domain:streamable.com
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
10m ago
I understand not remembering who specifically said it, but why are you acting like the idea is out there that you're literally unable to come up with a motive for it?
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
12m ago
Flu is almost always symptomatically indistinguishable from COVID. Not very many people need to know or care about the exact taxonomy of a moderate respiratory infection, and frankly speaking, most don't doctors don't either. To the minor extent that treatment might differ, we'd mentally just keep that bit in mind. It would hardly be the worst name in the world.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
1hr ago
Maybe you're thinking of Biden? https://youtube.com/watch?v=ciwyYnwYFaQ?si=nEANKgR7xGw6h2Vk
FtttG
1hr ago
Certainly Sweden's excess death toll was lower than the European average, which seems like the most damning statistic for the efficacy of lockdowns.
FtttG
1hr ago
Civil war era US had a tenth of present day US population. Scott surely knows this.
He changed that paragraph from "deadliest" to "highest fatality" when several people in the comments pointed out that the civil war was still more lethal per capita.
jkf
1hr ago
reports that a vaccine "merely" health risks to the recipient by 90%
Unfortunately we don't even really have enough evidence to quantify conclusively what the 'severity' benefit really was -- the initial trials were underpowered for anything to do with severity/death, and of course were terminated once the companies got their approval. (in that the control arm got real shots)
So there's no RCT to quantify this benefit, and the population-level studies are hopelessly muddled by a mixture of hard to correct for demographic confounders and sheer politics/CW. Plus all the different strains -- it's hard to say for sure, but seems clear that Omicron was very not-severe as compared to earlier strains -- so when a person got Covid is probably even more important than his vaccination status, severity-wise.
Yup. Seems at least B movies with live actors are finished soon. Unless it's cheaper to film which I doubt except in the most minimalist arthouse cinema. The hope for the Screen Actor's Guild is many people miraculously form strong, lasting opinions to only pay to watch live action media. It hadn't occurred to me that this will cause the death of many entertainment celebrities. I didn't categorize them much of artists I suppose.
2D3D
2hr ago
no university has a department of data fabrication
Except they do? Soft sciences all suffer massively from replication crisis, but faked data is a huge problem that goes unchallenged and covered up till it could not be hidden anymore. Francesca Ginos work on behavioral science was totally fabricated and earlier attempts to highlight it were quashed till 9 years later. Roland Fryers work on black outcomes was quashed because he went against the orthodoxy of white supremacy being responsible. Hard sciences also suffer from dubious research overenthusiastically seeing shadows in slides.
I think its fair to see the prestige of academic research as a dead end if they don't stand the test of the real world. The endowments and sinecures lavished are rewards for satisfying the emotional wants future billionaires whose nostalgia overweights the contributive effect of their university years to their success. The actual practical knowledge of university is either relevant only to the arcana of the universities internal minutae or only temporarily substantive as the world is so dynamic. Spending eight years locked in your lab to dissect nanoparticle impregnation becomes irrelevant when corning glass comes up with 5 different product iterations in the meantime.
hydroacetylene
2hr ago
I don’t care about annoying the CCP, I care about annoying the people that pushed lockdowns on me and mine.
And we have herd immunity now. Some of that might be vaccines but the clear selective pressure on the virus was to become a cold. Faster spread=more generations=it turns into omicron faster.
Fruck
Lacks all conviction
2hr ago
I'm not finding it either, even though I remember watching her say it, and mocking it with my friends so frequently I can remember the exact quote. And when I widened my search it got even better - apparently no US official ever said anything like that!
We are so fucked as a species.
No_one
2hr ago
If I'm not mistaken what they're showing off now -virtual environments training etc was showed off in China months before. Ofc people claim those demos were faked etc.
NVDA's share price might be a bit overvalued. Chinese will likely catch up within a few years. They've got all the TSMC people they need and everyone working on replicating EUV etc. And with US trying to ban foreign installs of Huawei Ascends, people now see that Huawei actually has a useful product..
Shirayuki
3hr ago
Interesting, thanks.
The current evidence seems to align with my preconceptions that absolutely nothing has happened so far for humans, although I wasn't aware of that dog trial which does seem promising. Perhaps it's true that AI will lead to further innovation in the space, but personally I'd at least like to see some immortal mice before I start hoping to overcome the human condition.
Really, really disappointed with that post of his.
-Civil war era US had a tenth of present day US population. Scott surely knows this.
-mostly old people died now so low QALY losses compared to say, Spanish flu.
He knows all this, he's smart, we know this, yet he doesn't say it. Why?
I dislike how he brushes over 'lab leaks'.
Ironically, most of US lab leaker proponents are (probably) brushing over a the fact that covid was not made by the 'bat woman' Shi Zhengli in Wuhan, but was made in a US lab in Montana as part of a project to 'Defuse' bat coronaviruses in wild bat populations by circulating particular strains of viruses in them.
This is a complex set of claims which it'd take some serious effort to verify, but it does seem plausible and explains anomalies such as the disclosure of the genome by Shi in early '20 etc.
Anyway on the link there's an entire podcast episode that goes over it in detail.
astrolabia
3hr ago
the incentive to be truthful and honest is minimal.
Except to the extent we can avoid doom through correct perception and action.
Kamala Harris - "The vaccine will prevent you from getting covid."
Link?
The closest I found was here, but it's explicitly about protection from hospitalization and death.
Lewis2
3hr ago
The total number of excess deaths is probably the best you can do, but even that isn’t perfect, since it also encompasses deaths from delayed medical treatment, deaths of despair, etc., due to the shutdowns.
ulyssessword
3hr ago
Does anyone have a citation for...
I'm starting to feel like AI use is the new "just google it" for basic factual questions. This says:
- Deaths from COVID and deaths with COVID were both counted and reported in different places.
- "However, surveillance and public health reporting sometimes used broader definitions for statistical purposes, such as counting deaths within a certain period after a positive COVID-19 test as "COVID-related deaths," particularly in the UK and some US states."
After all that the citations are the BBC (reporting on the change from "anyone who has ever had COVID, regardless of whether it contributed to their death or not" to "anyone who has had COVID in the past 28 days, regardless of whether it contributed to their death or not"), and Colorado Public Radio ("Deaths from" vs. "deaths with").
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
3hr ago
I dislike how he brushes over 'lab leaks'. That should've been the real story, it's more important than all other factors and especially more important than feeling sad about the death toll.
Nothing was learnt from COVID. Literally nothing, gain of function research is still continuing. Everyone knows that gain of function research caused this disaster. But nobody can be bothered to do anything about it, Trump has frozen federal funding into gain of function. A funding freeze is not remotely proportionate for the megadeath machine.
Speaking anonymously, an HHS source revealed that one of the researchers poked a hole in the other's protective equipment during a vicious 'lovers' spat'.
Dr Connie Schmaljohn, the lab's director, was also placed on administrative leave after she allegedly failed to report the incident to other officials.
In a previous incident in May 2018, anthrax may have been accidentally released from the boiler room at one of the labs in Fort Detrick, Maryland, and into a nearby river where people were planting lilypads. No illnesses were reported as a result of the potential release.
This is a BSL-4 lab by the way, America's top people. Wuhan was BSL-3. These doctors have been behaving like clowns with the most dangerous technology on the planet. There's no sign of any professionalism, considering the danger of their work. The acceptable number of lab leaks is zero, it's the same as the acceptable number of accidental nuclear strikes. The AI community seems to care more about bioweapon risk, that's a big part of the whole AI safety rhetoric. But why should anyone care about whether AIs can synthesize bioweapons when the experts are already doing it so carelessly?
This stuff should be done out on South Georgia island near the south pole, or somewhere incredibly remote with a huge mandatory quarantine period, if and only if it's absolutely necessary. Otherwise, anyone who tries to do gain of function, especially with humanized mice like they were doing for COVID (like Daszak boasted about in his tweets) should be treated like Osama Bin Laden, with special forces coming in to shoot them on sight.
The right of scientists to publish cool papers and do interesting research in convenient locations does not come above the right to life, freedom and property for tens, hundreds of millions.
faceh
4hr ago
As a side note: why are you bullish on LEV?
Keeping up with the literature, it seems very much like the 'code' of why aging occurs/effects us the way it does has almost been cracked. In short, the information that our cells use to reproduce starts to accumulate errors from both internal and external causes and their ability to repair those errors diminishes in kind (the more errors to repair, the more strain on the repair system). This leads our cells to A) become cancerous, B) Become senescent (nonfunctional but still 'active'), and C) change/mutate to a different type of cell, which obviously isn't helpful.
Eventually this cascades to full organ failure, and we die.
i.e. the science seems to 'know' the reason we 'get old.' The systems behind it are becoming better understood, and now the hunt is on for various methods or drugs or therapies that can trigger or reinforce natural repair systems or otherwise keep the cells reproducing accurately for much longer.
This is an actually tricky question, but a LOT more interest in this area has led to increased funding. It does seem likely that a couple silver bullets might emerge in the near future.
There's the obvious question of "where are the immortal mice?" And I think that's probably the thing that gives me the most doubt. If there's a surefire
But watch out for interventions to extend canine lives. There's clearly something brewing.
And of course. "where are the immortal Billionaires," who could obviously afford any treatment they want, regardless of how experimental or illegal? Although I'd certainly suggest that the Billionaires just hitting their 50's and 60's these days are looking less decrepit than usual.
And I want a Goddamn explanation for how Tom Cruise is still hanging from airplanes in his early 60's. That doesn't invoke Thetans.
However I am reserving some bearishness for the possibility that the whole field is suffering from the current scientific crises where p-hacking, fraud, and failed replications are running rampant. For instance, studies of Blue Zones where extreme human longevity seems to be more common, seems likely to suffer from poor record-keeping, which is to say we can't be sure anyone is really as old as they say.
And that means the information gleaned from studying them will be inherently flawed. This might have ripple effects on the field's validity, if their model of 'extreme' longevity (and thus the metrics they're chasing) are on shaky grounds.
But the motivation to solve this issue is huge, and AI drug discovery is already a thing, so I'd expect some breakthroughs to emerge relatively soon. Maybe we get those immortal mice.
and in the meantime there are definitely a number of smaller interventions that, when done consistently, can up your chances of keeping healthy long enough to survive until aging reversal becomes feasible.
Totalitarianit
4hr ago
We don't disagree that diversity has been used manipulatively and that it has become a loaded term. The deeper point here though is about the loss of a shared version of reality, and our liberal framework's helplessness when it comes to stopping it. Diversity of opinion and thought is great, but not at the expense of an epistemic unraveling that was built over countless generations. State capacity can be quite a burden if it's no longer representative of its people, and in a society that can't decide what it represents, state involvement is obviously becoming more and more in the way. The problem with the liberalist notion is that the absence of a state or central authority results in a vacuum that will inevitably be filled whether you'd like it or not. To that, I would say the state isn't created and maintained out of desire. It's created and maintained out of necessity.
I can't tell if you're addressing me personally, or the idea of people in general pushing Christianity, but if you're presenting that as the only alternative then, yes, I would support that change in direction, at least temporarily. I see a world where people crave meaning, and while the response doesn't need to be some 1950s style cultural Christianity, my intuition and experience tells me there probably should be some type of fundamental moral architecture that can't be uprooted so easily.
Fruck
Lacks all conviction
4hr ago
Fucking everybody bud. If the zeitgeist position on vaccines wasn't 'they make you immune' the politicians and the media wouldn't have been so cavalier about safety concerns. If your gish gallop needs names, start with Kamala Harris - "The vaccine will prevent you from getting covid."
GeneralElephant
4hr ago
My grandfather died of COVID in his mid 80s but he had had 4 heart attacks, a quadruple bypass surgery and was almost as round as he was tall… it was a miracle he lived that long to begin with….
Barfknuckle
4hr ago
So yeah HBS Battletech. Deep in my heart I wish to go full RogueTech and grow a mighty beard, but for now I game on a laptop and I don't really want to fuck with too many mods, so I basically play vanilla plus all DLC but with some personal json edits that don't change combat or mechanics.
I want to know two things. One, what are your ultimate dongs-out mech builds in vanilla HBS Battletech? Like I know for some people vanilla might be quaint, but humor me. Suppose you just want to dominate the game, fart on the Black Widow, beat the Bounty Hunter like a rented mule. What are your ultimate "naw see I told you this game was easy, watch this" builds?
Also, does anyone else fuck with their jsons? I give out the goodies faster and I make more fun missions spawn, I make pirates potential employers in every system, set the incidence of nonbinary NPCs to zero because lol, and make it possible to take missions attacking the Arano Restoration.
Oh yeah and what's the lowest impact way possible to get Land-Air Mechs into the game?
I'm fortunate enough that nobody in my extended family outright died of COVID, but it put a family member in the ICU and others were severely sick. It absolutely wasn't a normal year by those standards.
A med student, who happens to be my brother's best friend and also my pupil, lost his dad to a fungal infection following an ICU admission after COVID. On a more extended basis, I certainly saw plenty of people die in the ICU I was responsible for during the worst of the pandemic.
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