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naraburns  nihil supernum  6mo ago (text post)   28856 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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With the reports of Egypt notifying Israel in advance of an impending attack, people here and elsewhere have wondered if Bibi maybe let the attack slip through on purpose to consolidate power. Overnight he went from dealing with protests against his judicial reforms and the draft to having those problems disappear and securing the full backing of a broad unity government with his former opposition.

But Jerusalem Post just released a pretty damning poll:

An overwhelming majority of 86% of respondents, including 79% of coalition supporters, said the surprise attack from Gaza is a failure of the country's leadership...

Furthermore, almost all of the respondents (94%) believe the government has responsibility for the lack of security preparedness that led to the assault on the South, with over 75% saying the government holds most of the responsibility...

A slim majority of 56% said Netanyahu must resign at the end of the war, with 28% of coalition voters agreeing with this view.

In addition, 52% of respondents also expect Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to resign.

In addition, most respondents also noted that they do not trust the government to lead the war on Gaza, though the poll was held prior to former defense minister Benny Gantz joining an emergency unity government on Wednesday evening.

Is there any way for Bibi to hold onto power? If not, what might the future look like?

I think Netanyahu's going to retire or be shoved out of the public sphere regardless of what extent he 'knew' an attack was coming. The pre-October doctrine where Gaza was left to Hamas with business relations, a jobs program, and occasional missile exchanges and shooting atrocities was Netanyahu's brainchild, a major bet that no matter Hamas' public doctrine it wouldn't do anything as an organization outside of The Usual. It was a sad and bloody sort of 'deescalation', where a 'win' for Hamas was a gentleman's agreement for the Israeli's to not explode every member of Hamas' senior leadership, but they had eight years of that and it was a lot nicer for Hamas leadership than exploding, and the rule brought everyone to this.

((Separately, the emphasis on the failed judicial reform bill in a lot of these theories is kinda goofy. Netanyahu didn't win, but neither did Biden get a SCOTUS expansion. They gambled some political capital and lost; it's not the end of the world.))

((Separately, the emphasis on the failed judicial reform bill in a lot of these theories is kinda goofy. Netanyahu didn't win, but neither did Biden get a SCOTUS expansion. They gambled some political capital and lost; it's not the end of the world.))

I'm not sure what you mean by either of these, Netanyahu was successful in his judicial reform bill, pending SC review; Biden was against the SCOTUS expansion and never tried.

I think it's more the optics of six months of large scale protests disapearing overnight, but I agree that wouldn't have driven Bibi to do something so crazy. I think it might've been unclear, but part of why I made that post was to illustrate how unlikely it was that he let the attack go through given that polls show what many people would have suspected, that it was bad for his own own political future.

Agreed with all the rest of your post.

Netanyahu was successful in his judicial reform bill, pending SC review

Times of Israel reports

In a monumental, highly controversial decision, the High Court of Justice strikes down legislation passed earlier this year that curtailed judicial oversight of the government, annulling for the first time in Israel’s history an element of one of its quasi-constitutional Basic Laws.

The court split almost down the middle over the highly contentious legislation, which eliminated judicial use of the “reasonableness” standard — the only significant law from the government’s judicial overhaul agenda to have been passed so far. Eight justices vote in favor of striking down the law, while seven vote to uphold it.

Two months after the claim I responded to but thank you for the update on the situation!

The idea that Netanyahu doesn't prioritize his career above all things is as implausible

Is Bibi really in control, does he really have any power?

Everyone here knows gentile conspiracy theories claiming that everything and everyone are controlled by Freemasons, Illuminati and lizard people, who are in turn controlled by (((you know who))).

Let me now enlighten this thread a little bit and present here authentically Jewish Pizzagate tier conspiracy theory well known in Israel.

Netanyahu is controlled by ... his wife Sara.

Video alleges contract between PM, wife gives her veto over Mossad, IDF chiefs

A video making waves on social media in recent days claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara have a legal contract between them that gives her sweeping control over core aspects of Israel’s national affairs. This includes provisions for her to sit-in at top-secret meetings and to sign off on appointments of the heads of the Mossad intelligence agency, Shin Bet domestic security service, and the Israeli military.

According to Arzi, the contract also includes the prime minister promising that any trip with an overnight stay will include his wife.

“She can take part in all the most secret meetings, even though she does not have security clearance. That jumped out at me,” Arzi says in the video, part of an interview in Hebrew with journalist Dan Raviv.

“She authorizes the following appointments, the head of the Mossad, the head of the Shin Bet and the IDF chief of staff. And that is in writing, she has to give the authorization in writing, if not, it is a violation of the contract,” he said, adding that “violation would mean he forfeits all their property to her.”

The alleged contract further makes various stipulations that give Sara major control over the couple’s finances.

Notice that Sara is not looking very Jewish.

Trust the plan.

claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara have a legal contract between them that gives her sweeping control over core aspects of Israel’s national affairs

This is the most jewish concept I've read about in a year. A "contract" between her and her husband for control of isreal?????

Imagine trying to enforce it in court.

Why would he sign such a contract?

And why it would matter?

Men sign disadvantageous contracts with women all the time. It usually involves a ceremony and whatnot.

And what if it is not about holding the power? What if his goal was to deal with hamas once and for all and willing to sacrifice his career for it?

The idea that Netanyahu doesn't prioritize his career above all things is as implausible as the idea that Hamas would establish a just state that accords rights and freedoms to Jews given the chance.

If he knew it was coming the way to consolidate power would have been a thousand Palestinians dead in the attack, a handful of civilians, and a 100 IDF. Looking extremely competent as you crush a massive attack as it happens boost support. Instead he looks incompetent. I guess you would make Hamas think your weak but have everything in place to crush the attack.

The only 4-D chess move for letting the attack happen would be getting the world to accept that Palestine and Israel can not exists together and getting global community to look the other way as you create 2 million refugees and someone like Egypt reluctantly accepting them.

someone like Egypt reluctantly accepting them.

Egypt wont accept them, though. Sane regimes don’t let millions of terrorists in, and Hamas is literally a splinter group from Al-Sisi’s main opposition.

To say nothing of the usual prejudices against Palestinians.

If he knew it was coming the way to consolidate power would have been a thousand Palestinians dead in the attack, a handful of civilians, and a 100 IDF. Looking extremely competent as you crush a massive attack as it happens boost support.

I think most likely you're right.

The reports that Netanyahu[1] knew about the attack and let it happen has even less credibility than the story about 40 beheaded/burned babies yanked from incubators, the ghost of Kiev, Trump pisstapes being sent via DNS packet backchannels to a bank's email server, Sadaam yellowcake, or Bush personally planning 9/11.

It's just speculation on speculation on speculation and imo not even worthy of mentioning without a heavy dose of "yeah this sounds crazy but whatif".

[1]: It's a very interesting meme that people have started referring to him as "Bibi". This seems new to me.

I’ve seen people refer to him as Bibi for years? I thought it was a common nickname?

It is. I first heard it in the 90s I think.

It's easier to spell but has been used in headlines and newspapers for decades. The man has been in and out of power since Clinton after all.

It's a very interesting meme that people have started referring to him as "Bibi". This seems new to me.

I think it's a clout chasing thing. It seemed to start a few years ago as a way for people to imply they know Netanyahu personally (or at least know people who do). Same as referring to Jeff Bezos as "Jeff" or William Shatner as "Bill".

That...can't be it. I think at the least conscious level it's a way to signal that you're someone who keeps up and is well-informed. Just like on February 26, 2022 you could sort normal people from the people who were mainlining /r/worldnews by whether or not they had switched to "Kyiv" yet.

Sudden linguistic shifts like this do annoy me (why do Associated Press style guides get the final say on the English language??) and they do give me big "overnight software update" vibes. Another consequence of the fact that no one reads anything older than one year anymore, so that language is going to start changing faster.

For historical reference Golda Meir (Mapai->Labor) was succeeded by Yitzhak Rabin (Alignment->Labor) but her and her party did retain power though there were less domestic political issues plaguing Labor as a whole then and they did drop in parliament seats compared to before the war.

That’s a helpful comparison, thanks.

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