domain:astralcodexten.substack.com
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
Rubio, Abbott, and Youngkin can all foreseeably unite the three factions with the always-second-string religious right. Desantis is also a strong maybe on that front.
I don’t see Vance doing this, I don’t see Cruz, I don’t see Hawley.
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
18hr ago
There are some talks going around how if we look at the geographical breakdown, it's a separation between transplants (Manhattan LES, Brooklyn Williamsburg, etc.) vs natives (Bronx, deep Brooklyn, deep Queens). I still want to wait for the full numbers though before more speculation.
When those transplants eventually flee the consequences of their votes, what color and letter should they be forced to wear to let everyone know that they are dangerous idiots?
I wonder if Zohran would be open to, say, a 50% wealth tax on people who leave NYC?
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
Texas since ~2000 has had a de facto three party dynamic with moderates, conservatives, and democrats, and the moderates consistently the kingmakers in legislative coalitions while whichever wins the Republican primary holds unitary roles. That’s probably a better example of a stable two party system where one party always loses.
The typical case is when someone neither particularly hates or helps the poor. But the missing mood test looks at how things are framed and at superficial elements. So if he thinks the dole is good for the poor, he doesn't need to prove himself, because the belief itself already says that he "wants to help the poor". But if he thinks the dole is bad for the poor, he faces an uphill battle. The problems with this are obvious.
This also leads to moral busybodies. How exactly do you know that someone hates the poor privately? Well, if he's a friend or relative, maybe you know him. But if he's a politician or someone else you don't know personally, this is an incentive to dig up ten year old Twitter posts out of context to "prove" that he's cruel so you can dismiss his beliefs.
And then there's the situation where someone who thinks some policy harms themselves always fails the missing mood test. After all, they aren't showing concern for the other people who are helped by the things that harm themselves. (And "I think my harm is more important than someone's benefit" is selfish, so it doesn't count as showing concern even if you acknowledge that someone benefits.)
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
18hr ago
Bezos' Addendum to Goodhart's Law: If your anecdotal evidence flies in the face of your data, you are probably measuring the data wrong.
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
This idea is not very aristocratic, it’s thoroughly rooted in middle class democracy. Even in the Middle Ages towns were governed by property holder suffrage electing officials and defended by militias of property holders. The aristocrats were for the countryside.
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
The Mandate of Heaven is just important non-state people(Elon musk, Cardinal Dolan, Harold Daggett) going out of their way to praise the legitimacy of the government.
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
Ok, but supermarkets are not dodging rent seeking from farm suppliers- thats the wrong step in the chain. My guess is there’s a bunch of rent seeking in the processing/middleman stage too. And further I’d assume the bulk of the rent seeking in the supermarket side is mostly contractors that the supermarket cant easily replace.
gattsuru
18hr ago
One take is that Mamdani's able to massage a lot of traditionally idpol issues as anti-Trumpist or under legalisms, and thus been able to avoid explicit proposals by having the whole thrust of his lunchbucket politics also imply them.
((eg, "affordable housing" doesn't mean housing people can afford; it means a ton of Section 8.))
Another, more cynical one, is Darwin's old "it was never about being gay". Idpol doesn't care, specifically, about gay rights, or African-Americans, or Hispanics, or even about winning their votes. It cares about the cause of the day, with no more honest motivation than it being the cause of the day. And Mamdani's tongue-bathing Hamas anti-Zionism is the cause of the day among the upper-class demographics he needed to win the primary.
There's some silver lining on that cloud, in the sense that the Idpol cause of the day can swap out on a minute's notice. But it's not gonna.
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
The real question comes down to if Cuomo runs against Adams as an independent- I think Adams has a decent chance if he does not.
Do Democrats want more extreme left candidates? Are socialists ready for the big time? Was this Cuomo's unique weaknesses?
In New York City? Probably. In broader America? No.
hydroacetylene
18hr ago
Mark Robinson is the kind of candidate who could throw a safe election, yes.
ChickenOverlord
18hr ago
Ideally the democrats can have their version of joe rogan.
I realize your whole post was sarcastic, but I'm reminded of something someone said here a week or two ago: Joe Rogan was the Democrats' Joe Rogan, they drove him and people like him away.
That said I'd love to see the dems put major support behind Hasan, the backfire would be hilarious and it would probably give Roach King Asmongold a year's worth of content from that alone.
Honestly I'm surprised the left hasn't tried to figure out Asmongold 's popularity with young men. He's a midwit at best on his good days, but his takes come across to audiences as "common sense" (regardless of if they actually are). He just has a disarming way of talking and presenting himself, and I think that's something shrieking feminist harpies are constitutionally incapable of.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
19hr ago
Fixing or at least freezing the decline of the economy for young men without advanced education is the “stop digging” part by at least making the economic landscape not maximally hostile to family formation.
Do the Republicans have a credible plan for that? I haven't seen one. (No, tariffs aren't going to do that)
If you’re able to get housing costs to stop rising or even fall, do the same with the asset bubble
The good news is housing costs are set to turn around for demographic reasons. The Silents and older boomers are already dying.
and put upward pressure on the lowest quintile or two of wages by creating a tight labor market
Creating a tight labor market drives up inflation and erases the gains.
TitaniumButterfly
19hr ago
That doesn't follow whatsoever. It presupposes that we're always capable of evaluating deep consequences, which is plainly not the case. It also presupposes a ton of wisdom on the part of the person being persuaded.
Suppose the damage only becomes clear generations later? I'm thinking here of the sexual revolution e.g.
Inability to convince someone that an act is damaging has no bearing on whether it is.
Tiber727
19hr ago
But instead, you seem to want some specific predictions of specific mechanisms that are headline-style events.
Headline-style events are probably the most effective way to shift public consensus, and were in the slavery example we keep going back to, but not a requirement. In the case of:
It just so happens to be that we don't see a world where the lack of slavery is causing all sorts of real world problems for individuals and societies.
Society doesn't seem to be paying attention to the claimed harms, and/or aren't attributing the problems in society to single parenthood. At least not to any statistically relevant degree. What would make them start now? That's why I mentioned "A point at which society realizes the status quo is unsustainable and agrees to a specific fix?"
FC's argument is actually a good example of what I was asking for, just missing which politician or group would have the interest and influence to push for something like surgeon general's warnings on porn. If Trump pushed for it he'd have a decent shot of passing legislation, but he doesn't strike me as interested in the least. And there seems to be a huge popularity gap between Trump and, well, just about anyone in the Republican Party.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
19hr ago
Yes - porn is a cross-cutting issue. The anti-porn faction consists of Blue sex-negative feminists and Red religious conservatives. The pro-porn faction consists of Red libertarians and Blue sex-positive feminists (and the pornographers). Both sex-negative and sex-positive feminists can get published in so-called peer-reviewed journalists, although the sex-positive feminists are currently winning the intra-left political battle.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
19hr ago
Perceived crime rates change much faster than actual crime rates.
pusher_robot
PLEASE GO STAND BY THE STAIRS
19hr ago
Then who makes money from the food industry.
When margins are low but volume is high you can still make good money. But in a commodity market, economic forces will generally push average profit margin to $0, so it's not surprising that margins are usually low and sometimes negative.
MaximumCuddles
The world-spirit texting on the toilet
19hr ago
Where are you getting this? I’ve seen zero conservatives squarely blaming men for not getting married.
Low employment rate by itself doesn’t actually achieve much in terms of upward economic mobility for working class young men, which I do believe has a serious effect on family formation.
For that you need to end the wage stagnation / decline as it relates to the biggest expenses for young people dating, forming relationships and attempting to start a family; housing costs.
jkf
19hr ago
Not sure how sarcastic you are being, but considering that the last iteration of this was the fat beardy guy who claims to eat carburetors for breakfast, I'm not sure "democrat Joe Rogan" will be something they can pull off this cycle...
MaximumCuddles
The world-spirit texting on the toilet
19hr ago
Agreed, although the old adage comes to mind; “When you’re in a hole, the first thing you need to do is stop digging.”
Fixing or at least freezing the decline of the economy for young men without advanced education is the “stop digging” part by at least making the economic landscape not maximally hostile to family formation.
If you’re able to get housing costs to stop rising or even fall, do the same with the asset bubble, and put upward pressure on the lowest quintile or two of wages by creating a tight labor market, and you’re in for a good start.
Deportations, crackdowns on illegal immigration, a robust industrial policy, Reindustrialization, tariffs on China, checking the power of the academy, renegotiating trade deals, all this gestures in the direction of not celebrating open hostility to young working class men.
I live in a deep blue state and I can tell you personally that the accumulated effects of standard deep blue policy preferences on my life has decreased the amount of children I will have had in my life by at least one. And I’m one of the lucky ones; intelligent, healthy, strong, no criminal record, no significant addictions, came from an intact family.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
19hr ago
Good rule of thumb is that whenever you look in any complex system in the USA of lately usually you have shitload of rent seeking and not capitalism.
Why should these be opposed to each other?
Let me then ask you straightforwardly: do you object to being characterised as anti-semitic? Do you disagree with the statement "SecureSignals hates Jews"?
I don't accept your definition of "anti-semitism". "Anti-semitic" is an emotionally-loaded slur intended to denounce and pathologize any criticism of Jewish identity, religion, or culture whether it's rational or irrational, true or false.
So when Gentiles, like me, engage in radical criticism of Jewish behavior and identity that's "anti-Semitic," which makes the criticism intrinsically irrational according to the popular understanding. But there's no similar term for when Jews in Academia or Hollywood engage in radical criticism of Gentile racial identity, culture, and religion.
For example, my criticism of the very broad pattern of behavior of Jews in academia and popular culture engaging in criticism of White identity while also strongly denouncing any criticism of Jewish identity is a rational and true argument. This pattern of behavior is seen across the political spectrum, from secular Communists like Ignatiev, to Conservative religious Jews like Ben Shaprio, to politically heterodox/rationalist-adjacent like @2rafa. They all oppose White identitarianism and support Jewish identitarianism, meaning this pattern of behavior cannot be reduced to communist vs capitalist, liberal vs postmodern, secular vs religious, because this pattern of behavior dominates the entire spectrum of those other categories.
Conservative talk show host Mark Levin, who has been cartoonishly pro-war on the Iran question and extremely vitriolic towards everyone opposed to war with Iran, accused a White man on twitter of having antisemitism in his family's DNA. What's the word for that? If I accused Levin of having subversion in his family's DNA (someone in the Twitter replies did that), that would be "anti-semitic."
Anti-Semitism can be rational or irrational, true or false. All it requires is engaging in criticism of Jewish behavior, culture, and identity, and there's no word for when Jews do the same to Gentile race, religion, or culture. And I do those things, so I accept the label, although I don't accept that label denotes irrationality- that's just a vain attempt to pathologize rational criticism as being crazy-talk. What people call "anti-Semitism" is a rational response to this behavior of Jews in American politics and culture spending decades undermining white racial identity and political interests while strongly promoting Jewish identity and political interests, and especially the geopolitical interests of the state of Israel. Look at this clip of Greenblatt from the ADL:
What I'm focused on is how the fringes like the woke right, the TuckerCarlson, Steve Bannon... have been fermenting antisemitism. Blaming this war on the Jews, on the Zionist, on the Neo-cons.
You really don't think there's a "there" there?
I also don't accept "you hate the Jews" that's just a proto-woke slur also intended to intrinsically attach irrationality to a critical perspective of Jewish behavior and identity. I don't hate Jews, I don't remember who said something along the lines of "when Jews are great they're amazing and when they're bad they're really terrible." That's been my own experience with Jews personally, and I do have an adversarial-level respect for what I see myself as opposing. I see them as political and cultural opposition in how they behave politically and culturally, it's not an irrational hatred although this statement is not going to stop you or anyone else from accusing me of that. Which is why I don't respond to it, those accusations very conveniently derail from the arguments I'm making (by design), so if you just get bogged down in trying to convince everyone you aren't a neo-Nazi or you don't want to kill all the Jews you are just operating within the same consensus that I reject.
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
19hr ago
Race and IQ is far more suppressed than anti-porn, and yet the studies keep getting published.
Maybe the anti-porn side can't find it because it isn't there.
"100%" is doing a lot of work there. I see a lot of "Women often suck, but you can only work on yourself, so fix that first", and it seems like it's resonating fairly well. There's a reason Peterson blew up with "Clean your room". "Get good" is a message young men are primed to be ready for.
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