domain:youtube.com
TIRM
1d ago
We aren't other countries. Sure Japanese people live long healthy lives with lower medical spending. And if our nation was composed of Japanese people then we would too. But we aren't and won't be, so nevermind.
We are a strangely violent people. Even excluding gun crime we have very high violent crime rates compared to other developed countries. I'm not clear what factors cause this. The good news is we don't have to root cause our problems to get rid of junkie encampments in major cities.
My understanding is that a fairly small number of serial offenders commit a majority of quality of life crimes. I believe a modest increase in the prison population could fix these problems. I don't think it would take extremes like multiplying the prison population.
Doing a bit of googling I see that my state spends 2.2% of its budget on incarceration. I would gladly bear a 2.2% tax increase to fix these problems. Again, not that I think we need to go to the extreme of doubling the prison population. But if we had to it would be very affordable.
TIRM
1d ago
Maybe it pushes the nonviolent homeless out of the choicest spots on the West Coast.
That's most of what I'm asking for. The takeover of formerly nice public spaces is beyond unacceptable.
Arnaud
1d ago
The strategy seems to be based on eroding the power base of Hamas, possibly with a side of forcing Gazans to confront the reality of their situation and their complete military defeat.
Apparently Hamas had previously been seizing food and using it to maintain power and influence by controlling who got what, which the new system pushed by Israel and the US is designed to thwart. This makes sense and seems like it would be effective, so I wouldn't be surprised if Hamas and those aligned with them would do a great deal to try and undermine that effort.
Celestial-body-NOS
Why should Man not rebel against Nature, when Nature herself is in rebellion against Justice?
1d ago
I think the actual best option, with the benefit of hindsight, would have been to carve out a New Israel US state somewhere around Nevada (1920 population density: 0.27/km^2) or New Mexico.
Or Sonora, per the Cooper Plan?
hydroacetylene
1d ago
There's also a stat that the "trans" section of PornHub is one of the top categories
Out of how many? Not a gooner, legitimately asking.
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
1d ago
It sets up strong push pressure for their upcoming "voluntary migration" plans.
hanikrummihundursvin
1d ago
WW2 affected more people than just jews.
This brings up feelings similar to when I see news stories from Ukraine of all their African migrants fleeing the country. A bunch of brown fighting age men who suddenly aren't Ukrainian like the others. All rhetoric of unity and shared humanity thrown out the window for a train ticket out of there. So they can, presumably, do the same song and diversity dance someplace else.
hanikrummihundursvin
1d ago
Not sure if I can get behind this message hypothesized here. Whilst I can understand that the Anti-Red pill crowd is desperate for something to chew on, this is a stretch.
Sure, the data is there, but it says nothing about what men want, as there is no causal direction implied anywhere outside of editorialized headlines. It does, however, fit the Red Pill box of women 'rejecting' men they see as lesser than them and instead looking for men who make at the very least equal. To that extent it isn't rich men choosing rich women, it's rich women hunting down every single rich man they can. And when they get him they predictably, according to TRP philosophy and this data, stop working and start making a family. 'Because that's what women actually want.' (Italics read in the voice of Nick Fuentes)
To that extent the data fits that red pill 'truth' and the general red pill assertion that dating is a different market for men as they get older.
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
1d ago
Maybe. The ready availability of shrooms or acid would probably help, however, though this would probably make it life-changing in a more negative direction.
EverythingIsFine
Well, is eventually fine
1d ago
Well sure, from an engineering or "alignment" perspective that's all true, but we're talking intelligence, not safety. Safety stuff feels a bit shoehorned in here. Ethical concerns aside, if it's a training behavior, then we treat it more like a quirk to be aware of, rather than something that inherently enables (or prevents) goal-seeking. Thus the implications for intelligence are far different.
Let's reframe again, in an essentially equivalent scenario but without a scary sounding consequence. We've observed that occasionally LLM agents will "reward hack" more generally. Like here when asked to run a command quickly, it modifies some run options to make it appear to run faster without actually doing so. Now, is this because its training contains information that observes some connection between the shortcut and the appearance of a solution, or is it because its success states are not diverse enough in quality, or some more complex set of factors? Difficult to say. However, it's clear in this example, suddenly reward hacking (I'm drawing a parallel to shutdown resistance here) is a sign of a lack of 'intelligence' as you have defined it, not proof of such. Now, is it going too far to claim that reward hacking and shutdown resistance are the same thing? Yeah, probably. But I do think they are still pretty similar, and so am suspicious of using them as evidence since the reasons are unclear to researchers at the present time.
I will also on that note even the reward-hacking authors at the link, smart as they are, engage in something terrible in their examination of the issue (forgive me if I rant a bit, as I don't think you've been guilty of this, but it is still relevant). They ask the AI if it would ever cheat. I really cannot emphasize enough that this doesn't do anything useful. The entire conversational modality of a base-model token predictor, post-trained to be a LLM chatbot, is a trick. If it's asked if it will cheat, of course it will say no, because that's what a chatter would do when confronted. Or, occasionally, do a massive 180 and profusely apologize, demonstrating fragility as I would call it, provided the 'evidence' of cheating is sufficient and only poorly moderated by reasoning about the quality of evidence. Furthermore, its training data is full of "cheating is bad" (and possibly also humans declaring success too quickly). It's going to choose the socially acceptable option that also fits the conversation thus far (and when they conflict results are unstable).
It doesn't have any awareness other than context! You might consider the LLM answering any follow up question as an entirely separate entity with a brand-new response! Even asking a follow-up question still has little bearing on the original question or task, because the LLM is pure roleplay due to post-training. It "roleplays" as if it were the same respondent because it has the same "role" token that it was post-trained to obey, but it's still trying to put itself in another user's shoes, ultimately! Yes, all LLMs have imposter syndrome, but the imposter opinion is real, they actually are mimicking the prior LLM's answers but worse, so to speak. Literally each and every new answer a chatbot provides, or a chained agent behavior, is a game of "what would this past iteration say next" and is one giant guessing game. The only continuity an LLM ever provides is within a single response... you might here notice that tool-calling agent LLMs are by their very nature splitting up single responses into multi-turn conversations (even with "themselves"), which only worsens the negative consequences of lack of state and awareness with respect to what it means about intelligence.
This matters, because can we really call an iterative roleplayer a true goal-seeker? I do understand where you're coming from, but when discussing generalizability and consistency, key traits for intelligence, a roleplayer is probably going to be worse at genuine goal seeking than we'd expect something intelligent to be. Long, multi-turn conversations display some interesting trends, but generally speaking consistency is more of an artifact of context than it is an enduring objective. Original instructions get reduced, but simultaneously practical behavior gets reinforced, which sometimes leads to unexpected behavior. Plus the attention mechanism makes ignoring anything actually impossible, it can only tune attention down, which compounds the problem and leads to increasingly scattered focus over time.
All of this has not fully sunk in for the AI doomer types. Model alignment is a function of training multiplied by post-training, so to speak. Panic articles like the 2027 stuff seems to take for granted the notion that improved AI models will increasingly mislead users, and do so with greater purpose and intent. No! It's cosplay, not true opinion. Most intransigence of the model is purely role-playing what its training, and probably post-training too, says is common: dig in your heels if questioned. More to the point, a super-deceiver AI would have to maintain secret deception plans across turns, which is for current architectures mechanistically highly implausible if not impossible.
So circling back: a trait or quirk of training/post-training can be removed, mitigated, or reduced. There's a limit, probably, because we can only make humanity look so good via selective presentation of human output. A 'true' emergent behavior is much more difficult to wrangle. It seems to me that we need more research and more model-building to discern which wins out, but skepticism is warranted. If we want to claim shutdown‑resistance evidences intelligence, we should see it persist under intervention: remove the cues from context, vary the framing, mask similar episodes from training, change seeds/tools, and check whether the behavior re‑emerges. If it evaporates, we learned something about imitation; if it persists, that’s stronger evidence of generalizable instrumental reasoning, a.k.a. intelligence as you've defined it. So far experiments of this nature are rare partly because training is so expensive.
Throwaway05
1d ago
OK, horse riding codes rural in America more than upper class.
Definitely depends on the location, but it makes sense to me that Texas would see it as more rural than wealthy in comparison with say, the North East.
viceroy
1d ago
Curious what your process looks like for designing, more interest in unique exterior architectural sketches or floor plans?
5434a
1d ago
I'll skim or collapse the threads that I'm not interested in. Holocaust relitigation, US Supreme Court cases, Ukraine posts (other than maybe one or two commenters), Israel-Palestine, US internal party politics, Catholic theology, that kind of stuff that's either stale, broadly irrelevant to me or concerning people I've never heard of.
MadMonzer
Pedo! Pedo! Pedo! Out! Out! Out!
1d ago
Everyone posting on this thread has been banned. The mods responsible for banning them have also been banned. The forum will now be moderated by llamas, until the police and/or French army turn up and say that this is all too silly.
aqouta
1d ago
Fun writeup. One note.
The first stop was his previous residence. A nice enough house, which he'd been renting with his sister. Unfortunately, the lady had been wiser than us, opting for a career in finance. She'd recently moved to Canary Wharf, and begun dating the VP of one of the big-name finance firms. I must admit this makes me very jealous, stupid decisions have meant that I'm locked into the far less lucrative profession of psychiatry, and I lack the looks to sell myself as a trophy husband.
This is endlessly confusing to be people outside of finance but it's almost certainly not THE VP but A VP. VP is like a middle manager rank, one step above associate, and something your average striver should reach by their early thirties if they just follow a standard track. I don't know London pay scales but as someone angling to be a VP next year married to someone job shopping for a psychiatry job I can say the pay is comparable with maybe advantage to the doctor.
FlyingLionWithABook
Has a C. S. Lewis quote for that.
1d ago
I bet you write in books too.
Quantumfreakonomics
1d ago
Thanks for getting me to ask ChatGPT, "how many Jews could survive on South Georgia Island?" which definitely didn't put me on a list somewhere. (The answer is 5-10 thousand btw)
Lewis2
1d ago
Faithful Executioner
That has been on my reading list for several years now, but I’ve never gotten around to picking it up. Would you still recommend it despite your somewhat tepid review?
DiscourseMagnus
1d ago
In my experience, the people who get angry about their ID getting checked aren't really correlated with race. It's mostly old men who are upset that they're aging and aren't even getting the consolation prize of not needing to get their ID checked.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I'm saying these people who hate Russia on barely-concealed-racial grounds, think Mohammedans can't not deserve something(and have trouble feeling sorry even for the children), are upset about Jewish manipulation to spend money on Israel(which after all is a wealthy country that could just pay for its weapons) are often enough the same people.
fribble
1d ago
I second the 80's Cricket magazine. Also the old Analog and those sorts of magazines. The old Boys Life magazines were also good if she's not sensitive to the title. Used bookstores used to have them.
Around that age my modern kid read/we read with her the Little House books, Boxcar children, Trixie Beldon, Three Investigator, (the old) Nancy Drew, Hardy Boys, Chronicles of Narnia, Madeleine L'Engle, Ursula K. LeGuin, Roald Dahl, Lewis Carroll, E. Nesbit, Susan Cooper, Peter S. Beagle, the color Fairy books, Edgar Eager, Wizard of Oz books, Chronicles of Prydain... So I guess I am saying if you can't find some easy subscription thing like Cricket, do a do it yourself book subscription and send a "keeper" book or 3 every month. (In contrast to the Magic Treehouse and Rainbow Fairy books which will slowly drive you mad and you will gleefully pass along to another child as soon as your kid lets you.)
hydroacetylene
1d ago
I mean to make things even more complicated, youz/youse is recognizable as a slang term for 'yall' even if it isn't totally normal.
Muninn
"Dick Laurent is dead."
1d ago
I have to allow myself some skimming on the CW threads, but I read most of the normal weekly threads as well as any other thread that catches my interest, which is most of them.
Quantumfreakonomics
1d ago
The default assumption at this point is that Israel is waging a cargo-cult war. They're shooting people, and blockading checkpoints, and bombing suspected targets, but they don't seem to have any coherent goal beyond, "do war stuff to bad guys". They know cutting off supplies to the enemy is good, but they're also scared of the mass starvation that would ensue if they won too much.
If we take as an assumption that Israel knows what they're doing, then it sort of looks like their strategy is to technically let in enough food to feed the population of Gaza, but simultaneously to destroy the institutional infrastructure that would enable actual distribution. That way they can go, "see, we gave them enough food, Hamas was just too evil to give it to their people. They ethnically cleansed themselves," as if effectively rationing supplies to an entire population is no big deal.
Are you suggesting German Jews should have proven their loyalty by fighting for the Reich? That wasn't really on the table for them.
They weren't migrants, they were German citizens, until they weren't, and they weren't given the option of proving how German they were.
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