domain:streamable.com
AvocadoPanic
7m ago
worse policy mistakes
Is it a 'mistake', if it's designed to obfuscate and mislead?
That the same bad actors then use their obfuscation for
justifying later (bad) policies on the basis of risk-severity
I have difficulty seeing these as 'mistakes'.
Wasn't their a rhyming obfuscation with the vaccinated? You did not count as vaccinated and dead unless you died > 2 weeks after your vaccination?
Celestial-body-NOS
🟦 'We have a golden rule: "Mind your own damn business!"'🍞🌹
8m ago
My white, Evangelical, smoking and drinking are sins circle faired very well.
I think this part should be hyphenated, as otherwise it becomes a garden-path sentence.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
24m ago
What we needed were expedited Challenge Trials. The first thing I thought was ridiculous is how the virus was dangerous enough that it made sense to shut down everything, but not so important that we could do challenge trials for treatments on volunteers. I know many people who would have willingly been exposed to the virus to test out a treatment/vaccine.
A challenge trail would have shut down a lot of this vaccine effectiveness debate. Isolate a group of 400 people, vaccinate half, expose half of each group to the virus, and record the data. Hard to argue with that, fast results, save a million lives.
AvocadoPanic
26m ago
Or name them after monkeys because of homosexuals?
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
26m ago
On the other hand, this was probably the first time in history when technological development (mainly the things enabling WFH including studies from home, also tracking etc) would have even allowed movement restrictions like the ones implemented from time to time, which is probably one of the reasons why it was only suggested and then implemented now.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
29m ago
Again, I'm not sure why people are insisting on this. Is there something particular gained, apart from - again - the geopolitical interest?
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
30m ago
This was the reasoning behind vaccine passports. If you were vaccinated, then you wouldn't be passing on the virus. I lived in a place that required vaccine passports to go entertainment venues. Grocery stores technically didn't require a vaccine passport but if you wanted to take your mask off you needed to show proof of vaccination first. The rationale behind these things is that the vaccinated can't (or are significantly less likely) to be infected and infect others.
These were public policies made by public health professionals. The public health professionals thought the vaccines reduced infection rates and that's why they set the policy the way they did.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
53m ago
Most of those things would have been near state of the art 60 years ago, with object-oriented programming "bleeding edge". There's a lot of stuff which comes after, though. Bloom filters are 1970, suffix trees 1973, suffix arrays 1987 or 1990, modern compression late 1970s, modern crypto late 1970s (in the latter two cases, with a LOT of development afterwards) etc.
Wikipedia has an incomplete list.
Mushguffler
56m ago
Remember when we all pretended it was a rule not to name diseases after places? That was fun.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1hr ago
May BJJ Notes
— My facial stitches pretty much healed up, and as soon as I got them out I was back on the mats. There’s the start of a nice little traditional German dueling scar on my lip, but luckily it happened after I got married, so I have very little need to look pretty anymore. I am, if I”m honest, deeply embarrassed by all the outpourings of affection from the other members at the gym. I considered the whole matter vaguely shameful and stupid; everyone is way too nice about it, going out of their way to ask me how I’m doing when I come in to the gym. I guess the pictures coach posted to the gym group chat when I got injured were pretty amusing, me smiling with my face slashed open. The scar seems to be healing up fine, my only real concern is making sure it doesn’t reopen or become a weak point that could reopen easily in the future, which I think is a thing but I’m really not entirely sure? I was too nervous to shave while the stitches were in or freshly out, so I grew the worst beard of my life while all this was going on. The most frustrating advice is that I should keep it out of the sun, just as the weather is getting to the point where I want to be hiking and swimming and golfing. We'll see how I do with that.
— My buddy talked me into signing up together for private classes with the head coach, once a week in the mornings. The classes themselves are good fun, but the biggest revelation so far is that I understand the entire business model of the gym much better than I did before. Up until now I’d really wondered at how they offered such a good deal: I pay a little under $150/mo for unlimited classes, which are offered for adults 15 times per week with about a dozen instructors, and range in attendance from just me and maybe another guy to 30+ people. It seemed to me like a great deal for me personally, but a tough business to run even with the cash cow of kids classes and at any gym constant supply of people who sign up and never attend. At the same time, while BJJ pedagogy is a whole fucking category of debate I don’t want to get too far into, while I was pretty satisfied with my rate of improvement I did notice that the classes weren’t necessarily structured optimally for learning. Then I signed up for the 2:1 private classes, which on a per-hour basis run $60, and a lot of things made sense. Turns out they book a ton of private classes, with a lot of people who I didn’t realize were booking private classes; where initially I thought of the standard classes as the main thing, and the privates as an incredibly fancy add-on which maybe a dozen people who were really rich or really serious might book, turns out the public classes are the budget tier and the private classes are premium DLC that probably 30-40% of the students are booking. Cynically, it almost feels like the gaps in the pedagogy are intentional to sell privates, by working on a semi-random assortment of moves in the public classes and then gating those fundamentals behind additional cost you sell your product. Given, I don’t begrudge them that, the public classes are a real deal, part of the reason I was talked into signing up for the privates was because I didn’t mind putting some money in the coaches’ pockets it’s still not an easy business. And while now I’m happy to pay extra and show up at 6am for a private class where we just drill precise details on the armbar, the public class format was way more engaging for me early on because I got to jump right into learning a move and rolling with it, even if as a result I only half learned the move. Swings and roundabouts.
— The biggest thing I think I need to work on to improve at this point is mindset. Pretty predictable if you knew me, I lack some level of necessary killer instinct. Hell, it’s a problem I have as a mechanic, that pretty often I’m unwilling to be hard enough on the machine to get a bolt loose or a clip out for fear of breaking something. I tend to categorize too many of my partners at the gym as either way better than me, so that I’m trying not to lose too badly and unwilling to be rough with them when they’re being kind to me by going easy; or as way worse or weaker/smaller than me and hence I don’t want to go too rough and be a dick to them. Part of this is a sense that I’m a big strong guy, even in the context of the gym, and I don’t want to have the rep as a big dumb moose that spazzes out and hurts people. But sometimes I get the distinct sense I’m stuck at 75% effort, and that if I could just get out of second gear I could start beating some of the guys I think are better than me. I’m thinking maybe the solution is hitting up more open mats at other gyms, so I’m a bit more shuffled. I’m reasonably pleased with my progress in defense, guard retention, and lately I’ve been having some luck with sweeps and guard passes. But I can’t seem to get finishes, and at times I feel like I’m just stalling in the round maintaining mount or side control without getting the finish.
— In the weight room, my Philadelphia Eagles posted a hype video of the guys doing back squats in the offseason. Among monsters like Jordan Mailata and Saquon hitting 6 plates, Grant Calcaterra came in and hit 405. My first reaction was: poor Grant, why did they have to do him like that? He seems so weak compared to the rest of the players! My second thought was: that’s not far past my PR in back squat, and really close to my implied PR from reps, with a little effort I could say I back squatted as much as an Eagles Tight End! So I’m trying to get back under the bar for a couple months after this weekend, when…
— Murph is coming, and I’m gonna fucking die. I’m doing it with the vest, because it doesn’t really slow me down all that much, just makes everything suck more. Will report back if I’m alive.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
1hr ago
Is there an ongoing genocide against white South Africans? Reuters says there isn't.
Among the claims contradicted by the evidence:
(1) There is a genocide of white farmers in South Africa.
Supporters of the theory point to murders of white farmers in remote rural parts of the country as proof of a politically orchestrated campaign of ethnic cleansing, rather than ordinary violent crime.
They accuse the Black-majority led government of being complicit in the farm murders, either by encouraging them or at least turning a blind eye. The government strongly denies this.
South Africa has one of the world's highest murder rates, with an average of 72 a day, in a country of 60 million people. Most victims are Black.
The high court in Western Cape province ruled that claims of white genocide were "clearly imagined and not real" in a case earlier this year, forbidding a donation to a white supremacist group on those grounds.
(2) The government is expropriating land from white farmers without compensation, including through violent land seizures, in order to distribute it to Black South Africans.
The government has a policy of attempting to redress inequalities in land ownership that are a legacy of apartheid and colonialism. But no land has been expropriated, and the government has instead tried to encourage white farmers to sell their land willingly.
(3) The "Kill the Boer (farmer)" song sung by some Black South Africans is an explicit call to murder Afrikaners, the ethnic group of European descent who make up the majority of whites and who own most of the farmland.
Three South African courts have ruled against attempts to have it designated as hate speech, on the basis that it is a historical liberation chant, not a literal incitement to violence.
In a statement following the meeting between Trump and Ramaphosa, the EFF said it was "a song that expresses the desire to destroy the system of white minority control over the resources of South Africa" and that it is "a part of African Heritage".
(4) Trump played a video clip that showed a long line of white crosses on the side of a highway, which Trump said were "burial sites" for white farmers.
The video was made in September 2020 during a protest against farm murders after two people were killed on their farm a week earlier. The crosses did not mark actual graves. An organizer told South Africa's public broadcaster, SABC, at the time that the wooden crosses represented farmers who had been killed over the years.
(5) The opening scene of the White House video shows Malema in South Africa's parliament announcing: "People are going to occupy land. We require no permission from ... the president." It also shows another clip of him pledging to expropriate land.
Some land has been illegally occupied over the years, mostly by millions of desperate squatters with nowhere else to go, although some land seizures are politically motivated. The land is usually unused and there is no evidence the EFF orchestrated any land invasions.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1hr ago
It is a lot like the blind-men-elephant analogy. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing though. We can see how that goodness interacts with us. Our own human goodness has its source in His goodness as well. Since our goodness has its source in His goodness, we can say that it really is something like a goodness we recognize. It's not some kind of alien shrimp colors. But it is vastly beyond our morality as well, encompassing it and exceeding it.
The average normie Christian hugs the elephant's leg and thinks it's just like us. Look, it has a torso to hug! And that's wrong, but not necessarily dangerous. The average normie 8th grader thinks that the Earth goes around the sun in a circle and that's wrong but not necessarily dangerous or impactful to how they go about their daily life.
But those who have reasoned more about it or have further experience with the Goodness of God start to see other parts of the elephant. The goodness of God inspires such sentiments as:
One evening, not knowing in what words to tell Our Lord how much I loved him, and how much I wished that He was served and honoured everywhere, I thought sorrowfully that from the depths of hell there does not go up to Him one single act of love. Then, from my inmost heart, I cried out that I would gladly be cast into that place of torment and blasphemy so that He might be eternally loved even there! (Story of a Soul, St. Therese of Lisieux.)
or
St. Catherine of Sienna had a vision where God told her, "I am He who is; and you are she who is not."
Or the desire many Catholics have to suffer, their only desired relief being the presence of mind to offer that suffering to God as a sacrifice for the salvation of souls.
The goodness of God starts to look kind of distorted and weird the deeper a soul dwells in it. A human can reach beyond just a leg and we start to see something immense, kinda scary, but still recognizable and connected to the leg. We have every reason to believe it goes on further and further, beyond our comprehension but still Goodness because it's all part of the same animal, connected together.
Tree
1hr ago
Wrong, they always had the power. The best part of the trump wrecking ball program is that it will put to rest the antidemocratic lie, widely believed on both sides, and the source of many problems, that the average citizen has no power and can be safely ignored by the elites.
It might even be worth it to smash some valuable things so people can re-learn that lesson. But these billions in endowments are not even valuable. Well, you know what I mean. It’s actually triple-good to seize those (teach a lesson, eliminate illegitimate unproductive source of polarization, fund the state).
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
1hr ago
The actual fix for US 130 was the construction of I-295. What remains is only residual problems.
By no means has US 130 been fixed. The buildings are so close to the traveled way, and the lanes are so narrow (because, many decades ago, it was converted from two lanes with a shoulder in each direction to three lanes with no shoulder in each direction), that those buildings regularly get hit by errant cars. And there are so many driveways, and the state govt.'s right of way is so narrow (especially after space has been reserved for sidewalk), that even putting up guide rail to prevent these crashes is impossible.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
Yeah, legislative representatives should be immune to legal punishment for their speech. Imagine if a legislator gave a fiery speech and then was sued for slander or censured and stripped of voting power. That's not a well functioning government.
Note "in any other place" (emphasis mine). It is well established that the US House and US Senate can indeed censure members for their speech in their respective houses. Or for any other reason.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
The constitutional problem is effectively disenfranchising a representative's constituents, by preventing the representative from voting.
And this is honestly BS, mostly brought up to protect the left (e.g. to allow Frank Lautenberg to replace Robert Toricelli in NJ after the deadline for changing ballots, or to allow some of the COVID-related election rule violations in 2020). It is fair for the Supreme Court to apply the same standards when they benefit the right, but I don't think this principle is somehow so paramount in the Constitution as to allow violation of every other principle including separation of powers and separate sovereignty.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
The District Court seems correct here; this is not a matter for the Federal courts to decide, being a purely internal act of the state legislature with respect to one of its members. A consequence of the states being sovereigns in their own right.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
The actual fix for US 130 was the construction of I-295. What remains is only residual problems. As US 130, it was intended for long-distance travel; all mainline US system roads were.
(Fun fact: at one point late in the construction of I-295, it was possible to take US 130 North to I-295 North and end up back where you started; getting caught in such a loop gave me serious hatred for US 130)
I've always maintained that responsibility is shared between the superpowers, that's a huge part of why nobody's prepared to accept what happened or do anything. The Chinese have eagerly been saying 'oh it was made in America' and vis versa. But neither is prepared to do anything about it, they want to pretend it never happened lest the enormity of the disaster waft back onto them. Propaganda is all they're willing to do.
This applies especially to the community of experts (that Scott is a member and cheerleader for), full realization would be shattering to their authority. This disaster was made by the experts, whether in China or America or both, it was them.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
1hr ago
I thought the general consensus was that it was a lab leak, even if it can't be proved due to much of the evidence mysteriously disappearing (which is itself a certain signal). This seems to be the position of the US intelligence apparatus. Frankly it should've been obvious back in March of 2020 given the proximity of the lab, the nature of its COVID research and all the anomalous activity going on there.
Anyway, I also agree with your second point.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
Why don’t universities simply put out fake studies with made up data that flatters the current administration’s priorities in order to get money?
Assumes facts not in evidence. I think you'll find they do exactly that.
no university has a department of data fabrication
Well sure, if you call it that it would give away the game.
WandererintheWilderness
1hr ago
From the linked post:
Suppose we accept the judges’ decision that COVID arose via zoonosis. Does that mean lab leak was a “conspiracy theory” and we should be embarrassed to have ever believed it? The term “conspiracy theory” is awkward here because there were definitely at least two conspiracies - one by China to hide the evidence, one by western virologists to convince everyone that lab leak was stupid and they shouldn’t think about it. Saar cited some leaked internal conversations among expert virologists. Back in the earliest stage of the pandemic, they said to each other that it seemed like COVID could have come from a lab leak - their specific odds were 50-50 - but that they should try to obfuscate this to prevent people from turning against them and their labs. So the best we can say here is that maybe the conspiracies got lucky on their 50-50 bet, and the thing they were trying to cover up wasn’t even true.
I don't know what more you'd want. He knows perfectly well that disingenuous actors in the China and in the west conspired to cover up anything that could have pointed at a lab leak. Given the nature of the leaked evidence, however, he thinks the bad actors did this in case it turned out to be a lab leak, without themselves being certain.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
1hr ago
Why does the american right tolerate these endowments?
Because they didn't have the power to take them away. That is starting to change, and Trump has already credibly threatened both Harvard and Columbia.
There's not enough there to make a dent in US tax revenue, though; US tax revenue is almost unfathomably large, dwarfed only by US spending.
Deaths from COVID and deaths with COVID were both counted and reported in different places.
The insistence on this conflation is probably one of the worse policy mistakes of national health authorities during the COVID years, not least because of (a) how upstream it was for justifying later (bad) policies on the basis of risk-severity, and (b) how obvious the implications of this could be to anyone already inclined towards skepticism with even a passing knowledge of statistical smuggling.
There are absolutely valid reasons to be very concerned about a potentially highly mutable pathogen in a population. You can absolutely believe a quarantine model could be necessary to protect at-risk people. But if you want to retain public trust and deference from a high-skepticism, low-trust, and literate population, you cannot smuggle in nakedly bad data to pad your numbers for public, population-level urgency. Too many discontents will read the data categories, recognize the issue, and spread the awareness. And too many people would be able to find examples of systemic incentives to miscount- even at the level of how some medical institutions could get more money for classifying patients as with-COVID. Which validates concerns / lack of trust in medical objectivity.
This was a (predictable) aspect of the pandemic response, as was the circle-the-wagons response and the partisan appeals to trusting the science. Except it was not science when it was being pushed, but Science. And those who insisted on championing The Science, or that people were bad for not believing policy proscribed on the basis of The Science, or even just that others should defer to those with The Science despite any misdirection from the authorities with The Science, have no basis for their own [current statistic] to be believed.
And a consequence of the inflated numbers is that they lost claim for establishing a shared understanding of what a 'true' number of deaths could be. 1.2 millions Americans died of Covid? Why should anyone believe that? How many 'died with' are smuggled into that? Does the argument from excess deaths also give credit for 'deaths saved' in later years from the people who died earlier but not later, or is it a one-way rachet to imply an above-average death rate in the area of scrutiny but not a lower-than-average death rate afterwards?
And why should anyone be concerned, without a baseline of comparison to establish relative rates? Is 1.2 million 1%, 5%, 100% more than expected? Especially if you use 'during Covid' as a span of time. Okay- what was that span of time, and what would be the 'normal' number of deaths during it? And how are you separating [deaths from COVID] from [deaths from COVID policy]?
Without such a baseline, of distinction between the consequences of bad policy and a bad disease, the main reason to defer to someone's statistic is trust. But trust is precisely what is lost when you conflate [with] and [from].
I am not a libertarian, and I am certainly no ancap. I have some very strong classical liberal leanings, but classical liberalism is not the summum bonum.
The family, as a classic example of natural duty, is one of the great weaknesses of a thoroughgoing, non-agression-principle–centered libertarianism. Libertarianism in its heart of hearts wants to divide the world into free agents and property; children are neither. They are both human and inescapably dependent. It is baked into the order of creation, and no one can will it away. They are not the only example, but they are by far the clearest.
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