domain:forecasting.substack.com
orthoxerox
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15hr ago
then(Jews excepted) Arabized
Why except them? Palestinians are genetically more Jewish than Ashkenazi Israelis, so while they have some Arab admixture, they are mostly Arabized Jews.
Botond173
15hr ago
All of which, from a leftist activist perspective, constitute an unspeakable horror, of course.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
15hr ago
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Russell, driving a work van on a road with posted speed of 55 mi/h (90 km/h), approaches a green traffic light from the southwest. The light turns yellow, but Russell thinks he can get past it before it turns red, so he does not stop. Christopher, sitting in a work truck at the same intersection's northwest traffic light, sees the lights starting to change and decides to enter the intersection early, while he still has a red light. Russell attempts to swerve his van around Christopher's truck (without braking), but the van collides with the truck anyway (hard enough to spin the truck around by 180 degrees) and thence careens into Jasmine's car, which is in the process of stopping at the northeast traffic light. Three of Jasmine's limbs are broken in the crash. Accordingly, she sues Russell and Christopher for causing her injuries through negligence. The jury decides that (1) the injuries are worth 3.5 M$ and (2) Russell bears 60 percent of the fault (2.1 M$) and Christopher 40 percent (1.4 M$).
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Russell argues that the jury's decision to assign more fault to him than to Christopher is unsupportable by the evidence presented at trial, since Christopher broke the law (by running the red light) and Russell did not (by attempting to get through the intersection on a yellow light). But the trial judge rejects this argument, and the appeals panel affirms. Under state law as distilled in the charge issued by the trial judge to the jury, a driver approaching a yellow light "is obligated to exercise reasonable care, which includes making reasonable observations for traffic traveling on an intersecting street".* Therefore, the jury was perfectly entitled to conclude that a non-negligent driver (1) would have stopped at the yellow light rather than trying to get through it or (2) would have tried to avoid hitting Christopher by braking rather than by swerving without braking.
*See also the following model jury charges, which unlike this case-specific charge have been approved by a statewide committee: general duty of motorist; duty of motorist to make observations; and duty of motorist proceeding past stop sign.
orthoxerox
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15hr ago
low key practicing Christians
Do decorating a conifer around the New Year and boiling eggs for Easter count as Christian practices?
ControlsFreak
15hr ago
The billions of dollars generated by LLMs come from them performing tasks that, until very recently, could only be done by educated human minds. That is the fundamental difference. The value is derived from the processing and generation of complex information, not from being a physical commodity.
Prior to LLMs, would you have said that Google Web Search was intelligent? Prior to Google Web Search, it likely took an educated human mind to figure out how to find answers to all sorts of complex information problems. It generated billions of dollars in value by processing and generating complex information. Sure, it sometimes sucked... but LLMs sometimes suck, too.
The fact that an LLM can even play chess, understand the request, try to follow the rules, and then also write you a sonnet about the game, summarize the history of chess, and translate the rules into Swahili demonstrates a generality of intelligence that the Atari program completely lacks.
I mean, no? It just means that there was a bunch of information about chess in its training set.
Botond173
15hr ago
He believes society could police sexual & religious morality, it would more likely have had him flogged for drinking or disrespect or dirty jokes
Any society where such floggings are the norm is surely also one where policing sexual morality - which I guess in this context actually means policing women's sexual behavior so that they are deterred from becoming floozies and punishing cads who would make floozies out of such women - is also the norm. I see no contradiction.
He believes he'd be the head of a respected family, more likely he'd chafe under his grandfather/uncle's authority
Again, no contradiction there. As a patriarch you're the head of your own nuclear family. On the other hand, your uncle and grandpa are above you in the social hierarchy, and as long as they adhere to social norms, they are deputized to intervene in your life in case you're failing in your life as a patriarch i.e. beating up your wife for no good reason or beating her too severely etc. This is how patriarchy works. Duh.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
15hr ago
Israel has always been disliked by basically everyone
I disagree with "always".
Israel was popular with the pro-establishment left well into the 1980s, even in countries where the pro-establishment left wasn't dominated by Jews. The Yes, Minister sketch about Israel-Palestine has Hacker and the politicians being pro-Israel because it is the moderate, popular position and Sir Humphrey and the Deep State being pro-Palestine because they want to make nice to the Gulf Arabs. (This was back when the Gulf Arab monarchies were as anti-Israel as the rest of the Arab world). Pro-establishment right attitudes to Israel used to depend on how much the pro-establishment right favoured making nice to the Gulf Arabs for cynical oil-politics reasons vs standing up for Western values.
Why? A combination of Cold War politics (Israel's worst enemies where Soviet clients), Holocaust guilt, straightforward preference for civilisation over barbarism, and a belief among non-Communist socialists that Israel back when Labour was the natural party of government was a socialist success story.
What changed? The Cold War ended, post-colonial guilt replaced Holocaust guilt, the era where Israel was a plucky underdog receded into history, changes in Israeli domestic politics made it less sympathetic to Western leftists (and, increasingly, with the rise of religious Zionism and the increasing influence of true-believing Orthodox Judaism, fans of Western civilisation more generally), the humanitarian situation for Palestinians in the West Bank (for which Israel is to blame) and Gaza (for which Israel is widely but unfairly blamed) got worse after the failure of Oslo compared to pre-Oslo.
orthoxerox
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15hr ago
I don't presume anyone wants a full breakdown of my personal lack of interest in most anime
I do
Botond173
15hr ago
Again, I'm asking you to consider the social reality of living in modernity. If a woman engages in activities that she wants to keep private from men in her social circle who aren't their husband or long-term boyfriend, she can do so with little effort because the women in her social circle who do know about it, she can generally count on to assist her in this.
orthoxerox
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15hr ago
Yeah, that's a good take, I agree. Alternatively, if you rephrase the question as "you have to spend four hours working on the tasks the commune needs done the most, you can spend the other four hours on the tasks you think will benefit the commune. What are they?" the answers become acceptable as well.
The whole point of utopias is that they try to get away from "we toil and toil, and when we die, must fill dishonored graves" mentality. They are not about optimizing productivity, they are about uplifting every individual. Of course, the vast majority would say they would rather hang out with their friends, smoke dope and play vidya, but these people do not read, let alone write, utopian fiction.
KingOfTheBailey
15hr ago
Individuals can do that; amorphous groups never can.
And in-between, specific groups can. This wasn't the group I was looking for, but in 2015 a group called Freedom To Marry shut itself down:
And, proving your point:
Instead of becoming “an organization that flails around and figures out what to do next,” he said he would help employees find work in other “good-guy causes” and make sure the group’s records were properly archived so that other social movements could study its methods.
Botond173
15hr ago
sentiments that actually, promiscuity is good, being a camgirl is a completely normal job, and having a dozen boyfriends in one year and collecting gifts and favors from all of them on the way is par for the course and bystanders should politely not notice it
Also, "sex workers" should not be discriminated in any way anywhere, and if they are, hypocritical men and indoctrinated/self-hating/brainwashed women are to blame, because it's only men who watch porn, and all men watch porn. They are victims, unless we decide that they actually aren't. Any man who expresses any viewpoint about the porn industry that isn't 100% supportive is just a thirsty loser garbage human. On the other hand, sex work should idealistically not exist at all, but it should be completely normalized in the intermediate period until feminism does away with it; at the same time, this should not give the impression to toxic men in any shape or form that it's normal for women to engage in sex work in exhange for money and that it's something that can be expected from cash-strapped modern women.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
16hr ago
Look, it's not much of a bailey. A bailey is a walled area one means to make use of. This is more of a wide open field I took a stroll through on a whim.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
16hr ago
Isn't "you can't know that it's not happening" more of an anti-argument; a discussion-stopper?
Botond173
16hr ago
As far as I can tell, the main factor in all of this is that women remember the disappointing experiences they had with men they are attracted to and the assume that such behavior is universal among men. I very mouch doubt the women who install and use this app ever even notice or interact with anyone from the bottom fifth of the male socio-sexual hierarchy.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
16hr ago
Recklessness with regard to truth is sufficient to establish actual malice.
"I heard it on the internet and it was too good to check" is a textbook example of recklessness with regard to truth.
Botond173
16hr ago
I did a cursory search online to find evidence that Jean-Michel Trogneux does exist, is in good health and denied the allegations. I didn't find any, that's for sure.
Botond173
16hr ago
Let's see the original claim:
They dress skimpily, date industriously, engage in serial monogamy, and are not at all averse to material benefits resulting from these activities.
For the sake of argument, would you realistically know about it if any of your female cousins did engage in such things?
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
16hr ago
France has sufficiently strong privacy laws that it probably would not have been reported until Macron came to the attention of the English-speaking press, which is around the time he started running for President.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
16hr ago
Weren't fascist movements a reaction to erstwhile aristocracy ?
Mussolini had a large number of aristocrats in his cabinet, and ennobled a bunch of retired WW1-era generals who he didn't have to, as well as his own successful generals and a small number of Fascist politicians. I would say Mussolini had a revealed preference the continued existence of the Italian nobility as a functioning warrior-elite - indeed given the history of the Italian nobility, had WW2 never happened Mussolini would have left Italy with a more functional aristocracy than he found it with. I can't find a list of top people in the Fascist party organisation, so I don't know how many were aristocrats.
The only aristocrat in Hitler's cabinet (after the aristocratic conservatives associated with von Papen were sidelined) was von Ribbentrop, and the aristocracy was notably underrepresented among the Gauleiters. The Weimar Republic had abolished the formal status of nobility, so Hitler didn't have the option of ennobling his generals, but he never came across as someone inclined to do it. Even under Weimar, the German nobility was a functioning warrior-elite, and Hitler was never entirely comfortable with it - arguably the foundation of the Waffen SS is an attempt to establish an alternative warrior-elite on Nazi rather than aristocratic lines.
So I don't think there is a consistent view on fascist-aristocrat relations.
OliveTapenade
16hr ago
I'll actually give a limited defense of "What's your job on the leftist commune?"
I don't think the people engaging in that thread understand themselves to be sincerely laying out a plan for a total society. On the contrary, the idea that it's a commune probably suggests that it's a small, utopian community within a larger implicitly capitalist society, if anybody is even thinking that far ahead. But I don't think they are, because "what's your job on the leftist commune?" is not a question about politics at all.
What the question is actually asking is, "What would you do if you didn't have to work?", or perhaps "How would you want to spend your life if you didn't have to participate in a capitalist economy?" The details of how the commune works are beside the point. If you didn't have to do anything you don't want to - how then would you want to contribute to society?
It's a utopian fantasy, and I think there's actually a place for utopian fantasy thought experiments. Throw realism out the window for a minute and - what would you like to do? Then once you've reflected on that a bit, take the insights you find from the process and bring them back to the grubby real world of toil and compromise.
The answers people give are cringeworthy, but all fantasies tend to sound cringeworthy when you voice them out loud, and I'd defend this kind of fantasy as a reasonable thing for people of any political orientation to do. Maybe it's a hippie commune. Maybe it's a trad farming community. Maybe it's on a Culture orbital. Maybe it's a royal palace, or maybe it's being an ascended digital being with god-like power. It doesn't matter. But I think that the job on the leftist commune is basically the same thing as, say, Bostrom's Deep Utopia. It's immature but perhaps useful - and if this makes me think more of random Twitter leftists and less of Nick Bostrom, then that's all properly balanced.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
16hr ago
Could anyone tell who he was working for from the video, and did he said anything at all relating to their business?
If you want to say "a company should be able to fire and hire whoever they want, for any reason" there's entire books of labour law that would need to be abolished to stop the government from being "authoritarian".
The Western public is okay-ish with anyone killing anyone in countries they would struggle to find on a map except for Jews and Palestinians.
The amount of foreign interest in the Israel-Palestine conflict (on both sides) is orders of magnitude greater than other long-standing conflicts with a comparable humanitarian cost.
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