domain:dualn-back.com
FiveHourMarathon
The Gun Would Go Off
11m ago
Martino goes into this extensively in the book. While a lot of other teams were engaged in sign-stealing using replay rooms that bordered on illegal, but concludes that none were as extensive or as team-supported as the Astros.
I do think the Astros were also disliked for hitting "betray" on Baseball culture in other ways. The Lastros era was the worst MLB example of open tanking, which is a disease on American sport which I truly hope teams adopt the obvious solutions to solve.
2rafa
23m ago
Disparate Impact is going to be struck down. The GOP pressing the inclusion political party registration, veteran status and religion (Christian etc) in disparate impact laws is one of the smartest things they’ve done recently (not, admittedly, a long list) since it will accelerate their demise.
But in the long term they’re just not viable. They are pushed because explicit quotes were ruled illegal by SCOTUS, but the more they contradict each other (eg disparate impact against hiring Republicans Va disparate impact against hiring minorities) the more the courts are going to be overloaded with an endless series of these cases and SCOTUS is going to have to act. Even though companies may have legally sound defenses to why their new hires are 70% registered diverse Dems but retirees are, say, largely Christian Republicans (age and politics, changing racial demographics, whatever) the sheer onslaught of cases will become unmanageable.
Nybbler will undoubtedly have some kind of blackpilled spiel about why even this is doomed, but it seems to me that, uh, heightening the contradictions of disparate impact is the surest route to tearing it down.
Mottizen
31m ago
I think it suits well as a modern sport since it's largely self-directed, supports a wide range of time slots, Instagram friendly and you can take a friend group of differing ability to participate without direct competition.
NewCharlesInCharge
31m ago
But that would be a very stupid thing to do.
Without the export bans China would have continued to buy instead of build the most advanced process chips for the foreseeable future. We've forced their hand to bet everything on build.
WhiningCoil
32m ago
I think "disparate impact" is a ridiculous standard. The odds that any decision process will return the same results for two groups which differ on all sorts of socio-economic axes seems unlikely.
"Disparate impact" and other "equity" based arguments are farcical on the face. It only ever cuts one way, and the arguments are deployed extremely selectively. They will never, ever, in a million years apply "disparate impact" arguments on which identity groups pay the most taxes or which identity groups are mostly likely to be victims of crime from outside their community. When non-whites outperform whites, they are just better than whites and should be celebrated. When whites outperform non-whites, it's racism and the thumb must be put on the scale.
ulyssessword
37m ago
I don't want AI making hiring decisions, [...] or deciding verdicts in criminal trials. Anything that helps prevent that (even if imperfect and incomplete) is a good thing in my view.
What's better about a person making those decisions? The criteria I can think of (accuracy, speed, interpretability/legibility, compliance with standards) don't always favor human decisionmakers.
(I don't want anyone monitoring what I write on the internet for wrongthink, so I'm with you there)
Mottizen
37m ago
I'd argue there's a third category of some people who just have absurd physical gifts and don't need to be particularly switched on or with it. NBA Centers tend to have more diverse personalities/interests than other positions since they have to be 7-footers to even qualify so the effective pool of potential NBA Centers is small.
I'm a very large person and got to fringe professional academy levels in Rugby. There were only like 10 people in my region who were effectively credible competition for what ended up being 4 low-paid slots on the development pathway. Meanwhile a normal-sized human position was hundreds of people competing for like 5 spots.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
39m ago
You think it's a coincidence that this is when that "man vs. bear" meme popped up?
sarker
Where are the Snowdens of yesteryear?
48m ago
(2) "ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM" MEANS ANY MACHINE-BASED SYSTEM THAT, FOR ANY EXPLICIT OR IMPLICIT OBJECTIVE, INFERS FROM THE INPUTS THE SYSTEM RECEIVES HOW TO GENERATE OUTPUTS, INCLUDING CONTENT, DECISIONS, PREDICTIONS, OR RECOMMENDATIONS, THAT CAN INFLUENCE PHYSICAL OR VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS.
This is not limited to ML, this bill applies to any computer program.
orthoxerox
I realized I can change my flair color to Barbie pink
51m ago
The regulation is bad because even if you remove direct references to age, color, disability, ethnicity, genetic information, limited proficiency in the English language, national origin, race, religion, reproductive health, sex, veteran status and so on, you will still have disparate impact, either because the AI inferred them from oblique references (Latoya Washington living on MLK Boulevard) or because causes of disparate impact correlate with age, color, disability, ethnicity, genetic information, limited proficiency in the English language, national origin, race, religion, reproductive health, sex, veteran status and so on.
The bill opens the doors to non-stop litigation. When a real person or an expert system lower the credit card limit of Latoya Washington living on MLK Boulevard, they leave behind a trail that shows their chain of reasoning worded in a way that pointedly avoids any references to age, color, disability, ethnicity, genetic information, limited proficiency in the English language, national origin, race, religion, reproductive health, sex, veteran status and so on. Everyone knows this and isn't triggered by obvious disparate impact. When the same bank uses an ML model to do the same thing, there's an obvious way in for a lawsuit: disparate impact? check, AI? check, time to sue, good luck proving that your model didn't lower the credit limit because Latoya was black.
Amadan
"I would put a screwdriver through your eyeballs if I could"
52m ago
It is poor form - you can note that you know what someone's biases are and that you expect them to have a certain perspective (I have done so myself, because you're not wrong about @coffee_enjoyer) but don't just jump into a conversation to tell someone "Hey, don't waste your time arguing with this guy." It's the same sort of insufferable thing you see everywhere else on the Internet: "Reminder: JK Rowling is a transphobe, Thou Shalt Not Engage with her!" People talking to @coffee_enjoyer can usually figure out for themselves where he's coming from, he doesn't exactly hide it.
Primaprimaprima
Bigfoot is an interdimensional being
1hr ago
I don't see why regulation is a bad thing here. I don't want AI making hiring decisions, or monitoring what I write on the internet for wrongthink, or deciding verdicts in criminal trials. Anything that helps prevent that (even if imperfect and incomplete) is a good thing in my view.
(You may say that the use of AI in these domains is inevitable and cannot be prevented - but then, why get upset about the regulation in the first place? Why worry about something that you think will have no impact anyway?)
This is the type of vague, awful, impossible regulation that is focused on writing politically correct reports and which actually kills innovation.
I think there should probably be less innovation in this space.
What, specifically, are you worried about losing or missing out on?
Antitheticality
1hr ago
I (American) just returned from my own "first time Japan trip" yesterday - two weeks, mostly in Tokyo, and the good news I can share from my experience is that you're going to have an amazing time regardless of how much or how little planning you put in, there's just no way to lose.
Everybody has already hit the big talking points, so I'll just add that in our experience, the limit on how much fun we were having was how much our feet fucking hurt on any given day. I was wearing serious-business hiking boots (my standard never-fail travel option) and my wife was wearing Hoka sneakers (supposed to be optimized for comfort), but by day 3-4 we were already revising daily plans, buying extra-padded insoles, and aggressively adding more "off-foot" time to the itinerary because we were simply standing and walking too much and our aching feet were making it hard to enjoy exploring. I'm no slouch, either - I hike often, run, and travel internationally ~3-4 times a year and I've never before had to take measures like this. My advice is to take some of your planning time and think carefully about your shoe/insole situation and the "on-foot" stretches of your itinerary so that you aren't caught off guard like us, having to take unplanned hotel room rest breaks to rest your brutalized feet.
Also, while I'm typing, here are the best two restaurants we ate at. Both were very popular (presumably instagram awareness), so you may have to really prioritize/go early if you want to get a table without waiting in line for an hour:
Shin Udon (Shibuya) - The perfect noodle dish??
PST Higashi Abuzu (near Roppongi) - I was baffled at how good this pizza was. Maybe the best I've ever had.
rverghes
1hr ago
That's true. Maybe the shift also is from servers-as-pets to servers-as-cattle.
I just think there's a definite shift between the two types of admin, even if it occurs in parts. And because the change is large enough, we use two different words to describe the jobs.
Primaprimaprima
Bigfoot is an interdimensional being
1hr ago
My actual preference, for here and for every web forum, is to just eliminate upvotes and downvotes entirely.
Occasionally I write an effortpost that gets few or no replies, but still gets a significant number of upvotes. I like having a signal that my post was appreciated, even if no one had anything to actually say in response. It's no fun just screaming into the void.
I think the actual solution is for people to just stop taking downvotes personally. As you point out, all a downvote means in most cases is "I disagree". That's fine! People can disagree! That can be a valuable and useful signal, to know where you stand with regards to the consensus community opinion.
Can the Motte change, and attract a more ideologically diverse user-base, and also make its atmosphere more attractive to people with different and challenging perspectives?
I don't know what concrete steps could be taken to do that at this point, except maybe relaxing moderation somewhat against users who have clearly unpopular opinions. But even then, probably not.
Primaprimaprima
Bigfoot is an interdimensional being
1hr ago
Well, on a personal level I simply don't think that's much of a problem. If someone wants to be in a constant revolving door of one year bans that's fine by me - particularly if it helps decrease the likelihood that we end up permabanning a valued community member.
If you think that sort of system would place an undue burden on the mod team then I respect that, although I don't think a cap of one year on bans would actually add that many more posts to the mod queue, given the small number of users who would likely find themselves in that sort of situation.
quiet_NaN
1hr ago
I think "disparate impact" is a ridiculous standard. The odds that any decision process will return the same results for two groups which differ on all sorts of socio-economic axes seems unlikely.
I mean, I could get behind that some uses of ML in some fields might be unfair. For example, there might be rational economic reasons to discriminate against certain minorities. If Mormons are 10000x more likely to be killed by bears (because bears are murderist racists or something), then it might make economic sense to not hand out loans to Mormons in bear country. Even if the religion of the applicant is not explicitly present in the input data, a neural network could just learn to infer "applicant is a Mormon" from all sorts of proxies like name, place of birth and so on. If we disallow bank directors saying "no Mormons", we should also disallow such NN for consistency. By contrast, just indirectly discriminating against Mormons because their financial situation is worse (perhaps due to all these bear-related funeral expenses) would seem fine to me even though it has a disparate impact.
While it may be useful to force the market away from the economic optimum in certain situations, the idea to apply this to everything seems profoundly silly. If I (male, 40, overweight) were to post nudes on OnlyFans (not that I intend to do so), I am sure that between user rankings and their recommendation engine, I would end up making a lot less than the median OF model. That is a disparate outcome from an algorithm right there. Should I be able to force OF to push my pictures more?
Or say someone decides to run their blog in French because they have "limited proficiency in the English language". Should Google search be allowed to filter that result if people search for English language websites? That is a disparate impact right there!
zeke5123a
1hr ago
I’m not sure that is a fair reading here.
Notwithstanding any of that, the underlying crime (ie the FECA violation) has a knowing and willful standard. So it seems hard to say that an “unlawful means” is accidentally doing something that requires knowledge that something is wrong.
Folamh3
1hr ago
It's not laugh-out-loud funny, but I think it nails a certain "if I don't crack a smile about this, I'll burst into tears" tone that Jewish humour is known for.
Folamh3
1hr ago
I see nothing controversial about this clarification. Slaughterhouse-Five is an absurdist comedy-drama, which uses ridiculous situations, conceits and sci-fi concepts to throw the insanity of war into sharp relief.
AhhhTheFrench
We will sell no wine before its time
1hr ago
For me, a lot of the 'red tribe' vibes come from the openly religious postings and occasionally really in depth wholly religious debates on the finer points of the eucharist. The tales of having religious "awakenings" and the benefits of Mormonism, the just so stories, and the backronyming of reason and logical arguments to fit fantastical superstitious beliefs, the 3 page apologetics diatribes and the constant C. S. Lewis quotes. It boggles my rational mind that people that otherwise seem like coherent thinkers and smart capable motte posters have this glaring blindspot and aren't afraid to wear it as a badge of honor. Atheism is so boring and passe after all. Trad Cath living is the New Hotness.
ControlsFreak
1hr ago
Lots of people see things lots of ways. All hail the mods and all that. As for me and my house, we will read the comments that people cite to justify the way they see things.
aichanuwu
1hr ago
True I forgot entirely about their helicarrier assets focusing entirely on their amphibious docks. Their heavy LSTs are still of dubious seaworthiness for the Taiwan strait, and most countries have abandoned beaching heavy assets for both sea handling and contestation purposes. The last seaborne amphibious assault was Falklands, and that was also conducted with small landers. It is possible that heavy landers of the Type 72 class would be used, but I can assure you that no modern conops envisions using landings like that. The helicarriers may be able to support an assault, but not at any scale.
Scale is what we should be focused on in terms of assessing how China envisions a takeover of Taiwan. Many here have concluded that a prolonged siege is more likely than a direct landing, and Chinese military investment reflects that. Plenty of missiles, surface combatant spam, shore based missile artillery. That Chinese yards can probably spam a few hundred landers in two years is irrelevant compared to what we see them doing directly.
I hold the Chinese military in contempt because the CCP is writing checks it can't cash. Its military force structure is optimized very heavily for defending the mainland and to a lesser extent a painful siege around Taiwan, not contesting US interests in Northeast or Southeast Asia in a meaningful way. The Chinese diplomatic and political rhetoric posits Chinas place as a current rival to USA, prepared to threaten strategic US interests overseas and even domestic to the USA. That is patently ridiculous, since the Chinese cannot project force even to Kinmen much less to Taiwan, Korea or Japan. The only entity Chinese mass-heavy force structure is optimized to fight against is Russia and the 'stans and to a lesser extent Vietnam. The Himalayas is impassable, Best Korea is a dumpster fire, Burma is an impassable jungle.
The Chinese military does have extensive threats that should not be discounted. Chinese shore based missile spam is a real threat, and they could theoretically spam Dongfengs although that does not seem to be their direction of investment. if the Chinese were more adept they would leverage on economic and political leverage to secure southeast Asia and isolate USA from Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. That the Chinese choose instead to drive potential alloes into the arms of the US is the fault of their arrogant and frankly incompetent diplomatic establishment having made the PLA its bottom bitch.
4bpp
このMOLOCHだ！
1hr ago
Good point about the speed at which it would happen - I didn't consider that it could only amount to a "debris threshold passed now leads to inescapable exponential growth that will reach the point that no sats survive for long in 10 years" scenario.
I do however doubt that either of Russia and China would be particularly concerned about the damage loss of international space capabilities would do to their remaining allies (Google Maps? Degradation of weather forecasts? Loss of landsat-type commercial imagery?) if they are in an existential-ish struggle against the US. All of those sound to me like they would be minor relative to the effects of disturbances to the financial system and supply chains such a war would impose on everyone either way.
I listen to very little new music overall, so you're probably right: if I listened to more unfiltered Top-40 I would probably hate most of that much more than I hate a lot of modern country. Music essentially gets added to my library from the local college radio station, from my gym friends, from my wife. The only time I'm listening to unfiltered new music is when my father is listening to country radio while we drive somewhere.
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