domain:dualn-back.com
Skibboleth
9m ago
Would a student loan tax credit with identical bottom line implications be more legitimate than direct forgiveness?
aqouta
10m ago
The main problem is just the source of new blood since leaving reddit. I've dropped a couple links to vault on twitter as a bread crumb and can't really know if we've caught anymore. Improving the vault, updating it with more links might help. I think more or less the moderators do an excellent job and I have very little criticism, I could give or take the hlynka ban.
ulyssessword
10m ago
Why is there this special carve out to discriminate against men?
Who cares?
That's a literal question: Which people care about men being discriminated against, how much do they care about it, and what can they do based on those feelings?
Men's Rights activism is a powerless joke, and equal rights activism has died off and been replaced by a dozen individual interest groups. The people that care don't matter, and the people that matter don't care.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
12m ago
Anecdota on Von Neumann I find interesting, pulled from different sites
Equally, von Neumann had no interest in sport and, barring long walks (always in a business suit), he would avoid any form of vigorous physical exercise for the rest of his life. When his second wife, Klari, tried to persuade him to ski, he offered her a divorce. ‘If being married to a woman, no matter who she was, would mean he had to slide around on two pieces of wood on some slick mountainside,’ she explained, ‘he would definitely prefer to live alone and take his daily exercise, as he put it, “by getting in and out of a pleasantly warm bathtub.”
It is interesting that the smartest man who ever lived did not engage in any physical exercise short of walking.
he claimed he had low sales resistance, and so would have his wife come clothes shopping with him
He was not a skilled poker player
Did his genius come at the expense of social awareness? Maybe. I find the idea of zero sum cognition utterly fascinating.
He famously always wore a grey oxford 3 piece suit, including when playing tennis with Stanislaw Ulam, or when riding a donkey down the Grand Canyon
I felt that he was sometimes somewhat peculiar that he would be impressed by government officials or generals and so on. If a big uniform appeared that made more of an impression than it should have. It was odd.
Parties and nightlife held a special appeal for von Neumann. While teaching in Germany, von Neumann had been a denizen of the Cabaret-era Berlin nightlife circuit.”
ulyssessword
21m ago
If an algorithmic system is consistent and has limited inputs, then it doesn't really matter if it's completely blackboxed. You can just rerun the analysis with slightly-changed inputs to find what it decides. Hopefully that results in mostly-smooth results on simple categories, but a illegible AI might be more understandable than a lying human regardless.
urquan
The end desire of the system is Kubernetes for human beings
31m ago
he would probably assume that the Government Service Center was a fortress with a dungeon full of prisoners.
Well, part of it was a psychiatric hospital back in the day.
...Okay, wait, what?
With a romanticised view of mental illness, Rudolph made the building “insane” in the hope that it would sooth those who dwell in it by reflecting the insanity they feel within.
Huh?
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
46m ago
They are not similar. Tax cuts represent income that was already eared, whereas student loan foreverness is more like a gift.
jeroboam
49m ago
I think this is much worse for a few reasons:
-
It was done unilaterally by the President without the authorization of Congress. It may even be unconstitutional.
-
It was done in an election year, shortly before the election
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As opposed to tax cuts, which merely reduce one's obligation to the government, this is a gift. A person could have received this gift even if (in fact, especially if) they never paid any taxes at all
Obviously, vote buying is a spectrum and it's always part of the sausage. But this was an escalation, and the Republicans now need to match in kind.
I was struck by this one when visiting Boston because of the effect it had on me. The picture doesn't do it justice. It really does loom over the vicinity in a menacing way, especially in contrast with the the beautiful colonial buildings.
Like, if a visitor came from the Middle Ages, he would probably assume that the Government Service Center was a fortress with a dungeon full of prisoners.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
58m ago
I kind of like that building. It’s certainly not the worst brutalist design.
jeroboam
1hr ago
Rov_Scam
1hr ago
"Political party affiliation is added to more such laws" is doing a lot of work here. There is not, to my knowledge, any serious push to do this on the Federal level. In states that have prohibitions on political party discrimination and disparate impact (i.e. California), I'm not aware of any attempt to challenge the doctrine.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
1hr ago
Sheinbaum is from the same political party that has been running Mexico - AMLO.
"AMLO" is the nickname of the outgoing president, López Obrador. Reuters says that the party is Morena (which, admittedly, was founded by López Obrador).
Super-majorities in Congress that will be able to pass whatever they want.
Reuters says that Morena's coalition has achieved a supermajority only in the lower house, and is "a few seats short" in the upper house.
jeroboam
1hr ago
Raiding university endowments makes a lot of sense. The academy is already so captured by the left that Republicans wouldn't lose many votes. It would also be tough for the left to oppose. "We're taking 10% from the rich and giving it to the workers."
A tax credit for the working poor who ALSO have dependent children might actually be the secret sauce. If we're going to buy votes, I think that group of people is possibly the most deserving of help.
urquan
The end desire of the system is Kubernetes for human beings
1hr ago
This is kind of off topic, but... what reallly strikes me about that link is that the Department of Education has that great classic old seal with a tree on it that looks just fine, but instead of putting that as their logo on the website, they went with this terrible logo that looks like something you'd create in photoshop in 5 minutes.
doglatine
1hr ago
Honestly would make more sense for them (both politically and fiscally) to “buy” votes through raiding their political opponents. University endowments and cutting welfare are the obvious targets, but it might be interesting to see taxes on childless couples (framed as a general tax increase, but with exemptions for those with at least two kids).
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
1hr ago
so if she does have leftist instincts
Her previous political party was El Partido de la Revolución Democrática ("The Party of the Democratic Revolution"). Latin America continues to mostly think Communism is a great idea, no matter how often it screws things up.
jeroboam
1hr ago
I noticed the crash today also. But if you zoom out, you see the Mexican market trades at roughly the same level it did in November, so it's not really that big of a dip.
Zoom out further, and you'll see that, like most international markets, Mexico has limped along since 2007, trading mostly flat since then.
I trust the Mexican stock market about as much as I do the Chinese, Brazilian, or Colombian markets. Which is to say: not at all. I'll invest, but companies need to SHOW ME THE MONEY in terms of dividends and buybacks. Of course, socialists are always making things tough for companies who wish to reward shareholders. They don't want to see precious dollar reserves leaving the country and will often interfere to force companies to "reinvest" rather than make payments. Both Xi in China and Lula in Brazil have personally intervened in this way recently, tanking share prices.
Like most LatAm countries, Mexico seems set up for immense success if they can only kick the socialism habit which periodically sets them back by decades. With a near supermajority for AMLO's successor, it would appear that Mexico could once again belong to a leftist uniparty. The last one ruled for 71 years. I wouldn't be bullish on their stock market.
sliders1234
1hr ago
Something interesting is happening in Mexico. I will preface by saying this is a fact-finding point of analysis at this time but seems interesting. I have not yet made up an opinion on the situation.
Today Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum. Despite being widely expected Mexico etfs and markets took a huge dive. EWW appears to be one of the more popular etfs and was down 11% today. Milei and Trump each had big day 1 sell-offs but if my memory is correct both after winning elections had calm and relatively unchanged equity indexes by the close of U.S. trading.
Sheinbaum is from the same political party that has been running Mexico - AMLO. The big difference is the election was more of a landslide than expected. Super-majorities in Congress that will be able to pass whatever they want. She is even being called by the U.S. msm as a lifelong leftist. Her grandparents when they left Europe were both Jewish and communists.
On the plus side she was mayor of Mexico City and achieved a 10-15% reduction in murder (I usually think murder data is trustworthy). She does appear to be smart and technocratic but very left. I believe I saw her show support for Palestine and there is talk she will be friendly with Venezuela, Cuba, and Russia.
The other interesting thing to me is a Jewish (secular) women feels very odd as a national candidate to me in Mexico. No Spanish or indigenous roots. And Mexico’s Jewish population is extremely small (though as always there are some big hitters). Which feels very odd to me for a society to elect such an outsider (maybe Obama is close?). Also I guess she’s had some birther style attacks.
I talked to a few Mexican friends. One said he hated her and she was a communists, also said she wasn’t Jewish which surprised me as I thought most people considered Jewish an ethnicity. The other seems more open-minded.
Trump being elected could make negotiations between them tense since they are opposites on the political spectrum.
As far as markets go I want to figure out how she will govern. Mexico does seem to have some tailwinds with reshoring so the discount today looks interesting. The counter is the degree of the election victory means she has a mandate so if she does have leftist instincts I think there is a risks Mexico ends up on an Argentina or Venezuela path for a while. If you feel confident you can underwrite her politics will be more of a technocrat with leftist vibes/rhetoric but largely AMLO continuation then it’s an interesting time to pick up Mexico exposure at a discount.
https://x.com/BrazilBrian/status/1797627767808294933
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/world/americas/claudia-sheinbaum-jewish-mexico-president.html
jeroboam
1hr ago
How will Republicans responds to Biden's student loan giveaway?
Even though the Supreme Court scuppered Biden's plan to forgive student loan debt without congressional approval, he is apparently doing it anyway. So far, it would appear that 4.75 million people have had loans forgiven for a total cost of $167 billion.
Here's a link to a recent Biden administration press release.
I will admit, the devil is in the details. I am not going to comment on the constitutional legality, the many ways to qualify for forgiveness, nor the amount given to high-income earners, which some have claimed is substantial.
But the total cost is staggering. It amounts to over $1000 for every American who pays income tax.
Clearly, this money has electoral implications. The base of people who have large student debts is presumed to be mostly Democratic voters. By giving this group a mean payment of $35,000 each, the Biden administration hopes to increase their enthusiasm to vote. Even the ones who do lean towards Trump might view Biden favorably after getting (almost) enough money to buy a new Tesla Model 3.
Buying votes goes back as far as democracy does. Famously, Julius Caesar was forced to conquer southern Spain after going broke buying votes to become Pontifex Maximus. In recent times, some have argued that farm subsidies amount to vote buying. But, while special interests have always played a large role in American politics, student debt forgiveness is possibly the closest thing to naked vote buying we've seen in our lifetimes.
So... how do the Republicans respond? Whose votes should they purchase with a fig leaf of social justice? I'd propose a group that honestly needs it and creates a lot of value for society: blue collar workers. People who work 30 hours a week or more and make less than $30/hour should get an "earned income credit" of $10,000 a year.
If we're going to just be giving money away, give it to the workers, not to excess elites.
MathWizard
formerly hh26
1hr ago
I think he means that Trump winning is a rebuke of the Democrat's lawfare against him, because then they didn't accomplish their goal.
@ HlynkaCG would sometimes drop in with snarky replies to my posts and it was annoying not being able to return fire in kind. Rhetoric is a part of arguing. Being limited to dialectic is like fighting with one hand behind one's back. His time had long come to face the consequences of his incessant rule-skirting. He had gotten so many exceptions.
One suggestion is to form a tribunal of sorts of 5 or so top Motte users. This group would convene every month to award or remove strikes assigned to users based on conduct for the preceding month. The voters would anonymous and contain comments or feedback about what rules were broken and how to improve. If someone accumulates 5 or so strikes they are banned. Anyone can view how many strikes they have. For example, if someone has 4/5 strikes that would be an indication of a need to improve.
Let's bring back stimulus check discourse.
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