domain:kvetch.substack.com
chooky
11m ago
My main complaints are haphazard rather than targeted cuts, wild overcounting of savings from cuts, failure to make substantive cuts (i.e., no government departments are more in need of efficiency than Medicare), disorganized nature of cuts leading to short term wasted resources, simultaneously serving as a means of political revenge (e.g., cuts to DEI and arts, though I personally find these cuts acceptable given deficit) but also making a whole bunch of cuts to basic research and data gathering. In general, they did not seem to hire a good team for DOGE, which resulted in a great deal of disorganization, squandering political capital and what could have been an opportunity for a sustained, broad recommitment to efficiency.
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
17m ago
At what point can one reasonably conclude that coexistence between the Red and Blue tribes isn't possible, and there's nothing left to do but wage the culture war as hard as necessary, until one side or the other fully triumphs? And what does one do after reaching that conclusion (besides leaving this site, of course, since that runs counter to the basic ethos of the Motte)?
2rafa
20m ago
This was previously vetoed by Trump as a favor to tech people (Musk, Bezos, Pichai, Altman, Ellison and Nadella), who he now likes because they flatter him and support him publicly. It was advocated by Miller and Lutnick and obviously commentators outside the admin like Bannon.
Now Trump is annoyed with Modi for buying Russian oil, which he sees as the reason for Putin being nonchalant about a deal on Ukraine, so he asks what will annoy India, and they pitch this again and he says “OK, fine” but without much more detail.
2rafa
24m ago
This is a good idea but will take decades to yield results at the top of government. It’s also true that even in Singapore most of the top politicians and government officials being paid this much are essentially the children of leading PAP members, they just happen to be a highly competent group and so have smart, capable kids.
theincompetencetheorist
36m ago
Now that you see that it is only shadows on the wall, get out of the cave! Sorry the tragedy is entertainment and you just found out that it isn't entertaining. None of these talking heads are there to inform you or improve your life, they are there to entertain you, to distract you and to passivize you while the future is being stolen by subscriptions.
phailyoor
39m ago
Hello derail. You specifically posted the previous article arguing about the effects of chip sanctions. And I said that your argument was bs.
The chinese tech sector is doing fine but that's pretty much irrelevant. If you read the exact article you just linked:
Analysts still caution that the rally is being driven as much by speculation as any real progress in areas such as chip self-sufficiency. “We don’t really know what is happening,” said BofA’s Wu, noting the lack of disclosure details from chipmakers claiming substantial advances. The market was interpreting China’s ban on buying foreign chips as evidence of progress, she added.
quiet_NaN
48m ago
The general problem here is that parenting attitude is a massive confounder. It is not like the study authors had randomly flipped coins to decide which kids would get vaccines and which ones would get saline solution instead.
There is a certain type of helicopter parent who will drag their kids to the doctor whenever it is coughing. Their kids will generally get all the recommended vaccines, but also get any diagnosis under the sun that might be vaguely applicable. If little Timmy is late (e.g. 90ths percentile) learning to speak, he will get diagnosed with a Speech Disorder, Development Disorder and ADHD. For autoimmune diseases, I think that it is much more likely that the unvaccinated kids are allowed to play in the dirt where they get exposed to pathogens. Generally, anti-vaxxers are probably more rural, e.g. somewhat closer to the ancestral environment, which might have all kinds of neurological benefits for brain development.
These two effects (diagnostic bias, systematic lifestyle differences) seem enough to explain the observed factor 6 in relative risk.
From a mathematics perspective, the table on page 17 looks a bit shoddy. If they have 8 cases of "Brain Dysfunction" in group A and none in group B, that seems to be the kind of thing you could calculate a p-value for (e.g. "What is the probability that given there is no effect, the result will be more skewed by random chance"). They do not. But then again, this may be a general shoddiness of medical research.
theory from RFK
I would not dignify anything he says with the word "theory". "Narrative" might be the better word.
At the risk of going all Bulverist on the authors, I think that his health department creates a huge demand for studies which show how dangerous vaccines are. Any professional who is willing to go on a p-fishing trip in publicly available data to bolster his narrative can possibly hope to be hired in his department.
2rafa
51m ago
Constantly angering the Arab and Islamic world is not a smart idea. Israelis may be better at fighting but they're vastly outnumbered. This is not America vs native Americans. It is provocative and obnoxious behaviour to derive national legitimacy from harsh treatment in the ghettoes and expulsions in Eastern Europe and then ghettoize the locals of a graciously granted strip of land, while continuously striving to expand it for lebensraum. This kind of behaviour has and will reduce favourability in the West.
Yes, Israel was founded in the wrong place.
Most accept this and would take it a step further, viewing defensive violence as legitimate and offensive violence as wrong.
I reject the characterization of colonialism as wrong. The end of empire led to a sustained and considerable decline in quality of life in many parts of the world.
What is their plan for EU sanctions or the US walking away? Or even just a prolonged insurgency and skirmishing with Iran that wrecks their economy? Vae victis works both ways.
While I agree that Israel’s future is very uncertain Israeli unreasonableness has yet to be tested. In the event of European sanctions and American disengagement, an end to all aid, a prolonged military crisis and food supply issues, I think there’s every chance that in the resulting domestic political upheaval they negotiate with the Europeans and Gulf Arabs and agree to some kind of two-state solution; they know if they’re overrun its lights out forever, or at least another 2000 years.
BurdensomeCount
Unable to escape TheMotte's cycle of Samsara...
1hr ago
I don't give a damn about your reverence for rules or processes. The human intestine is a process, but you don't praise its product: you flush it away.
Upvoted for this alone.
Crowstep
1hr ago
Yup, and the world's best governed country has shown that it works.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
1hr ago
The US government has much more money than Google, you should pay them even more.
But only if you can fire a politician as easily as you can fire a FAANG worker.
BurdensomeCount
Unable to escape TheMotte's cycle of Samsara...
1hr ago
The solution to that problem is to allow H-1B workers to shift employers after say 1-2 years which is how Canada and Australia do it with their permanent residence process, plus put a penalty on the employer if a worker they sponsor leaves a job with them to go elsewhere (like for example restricting them from sponsoring further workers in the short term) to ensure they provide good enough conditions that migrant workers don't want to leave them.
quiet_NaN
1hr ago
Across the board most Americans, even smart ones, regularly misestimate the sums involved in politics.
Sure, during the 2018 election, candidates, parties, PACs, and outsiders combined spent about $5 billion – $2.5 billion on Democrats, $2 billion on Republicans, and $0.5 billion on third parties. And although that sounds like a lot of money to you or me, on the national scale, it’s puny. The US almond industry earns $12 billion per year. Americans spent about 2.5x as much on almonds as on candidates last year.
For bribery specifically, I think that there might be a selection effect where illegal bribes are mostly the ones where people forgo the trappings of legality. If you want to bribe an official for 20M$, giving them a suitcase full of cash is a terrible way to go about it. Instead, you just hire them as a consultant for 2M$ a year after their public career ends -- the famous revolving door. The quid pro quo part of that is just as illegal, but also much harder to prove, and the ex-official can actually use the money without having to launder it first.
By contrast, for 10k$ that is too much overhead. You do not need to launder it, just spend it on coke or whatever.
Of course, the risk-reward ratio is much more favorable for bigger bribes. But people are not entirely rational. Bribes on the 10k$-100k$ level may seem "not a big deal" to the official unless they get caught.
Far cry from the millions that people seem to get the impression about. No, a lot of these races are more small-dollar than you'd expect.
If American politics are anything like Australian politics in this regard (which it certainly is), of course this is not how bribes work. No, it takes the form of "not bribes" where while in office, corporations and donors will invite them to galas and events with fine dining, ridiculously high "speaking fees" and so on.
But the important part is when they leave office. You can expect a nice cushy job on a corporate board paying 7 figures, or a lucrative "consulting" role. The revolving door, as they say.
That's only if you're unwilling to abuse your position outright though, unlike a particular former US Democratic Speaker of the House.
BurdensomeCount
Unable to escape TheMotte's cycle of Samsara...
2hr ago
Well this article just also came out: https://www.ft.com/content/db286a0a-ca2d-4791-809e-c9a1ac73b8ad
Archive link: https://archive.is/jSRNH
Chinese tech stocks surge past Nasdaq on the back of AI advance
Beijing’s push for chip self-sufficiency accelerates triumphant comeback for sector
The whole feeling that China has come out on top here isn't on the basis of a single article or anything but rather a more latent sentiment shared by many that the US through their actions delved too greedily and too deep and now have awoken something best left sleeping.
No_one
2hr ago
Kraut
this guy? https://youtube.com/@Kraut_the_Parrot/videos
I ran across him some time ago, he seemed like a smug liberal idiot making slickly wrong videos. Seeing as he's left twitter and moved to bsky? He was ever.. friends with e.g. Sargon?
Bizarre.
who was in turn a step down from Chapo Trap House
Can you point to something showing how these people were ever quality?
BurdensomeCount
Unable to escape TheMotte's cycle of Samsara...
3hr ago
As for me, personally, I just want to face less economic competition from people in general, it doesn't matter to me whether they're US citizens or foreigners.
Fair enough, that's actually defensible. I wouldn't agree with it but at least it is a logical reason.
ThisIsSin
PC is for progressive-conservative
3hr ago
Apparently there was a meltdown at/coming home from/because of? school that had something to do with going with the other boys to the bathroom.
And so his authority figures, on a hair trigger for trans, see trans in every GNC behavior a 4 year old exhibits. They're in a hurry to validate it, partially because they've been told they should be, but also because having a social token is just the greatest, isn't it?
that had something to do with going with the other boys to the bathroom
What, did he decide to take a piss sitting down and the other boys made fun of him for doing that? (Or for the more obvious 'being present in the boy's bathroom while looking like a girl'[1]?) You know, opposed to the way you are Supposed to, which is to casually whip that private part out, piss all over yourself and the floor and otherwise make a big mess, and that's assuming you don't have other people actively fucking with you. I don't remember if they mount the pissers low enough to be used by a kid of that height, though maybe it doesn't matter.
using backwards pronouns for himself and others
And maybe if we didn't spend the last 15 years playing stupid social games about this, this wouldn't trigger that absurd overreaction. Yes, I'm sure a 4 year old doing that means the same thing as it does when a 24 year old does that. He's not even old enough to natively know why writing "yes" or "no such luck" in the form that asks for your "sex" is funny yet.
He's not even that girly
And yet from your description he has hair long enough to 'wear it like a girl', and is not only patient enough for someone (probably a girl he gets along with) to paint his nails, but not be troubled by what it means. Sounds pretty girly to me, and perhaps more importantly, [1]I bet it probably sounds pretty girly to the average teacher, and the average 5 year old boy.
But then, it's not like that's really a bad thing... until you put him an environment that's actively trying to "encourage him to express his true feminine identity" as a consequence. That's just plain old sexual interference, and his folks really do need to protect him from teachers who insist on doing that, because they are as incapable of policing themselves as the Church was.
There's a difference between 'I think I'll wear [girl clothes] because I feel like it today' and 'I think I'll wear [girl clothes] because it validates my identity as a girl'. (There are some sensory considerations here that will result in boys actively preferring dresses under certain conditions, so that may be less connected with some sense of gender identity than might otherwise be apparent. Of course, I would say that, wouldn't I.)
Capital_Room
rather dementor-like
3hr ago
I don't give a damn about your reverence for rules or processes. The human intestine is a process, but you don't praise its product: you flush it away. Breaking the rules in this case is a good thing. It should happen more.
I'd just like to chime in here for expressing this view, which I share, in such a clear and pithy manner.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
3hr ago
How has that worked out for you? I have been thinking about whether or not I should send my kids to college. My kids are smarter than average and we plan to homeschool, so I think we could set them up for success pretty well. At the same time, I'm concerned that not having the magic paper might hinder them early in their careers. Have you experienced that?
ChickenOverlord
3hr ago
Admittedly, these people are all employed, so they're not really worried about being outcompeted by an allegedly illiterate Indian software dev.
I don't have to be unemployed to be concerned about downward pressure on wages due to an increased supply of labor.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
4hr ago
My Steam library is like an Elephant's Graveyard where EA games go to die.
The number of living humans who are actually interested in "talking philosophy" is minuscule. Even among people who are otherwise highly intelligent and capable. Even TheMotte these days is more interested in the concrete play-by-play of current events than anything theoretical. (Although frankly, this is probably not too different from the historical norm on TheMotte. Current events have always dominated the discussion. We went through an anomalously philosophical period around 2022-2023 due to the advent of AI, and since then have regressed to the mean.)
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