domain:kvetch.substack.com
The point is that "people aren't having kids" is a strong statement that's clearly evidence of some kind of catastrophe, which is presumably why you framed the question that way. People having one or two kid instead of two or three is less clearly so.
Not really. Yeah, literally zero kids is "extinction event within our lifetimes (or should I say, just barely after)", < 1 / < 2 kids, depending on were you live, combined with mass migration, is "replacement" the very idea he was mocking. So no, it has nothing to do with why I framed it that way.
Unfortunately that's the most recent chart I could find for this.
You might still be right, but it might be a bad idea to so confidently deny my claim then.
Literally who?
Huh, I always took you for a fellow Euro. And if you are, that's an odd thing to say. Maybe you're just a bit younger than me.
His party has zero seats, so this is another point in favor of the people OP is criticizing not being popular.
Maybe he should have tried being a right-winger then, might be a bit more popular now.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
16m ago
Yeah, we can quibble over the precise formulation, if you want, but the birth rates are what are. So I'm not sure what point you're making here.
The point is that "people aren't having kids" is a strong statement that's clearly evidence of some kind of catastrophe, which is presumably why you framed the question that way. People having one or two kid instead of two or three is less clearly so.
Also... the statistics you cited are from nearly a decade ago for some reason?
Unfortunately that's the most recent chart I could find for this.
Sure. I'm not exactly one of those types either, but his criticisms targeted a much larger group (like people worried about capitalism turning into neo-feudalism, which would include that well-known far-rightwinger Yannis Varoufakis).
Literally who? His party has zero seats, so this is another point in favor of the people OP is criticizing not being popular.
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Non-wokes successfully built and/or bought their own websites. Wide-spread censorship thus became impossible because the US still has strong free speech norms, so extremely strong tools like direct government censorship / DOS provider bans / payment processor bans are only used in the most exceptional cases.
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Trump won again, which damaged wokes' belief that the masses / the demography are already with them and they're only fighting a war against some retrograde holdouts. Mainstream Democrats began to realize that they simply would not win national elections running on an extremely woke platform. The fallout of how the Democratic Party handled Biden's health issues also showed that the Party has some profound incompetence issues at the very top, which led to calls for changes in strategy.
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I think it became obvious to many people who did not realize it before that the more extreme woke law enforcement policies such as "defund the police" led to direct decreases in quality of life for the average person in affected cities. At the same time, the part of the Democratic coalition which likes sending their kids to top schools began to feel threatened by DEI policies in education.
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October 7 splintered the woke-friendly coalition. However, I think that wokism was already past its peak of influence at that point.
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The constant insertion of woke political messages into popular media wore people out and made wokism seem very stale, corporate, and establishment-y.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
23m ago
I think you’re projecting things onto the situation that aren’t there. Dak’s explanation, which seems supported by the video evidence, is that Carter was talking shit to Tyler Booker, Dak came over and entered the conversation, and he had to spit, so he spit on the ground. The direction in which he spit was a result of the fact that Booker was in the way of where he would have spit if he’d wanted to make abundantly clear that he wasn’t spitting “at” Carter. Then after he spit, Carter asked him, “Did you just spit at me?” Dak then replied, “Why the fuck would I spit at you?” (A perfectly reasonable question.) Carter then very clearly and intentionally spit on Dak’s chest.
Your stance is that spitting on the ground in front of another man is inherently aggressive and instigatory? Perhaps I’m the wrong person to weigh in, as I’ve never been in a fistfight and don’t always have the strongest theory of mind regarding high-testosterone men with a violent disposition, but this seems obviously wrong to me.
jak22
27m ago
So by stuffy, its a combination of hot and just dusty. But the main thing is it just doesn't feel like there is a large amount of airflow coming from outside, as it just always feels a little hard to breathe and my nose always feel dry. I never had this problem in my old apartment.
As further evidence of air not coming from outside, I'm in San Francisco, and when I walk outside, it be chilly out. And the moment I walk into my apartment I get a blast of warm air, which strikes me as like I'm not getting enough outside air inside. And this was not the case in my old apartment whose temperature mapped pretty closely to the outside temperature.
As for vents in the new apartment, I see a few vents in my apartment, and I asked a maintenance guy if those were vents that came from the outside but due to new management in my building, the maintenance guy had only been working here for 3 days and had no idea what kind of air vents were in my apartment. So it is unclear if these are for heating, cooling, both, or to just have more airflow.
The only thing were fairly certain is there a large Amana AC/Heating unit next to the wall near the outside. Kind of looks like this one on Amazon, we think this air comes directly outside, but we can't confirm it.
As for dampers, I have no idea where to check for that, would that be at the opening of the vent? Or would it be somewhere in the ductwork?
And for filters, we did find some filters on the AC Unit, which we did clean out cause it was pretty nasty, and just generally cleaned out the AC unit writ large. And the air does feel cleaner, but I still don't feel like I'm getting enough airflow if that makes sense.
Throwaway05
34m ago
It's clear from the footage that Dak directly spat at Carter with specific intent to taunt and enrage him. Likely also with some verbal content between the two of them we can't tell from the footage. We can tell Dak knew exactly what he was doing.
In a non football context doing that could easily start a fight. That doesn't suggest that the fight is justified, or a response in kind or with escalation (spitting on instead of at) is justified.
But it's still aggressive and offensive.
If you are going to flag someone for flexing (Nolan Smith I believe?) then spitting at a player is absolutely worthy of punishment regardless of Carter overreaction.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
35m ago
No, they don't. 86% of women aged 40-44 (as of 2016) had at least one child. Perhaps you meant to ask a different question?
Yeah, we can quibble over the precise formulation, if you want, but the birth rates are what are. So I'm not sure what point you're making here.
Also... the statistics you cited are from nearly a decade ago for some reason?
Despite the screeching, none of the far right parties want to throw homosexuals off rooftops, strip normies of the franchise, or 'conscript wombs'. That's why they are popular.
Sure. I'm not exactly one of those types either, but his criticisms targeted a much larger group (like people worried about capitalism turning into neo-feudalism, which would include that well-known far-rightwinger Yannis Varoufakis).
jkf
38m ago
Drawing a gun and firing a (roughly) aimed shot inside human reaction (+movement) time does take a lot of practice -- reaching out and grabbing somebody's wrist, I'd think not so much. Faster reflexes don't really come into it -- the first mover is deciding when to act; his 'reaction' time is zero.
Can the average man really reach to disarm a knife faster than the knife holder can cut the disarming arm
Yes, if he's within reach -- this is why police etc are taught to create and maintain distance from people that they're interacting with when they draw their handgun.
It's important to note (as I mentioned) that this doesn't necessarily get you much against a physically comparable opponent -- if you have a hold of his knife arm, his other arm is still free to pummel you with -- and if he overpowers your grip on his knife hand, you are in a very convenient spot to be stabbed. But a 12 yo girl is a whole different story.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
41m ago
Statistics tell a different story, though.
No, they don't. 86% of women aged 40-44 (as of 2016) had at least one child. Perhaps you meant to ask a different question?
Funnily enough, I don't see much connection to reality in this criticism. Why is everyone screeching about "far right" parties performing well in Europe? Why is Europe adapting it's laws to enable more online censorship? Why is the UK arresting comedians for tweets? Those are not things that happen when a group is out of touch with the normies.
Despite the screeching, none of the far right parties want to throw homosexuals off rooftops, strip normies of the franchise, or 'conscript wombs'. That's why they are popular.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
46m ago
you can't throw the book at Carter and let Dak get away with instigating that.
Spitting on the field is something that every NFL player does probably 20 times over the course of a normal game. I don’t see how it’s a rules violation. Just because he was talking to another player when he did it doesn’t make it an intentional attempt to offend captivate anything or “trigger” that player.
Throwaway05
56m ago
Dak
While one is worse than the other and they are always going to get the second guy...... you can't throw the book at Carter and let Dak get away with instigating that. It's bad looks all around.
Saints
My suspicion with them is that they do not have an NFL QB and the vet talent they've been riding on for so long will have the wheels fall off.
CMC
I think he's effectively done, he may be able to still perform at a high level but not for a full season and at the expense of post-football quality of life. Man needs to hang it up. Without him though? IDK they've worked magic before.
NFCE
Agree with you, but I also think they are in for a sophomore slump. Could easily see the Cowboys or Giants somehow winning the division, especially with the tough schedule the Eagles have. Felt more comfortable with that before the Parsons trade though. Giants will be high variance.
NFCN
I feel like the Packers and Vikings are both well positioned to be the top team in the NFC...or not. Lions have to regress, right? Bears will probably be a good team but underperform in W/L because of their schedule.
Chargers Fan
I'm so sorry.
fluid_pride
1hr ago
Consider as well how completely the banks and cc companies will screw over their customers in hundreds of other ways. They will cheerfully add 47 overdraft and late fees and not reverse those, but somehow chargebacks make them squeamish?
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
1hr ago
Additionally - #DakSpatFirst.
Dak spit on the ground, and then Carter spit directly and intentionally onto Dak’s chest. I don’t think these two actions are comparable.
Just how bad the Saints are going to be.
I know Tyler Shough looked pretty all-over-the-place during the pre-season (bad enough, apparently, that the team decided to name the demonstrable terrible Spencer Rattler as the Week 1 starter) but I’m not ready to bury him before I’ve seen him in regular-season action. Their offense has a lot of very capable players, the performance of many of whom will of course come down to health. (Will Chris Olave end up with another concussion? If so, will that be the career-ender? Will Shaheed and Kamara hold up for a whole season or close to it?) The rest of their team is so devoid of talent, though, that it might not matter.
Finding out if we get Good 49ers or Bad 49ers.
Apparently CMC has quietly ended up on the Did Not Practice list as Sunday approaches. My Brian Robinson fantasy stock appears to be growing in value before the season even starts.
Which team will win the NFCE since the Eagles are curse ineligible.
Speaking of fantasy football, my Jayden Daniels ownership in my dynasty league promises to pay many dividends. If that team can just put a functional receiver corps around him that isn’t just Terry McLaurin, that team could get really scary.
How much of a shit show the NFCN will be.
All depends on how JJ McCarthy turns out, and if Jordan Love is as good as the Packers clearly believe he is, seeing as they were willing to trade away two consecutive first-round picks.
Will Chiefs performance have an impact on Swift's relationship.
I have to admit that Kelce is the most formidable competition I’ve yet faced for her affections. Lot of staying power. I need him to have a humiliating season — not only because I’m a Chargers fan, but also if I want to have any chance at her moving forward.
Throwaway05
1hr ago
Oooooooooh. Me teach sport. Real football. Or fake football? Ball touch foot less, maybe fake.
-The start of the season was last night and within six seconds of the game starting two black players spat at/on each other on national television. Both were some of the most important players in the game. The NFL had decided to emphasis professionalism this year. Oops.
-One of the teams (the Saints) engaged in very risky and tricky team composition management for years and now are dealing with the fallout in a catastrophic hilarious fashion. They are so so bad (at least on paper).
-One of the historically better teams in the league (49ers) seems to alternate between nearly winning it all and sucking ass on a yearly basis. It's funny.
-One of the divisions (NFCE) has had exceptionally good parity, no-one has "won the division" in back to back years in decades. Eagles won last year (and the Super Bowl). Will they break the curse?
-One of the divisions (NFCN) was comically competitive last year, with three out of the four teams being arguably some of the best teams in football. Will they take a step back?
-Chiefs. Yeah you know this one.
TheLoser
1hr ago
"Ibrahim" isn't a Muslim name. It's literally jusy the arabic version of Abraham; plenty of Arab Christians from Christian families have it.
Ali is distinctly not a popular name in non-islamic cultures, since it is very distinctly Muslim coded. Also, I don't know where you got that Ali is the short form of Alexander from. The short form for Alexander is Alex, not Ali.
Anecdotally, a surprising amount, a lot. The majority of my coworkers approaching 30s, myself included.
Statistics tell a different story, though.
It’s just funny to see those grand declarations and nothing else. Speaking to the in-group only, reinforcing the feeling of doom within the in-group, exactly the same way the leftists do it. I’m probably much closer to “a normie” nowadays, so the internal rhetoric feels jarring, detached from the reality of my own life to a tremendous degree.
Funnily enough, I don't see much connection to reality in this criticism. Why is everyone screeching about "far right" parties performing well in Europe? Why is Europe adapting it's laws to enable more online censorship? Why is the UK arresting comedians for tweets? Those are not things that happen when a group is out of touch with the normies.
roystgnr
1hr ago
I'll say Helen Keller International; if for some reason I win but neither they nor I are around then go ahead and take your pick of Free Software orgs.
teleoplexy
1hr ago
How many people are having kids?
Anecdotally, a surprising amount, a lot. The majority of my coworkers approaching 30s, myself included.
What's wrong with writing a blog post sometimes?
It’s just funny to see those grand declarations and nothing else. Speaking to the in-group only, reinforcing the feeling of doom within the in-group, exactly the same way the leftists do it. I’m probably much closer to “a normie” nowadays, so the internal rhetoric feels jarring, detached from the reality of my own life to a tremendous degree.
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
1hr ago
That makes us what, three years old in our latest incarnation? Very lindy by niche internet fora standards. I look forward to many more.
independent user-funded (ad-free!) open political speech forum
Not for us mods, I have some of the spam messages seared into my retina, haha.
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
1hr ago
This is highly inscrutable to me, barring the reference to Taylor Swift's ?fiancee ?husband. Still, I hope that everyone has fun!
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
1hr ago
· Edited 1hr ago
Two mutually-reinforcing effects.
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SJ had control of all the major platforms, and an aura of inevitability, which meant the apparent level of SJ was considerably higher than the real one (due to anti-SJ being bannable, due to algorithmic fuckery, and due to people pretending to be more SJ-aligned than they actually were out of fear of cancellation).
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Peer pressure is a thing (particularly for people who aren't habitual contrarians like, y'know, much of this site's membership), and it works off apparent peer group.
The Twitter sale (and SJ's failure to neutralise that sale via Bluesky) directly destroyed #1. That, in turn, rapidly cancelled out large chunks of #2. So some of it's real (see e.g. the Voice referendum in Australia, or Trump's re-election), but not all (or rather, some of it was never real to begin with).
Do note that sites like SpaceBattles and Wikipedia with stronger moderation and weaker network effects have not, TTBOMK, rebounded nearly as much.
lollol
1hr ago
Not very well thought out thought at the moment but I think my counters to this are:
- Correlation is not causation.
- History is long, but is it really that long yet? We might need more sample sizes of one racial group trying to war against another racial group.
- Hard to A/B test this.
- Hard to define racial groups.
- Civilizational abilities == racial abilities is debatable and can't be assumed.
birb_cromble
1hr ago
The Dread Jim
Help me out here, please. Who is this guy? What makes him notable?
Excellent response. We should be friends.
And yes, I endorse all of the above. Mainly I'm not saying more because later in the series (especially in books three and four) I take all this in what would seem to current readers an extraordinarily-surprising direction and I don't want to tip my hand yet.
Men can be more than brutes, and women can be more than whores. Not in Tidus! But we do not live in Tidus. And book two is set in a different world at any rate.
I'm working on (for a very loose definition of "working") a post detailing my thoughts on the psychosocial consequences of HBD on the members of genetically disadvantaged races
Looking forward to it. I touch on this here and there in this book. Different is generally worse. And that holds true even when it's better!
Secondly, we've seen that 'different' can be a good thing when it comes to mates. As a man myself I happen to feel greatly appreciative of certain specific feminine differences! But even among potential mates, 'different' is still often a bad thing.
Consider the position of an organism looking for a partner. First it encounters a potential mate which is different in terms of being noticeably inferior. This is obviously a bad deal, especially for females, who have sharply-limited reproductive potential. Mating with an inferior organism will produce inferior offspring — quite contrary to the entire point of the reproductive exercise! But then it encounters a potential mate which is different in terms of being noticeably superior. Great, right?
Alas, no. At least, not usually.
This new potential mate isn't interested in coupling with our prospective organism. Why would it be? We just saw that this wouldn't make sense. So instead, the superior organism will go on to find another superior organism, leaving ours alone and very probably heartbroken. Ours may, in time, find something at its own level — but if there are superior ones reproducing out there, their offspring are likely to supplant and thus extinguish those of our organism.
From chapter one.
I stick with my previous hypothesis that the woke movement its own period of dealing with failed prophecies and that's why it's currently declining. The impulse behind woke was that everyone wanted it except for a few backward people on the internet. But look at what happened in 2022 ~ 2023:
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