Catholic priest is obviously disgusted by Eden’s Gate, and the scene where the cult members literally knock a Bible out of his hands and force him to hold the cult leader’s manifesto instead. Odd for a game made by liberals that is supposed to be dunking on conservative Christians but perfect sense for a game that is supposed to an allegory for ISIS and it’s questionable relation with mainline Islam.
-The government’s complete lack of interest in dealing with the cult despite its violent insurgent behavior, with government intervention limited to a few special forces troops dropped in by helicopter and one CIA agent to assist. The lack of ATF involvement or the national guard showing up in force makes no sense for a game that’s supposed to be set in America but it makes perfect sense as a commentary about Western governments initially giving very little help in fighting ISIS. The CIA officer even specifically says the American government isn’t interested in helping much because it’s too busy with domestic political squabbles like verifying the authenticity of Trump’s alleged pee tape.
-The uniforms and Soviet era weaponry of the friendly militia that helps you fight the cult look strikingly like the Kurdish paramilitary units that were holding back ISIS in Northern Syria. The fact that there even is a “friendly paramilitary militia” that’s unambiguously played as good guys would seem extremely odd for a liberal critique of rural America.
-SPOILERS: The fact that this cult in the middle of some Montana county is somehow (at least metaphorically) destabilizing world geopolitics to the point of a potential world ending nuclear war.
You’re right though, Far Cry 6 is just politically and narrative schizophrenic garbage.
ThisIsSin
Liberty has an anti-privilege bias
5mo ago
It is understandably shocking to sexists and racists that one cannot, in fact, make successful media based solely on those hatreds.
Most sexists/racists have seen [classical] liberal media built on spewing hate at them and be overwhelmingly popular, and they think they can do the same thing by spewing hate back at the liberals. (Progressives have a larger blind spot here because some of them think they really are liberals- they're not, they just borrow the name.)
The problem is that the reason liberal media works and progressive media doesn't is that the hatred isn't made core to the experience. Contrast Alien (or to a point, Terminator), where it isn't played or intended as subversive to have a woman in those roles, to Ghostbusters 3 or Star Wars 7-9, where it is.
It would be just as unsatisfying if it were a man in those roles- so the only reason to cast a woman in those roles, and people watching pick this up pretty quickly- is to rely on the hatred (a subset of subversiveness) to carry it.
I've made this point before for "child vs. adult media", but most of the same points apply. If you have a strong skeleton with your views painted onto it- and liberal views have an advantage because having liberal views tends to make it easier to build a strong skeleton- you'll succeed; but if you start with the views you'll generally fail unless your views are actually correct. And in the progressive case, they're not.
Compare Far Cry 5 (that understood how to do a conservative-coded villain group correctly) with Far Cry 6 (that took "conservative coded = bad" for granted)- in both cases, you're attacking a conservative-coded group, but 5 is "defend the innocents directly from insanity" where 6 is "abstract Cuba revolution cosplay, also wheelchair dog, the meme ending is the most engaging way to play the game (rather than in 4 and 5 where it's merely the most realistic option)".
throwaway20230125
5mo ago
Tuesday's Supreme Court opinion bears a surprising resemblance to the environmental rigmarole that I described in my previous posts (1 2 3).
-
Scenario 1: The state DEP (Department of Environmental Protection) gives to the state DOT (Department of Transportation) a permit saying that DOT can't pave near floodways, because that might cause flooding. DOT obeys the paving restriction. Even if flooding occurs later on (due to the actions of some entity other than DOT, or due to changes in precipitation patterns), DOT cannot be punished by DEP for that flooding, because it obeyed the restrictions of the permit. (I'm not quite sure what form such punishment would actually take. Are different arms of the same government allowed to impose fines on each other?)
-
Scenario 2: DEP gives to DOT a permit saying that (1) DOT can't pave near floodways, because that might cause flooding, and (2), if flooding occurs, DOT will be punished. DOT obeys the paving restriction. If flooding occurs later on (due to the actions of some entity other than DOT, or due to changes in precipitation patterns), DOT can be punished by DEP for that flooding, even though it did nothing wrong.
Scenario 2 sounds ridiculous, right? Well, keep reading.
-
Scenario 3: The federal EPA (Environmental Protection Administration) gives to San Francisco a permit saying that SF can't discharge untreated sewage into the ocean, because that might cause the ocean to become polluted. SF obeys the discharge restriction. Even if the ocean becomes polluted later on (due to the actions of some entity other than SF, or due to changes in ocean currents), SF cannot be punished by EPA for that pollution, because it obeyed the restrictions of the permit.
-
Scenario 4: EPA gives to San Francisco a permit saying that (1) SF can't discharge untreated sewage into the ocean, because that might cause the ocean to become polluted, and (2), if the ocean becomes polluted, SF will be punished. SF obeys the discharge restriction. If the ocean becomes polluted later on (due to the actions of some entity other than SF, or due to changes in ocean currents), SF can be punished by EPA for that pollution, in the amount of multiple billions of dollars, even though it did nothing wrong.
The Supreme Court now has ruled, by a bare majority of five to four, that the Clean Water Act does not authorize the EPA to issue the permit that is described in scenario 4. More specifically:
-
The text of the Clean Water Act passed by Congress says that a permit can contain, not just "effluent limitations", but also "any more stringent limitation that is necessary to meet the water-quality standards". "Effluent limitations" obviously permits scenario 3. The question before the Supreme Court is whether "any more stringent limitation" permits scenario 4.
-
The five-justice majority decided that, in this context, when Congress wrote "limitation" into the Clean Water Act, it meant that the EPA needed to tell San Francisco specifically what to do in order to avoid penalties (e. g., "your discharge into the ocean must not be polluting"), rather than just vaguely gesturing (e. g., "the ocean must not become polluted while you are discharging into it").
-
The four-justice minority disagrees with this assessment, and thinks that the word "limitation", regardless of context, can permit the EPA to make San Francisco responsible for the water quality of the ocean, rather than just for the water quality of what it discharges into the ocean. Direct quote: "A doctor could impose a 'limitation' on a patient's diet by telling the patient that she must lose 20 pounds over the next six months, even if the doctor does not prescribe a specific diet and exercise regimen. 'Limitations' can be general as well as specific, and general limitations can call for more specific ones."
IMO, legally the argument could go either way, but practically scenario 4 obviously is unfair and the majority's decision makes a heck of a lot more sense.
(I have put this comment in the culture-war thread because of articles like this one: "Supreme Court Rules the Clean Water Act Doesn't Actually Require That Water Be Clean")
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5mo ago
Three months ago I posted that I signed up for a local BJJ gym. The place opened up down the street, and I thought it would be a fun changeup to my routine of lifting, climbing, kettlebells, etc. I’d always vaguely thought it would be fun and valuable to learn a little BJJ, something I always intended to do in the same way that one day I think I might hike the Appalachian Trail or read Proust. Just one of those things that a well-rounded man ought to do. My best friend wanted to sign up at the same time, so I figured that would give me one friend in the gym. I’ve attended, with a gap of a few weeks for in-law obligations followed by the in-laws giving me COVID, an average of 3-4 times a week since the first week of December. Some overly verbose thoughts I’ve been holding in to avoid embarrassing myself in front of and/or boring the piss out of people in my real life with my infinite thoughts about my hobby I’m shitty at:
— This is the best thing I’ve done for my cardio since I was on the rowing team in undergrad. I feel like if I spent a month jogging I might have to change my name to FourAndAHalfHourMarathon. I feel better on the rowing machine, doing long kettlebell sets, and on the mat it is no question. The first month, one round in going hard I was exhausted. After gutting out one and a half more round, I would go home and be in shell shock. Now I can roll three or four decent rounds, walk off the mat, and go home like nothing really happened. Part of that is more efficient technique and calming down, but a lot of it is pure cardio. I’ve always been bad at forcing myself to do cardio, I have a tendency to go for a two mile run and give up after a mile and a half, or to set a goal or getting on the rower four times a week and half ass it for a while before I stop doing it altogether. BJJ forces me to do ten to twenty minutes of hard cardio at the end of every class, because the other guy is on top of me and there’s nothing I can do about it, I’m not forced to set my own pace because my opponent is setting it for me. My wife has commented that I’m getting a lot leaner, though I’m only down about two pounds my abs are noticeably more visible, and I know it’s happening because my wife didn’t just say I’m looking good, she’s getting self-conscious about the possibility I’m looking better than her. I suspect, looking around the gym, that this is noob gains from trying a completely different format of exercise and that they’ll probably max out by June, but there is a ton of value in changing things up entirely, and rolling BJJ is probably about as far from weightlifting as I can get in formatting.
— While I’m a lifting/climbing/fitness enthusiast always working on some goal or other, it’s amazing how going to BJJ has refocused the rest of my fitness routine. "Fight club gets to be your reason for going to the gym and keeping your hair cut short and cutting your nails.” I’m getting on the rower more, I’m stretching and doing yoga, I’m theragun-ing myself regularly, to make sure I’m in peak condition on the mat. And while climbing and lifting have taken a back seat, I’m trying to sneak them in between, because I can feel how the strength I built over ten years gives me an advantage rolling, and I don’t want to lose the few advantages I have. There’s something so satisfying about feeling the results of the numbers I hit in the weight dungeon out on the mat. This is motivating and centering for me in a way other things haven’t been.
— I finally signed up in large part because my childhood best friend, B, signed up too. We figured we would pretty much go together every time. B did martial arts from like ten years old to twenty one, a mixed-up karate studio from what I recall, and had some grappling experience from that. Beyond that, he’s in great shape, runs around ten or fifteen Spartan races every year, typically hitting the podium for three or four Supers (15+ miles) every year. At our first few classes, he was much better than me, simply knowing more and feeling more comfortable on the ground, and also having much better cardio. I’ve actually only made it to about five classes with him in the past three months. We both have responsible adult jobs, and the ability to make it to an evening class just depends how the day is going, so some of that is just B might make it Monday Thursday and Saturday while I make it Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. But a lot of it is that he keeps getting hurt. Way too often. B seems to pick up a knock every third or fourth class and then miss four or five days healing up. B seems to be really held back by injuries, most recently his back is so bad that he’s in “I have to really think about tying my shoes” mode. The first few times we rolled when we started he dominated me, the last time we rolled together last week we were close to even but I was consistently taking the offensive on position. In a lot of ways, I think his mixed grappling experience coming in hurt him, because he was able to attempt things that his body wasn’t ready to do yet, and unwilling to get beat even though he was going to get beat eventually. Ego is the cause of most injuries, a good half sports injury stories starts with “I knew I shouldn’t have done that but…” This has me thinking about injuries in two ways. First of all like when signing an NBA star, the most important skill is availability, if you’re injured you’re not training and getting better. We’ve both been signed up for three months, I’ve attended twice as many classes and rolled three times as much, so at this point I’m getting better; an illustration of how injury avoidance is your most important task in any workout. Second, sustainability of BJJ as a hobby is a tough one. Virtually all the regulars who have been there for a while have suffered injuries, many of them severe and semi-permanent. I’m questioning if this will end up being a lifelong hobby for me for that reason. I’ve had a couple of days where Big John caught me in a guillotine and I had a stiff neck afterward, but it only kept me out for a day or two until I healed up enough to roll again and just tell my partner that if he caught me in a choke put it on slow and I’ll tap early. But I’m trying extra hard right now to avoid injuries and just stay in the game.
— It’s tougher to measure progress in BJJ than other sports I’m used to. The gym I’m attending is small and casual and largely unstructured, there’s one “fundamentals” and one “advanced” class each week, but every other day is “all levels adult,” with adult running from local high school wrestling champs to fifty year old black belts who have been grappling for thirty years to thirty something moderately athletic guys like me. The black belts drop in on the fundamentals class and the advanced class is open to everyone, so even those don’t make much difference. There are probably forty or so total members, five to twenty in any given class any given night, and as near as I can tell I’m just about the last real new guy to sign up. So for me, there are a lot of nights I’m just getting beat on. Progress looks like losing slower, like getting caught in fools mate traps less often, like forcing my opponent to methodically take me down, break full guard, pass half guard, and then fight for a submission instead of just rolling over me. To a large extent setting goals has been thwarted by how variable any given night can feel. One practice I might roll with three guys who are just above my level, another I might roll with two black belts and a 260lb former state champ wrestler. Those two practices are so different that the goals I have for each can’t really be compared. The first three months my goals were things like: get one submission. Get a submission from guard. Get a submission from a dominant position. Hunting for those helped encourage me to avoid being totally passive when rolling, and being willing to accept getting subbed as long as my k/d wasn’t zero. Now I’m thinking more in terms of defense, from learning more about the fundamentals, and I want to focus on getting through twenty minutes on the mat, first without getting subbed, and then without losing guard completely. I don't know if these goals are actually achievable, as my opponents probably have been taking it easy on me and have vast reserves of physical and technical ability that they will unleash on me once I resist. But, hey, at least I'll be more fun for them to roll with.
— I didn’t realize people really did steroids. It’s weird realizing first of all that a decent number of guys are on some kind of dosing cycle or other, and second that a lot of them aren’t that strong. It’s really not the difference maker it is often made out to be. I have nothing against mild steroid use morally, it’s something I would consider in another ten years or so, but I’m just surprised to actually see it. It’s one of those things I’m always surprised when I run into people who actually do it, like hard drugs or leaving your wife for a younger woman. I understand that such things are normal, but I kind of assume they happen somewhere off camera statistically, not right in front of me.
-- I avoid rolling with the women in class like the plague. Because I truly have no idea what to do when I'm rolling with them. I don't want to just muscle them around, but I don't want to play pattycake, but I don't want to disrespect them, I don't know. There's just no winning that one.
— I’m dumping so many thoughts here because I’m embarrassed to talk about it too much to friends and family irl because, well, I suck. At what point is it even a remotely interesting hobby? When one enters a tournament? Wins one? After a year? Three? Ten? It just feels so odd to talk about a new hobby one sucks at as an adult.
-- I'm trying to resist the urge to get into BJJ culture. I don't want to read too much about BJJ, get into the debates I hear around the gym that I know are raging somewhere on the internet. I've always over-intellectualized things, this is an experiment for me in just doing the damn thing.
Primaprimaprima
...something all admit only "TRUMP", and the Trump Administration, can do.
5mo ago
· Edited 5mo ago
Signs point to Donald Trump soon invoking the Insurrection Act (paywalled, but you can get around it with Reader View):
The clock is ticking down on a crucial but little-noticed part of President Donald Trump’s first round of executive orders — the one tasking the secretaries of the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security to submit a joint report, within 90 days, recommending “whether to invoke the Insurrection Act.”
Many of us are now holding our collective breath, knowing that the report and what it contains could put us on the slippery slope toward unchecked presidential power under a man with an affinity for ironfisted dictators.
Adding to the suspense was the recent “Friday Night Massacre” at the Pentagon — the firing of the nation’s top uniformed officer and removing other perceived guardrails (i.e., the top uniformed lawyers at the Army, Navy and Air Force) standing between the president and his long-stated intention to declare martial law upon returning to power.
And here's the linked EO they're referencing:
(a) Within 30 days of the date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the President, through the Homeland Security Advisor, a report outlining all actions taken to fulfill the requirements and objectives of this proclamation; and
(b) Within 90 days of the date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall submit a joint report to the President about the conditions at the southern border of the United States and any recommendations regarding additional actions that may be necessary to obtain complete operational control of the southern border, including whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807.
The Insurrection Act of 1807 essentially allows the President to declare martial law by deploying the military to "suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion".
I still don't think that Trump is going to make a serious attempt at establishing permanent one-party rule. What would be the play, exactly? Declare permanent martial law and then cancel elections in four years? I don't think there's much appetite for that, either with him or with the members of his inner circle. But then again, I also never predicted that he would cut off military aid to Ukraine either, so my predictions have already been wrong once!
It seems like we've had a slight uptick in leftist (or at least anti-Trump) posters lately so I'd be particularly interested in hearing their thoughts.
If Anthropic is the most ethical AI company, how come they're letting my poor nigga get stuck for 2 days with no progress (seems like the last stream ended in the same spot)? He's not getting out, the context window and "knowledge base" is spammed to hell with this circular loop at this point, there's no use, just put him out of his misery and restart ffs. This is just abuse at this point.
The users trying to "corrupt" Tay were not representative and were not trying to be representative
You are literally erasing my existence, mods???
More seriously, thanks for the link, I'll watch this in background after the dev caves and restarts. Claude actually seemed pretty good at playing Pokemon before and I disagree with the notion that AI can't think spatially/temporally, it's just that spatially navigating a whole ass open world (ish) game with sometimes non-obvious routes and objectives, without any hints whatsoever, seems to be a tad too much for it at the moment. Besides in my experience, format/content looping is a common fail state at high context limits even with pure (multiturn) textgen tasks, especially with minimal/basic prompting. The current loop is a very obvious example.
On a side note, this is probably the sanest Twitch chat I've ever seen. Humanity restored.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
5mo ago
Not a demo, but the sequel to one of my favourite survival games was released yesterday.
Card Survival Fantasy Forest currently doesn't hold a candle to its predecessor Card Survival Tropical Island. The original took a couple of years to make it to 1.0 so it not really fair to judge it by that standard. Still, there are many steps backward in terms of the quest system (meant to introduce recipes and game elements to the player) and the exploration system.
I'm sure these will be ironed out over early access and I trust the devs won't abandon the game. Unfortunately in the meantime, the Chinese playerbase are review bombing the game because it doesn't reach the quality of a full release.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
5mo ago
I'll take this opportunity to point out the outlines, as of yesterday, of a real 3d chess solution from Trump and his people. I don't know where, if anywhere, this sits after the breakdown in talks in the white house today.
Reading between the lines of the proposed Minerals Deal, this is the first legitimate proposal for peace that I have seen that matches in quality my tongue in cheek proposal to put Harry and Meghan on the throne in Kiev.
Trump wants a "minerals" deal in which US companies would receive concessions to mine rare earths in Ukraine. Articles covering the deal have pointed out that many of the mineral reserves considered in that deal are in parts of Ukraine that are currently occupied by Russia. Mean spirited turbolib snickering about Trump being unable to read a map aside, I don't think that is what is going on.
European armies are mooting the idea of placing a tripwire force as "peacekeepers in Ukraine" to keep the conflict from flaring back up. The European troops, somewhere between 30,000-100,000 soldiers on the ground, would not be expected to fight the Russians so much as to provide an easy target for the Russians to force a broader WWIII scenario. Similar to the US forces on the DMZ in South Korea, or the troops in Berlin during the cold war. Prevent a Russian invasion without an unacceptable risk of triggering WWIII. In classic game theory Chicken, this is the equivalent of putting a bar in your steering wheel that prevents you from turning away, forcing your opponent to take the last clear chance to get away from the accident, pre-committing.
Trump, when asked about this proposal, replied that the minerals deal was the guarantee.
This is more intelligent and bigger than anyone realizes. To quote from my own prior comment:
The government of Ukraine cannot end the war with Russia in a position where Russia could renew the war in the future. As the permanent neutering of Russia is impossible or inadvisable, most commentators want to provide Ukraine with some kind of security guarantee from the USA/NATO/PRC that will prevent future Russian aggression, but negotiated in some unspecified way that it isn't just adding Ukraine to NATO, which it is basically assumed Russia wouldn't accept unless, as above, Russia was permanently neutered, which, as above, is impossible or inadvisable. Another problem being that Ukraine tried that shit once already, with all nuclear powers guaranteeing the integrity of Ukraine's borders, and we've seen how much that was worth when the bullets started flying. Given that Ukraine had non-alliance security guarantees in 2014 and in 2021, it does not seem like they would successfully repel Russian aggression. So how do we tie Ukraine to the NATO powers in a way that is genuinely credible and will be viewed by Ukrainians as a binding guarantee, but isn't article 5?
Trump's minerals deal eloquently cuts the Gordian Knot here. Russia doesn't have to agree to Western troops on their border, and it doesn't have to agree to NATO status, and it doesn't even have to allow for Security Guarantees. Instead, a big American mining concession in the Donbass, right on the border, acts as the tripwire. It doesn't look like enemy troops, but it serves a similar function. Russia isn't embarrassed, and Ukraine is protected, and Trump wets his beak. Brilliant.
Obviously the screaming match today seems to point in the opposite direction. But, we can pray. I hope that the conflict today was stage managed, keep in mind that both Zelensky and Trump are television stars by trade, with a mutual goal of ending the conflict on a just and lasting peace built around using American economic concessions in Ukraine to tie the US to Ukraine's security from Russia.
As someone who prays for peace each night, I hope we're seeing some deep, strategic diplomacy from the Trump administration to secure peace all without ruffling Russia's feathers, and allowing Putin to have peace with honor so as not to induce chaos. If Trump pulls it off, whatever else he does will be worth it. A very stable genius.
I've never seen anything like this. I sort of expected Trump to give him a hard time just for the cameras, but this seems to have legitimately hurt relations.
As opposed to, say, holding a peace summit with Russia without inviting Ukraine to the table, which didn't legitimately hurt relations?
This is an embarrassment to the Americans after the Americans embarrassed the Ukrainians and the Europeans. The reason you've never seen anything like this is because you've probably not been watching for it, and non-Trump presidents wouldn't have made this sort of summit after shunning a leader. Tit-for-tats aren't uncommon.
Zelenskyy was in town to sign the much-anticipated minerals deal. From what I can hear the deal was not signed.
Note, also, that the 'much-anticipated minerals deal' would have given the Americans substantial influence over the future of the Ukrainian economy. As in, 'the sort of influence that conspiracy theories are made of' influence, depending how the not-written Fund Agreement would have gone.
Zelensky might have gone forward with it had Trump offered security guarantees rather than the ability to retroactively act as if security guarantees had been offered, but that's on Trump to offer.
Ukraine needs the US much more than the US needs Ukraine. Could Zelenskyy not keep his pride contained for a few hours?
This would presume the issue was over Zelensky's pride, as opposed to terms, or Trump's pride. Also- don't ignore the potential that this may have been in part engineered.
Yesterday, media was reporting that today's meeting only happened because of France's Macron making an appeal with Trump. In turn, the Europeans were already raising their invitation of Zelensky to the 6 March summit. Within hours- which is to say, in time for the European evening news and to set the stage for tomorrow morning's news- multinational media is covering Macron backing Zelensky.
And all on a DC Friday, i.e. the cliche timing for any expected bad news story?
So you have a scenario of-
Previous Week: The Americans have a power play of having direct talks with Russia, at diplomatic expense of Ukraine and Europe
This Week: American President doesn't want to meet Ukrainian President; European VIP intervenes; Because EUR VIP intervenes, Meeting Occurs; Meeting goes poorly; EUR VIP among the first global leaders being cited
Next Week: Just who is more humiliated by US-UKR meeting is weekly news cycle; UKR-EU summit is stage-managed; Europe bolsters position vis-a-vis US; EUR VIP claims mantle of anti-Trump european leadership
HymnsOfThePearl
5mo ago
I am going through a bit of a crisis and I don’t have anyone to talk to about it. I originally met a girl in the summer of 2021 who was visiting my city for two months. The first date was inexplicably good, and the next two built on top of it. We had such an extraordinary connection, not just in the content of what we talked about, but the ease we had in sharing with each other. We talked about worldly things with great passion and very personal things with great tenderness. We both seemed to have a bottomless desire simply to know the other person as well and truly as possible. I had been in love before and I was familiar with the feelings of infatuation and euphoria that come with it, but this time there seemed to be, objectively, such strong substance supporting the feelings that it would be simply bullheaded to not let myself enjoy the experience of finding someone that I was waiting for my whole life.
The first time I had feelings that I called “love” for a girl, I was five. I was in kindergarten. At the end of the school day, having put our backpacks on, we waited for the final bell to sound. I imagined going up to her and professing that I loved her, knowing that I would then have to kill myself to avoid the deluge of vulnerability and shame that would overwhelm me after doing so. For the next two decades of my life, I would daydream about meeting someone who I not only felt such strong feelings for, but who I would feel safe enough with conveying them to and even owning them to myself. For every girl in school who I had a crush on, despite there being a good chance that they reciprocated my feelings, I was too uncomfortable admitting my feelings to myself to act. It just felt impossibly sensitive to admit to feeling this way about someone, even to a friend or family member.
In 2018, for the first time, I had had enough. I developed an infatuation with a coworker. We became incredibly intimate friends, but she was much older, and considered our age difference a nonstarter. I was twenty-three, and she was looking for a husband. I hadn’t even had my wild twenties yet, or knew who I was, she said. I was hurt, and I thought she was wrong, that we were right for each other and that our feelings could overcome these circumstances. But, after a few months of her not budging, I accepted reality and moved on. I had to reluctantly end our friendship so that I could move on romantically. At this point, this was the deepest love I had ever felt. This relationship had a level of intimacy that I had never experienced before in my life. I opened up with her about things I’ve never opened up with anyone before or since. Still, I was able to march forward. She had chosen to not pursue me and that, to me, was proof enough that we truly weren’t meant to be together. The person for me would recognize that I was the person for them. I felt this deeply and sincerely, which allowed me to move on decisively.
Over the next three years’ time, I thought long and hard about this experience and my previous experiences of what I called love. Although I had always felt that I was never wrongly turning love into a panacea, waiting around for a girl to “fix everything”, like a common stereotype of some young people, I decided that I had leaned more into that direction than I should have. I generally moved away from thinking that love could be felt or intuited and that it had to be approached much more pragmatically. I moved away from thinking that there was a “the one” or that love would have a radical effect on my life. I decided that it would be an incremental improvement, like a really good friend, that it was someone who I was attracted to and could spend time with without much trouble. I stopped looking for love as something that would bring out sides of me that normally lie dormant, or something that would make the world a bit brighter and more expansive. I made up my mind that these sorts of things were things that I had to solely influence myself. My expectations for love should shrink.
For the first time in my life, I lived as if there was no great romantic revelation waiting for me. I got a girlfriend, which was a first. It wasn’t great fun, but she was beautiful and we were “working on things”. That was how it worked, after all. People aren’t perfect and you can’t expect the world, I told myself. After a few months, it ended. I was devastated, but relieved. I did not love her and I was not in love with her. During our time together, I had constantly debated with myself if she was right for me. I was putting my new approach into practice, but it wasn’t feeling right.
The next year and a few months go by, with nothing changing in my beliefs about romance. They remained pragmatic and deflated. Then, the summer of 2021 happened. Upon seeing her in person, I’m immediately struck by something. Not love, not at all yet, just that she is beautiful and has an intriguing energy. About fifteen minutes in, and I realize that she is funny. I can’t stop giggling and neither can she. A little after that, I realize she is smart. We have incredible overlapping interests and compatibilities. We both feel at home with every topic that we bring up. Over the course of the date, she checks every box, resurrected boxes that I had given up on and checks them as well. I leave the date floating a tad.
For the first time in my life ever, after my first date, I called a friend. As I was still intensely shy about sharing my romantic feelings with other people, I didn’t intend to explicitly talk about my date. However, after a few minutes of smalltalk, he called me out – “so what’s up? First of all, you never call and second of all, you sound different.” “I just went out with a girl”. I had no shame of my feelings. I was confident that they were real, genuine, that I would feel safe from whatever dangers I had previously associated with acknowledging romantic feelings. It wasn’t just my connection with the girl that felt right, I was embracing that it felt right in a way that I had previously never embraced. Even with my old coworker who I fell for, I had kept my feelings for her private from everyone. I pursued her and dealt with my feelings for her totally privately. Owning up to the fact that I had a really sparkly, bubbly first date with someone was something new. Feeling confident in it only gave me more confidence in their nature and authenticity.
Our second date would have to wait. She was visiting her grandfather, who she barely knew, for two weeks because he lived in a nearby state. When she got back, we didn’t skip a beat. Our second date was spectacular, dizzying fun even though we just went out and had dinner and talked together. For our third date, I had plans. We were going to walk here and there, get food here, go there. As soon as we got to our first stop, which was a local beach, we decided to watch the sunset, only for a few moments. That turned into talking for five hours straight. We were simply too rooted to our conversation and each other to move. Then, around midnight, with the rest of the beach empty for the past few hours, we had our first kiss. I drove her home and then drove back to my house in solemn joy.
My experience with this girl, Natalie, was delivering me from a lifetime of unmet longings for romance. It made me feel like, sparing any sense of exaggeration, that my life had been spent on a deserted island and that I had now seen a ship dock on the beach. The sensation was thrilling particularly because of how high the stakes became. It wasn’t the amazing time spent with Natalie. It was the new way that it felt to be me as I went through my daily activities. I felt like all the sharp edges inside of me had been made to lie flush. I was feeling more equanimous and placid, than the high and exuberant feelings you might be imagining from someone talking about falling in love. The pieces of my life had finally fallen into places and made sense. I walked around knowing that I could, for the rest of my life, look back on my journey until this point and experience an appreciation and awe whenever I wanted. I felt proud of myself and positive. I felt that what I experienced, from the mundane to the painful, had been made meaningful. All of these feelings came with the realization that, despite my best efforts, I did not feel this way before Natalie. That, though I tried to do my best, I was not happy. That I did not feel like my life was meaningful. That I didn’t look at what I had done or experienced and ascribed much worth to it at all. Now, from the safety of having what I had always wanted, I could see how badly I was lying to myself that I didn’t want it or need it. I could see how poor of a shape I had been in, and how I could never be able to go back. This relationship gave my past suffering and loneliness some meaning. It was the happy ending to the life that I mostly considered a great struggle and looked at with sadness. It was getting to live out the only wish that I’ve ever had for my life on earth, experiencing being loved by a woman.
I felt all of this, but I tried to tone it down. It had only been three dates. My friend from the phone call texted me, checking in about “that girl”. I told him “that girl is probably going to be my wife one day”. I was being tongue-in-cheek, mocking the intensity of my feelings given how early it was, but I was also acknowledging, without any shame or undue sense of vulnerability, that they existed. For the first time ever, I was falling in love in a way that I thought made sense and wasn’t embarrassed of, where I could see a future. Then, we go out for a fourth time. It’s a Friday. We meet for dinner. After twenty or thirty minutes of genuinely belly aching laughter, she calms down and gives me the news. She isn’t staying in town for as long as she thought, she’s actually leaving earlier. When are you leaving, I ask. On Wednesday, she says. I can still feel the reflex from my stomach and shoulder when I heard that. I didn’t understand. I knew she was leaving eventually, but at this point it seemed like before she left we’d be able to build up to something we could take long distance, then plan to join our lives together. She had other ideas. She didn’t even have to go back. She just said she’s been gone a while and she should get back to work and she misses her friends and family. I couldn’t understand it. I thought I had met the perfect person and that she felt the same way.
Over the next few days, I was inconsolable. When we hung out on Saturday, I tried to be alright, but I couldn’t. I broke down. I communicated my heartbreak. She was supportive and nurturing and assured me she was very sad as well. I told her I don’t understand how she can do this and that it seems like she doesn’t really care about me. This hurt her, and I showed great remorse, although I did not fully understand why she was so hurt by it. We hung out again on Sunday. We said goodbye on Tuesday evening, on the beach. I had got her a present from one of our previous dates. The day before, I returned to where we sat talking on the beach and had our first kiss. I filled two small bottles with sand from the exact spot. I gave her one as a parting gift. I made her a card featuring photos of her from our time together and wrote her something very touching and poetic. I had always wanted to be able to express deep and powerful affection and now I had the opportunity to do so. I made sure to avoid it being pleading or sad, to not spoil it. I hope that it meant something to her.
In the Fall of 2022, I moved to the city where she lived. It wasn’t to chase her - I didn’t know if she still lived there – but if she was an option, all the better. I messaged her. We met and talked in the park and ended up getting dinner. We made plans to see each other again, but she had a work trip get extended and then she ghosted our text conversation. I didn’t want to seem pestering, and felt very self-conscious about the fact that I moved to her city, so I left it, decided that she didn’t want to date me but wanted to avoid the discomfort of telling me so. A few weeks went by, and I couldn’t leave it alone anymore. I couldn’t go the rest of my life without understanding if maybe there was a miscommunication, or if she was waiting for me to pursue her more, so I messaged her, asking to see her again. She let me know that she recently began seeing someone exclusively, so it’d have to be platonic. At that time, I felt like I needed the space to move on, so I told her I needed some time and space if we were going to be platonic friends.
Yesterday, I messaged her and asked how she was. She said good and how was I. I said good and said I’d love to see her. She told me she’s engaged and busy with wedding planning, but that she would like to see me too if I’m okay with it being platonic. I assume her fiance is the same person she began seeing exclusively a little more than two years ago. We saw each other a half dozen times three and a half years ago, one time almost two and a half years ago, and yet here I am. I don’t really even know this person. That is one of the painful things about it. It seemed like getting to know this person was going to be one of my favorite things I had ever done in my life, and then that didn’t happen. I never got to know her, much less have a relationship together.
I don’t think I had ever felt so sure of anything in my entire life as I was that this was going to turn into a relationship and that this relationship was going to work out. I certainly have never wanted anything so much.
The only thing that makes me feel better is writing about it.
I saw her comment a few weeks ago too about laundromats. Haven't seen what she writes on CW stuff since I've been inactive internet usage.
My favorite threads are Friday ones besides the CW.
More options
Context Copy link