domain:natesilver.net
WhiningCoil
3d ago
Well, the 401k has been trucking along about 20 years, with 9% of my income (5% contribution, 4% match). The brokerage account I've had about 10 years, and bitcoin has been an 8 year accumulation. Most of my "active" investing has taken place in the last 8 years.
There were a smattering of minor setbacks that came out of the emergency fund. New well pump, birth of my child, etc. Nothing in the six figure range, or even much above $10,000 at a shot. Buying a house with 20% down in 2021 was probably the largest "set back" if all you care about is maximizing contributions to an investment account. But despite the opportunity cost of being out around $100,000 for the down payment, it's been worth it. I don't really include the appreciation on the house in my "Fuck You" goal, but I do include the fixed cost of keeping a roof over my head compared to the rental market, as well as avoiding all the instability of having to deal with a market for shelter at all. You see debates on the rent vs buy math all the time, but I can promise you the buy in 2021 versus rent today math absolutely works out in favor of "buy in 2021"
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
3d ago
A while back, when I was younger and less jaded, I did consider a career as a neurosurgeon specializing in brain implants. I (wisely) desisted, because neurosurgery is brutally difficult to break into, and I'd be in training or struggling to build a name for myself for a decade or more.
I wouldn't recommend anyone get their brain implants from me, though I will shill affiliate links when Neuralink cuts me a cheque.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
3d ago
Of course I did. Like @No_one correctly understood, I meant point defenses that shoot the drones down as they dive at the target. You can't cover a country the size of Ukraine, but you can protect the parts of your infrastructure that you can't just move underground or at least into a forest.
The interceptors are there mainly for cruise and ballistic missiles.
magicalkittycat
3d ago
It’s funny to me that in real life, many a man will cop to being friends with various kinds of scumbags with the “yeah, I wouldn’t want him to marry my sister, but he never did anything to me” reasoning, but somehow when it comes to celebrity I’m expected to be scandalized that people stayed friends with Epstein even though he had a thing for 16 year old girls (whom they may well have believed were 18 anyway)
How many of those scumbag men are accused of being ringleaders of international sex trafficking schemes (allegedly) providing for rich elites from across the world like royalty and party leaders? That seems a lot different to me than just "he had a thing for 16 year olds"
Also not just 16 year olds, one of the lawsuits alleged as young as 12
Even a thousand Epsteins wouldn’t be as bad as, say, the Rotherham scandal where 12 year olds were being sexually tortured and pimped to hundreds or thousands of strangers, sometimes dozens a day.
Yeah the Rotherham scandal is bad but is it hard to understand why people tend to care more about international elites more than they do gang members? People have always been interested in the drama of the powerful upper class and celebrities more than they are of the peasants.
aardvark2
3d ago
Has psychiatry adopted to that there are highly online people now and even "normal" life or many jobs necessarily require smartphones? They could have developed some screening model which operates on patients message history (doesn't even require a LLM to do it).
AvocadoPanic
3d ago
Where / which Costco in Sacramento?
I grew up in Sacramento, the unincorporated areas of Sacramento County.
Sacramento has frequently seen demographic change, and there were often 'ethnic' neighboords or areas. I've of photo of my grandmother's nearly all white graduating class (1939) from C.K. McClatchy High School. Even the suburbs (built in the early 1950's) my grandparents lived in have seen substantial changes. It had been tree lined and owner occupied, now mostly rentals and all the Modesto Ash were cut down.
I had been away for ~15 years before going back for the first time in 2015. I made another trip in 2016.
The people and places I miss aren't there anymore.
BreakerofHorsesandMen
Sweet Sejenus
3d ago
I was in the gym three times this week. I started the Jim Stoppani Beginner to Advanced program and, after roughly two years away from the gym, my lifts are somewhere between humbling and humiliating. On the other hand, at least I’m doing it.
On the gripping hand, I also did two sparring sessions, for about an hour each, and those went much, much better in the ego realm. I just have years of skill and experience on anyone else at the new club, and so even being very rusty (noticeably so to myself), I was able to spar in a pretty relaxed and casual manner and still do very well. Which is good because I needed the ego boost after the lifting.
On the other gripping hand, while I can do plenty to build up the skill level of the other people at the club, being a big fish in a small pond is the way to stagnate. I’ll have to think about ways to regularly get to other clubs and work with better fighters. In the interim, I aim to at least clean up my own technique so that I, personally, feel less sloppy.
TheAntipopulist
Formerly Ben___Garrison
3d ago
I don't understand what you mean by this. Is it that people often make this claim, therefore it must be wrong or something?
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3d ago
I think what will force the reckoning is not sincere questions, but losing ground in the business. Not just “people don’t go see the Palestinian genocide narrative supporting Superman, but people actively choose to support superheroes who espouse things they actually believe in. Create a pro-American superhero narrative that gets released to the same theaters that Woke Marvel goes to and I think they’ll at least downplay the Message. Have a pro-American, pro-Western Oikophillic Space Opera (maybe a revived Flash Gordon) release at the same time as Star Wars Old Republic, and when Star Wars flops, they might get the message.
For much too long, the Cathedral institutions have not faced an actual challenger. There are no real classical education modeled colleges and universities to challenge the chokehold that modern universities have on the student population. There aren’t many movies in mainstream distribution that really have traditional themes in them.
100ProofTollBooth
Dumber than a man, but faster than a dog.
3d ago
How long did it take?
Any major financial setbacks along the way? (Medical bills, non-insured damage to the house etc.)
Chrisprattalpharaptr
Ave Imperaptor
3d ago
All the Australians who adopted rabbits and had their livelihoods destroyed must be livid.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
3d ago
That seems quite possible, I'll admit. But I have wondered if this (and several similar brouhahas) could happen because the government has other reasons to not reveal the files that are known to the higher-ups on both sides of the aisle (classified, for example), but it's politically useful to hammer the party in power because it looks suspicious and there is little they can do about it.
For example, if the public were instead clamoring about child sexual abuse at Area 51, it'd be politically convenient to always blame those in power while neither side wants to "reveal the files" to prove that it's actually aliens whatever they do there, not child abuse.
In this case I don't doubt that Epstein was molesting children, but the supposed intelligence connections could be embarrassing for rather unrelated reasons ("reveals methods").
But the direct involvement of powerful figures sure is a juicy idea. Maybe it's even true.
WhiningCoil
3d ago
Short version, the ratio went something like 8:4:1 for 401k split 50/50 between growth and value funds, my regular brokerage account with my own stock picks, and then just bitcoin. Despite how heavily the ratio skews towards the 401k, all three accounts as of this post are within spitting distance of each other. My private brokerage account has almost doubled the growth of my 401k, and my bitcoin had almost quadrupled the growth of my brokerage account.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
3d ago
Gotta get to work on building implants so you can serve the Omnissiah better. ;)
Eupraxia
Of all words spoken, all things read / most true was that which went unsaid
3d ago
· Edited 3d ago
The ideal immigrant comes here not because his home country is a shithole, or because life here is easy and you get paid for showing up, or because his co-ethnics invited him to join their enclave, but because he wants to be German.
But of course, they all already want to be German. They obviously desire your material wealth and geopolitical power, and while they don't want to adopt your pro-social habits per se, they certainly enjoy the more immaterial fruits of your labor: your clean streets, your trusting and friendly people, your effective governance. They openly desire your women's gracile features and quietly envy your men's tall stature.
However, if HBD is to be believed, they can never be Germans, nor can their descendants be Germans; at least, not any recognizable descendants. For the foreseeable future, the only way that they may truly secure the prosperity they desire at scale is to intermarry with your people en masse and encourage their half-breed offspring to do the same. In doing this, they must internally accept the intrinsic inferiority of their type and witness the subsumption of their own clan and lineage into a wholly alien and unrecognizable gestalt.
... to be clear, I derive no pleasure from these words; I am one of the aforementioned half-breeds myself. I've been wanting to do a big top-level post detailing my outlook on these matters for a while, and writing this comment has given me the drive to actually write out the whole thing, so be on the lookout for that, i guess.
AmericanSaxeCoburgGothic
Happy to be here! Goal is to post the most exclamation points.
3d ago
Congrats! What did you invest in? I'm similarly trying to save, and watching it grow. Sometimes I wonder if it's just inflation in action; as the number goes up in today money.
Will be curious to see how the tone of shows like this changes having now entered an era of “reckoning” and “post-mortems” of democratic hubris.
This appears not to be happening at all, so far as I can tell. After a brief but abortive period of maybe a couple of weeks immediately following the election, in which it seemed like there might be some small but sincere effort toward this, progressives appear overwhelmingly to have hunkered down into a stance that they were right all along and that the voters really are just too irredeemable to ever be trusted again. Go on Bluesky and see how people who are perceived to be advocating “popularism” are treated. (You’re accused of throwing trans people and minorities to the wolves, betraying them for short-term mercenary political gain.)
A handful of smart-but-cynical elite figures like Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein might be trying to conduct a proper course-correction, but they appear to have little or no influence on the tier of progressives thought leaders and activists just below them. Presumably television scriptwriters are on the tier even below that one, totally insulated from the imprecations of politically-savvy wonks.
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
3d ago
She's appealing to the Supreme Court to throw her conviction out. She may well be innocent, or at least not as guilty as the crime she's been convicted of.
Browser
3d ago
Yeah this whole 'I have called you the no-no word so I automatically win the argument' attitude is consistent with left posters here since in their spaces the entire argument then just stops.
MadMonzer
Temporarily embarrassed liberal elite
3d ago
I am at the left edge of the Overton window on this site (I think MAGA and wokestupid are both awful, but MAGA is worse) and my most-upvoted posts are:
- Anti-Boris Johnson
- Pro-Ukraine, anti-Trump by implication
- Attacking a bad study by a right-wing thinktank
- Defending Boris Johnson against inaccurate criticism. The only low-effort post in the top 10
- Anti-Trump on tarriffs
- Anti-woke, endorsing Freddie de Boer thought
- Factual post on the US-UK trade "deal"
- Anti-Musk re. the DOGE all-staff e-mail
- Personal
- Thinky post about trans issues, trying to understand both sides
So you can get upvoted with high-effort posts that are anti-MAGA, particularly if they are attacking Trump from a non-leftist perspective. But there are a lot of people upvoting low-effort posts which are basically "Boo wokestupid". The things that most reliably attract downvotes are posts claiming that the 2020 election was not stolen or that J6 involved serious wrongdoing on the part of Team Trump and posts suggesting that the conservative movement in the US is or was lousy with racists.
pigeonburger
3d ago
The WSJ is not too partisan usually, but I would not be surprised if they felt that the Democrats would be less willing to throw in with socialists if they had better chances in the midterms.
WhiningCoil
3d ago
You get up 2.5m dollars any asshole in the world knows what to do. You get a house with a 25 year roof, an indestructible Jap economy shitbox, you put the rest into the system 3-5% to pay your taxes, and that's your base, get me? That puts you for the rest of your life at the level of "Fuck you". Someone wants you to do something? "Fuck You." Boss pisses you off? "Fuuuuck You." I have a car, and a house, and a family, and it's all paid for "Fuuuuuuuck You."
I remember seeing this clip go viral years and years ago. It's inspiring and terrifying in equal measure, and supposedly the movie it's from isn't even that good.
I am tantalizing close to reaching this goal. Got the house, got the paid off cars, got the family, and the last several years my investments have appreciated more than my yearly income. One year it lapped it. I still contribute to my investments, though my contributions are dwarfed by appreciation to such a degree it makes me question the utility of it. I originally wrote a post about what lessons I'd thought I'd learned to get here, but it felt like I was jacking myself off to much. Lets leave it at a combination of luck, thrift, relatively high income, and commitment to a plan.
Best of luck to you all, and here's hoping I didn't speak too soon.
07mk
3d ago
Because the sentence is false and thus should be destroyed by its own prescription. Unless you selectively apply it based on your whims and preferences. Exactly what you condemned in paragraph before.
But it isn't false. Again, you can consider a judgment call like this "wrong" or "misguided," but that's, just, like your opinion, man. If the truth is that people listening to this phrase is useful, then why would the truth destroy it? Why would we want to destroy something that's truthfully useful?
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
3d ago
True, but the idea of low-cost accurate cruise missiles was too much to ask for a couple decades ago. I don't see a reason the counter technologies (and current FPV drones seem weak to hard counters) can't see a similar volume production tradeoff.
The other explanation could be that proximity of blacks causes white criminality to go up too. Crime is infectious.
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