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The issue is that most jobs don't require excellence or speed, they require not screwing up. A driver can be the fastest, cheapest most reliable driver for years but if the driver causes one major accident the driver is an awful driver. There are plenty of bumbling lawyers who keep their job. If a lawyer is 10x productive, writes beautiful contracts and solves seemingly insolvable disputes for years, it counts for nothing if they do something once that will get them disbarred.

What matters isn't the median speed or accuracy of performed tasks, it is the severity of the three standard deviation worst screw ups that count. I really don't see the one in five thousand worst decisions by an AI not being worse than the one in five thousand decisions made by a human professional. Until then AI will be limited in a professional environment.

It will remain super useful for search, making funny videos, helping people fix things etc.

I meant the bit about member's clubs at the bottom of the Athenaeum wiki page. All the big famous ones are listed there (and this list is reproduced on other London member's club pages). The list you've linked to is alphabetical (hence why Annabel's is second) and a lot more comprehensive and lists even small tiny clubs.

When I taught at a charter school, a WhatsApp chat group was the official means of group communication, and I had to use the Microsoft Authenticator app to log into Gradebook, which cause innumerable problems. I have seen a couple of restaurants that don't have physical menus, just a QR code that you are expected to scan to order. At my hotel, all the VIZIO TVs demand that you make an account or download the app before they let you watch so much as a single channel.

It's extremely annoying.

Not yet.

Please don't.* The profit incentive to fall into a familiar but safe/profitable rut is the deathnell for open-minded exposition.

If you change your mind on any impression and make a concession of a mistake, mis-step, or overreach as a private poster, at worst people don't lean to you as a co-belligerent but at best other bystanders give you more credence. If you change your mind and make an equivalent concession as a for-profit poster, at best you maintain your current leadership and at worst you lose the money of the people who were paying you for being an ideological comfort food / co-belligerent in the first place.

The behavioral incentive of 'money' over 'internet respect' and is powerful, proven, and prone to memery.

*Exception being if this would actually let you spend more time with your family, friends, and performing more charity for your community of friends and partisan enemies alike.

it is a promise of war against domestic political opponents who are broadly popular in Chicago

No it's not, unless we're going for selective literalism. If you really believe that, I'll happily offer you a bet on whether military force will be deployed against local Chicago politicians, the same way I offered you one about whether Trump will run for a third term.

There is free movement within borders. Open borders for one part of the country means open borders for all.

The fact that doing X (which is morally unproblematic of itself) makes it easier to do Y (which would be immoral) doesn't change the moral character of doing X-but-not-Y. As a matter of practical calculation, it might change the wisdom of banning X. Law and politics, not morals.

In the case of immigration, where X is migrating to a place where you are welcome, and Y is migrating to a different place in the same country where you are not welcome, there are good practical reasons for granting permission at the level of the sovereign state. But you absolutely can run a regime where legal immigrants can travel freely within a wider freedom-of-movement area while only enjoying the right to reside and work in the state that granted their visa - this is how Schengen visas work in the EU.

The section of the speech I was thinking about was (transcript - at 40:51)

Washington D.C. went from our most unsafe city to just about our safest city in a period of a month. We had it under control in 12 days, but give us another 15 or 16 days, it was -- it's perfect. And people other than politicians that look bad, they think. You know, the Democrats run most of the cities that are in bad shape. We have many cities in great shape too, by the way. I want you to know that. But it seems that the ones that are run by the radical left Democrats, what they've done to San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, they're very unsafe places and we're going to straighten them out one by one. And this is going to be a major part for some of the people in this room. That's a war too. It's a war from within. Controlling the physical territory of our border is essential to national security. We can't let these people in. You know, we had no people enter in the last four months, zero. Even I can't believe that.

Clear statement that Trump wants to send troops to Chicago, in a warlike posture. And the enemy is "radical left Democrats" in a context which suggests that the term includes the elected governments of Illinois and Chicago and the voters who elected them. Even if it isn't a promise of war against Chicago as a whole, it is a promise of war against domestic political opponents who are broadly popular in Chicago. Given the segue to controlling the border, I think you can argue that Trump considers the war on domestic political opponents to be secondary to the war on illegal immigrants you mention - this is consistent with administration behaviour to date. But that just gives him a comprehensible motive - it doesn't change what he is doing.

“All right," said Susan. "I'm not stupid. You're saying humans need... fantasies to make life bearable."

REALLY? AS IF IT WAS SOME KIND OF PINK PILL? NO. HUMANS NEED FANTASY TO BE HUMAN. TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE FALLING ANGEL MEETS THE RISING APE.

"Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—"

YES. AS PRACTICE. YOU HAVE TO START OUT LEARNING TO BELIEVE THE LITTLE LIES.

"So we can believe the big ones?"

YES. JUSTICE. MERCY. DUTY. THAT SORT OF THING.

"They're not the same at all!"

YOU THINK SO? THEN TAKE THE UNIVERSE AND GRIND IT DOWN TO THE FINEST POWDER AND SIEVE IT THROUGH THE FINEST SIEVE AND THEN SHOW ME ONE ATOM OF JUSTICE, ONE MOLECULE OF MERCY. AND YET—

Death waved a hand.

AND YET YOU ACT AS IF THERE IS SOME IDEAL ORDER IN THE WORLD, AS IF THERE IS SOME...SOME RIGHTNESS IN THE UNIVERSE BY WHICH IT MAY BE JUDGED.

"Yes, but people have got to believe that, or what's the point—"

MY POINT EXACTLY.

― Terry Pratchett, Hogfather

Arbitrary and capricious enforcement of paperwork offenses (and illegal immigration is a paperwork offence) is an injustice, though a minor one in the grand scheme of things and I certainly wouldn't call it an outrage. I think tolerating well-behaved illegal immigrants for decades and then rounding them up for deportation counts as arbitrary and capricious enforcement, although I understand why the people voting for right-populist parties don't*. It definitely isn't shocking given that almost every 1st-world government - especially the ones that don't actually believe in immigration enforcement - now engages in occasional bouts of arbitrary and capricious immigration enforcement as a form of reality-TV prolefeed.

As a separate issue, I think deporting well-behaved established members of communities harms those communities. If your neighbours like you, then the Tokyo government is hurting them by deporting you, and they are entitled to treat a government that does so as hostile, just as Chicago is treating ICE as hostile.

The median voter seems remarkably sane about immigration - people want system of managed legal immigration operated in the national interest, with criminals, scroungers, and radical Islamists deported asap and well-behaved productive immigrants on a 5-10 year path to citizenship. The "Why can't we have an Australian/Canadian points system?" discourse. There are multiple reasons why this does not happen in the UK or US, and the most annoying one is that the whole debate is poisoned by the completely broken humanitarian immigration system. It doesn't help that two-party systems in the social media age shut out the median voter, such that the public debate is between leftists who favour de facto open borders through a trivially abusable humanitarian system and rightists who want a near-zero immigration system that would have deported Elon Musk and Jensen Huang's parents.

* If you think that the 30 years of broadly-tolerated illegal working was a conspiracy by the Dems, the GOPe, and their corporate supporters against the American people, then the American people (and the Trump administration as their agent) aren't acting arbitrarily and capriciously - they are doing what they always wanted to do and always said they were going to do at the first reasonable opportunity. The comparable argument in the UK is similar but more complex because most of the low-skilled working immigrants in the UK entered using (possibly deliberately) easily-abusable legal routes, not illegally.

No, my last comment was of course meant to reflect the state of last week.

This weekend, I got nothing done because I herded kids all day every day. And on weekdays...well, same as you.

They're projecting themselves as competent, efficient, confident, inevitable, and actually having a great time doing it.

That may be what they're attempting to do, but if so, I don't think it's working. "Chaotic", in the sense of "unpredictable; not reliably constrained by rules", is definitely part of the current image - see all the hubbub about their (supposed?) lack of respect for due process. I think if you're a legal immigrant, or indeed a birthright citizen who looks superficially foreign, you aren't currently going to have absolute confidence that ICE will leave you alone - or even let you go with an apology, if they should get you by mistake. To an even greater extent, if you are an illegal immigrant, I don't think you're going to be confident that ICE will guarantee you all the protections and legal counsel that you're entitled to.

And I… don't think this is an effect of left-wing smear campaigns? I get the vibe that these are, if not objectively justified fears, then at least fears that ICE are happy to encourage, presumably because they feel like it enhances their intimidation factor. They could certainly do more to fight that impression, if it is indeed a misconception. Hence, optics-wise - chaotic, not just efficient.

As Ulyssessword pointed out, licensing boards often have their powers constrained and limited by the state.

There is a bargain happening here. Licensing boards get to borrow some of the power of the state to create and have the state enforce semi-monopolistic characteristics in their industry. But in taking that bargain they are in turn subject to the whims of the state that has granted them power.

When you are acting as an individual you have rights. When you are acting as an agent of the state you have constraints.

I'd be fine if the state licensing board for these therapies said "screw this, we are disbanding". That is fully an option for them. But they'd lose a lot of the benefits that they get being under the aegis of the state. Especially tie ins with insurance, both their own malpractice insurance, and medical insurance that pays for these therapies.

Yes - trespassing often involves a malum in se crime like breaking and entering, breach of privacy if you get too close to the house, or trampling crops, but non-destructively taking a shortcut across someone else's field is one of the textbook examples of malum prohibitum and the law in most places reflects this.

Land Law 101 is that there are no legally cognisable natural rights in land and you only "own" land because the State says you do.

I assure you, porn was no less difficult to acquire in the ussr or iran than south korea.

He thinks he has left the faith, but he still sounds like a Witness.

I almost want to say that parents SHOULD tell their children that Santa is real. That way they learn very quickly in life that everyone will lie to them without hesitation for the most trivial of reasons.

yes_chad.jpg

I literally don't know a single kid who had the problems he had with it, and I strongly suspect his JW upbringing has to do with it (and/or autistic inclinations unsurprisingly inherited from his parents). Not saying there are none otherwise, but it's just extremely rare. The average kid play-pretends a lot naturally already, and they instinctively pick up on Santa being somewhere in the same area, but they're not sure. Then as they get older they notice further facts solidifying that impression, and maybe have a short, smug santa-isn't-real phase, but they quickly join in again on the play-acting ... because it's fun. The "santa-lie" is a great way to indirectly teach kids how to distinguish between truth and fantasy, and the fact that ultimately this is something you can only ever do yourself, for yourself.

I'll just quote myself here:

It's called ethnic spoils for a reason. It doesn't matter much whether the different ethnicities have immigrated recently or have been there for generations.

Foreign-born is generally one of the worst categories you can possibly look at, because it mixes vastly different groups together as if they are mostly interchangeable. Ethnic spoils systems also don't depend on trust/solidarity, it's quite the opposite; Because trust is so low, nobody believes any other group to actually do merit-based allocations, and without trust, allocating by quota is usually the only kind-of-fair system that everyone can agree on.

Santa is a harmless fantasy that kids get to believe in for a precious few years. I don't think it's in the least bad to encourage the belief.

Stop doing stuff until the low-level pain goes away, it sounds like chronic inflammation.

I definitely believed Santa was real. I can't speak for the internal thoughts of anyone around me, but they didn't seem to be just going along, they seemed to believe it as well.

Work cooked my brain last week, so no update.

Since your last comment was on Monday, @Southkraut, I take it the same goes for you?

I’ll not reject this interpretation but we can look at this more charitably even without subscribing to femcel views (whether femcels actually exist is highly debatable in itself, but that’s another subject). I think it’s entirely understandable that many bog standard women find it tiresome and cringey to live in a culture where they’re implicitly expected to engage in a sexual arms race for the attention of the men they find desirable, after the female sexual cartel has collapsed. It’s cringey in the same way normal men cringe at the sight of an army of simps competing for the social attention of e-thots.

Just make America enough of a soccer country to start having real soccer ultras/hooligans (from what I've seen, the American ones seem to be considered quite larpy). Of course soccer firms tend to be recruitment grounds for actual political extremism, as well, but that's the sort of thing where you "learn to fight. They have to have something to capture, some opponent to beat, and some promise of reward for taking risks" (the last one being social ingroup approval).

I think the point was that soup is cooked, not brewed.

They're not particularly slow though? They do go on the freeway now. And they've rolled out in Atlanta, which does sometimes get snow and ice, though not nearly as badly as you see in the north or midwest.

I'd hope most soup would count as hot, and preferably a drink.