domain:link.springer.com
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
11hr ago
You know what, I could die happy if people tried to make a magic dirt argument to aliens about how we could raise their GDP if they just allowed us into their empire, and the aliens just went "Then why didn't you do that already on your own planet?" and hit delete on all of us.
ThenElection
11hr ago
Simply seizing as many resources as possible is an entirely rational decision. If grabby civilizations outcompete nongrabby ones, then those are the ones we'd expect to proliferate in the universe. Even if a civilization is internally nongrabby, if they encounter a grabby one, they're likely to resort to grabbiness as a survival mechanism. (This is why humans should be grabby preemptively; there can never be any kind of effective galactic UN.)
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
11hr ago
Pros: all thinking machines destroyed
Cons: Earth terraformed into another Arrakis so sandworms can produce more spice
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
What are you talking about? Acquiring the civilian population of weaker powers has been a key goal of conquest since ever. The Bible records thé wise men of Israël relocated to act as advisors in Babylon. The Romans were furious when archimedes was slaughtered in the sack of Syracuse. And the British empire used Indian soldiers extensively.
4bpp
Now I am become a Helpful, Honest and Harmless Assistant, the destroyer of jobs
11hr ago
That argument doesn't pass any sort of smell test. Even the wars of conquest and colonization on Earth (like the European Age of Exploration) were typically not motivated in any particular sense by acquisition of human capital, and there the conquerors and the conquered were significantly closer to each other in disposition and in particular capabilities/talent than any presumable spacefaring race would be to us. Instead, it's always acquisition of inanimate resources, or land, or preemptive weakening of a potential enemy. I figure the last one would be by far the most relevant one on a space scale.
If we (or, better: someone less sentimental, like the Victorians, the Saudis or the Chinese) went to Alpha Centauri and discovered a race of sentient insectoids somewhere around the development and intellectual level of Aboriginal Australians at the time of contact (but without aesthetics or ethics that are appealing or recognisable to us), do you actually think we would be integrating them for insectoid capital, as opposed to keeping a few specimens for study and either declaring the place a nature preserve or exterminating them and proceeding to colonise or strip-mine the place?
Drinniol
11hr ago
It doesn't take much effort for a civilization higher on the scale from us to send a kinetic kill vehicle.
Indeed, the idea of an interstellar invasion is ridiculous. Preemptive extermination of all other intelligences, however, makes a disturbing amount of sense from a game theoretic perspective.
birb_cromble
11hr ago
Based on a current understanding of physics, the only reason to launch an invasion would be to acquire the population as human capital for empire building
We're all going to be shocked and disappointed when we end up being collector's items, like a peculiar cultivar of tulip.
Easier said than done.
You misunderstand: that norm is enforced merely by intentionally refusing to prioritize your version of safety.
reasons like "but predators are online" sound a lot like "I don't let my kid outside after 3 o'clock because a stranger might come and snatch her."
Yes, which is why they're both treated as absurd by psychologically-healthy individuals. Interestingly, the latter is espoused by more parents than it would naturally be since the stranger is far more likely to be the State, which is far more dangerous.
because arguably, kids shouldn't even be on the Internet at all
It is interesting to see the parallels between how the paranoid in our culture seeks to treat children and how fundamentalist Islamic cultures seeks to treat women. I'm not convinced it's good for their personal development, but personal development is not a terminal value in these cultures (Islam worships Allah, westerners worship Safety) and "but muh risk of predation" is merely a fig leaf over that.
faceh
11hr ago
Or Von Neumann probes that were launched from so far away that there was no intelligent life on the planet at the time they were originally launched.
wingdingspringking
11hr ago
Long term I agree. The problem is, there is a high correlation right now between prices in the crypto space. A sudden plunge anywhere could cause a plunge everywhere. In theory BTC could bounce right back as the others collapse, but that isn't a forgone conclusion. It could just as easily take a major hit.
The gap between us and interstellar capable aliens is like gap between us and insects, and we usually do not go on long trips just to stomp on bugs.
Uh, point in of fact, I ABSOLUTELY go out of my way to kill ant colonies that pop up in my lawn, and I do so using more 'sophisticated' methods than stomping them.
And if I were worried about the ants teching up enough to pose a danger to me and my dog, I'd be even more vigilant about it.
Is there any rational motive for alien invasion? Usual science fiction tropes: "they want our water/women/fresh meat" are ludicrous, but there is a possibility.
I'm thinking a relativistic kill missile is more likely. But on the offchance they want to preserve the planet mostly intact, they just have to set us back to the bronze age or so.
I've been watching Isaac Arthur videos for like 10 years now, so I have seen a lot of 'imaginable' if not plausible scenarios for how Alien invasions could play out.
Primaprimaprima
I am trying so hard not to say the MBTI type of everyone I reply to
11hr ago
Since space optimism is rather common in the Ratsphere, I suppose it falls to me to articulate the opposing view, and to elaborate a little bit on why I find space (or at least, the prospect of space colonization) to be rather boring.
The human mind is currently the most interesting object in the known universe. All of the human minds are already here, on earth. We don't need to go out into space to find them.
Space of course has a lot of, well, space, in which humans can propagate and live their lives. But space colonization won't fundamentally change human nature. Humans on Mars will still love, laugh, cry, and die. They'll just be doing those things... in space. Thinking that that changes the fundamental calculus would be like saying that a painting becomes more interesting when you magnify it 100x and put it on a billboard. It's still the exact same painting. Just bigger.
There is certainly something to be said for the drama of scientific discovery, and the challenges of surviving in a harsh environment. But this is still just one potential drama among many, only one potential object of study among many.
I of course recognize the utilitarian value of space colonization in terms of hedging against extinction risks on earth. But this strikes me as essentially an administrative detail. Not unlike paying your taxes, or moving into a new apartment because your landlord is kicking you out of your current one. More like something to be managed, rather than an object of fascination in its own right. There seems to be something importantly different going on in the psychology of the dedicated space optimists: they are attracted to expansion as such, effervescence, projection, power for power's sake, and most importantly, size.
Literally EVERYTHING ELSE in the universe is out there in space. Whatever you really care about or want, there's more of it out there.
Well, no, there's not much out there right now. Admittedly phenomena like neutron stars are extremely interesting, exotic planet compositions can make planets interesting in their own right even in the absence of life, etc. I am extremely grateful that we have scientists who are dedicated to expanding our knowledge of these phenomena. But in the last analysis, I still don't find these phenomena to be as interesting as other people.
Of course, if we were to discover that there are other conscious intelligent beings in the universe, then everything would change. Suddenly, we may not be the most interesting things in the universe anymore. We would have to make every possible effort to study them, with great haste. But you already said that you think we're probably alone. So it's unclear what you expect to find out there; besides, as already stated, the satisfaction of the utilitarian aim of preserving and multiplying what we already have.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
Earth still produces plenty of geniuses, and indeed plenty of not-genius tier but highly capable engineers, technicians, etc.
benmmurphy
11hr ago
Aliens have been following LLM progress and are involved in their own Butlerian Jihad.
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
11hr ago
Based on a current understanding of physics, the only reason to launch an invasion would be to acquire the population as human capital for empire building
Somehow I doubt our "elite human capital" is that elite. I'd cross that one off.
netstack
Texas is freedom land
11hr ago
I just picked up the first Craig Alanson book, Columbus Day. It’s so painfully self-published. Minimal cover, no logos, I’m not even sure it had a copyright page. And there is a distinct lack of editing. This made more sense when I read the author’s note in the back, in which he expressed shock and delight at the reception for what he described as “talking beer can” novels.
He also wrote about the Amazon self-publishing process. I think it’s pretty neat that was even possible. What would have been a total vanity project in 1970 has shifted more and more towards viability. Not for everyone, but as a way to clear these underserved markets.
But prestige can’t be democratized like publishing. It’s much closer to zero-sum. Every award that goes to a webnovel is one that doesn’t go to an ingroup novel. I don’t just mean that in a CW sense; conventional awards are entwined with conventional publishing, so they’re incentivized to hype up the latter.
Point is, I think the practicality of self-publishing is directly opposed to success in the awards and conventional publishers. It’s a threat.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
It seems worth noting that maga tells Fuentes to take a hike when they notice him at all; the democrats do not react this way to socialists.
Throwaway05
11hr ago
I really appreciated your write up the other week, found it convincing, and reference the contents in arguments with conspiracy minded individuals.
One comment I got was "fine, if Acosta didn't say that why does he refuse to comment under oath."
Any chance you have something I can toss out in response to that?
FistfullOfCrows
11hr ago
I've had talks with some dev friends and they said they did everything in their power to get out of the Skype division once enough indians got into management and middle management positions, those managers would get nothing but indians under them, there was talk of utter retardation and constant slacking, they'll say sure yes, we'll get that done, then turn around and do nothing about it despite what they've been saying and nodding along for the last 5 minutes.
iprayiam3
11hr ago
The shorts would be against whatever companies you think are wasting large sums of money paying people to do nothing
All mid-large companies do this, there's none to short, as it's built in.
as presumably they're very liable to be disrupted by companies with more competitive cost structures
No because it's not a solved problem, it's a scaling and coordination problem. You can't easily pick out which jobs are fake. and which parts of which jobs. It's baked into the growth curve.Smaller companies generally are scrappier, and often cheaper as a result, which is how they compete. As they grow, they become less able to run a tight ship.
Rosencrantz2
11hr ago
It does work but I think to do proper proofreading on an important document, you're going to need to supervise it, feed it your house style etc, and then check all its suggestions, or have someone competent who understands the subject matter do the same. Then you'll probably need to feed all the changes manually into InDesign (an LLM might be integrated into Adobe suite to be fair, I haven't used it lately).
By the time you've done that, maybe you'll have saved some time but I don't see it as that big a deal.
hydroacetylene
12hr ago
Usual science fiction tropes: "they want our water/women/fresh meat" are ludicrous, but there is a possibility
The obvious answer is wanting human capital. Population is the most valuable resource on earth and it’s probably the most valuable resource in space too.
Thoroughlygruntled
12hr ago
I think this may be a bit fatalistic. Most people are averse to conflict and being perceieved as rude, at least when you're phsyically occupying the same space. I've found that simply speaking confidently and (most importantly) not defensively is usually enough to remind everyone that they are, in fact, in mixed company and need to behave like it. A lot of people in these places have literally never spoken to someone who disagrees with them before, and being confronted with a friendly, personable avatar of "the enemy" tends to break their brains and immediately turn you into "one of the good ones" to avoid the cognitive dissonance. The trick is to not get angry and cause them to entrench themselves in defense. You want them to be the asshole who makes things awkward and political, not you.
Obviously this doesn't have a 100% success rate. There are a lot of truly intolerant people out there, but they're the minority. Most people just want to hang out and participate in their hobbies. Standing up to the loudest bullies with a smile on your face is usually enough to force the whole group to moderate its tone.
hydroacetylene
12hr ago
Based on a current understanding of physics, the only reason to launch an invasion would be to acquire the population as human capital for empire building- terraforming is at least an understood problem and the dark forest theory is more easily resolved by WMD’s than boots on the ground invasion.
Therefore any potential invaders can be negotiated with, and it’s not worth worrying about.
Now why would they do that?
More options
Context Copy link