domain:forecasting.substack.com
TowardsPanna
2d ago
Leave me out of this bleeding anus business š¤
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2d ago
They exist elsewhere on the planet. Itās not like itās impossible. Furthermore, the long term benefits of getting REE and bringing home the manufacturing of chips especially for defense are getting those critical components out from under the thumb of a geopolitical rival, creating jobs that would be decent paying manufacturing jobs, creating an industry with the potential for export. Those are not trivial wins, especially if China decides to wield its power in ways we oppose. If China makes a play for Taiwan, do you really think theyāll continue to sell us the material, let alone the chips themselves that weād use to defeat them? Would any sane person in the Cold War feel comfortable sourcing critical components from Eastern Europe? Thatās pretty much where we are, hoping that China will continue to sell us weapons that they know in a hot war weāre going to use on them.
Botond173
2d ago
Was he a bad president in the sense that he was guilty of the grave moral failing of racism or in the sense that his actions sabotaged the interests and conditions of the nation? Also, in what sense of the word was his racism seen as severe?
MadMonzer
Epstein Files must have done something really awful for so many libs to want him released.
2d ago
About 80% of $100 bills are outside the US. It isn't clear whether they are being used by crooks or as a bullion-equivalent by normies who don't trust their local currencies.
Based on these stats that works out as about $1.5 trillion of Benjamins held outside the US (15 billion notes), representing an interest-free loan to USG that covers a few percent of the national debt.
Some of the really budget single ply stuff is somewhat similar to sand paper tbh, and given that he works for the NHS I wouldn't be surprised if he's encountered literally the worst toilet paper ever produced by humankind.
MadMonzer
Epstein Files must have done something really awful for so many libs to want him released.
2d ago
Again completely agreed, it's weird how the USA seems to be that one single country in the world where the price you see on labels is not the price you pay.
Canada add GST (their equivalent of VAT) and provincial sales tax at the till in the same way as America.
MadMonzer
Epstein Files must have done something really awful for so many libs to want him released.
2d ago
My understanding is that at the time the EUR was introduced in 2002, Germany still had sufficiently backward payments tech (for similar reasons to the US - basically a lot of small state-licensed banks and a culture that wanted to protect them against competition from large national banks with proper IT departments) that sometimes the only way to get a large transaction through on a same-day basis was to use a wad of 1000 DM notes. The 500 EUR note was a like-for-like replacement, and was no longer needed once Germany developed a nationwide electronic payments system that actually worked.
MadMonzer
Epstein Files must have done something really awful for so many libs to want him released.
2d ago
The 100k only existed as a gold certificate (and therefore illegal for private individuals to hold during the New Deal era when private holdings of gold were restricted). The 500, 1k, 5k and 10k existed in all forms of US currency including legal tender Federal Reserve Notes ("green" money). The original Binion's Horseshoe casino in Las Vegas (home of the WSOP) had a tourist attraction where you could be photographed in front of a million dollars in 10k bills.
As with all obsolete US currency, the large denomination notes are still legal money and a regulated bank should accept them for deposit at face value. They are rare enough that the numismatic value normally exceeds the face value, so this never happens.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
2d ago
What parts of a whole one thinks relevant is a subjective question, though, not "completely separate realities". Someone who thinks toast colour is the most important thing in the world can still agree with you on whether the toaster's plugged in.
I'm not going to say there aren't true delusions on that side of the fence, though. I'd argue that the overuse of "fascist" is to some extent a differing definition of the term rather than a disagreement on ground truth... but only to an extent.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
2d ago
I remember that incident, but the guy has multiple blogs jam-packed with nuanced takes on a million different topics. It's like calling the Austrian mustache man a "noted vegetarian."
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2d ago
American reactions are pretty bizarre, I don't understand how these people take themselves seriously. Take this Ā«House Select Committee on the [ā¦] CCPĀ»:
āChinaās action today is an economic declaration of war against the United States and a slap in the face to President Trump amid his efforts to fight for a level-playing field. China has fired a loaded gun at the American economy, seeking to cut off critical minerals used to make the semiconductors that power the American military, economy, and devices we use every day including cars, phones, computers, and TVs. Every American will be negatively affected by Chinaās action, and thatās why we must address Americaās vulnerabilities and build our own leverage against China. We should immediately pass my legislation to end preferential trade treatment for China, build a resilient resource reserve of critical minerals, secure American research and campuses from Chinese influence, and strangle Chinaās technology sector with export controls instead of selling it advanced chips. Xi Jinping only respects strength and I am ready to work with patriotic business leaders, our congressional leadership, and the Trump Administration to show China that its belligerent trade actions will be met with serious efforts to protect the American people, secure our supply chains, and cut off the flow of U.S. capital and technology into China."
Man, why the pearl-clutching? Why the shocked Pikachu face? It's unbecoming. This is explicitly a retaliation for your ongoing and already very impactful attempts to throttle their tech sector, you've declared this war many years ago when you sentenced Huawei to death. Moreover the fact that they'll eventually be in a position to retaliate via REE dependence has been known for well over a decade, and there's been a warning shot in Japan over Senkaku. You chose this route, your team was consistently rejecting all offers of deescalation because you believed to have escalation dominance. So own it. The extent of third-worldist hypocrisy is breathtaking:
Chinaās new rare earth export controls prove one thing: Beijing will weaponize any leverage it has.
America needs a new normalānot tit-for-tat.
We must strategically decouple and throttle the PRC tech sector before itās too late. š§µ
Chinese export controls are obviously tit-for-tat for US export controls, so by new normal they basically mean unrestricted always-defect economic warfare. It seems that the US isn't really capable of negotiating, the notion that you can't always bully your way to an objective is alien to these folks (we've already seen this with Bessent's "China has revealed itself as a bad actor"). There's the assumption that the US (or at least "with allies") necessarily possesses some hidden strength that can be activated to indignantly reject the adversary's offer.
Well, maybe there is. I'm optimistic that out-of-China production can be scaled up in a matter of years, if no deal is made. Primarily China intends to cripple defense applications, and frankly how can you object to that, this idea Ā«greedy communists will sell us the materiel to shoot them withĀ» has always been risible. They are also likely going to suppress the planned reindustrialization and (very dubious) robotic labor revolution in the US. All of that Ā«justĀ» reduces CAGR in a wide range of industries for the next 3-7 years, while Chinese physical productive capacity keeps growing exponentially. The demand for chips, though, will definitely be met. In the meantime, the US will have to capitalize even harder on its software/AI advantage. We'll see which is more important.
Corvos
2d ago
Also a 100,000 dollar bill, again for use between major banks only. Private handling of one was illegal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_one-hundred-thousand-dollar_bill
cjet79
2d ago
Nah, he hated central banks and had a huge wheel of cheese in the Whitehouse on his inauguration. One of the coolest presidents.
My aunt just used a rolled up newspaper applied to the nose for a mild negative reinforcement, equivalent to the dope slap. But dogs are social animals, theyāre as motivated by disapproval as much or more than pain. āBAD DOGā in the right tone of voice is usually all you need, I think.
ControlsFreak
2d ago
Sure, it is not absurd to have a perfectly inelastic supply curve, in theory. Presumably, you'd still have a downward-sloping demand curve and an equilibrium price, yes? Or are you wanting to posit a perfectly inelastic demand curve, too? Honestly, I wouldn't know what to say other than, "Wow, such theory," because yes, I'm pretty sure it is trending toward absurd to think that either of these is actually the reality in the low-pay labor market... and it gets more and more absurd to think that both are the reality.
Which brings me back to... anyone got any evidence that this theoretical edge case is actually the case in reality?
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
You are doing something very wrong. Or you have bought sandpaper from the hardware store by mistake.
conoclast
2d ago
There is something comical to me about this having 0 points on this site, to me it's a well intentioned post and title and yet it will never work (perhaps that is simply my view however). I would posit that this is even more general where leftism used to be tightly linked with class and freedom of speech and now is the thing that has been most "poisoned" over the past decade, and previous people who held that label have the poisoned choice of abandoning it and making it seem less sane or trying to market a new term. There is also a clash between purist-types who would advocate freedom of speech despite a large coalition who had no respect for it for years and (I don't know) realistic/pragmatic types who I would not even say it would be hypocritical to want revenge/retaliation instead.
Whenever there is a drift of terminology from a core useful idea (like what has happened to "freedom of speech") I often meditate on whether others believed the original idea at all. It feels a bit bleak to think of it that way, though.
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
There is almost no big USA company that has not some DoD contracts.
conoclast
2d ago
Not exactly right-wing but agree on what the video is communicating, and on "wanting to become violent is the right and natural reaction" jives with me, though I probably do not feel it as viscerally as you mention. I guess I could see myself 'relaxing' to this video in the background, in the "holy shit yes there's someone who agrees that this is clearly insane" viewpoint.
Bartender_Venator
2d ago
Very Roman of you!
Bartender_Venator
2d ago
I recall dealing with both that and the $2 bill a lot in college. The ticket machines for the train didn't take cards, and for some reason gave dollar coins as change, so if I only had $20s I now had 18 Susan B. Anthonys in my pocket. Then one of the officers in my frat had the bright idea of giving $2s as change at our parties, so people would associate us with those and I guess come to parties more. Must have annoyed the hell out of cashiers.
CertainlyWorse
No one is coming. It's just you.
2d ago
I think its more like the witch hunter's community promised that they would not suffer any witch to live among them. Which kind of happened automatically because no witch wanted to live there (except maybe for an ultra-powerful immortal witch that wandered in for a laugh to show how silly and impotent the witch hunters were).
But pretty much the witch hunters got bored with no witches to kill and started hunting each other. The community slowly died off as a result.
ThisIsSin
PC is for progressive-conservative
2d ago
Well, then I must not be a man, as this didn't work whenever I tried it. Despite the insistence of a particular lasagna-loving cat I do indeed, appear, sadly?, to be so immune.
I could perhaps have been shocked out of that state if my mind was changed a long time ago, but therein lies the problem- if it's competition a boy is rejecting, you might have to give him a... bit of slow pitch so that he actually bothers. But why would any sane man (or woman, for that matter) allow a good woman to waste herself on play-dominance training for such a boy to the strict detriment of his more natively competition-minded peers?
self_made_human
amaratvaį¹ prÄpnuhi, athavÄ yatamÄno mį¹tyum Äpnuhi
2d ago
I stand corrected then. Or perhaps it's because TP has given me hemorrhoids and sitting is agony.
I prefer the coins simply because most of the times im using a dollar is in a vending machine because a coke or bag of chips is more than a dollar. And really I think bills should be reserved for denominations of money that would buy more than mere snacks.
More options
Context Copy link