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"Reality being that AI is not going to become superduper post-scarcity fairy godmother or paperclipper"

Do you understand why people are not convinced that superintelligence won't happen just because AI is being used for military purposes?

The arguments around superintelligence have nothing to do with whether or not AI is being used for military purposes. It's completely tangential.

Yeah don't date one, but you gotta keep in mind that if you are seeing them (at this phase in your training) it's either so bad they are on an inpatient psych unit or in the ED, or they are in the hospital for other reasons and they are such a pain in the ass that the diagnosis makes itself clear.

In training you'll get the skills to pick up more mild cases in the community, and presumably also see more mild cases in therapy clinic.

This also is true for things like depression and anxiety (early in training you'll only see total shit shows, but more mild cases exist they just don't need you).

This is also, also true for things like hypertensive emergency vs. generally outpatient family medicine seeing mostly controlled shit.

Hmm.. I assume my experience here is markedly different primarily because the general level of awareness surrounding mental health in general, and BPD in particular, is so poor that anyone who still manages to get the label is absolutely fucking insane.

And of course, there are plenty of people who keep things under control or are barely worth the diagnosis. And it's the flagrant cases who get signal boosted. Would we know Freddie De Boer was schizo, or Scott had OCD, if they didn't tell us?

calm down just by aging

That's about as reassuring as the same effect in violent criminals, who do age out of their tendencies. I'd rather not have to wait that long, so I hear BPD, I'm fucking out, at least romantically.

It helps if you learn to appreciate unflavored tea.

Already got you there. Never been a coffee person, and have quite the selection of loose-leaf teas in my cabinet. (It helps to have a "tea and spice" shop half a mile away.)

But ultimately, there are some people out there whom I love, who love me, and as long as they're alive and in touch with me, I don't want to hurt them.

This is the same position my therapist takes. It works, somewhat, but there are I times where I seriously begin weighing the benefits of "being selfish," and at what point ending my suffering will outweigh any grief I may cause my family. (At the very least, once my Mom passes…)

Did you ever watch "The Wire"?

Nope.

In the meantime, I try to find little pleasures in life

Yeah, I don't really have those — not nearly enough to "fill the days."

Borderline is better conceptualized as more like depression or anxiety than schizophrenia when it comes to severity. Many people with depression or depressive thought process never present for care, nor do they need it. Some of these people kill themselves.

The same is true with Borderline. At state hospitals in the U.S. you often see a mix of psychosis and severe borderlines who won't stop hurting themselves. It can be very bad. You also have borderlines where the symptoms are so rare or mild that you'd have to have a long relationship with a therapist to catch it.

Don't underestimate how "harmless" it can be.

When it comes to treatment it is treatable. Certain kinds of therapy work (chiefly DBT). Patients accumulate coping skills and calm down just by aging. Medications don't work great but can be helpful for symptomatic management.

I do think it’s a failure state to be aware of, though.

Sure.

But then, how do you suppose an American monarchist like me might go about becoming more politically active locally, particularly while keeping in mind and avoiding said failure state?

Tons of people are influential in their day, but that doesnt mean we have to keep worshipping them forever. Rasputin, for example.

Im not really talking about freud at all, im talking about the people who continue to cite him and use him into the current day, despite him being widely discredited by his own field. And its the same people who are still unreformed Marxists.

Antisemitism has less to do with people not liking jews and more to do with people being annoyed with things jews do. Pogroms weren't caused by abstract hate of jews, it was caused by people being fed up with how the jews were behaving. The best thing jews could do would be to stop provoking people around them and stirring up conflicts.

So I take it that in your view, the Holocaust was because all these evil Polish Jews were meddling in German politics.

I hate to break it to you, but Jews do not act as a coherent group. If you find Jews on two sides of an issue, that is not because they decided to infiltrate both sides, but because they genuinely believe in different things. In any somewhat meritocratic system, some Jews will likely come out in the top 1%. Some Jews will be doctors, lawyers and so on. Some will be intellectuals all over the political spectrum, from the fringe left to conservatives (if the Nazis and their ilk were not rabidly antisemitic, I am sure that some Jews would have joined them as well). A lot of them will have perfectly normal middle class jobs. Of course, some of the rich ones will throw their money around trying to influence politics. Or commit sex crimes. Good thing gentile industrialists never do that!

For Germany 1933, antisemitism was the placebo therapy. Plenty of poor people found capitalism wanting and were disillusioned with democracy. Rather than waiting for a communist revolution (which would have been terrible for other reasons), gentile industrialists were funding Hitler. There were Jewish bankers and industrialists, and the Nazis managed to convince enough of the population that rather than the Jewish banker and the gentile banker being the problem (as the commies would see it), or unbridled capitalism being the problem, the Jewish banker and the Jewish barber were the problem.

host population

That phrase is Problematic.

Charitably, you want to suggest that the Jews are guests to the host population. This is wrong, Jews are members of their nation states as much as anyone. German and French Jews both did their share of foolish dying at Verdun, same as any other Germans and French did. Some US Jews lived there back before it was independent. The trope of the faithless, nationless Jew is from old European antisemitism. In reality, it was the other way round: whenever a monarch was feeling particularly Christian, they would banish all the Jews from their realm.

Of course, less charitably, you know exactly what phrasing you are using and the word opposite to the host is "parasite", which is also an old antisemitic trope.

The major annoyance of Western rightists is that "reactionary Jews" still oppose White ethnocentrism and support Jewish ethnocentrism (you fall into this category as well as far as I'm concerned). Both left and right-wing Jews engage in that behavior.

That's why it's a "fake" opposition.

Both the Jewish left and right support Jewish identity politics and vehemently oppose White identity politics. The entire left-right spectrum is meant to prop up this central pillar of political organization, which both sides of that political dialectic so happen to agree on, that's why it's a false opposition.

In liberal cities, colleges are calling the cops because they don’t want to lose Jewish donors. I think if we have an in-part privately funded university system it’s fair to say “I’m not going to continue to donate hundreds of millions of dollars to you if you tolerate X” and then the university can decide if that matters to them. If it does, that isn’t blackmail, it’s how almost all charity works. If you donate a few hundred million to the NY Phil you can probably finagle some influence over what’s played.

It seems like you're not really contradicting @coffee_enjoyer but simply explaining how the influence works? It's not some shadowy cabal, it's money. An awful lot of the donations for universities comes from wealthy jewish donors. Especially the kind of donations that come in regularly, year after year, with no specific purpose (as opposed to one-off donations from someone who dies and wants a new building named after them- that's nice, but it doesn't really help pay the general expenses of the university). Those donations start off no-strings-attached, but you suddenly see the strings when they call up and demand a specific action.

I don't have any specific numbers, but it does seem like a hugely disproportionate amount of private university donations comes from these wealthy Jewish donors. Probably even more so in schools like Colombia and USC where we've seen the harshest crackdowns on protestors.

I think it is uncontroversial that societies at similar tech levels can have vastly different amounts of inequality.

There is inequality ("oppression" in modern parlance) both in ancient fucking Sparta and modern day Sweden, but the amount of inequality matters.

Despite coming from the traditional left, I believe some inequality is actually beneficial: if Elon Musk collected the same UBI as everyone, this would not make the world a worse place (except for Twitter, perhaps). On the flip side, taking the land away from aristocrats and redistributing it to the peasants may likewise stimulate the economy as well as lowering the Gini coefficient.

Who is on top and who on the bottom only matters to me as far as their economic policy might differ due to their background.

https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/10/26/alcoholics-anonymous-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/

I finally got so exasperated that I put on my Research Cap and started looking through the evidence base.

My conclusion, after several hours of study, is that now I understand why most people don’t do this.

The entire situation is complicated by a bigger question. We will soon find that AA usually does not work better or worse than various other substance abuse interventions. That leaves the sort of question that all those fancy-shmancy people with control groups in their studies don’t have to worry about – does anything work at all?

Reality being that AI is not going to become superduper post-scarcity fairy godmother or paperclipper

While I do not think that ASI in this century is overly likely, I do not think that the present AI boom is over. It could be that we will look back on 2024 in a decade deep in the next AI winter and say "this was peak AI, we tried for a few years to throw more hardware at the LLMs had little to show for it with exponentially increasing costs"

But even then, the equilibrium with today's AI technology will transform our work lives at least as much as the digital revolution. Looking at security cameras and seeing if something bad is going on was a job, or at least a huge part of a job. Driving a truck for hours along the highway was a job. Converting a text to bullet points and back was a job. Making thematically appropriate illustrations to text-heavy articles was a job. Writing articles based on a press release was a job.

It used to be, human brains had cornered the market on general purpose neural networks. If it was to complicated to train a dog to do it (which would be another human job) you used a human.

AI does not have to become a better writer than Scott Alexander or a better narrator than Eneasz or a good programmer to put a good portion out of the population out of a job.

Perhaps we will find other niches because we have greater adaptability (i.e. require far less training) and have good manual dexterity and tend not to freak customers out. Or perhaps we will simply not return to the state where the vast majority of the adult population works. In which case governments may decide to pay people off to keep them from burning all the robots. Post-scarcity is a scale, and from the viewpoint of history we are already moving along that scale, even if we do not have a free Mars rocket for everyone and may never have.

And with regard to the paperclip maximizer, I feel it is premature to declare victory. If neural networks ever reach the same level of maturity as plumbing, where the pipes are generally the same way they were four decades ago, then you can tell us doomers that we should calm down because obviously nothing is going to happen any time soon.

Of course, as you know even Turks and (largely Sephardic at that time) Jews were ‘white’ in the colonial and early independent American hierarchy, which was tripartite (white, native, black). Nevertheless ‘pure’ along with the rest of the quote and a desire to preserve that purity suggests this is not merely a matter of being partial to one’s own tribe but an actual judgment of the gradation of races. There is no doubt that while many founding Anglo-Americans were willing to accept European settlers of diverse backgrounds as fellow citizens they wished to preserve a predominantly Anglo character and ethnic supermajority in their new country. My original point was that WASPs did practice in-group tribalism and loyalty, it just faded or they could not keep up with (or did not wish to stop) the rate of inbound migration. There was consternation about losing Philadelphia, Boston, New York to the white ethnics. As late as Lovecraft’s time it was a topic of considerable debate, although by that point the ship had long sailed.

That's still not a scam.

Pressure, stress, and thinking hard are connected to movement which probably plays a role. Pacing, tapping a foot or shaking a leg while sitting, just being more tense in general... along with the things you've noticed.

Haha, don't worry, I'm not quite ready to give up on dating yet, be it online or in person. The six women (or 5 and a "woman") I described are just the worst of the lot, though the fashion designer and psychologist seem to me like decent people going through a bad time.

My aunt, PBUH, is trying to look for single med students and doctors, or at least those were the ones she laid on the table when nobody asked. I'd hope that acts as a reasonable filter for IQ or competence. My own IQ, well it's respectable, and my competence has improved by leaps and bounds, yet I'd certainly appreciate a girl who has her shit together better in comparison, though I'm certainly much better than I used to be in that regard. Turns out that a great deal of my depression was from a sense of frustration that my career wasn't going anywhere, and all I had to look forward to was beating my head against the wall of more exams. Fortunately, said wall has crumbled before my cranium did, and I'm feeling much better. Certainly to the degree I'm going around trying to (misguidedly) help people with their issues.

I definitely have tendencies in that direction, but you have to stretch to get to 5/9

So you have borderline Borderline Personality Disorder?

Look, it's not personal, I'm not one to blame people for their mental disorders or personality problems. Mainly because it doesn't help, or make a difference. But trust me and my far more senior colleague @Throwaway05 that people with BPD can be dangerous. The severity of the symptoms can vary greatly, but even with my proclivities towards waltzing into people's lives with my sleeves rolled up and eager to help, that would be a moth heading right for a naked flame.

When they're good, they're great. When they're not, well, the risk of them ruining your life is frankly unacceptable, and one of them already had a good crack at that from a full degree of separation, didn't even get the crazy good sex bit as compensation.

The more flagrant cases have my profound pity, as do people with certain other mental issues, like my buddy with schizophrenia (as I mentioned elsewhere, it was him who was dating the chick, and I've already mentioned how I had to save him from a suicide attempt not that long ago). I'm more than happy to see people like that in a consultation room, but not in my personal life.

Worst part is that, as far as I'm aware, medical and psychological intervention doesn't make much of a difference. It's largely just the way they are, for factors out of their and my control. All I can do from my end, especially when looking for dates and not patients, is keep them several miles away.

Lots of places sell or "misplace" their mailing lists to other parties.

I’m exactly the same.

The Kibbutzim are communes

That's definitely true. I don't know much about past Zionism, I guess, mostly just about the last 15 years, maybe.

You’re conflating “white” as the term used to refer to European peoples, with “purely white” of complexion which Franklin refers to. That context is complexion. The founding fathers unanimously believed that common European people were “white”, as French and Spaniards were granted citizenship during a time in which it was restricted to whites. I mean, you should know that, France was a key ally to America at this time.

So Frankin makes this aside that he likes his ethnicity, and then says

But perhaps I am partial to the Compexion of my Country, for such Kind of Partiality is natural to Mankind

Given that it's listed as being from Australian English, I might have spelt it the same way. It wouldn't seem much different than what they do with their vowels in other places. ;-)

It's a nifty word, thanks for sharing!

I have no doubt that a decent fraction of the actual Arabs and Muslims who go to these protests in the US are anti-semitic, but I also think that that only a tiny fraction of the rest of the protesters are.

The problem for Jews is that, under the progressive framework, they have absolutely no cause to criticize someone beneath them on the oppression hierarchy, so those Muslims may be a minority, but they cannot be questioned.