domain:worksinprogress.co
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
3m ago
I don't think that Buddhism as such will become that important, but Buddhist stuff will continue to percolate to what could be called "Western folk religion" (compare to Chinese folk religion), ie the mix of vague Christian remnant beliefs, New Age / occult influences, Eastern influences, (often imagined) Western pagan stuff, superstitions, pseudoscience, modern cults like UFO/UAP enthusiasts and QAnon etc ec. that really characterizes what many "secular" people (and some ostensible trad religion believers) actually believe in, at least at some level. Perhaps at some point something new will come out of this mix.
The Catholic church cares and a bunch of traditional Christian churches and systems of morality care. A lot of Churches forbid masturbation and have shame circles where men confess to masturbating and try not to do it. I don't think the Catholics go that far but masturbation is still considered a sin.
Also while in traditional cultures the bride might not care if the groom is a virgin. She will care if he's a known womanizer because she wants him to be faithful to her after the wedding.
2rafa
12m ago
the supposed trend of people converting to Catholicism is mostly a few high-profile examples
Right, interestingly it mirrors a longstanding trend in England of edgier intellectuals (of both the right and left) who want something a little more esoteric and different converting to Catholicism, which has been a thing for a couple of hundred years.
MayorofOysterville
20m ago
I think America particularly will become more and more secular. I think that the TradCath community will grow but will end up like the Amish or Hasidics. I think the majority will be secularish. Axial age religions are not they only religious framework and Science can replace a lot of what pre-axial religions are very mechanistic and less concerned with morality. Sumerian religion barely had an afterlife and in that sense was rather athiestic. China was morally guided by philosophy more than religion for thousands of years. I don't think a retvrn to societies centered on moralistic religions promising eternal bliss is a given. The intense religiosity of the Middle Ages and Early Modern period seem to be something of an outlier.
I could see a kind of Progressivism as a unifying philosophy combined with many different faiths ala Confucianism. We can see this a little bit with woke people today they don't care what religion you are as long as your beliefs are subservient to woke tenants.
MayorofOysterville
31m ago
Not being against the Gays is one of the more salient points. Christianity being seen as anti-Gay has significantly harmed it's worth as a moral philosophy to modern western people. Also why the texts of Christianity are very anti materialist it tends not to be seen that way in the US.
MayorofOysterville
38m ago
Hey I appreciate your response I was pretty disappointed when my effort post didn't show up forever so glad to know you at least saw it!. For what it's worth I think despite all the time it gets holocaust education in the West is pretty bad and pretty much any thinking person is going to have them based in the high school curriculum version of it we get taught. I spend a fair amount of time on /r/askhistorians and the amount of liberals with massive doubts about the holocaust is pretty telling. Well not doubts exactly they tepidly come in writing paragraphs of disclaimers about how they believe the official story but there are massive gaps where the tory they've been told makes no sense. Most true deniers start here as well and they are almost always arguing against the version they were taught in high school. IE the camps separated out of all context and a lot of myths thrown in combined with strawman version of Nazi ideology.
Most teachers are unwilling/incapable and probably just a little scared to actually explain Nazi ideology and goals and the Eastern Front is severely undertaught and without either of those the Holocaust narrative taught doesn't actually add up. and there are tons and tons of "Good Liberals" with those same doubts they are just to scared to voice them for fear of being labeled a denier. I actually think one of the reasons people get so hysterical when the Holocaust gets even slightly questioned is because many of them can't counter skeptical arguments at all so they are just running off pure emotion.
NewCharlesInCharge
58m ago
If religion is transmissible and religious individuals are more fertile than the irreligious then it seems inevitable that the secular will be simply outbred, no?
Winning “converts” to secularism is a small tactical victory if they go on to have fewer than two children.
SkoomaDentist
1hr ago
Not if you want to keep highly skilled researchers and programmers working for you as it would mean locking down the systems so hard that it makes daily work a chore and the sorts of people you need for that level of work hate working under such restrictions.
anti_dan
1hr ago
She was white-passing Hispanic. She had a scholarship, and was living for free in the house of a Christian couple that let underprivileged youth sleep in their spare rooms while she went to school. Her parents were working, but were too far away from the school and not in a financial position to really help her pay for things.
This is why "noticing" and hunches are informative. What we actually have is a Hispanic girl at a school that probably is a reach school for an equally talented white kid, and certainly not one where they get a scholarship. She's a fish out of water by design of the admissions office who wanted to fill out some numbers that make them feel good.
I'm sure you're right that it is relatively rare, but my stint working as a home caregiver for the eldery also showed me a lot of sad tales. Old people with mobility issues or parkinson's who don't really have a lot going for them: They can't do their hobbies because of their broken bodies and deteriorating minds, their kids or grandkids have often cut them off and live far away, and they just get ferried from doctor's appointments to physical therapy until they die a slow, sad lingering death. It is hard when you're someone's only lifeline, and you're only there because you're being paid far too little for the amount of shit you're putting up with.
I am sadly well aware of this line of work because of the large number of criminals and scammers who go into the work. For the hard workers it is indeed a tough row to hoe. But its also full of abuse by just people exploiting the government.
Kevin_P
1hr ago
A bit of a late reply but it includes all types of schools. If you dig into the data there's a division between academic and vocational streams. It doesn't include kids that have completely dropped out of school though, which is relevant for some countries.
urquan
Hold! What you are doing to us is wrong! Why do you do this thing?
2hr ago
For example there are a fair number of converts to orthodoxy that seem to push for rebapism as if they’re joining a new religion.
This isn’t an orthodox convert-generated phenomenon; there’s a longstanding (as in centuries) dispute in Orthodox praxis over whether converts from other Christian traditions should be baptized. The general trend is to say ‘no’, but this is supported by a theological view that generally argues baptism is not grace-filled unless the baptizer is an Orthodox individual, preferably a priest or deacon. Most converts to Orthodoxy are received by chrismation, the term for what is called confirmation in Catholic parlance, which is given great significance as a means of completing baptism in Orthodox theology. The view is that chrismation back-fills grace into a baptism that was performed outside the Orthodox Church. But the view of Orthodoxy generally is that non-Orthodox baptisms aren’t really baptisms, in the strict mystical sense they believe is significant.
The reason converts sometimes push for a rebaptism is because there are some Orthodox rigorists — most notably Mount Athos, one of the holiest monasteries in Orthodox culture — that will interrogate converts and refuse communion to those who were not baptized Orthodox and instead received by chrismation. The converts are trying to deal with an unfortunate situation by aiming for what’s universally accepted, so that no one will have grounds to reject their reception into the Orthodox Church. It’s the rigorists’ fault, not the converts’.
The best comparison point would be Baptists — who, of course, believe that someone baptized as an infant should be baptized instead as an adult, and that infant baptisms aren’t ‘real’. They couple that with a less mystical and more symbolic interpretation of baptism, but nevertheless they believe that other Christian groups are doing baptism wrong in certain cases and that those who were incorrectly baptized ought to be baptized in the proper way, even if that means repeating it. While Catholics and magisterial Protestants have long agreed on baptismal validity, Baptists and Orthodox stand outside that consensus for different reasons.
So it’s not really about the converts hating the old forms of Christianity they grew up in — though that certainly can be a part of an individual’s psychology — and more a serious theological dispute within Orthodoxy about proper baptismal practice that they’re trying to navigate based on conscience. As with everything, the Official Orthodox Answer is “be received however your priest says you should.”
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2hr ago
Sorry, misunderstood you. I don't think we've seen anyone seriously defend having stolen or distilled someone's model. My bet is the precedent will depend on who/whom and lawyer muscle rather than fundamentals of the situation.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
2hr ago
How else could they achieve this result if their talent wasn't superior? Or if not talent, then the juice in an organization that allows good results at speed.
How small and relatively inexperienced Chinese labs do so much with so little is an interesting question. I have the impression that Western corporations overestimate “frontier talent”, or perhaps paradoxically – underestimate actual, raw talent (that isn't that rare, just needs to be noticed) and overestimate the value of corporate secrets that some of this legendary talent is privy to. Liang Wenfeng hires Ph.D students and they seem to do better than mature Ph.Ds.
H20s are useless for training, China will have to figure that part out on their own. Although the current RL paradigm is more and more reliant on inference (rollouts of agent trajectories, Kimi is built on that), so H20s will indirectly advance capabilities. Yet there remains a need for pretraining next generation bases, and of course experiments.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
2hr ago
I would be considered a conservative Catholic, probably a borderline or "light" tradcath. I'm personally quite against the closed religious communities you describe. My plan is to move to a conservative area to live around people who share my religion and philosophy and to influence my surrounding community to make it increasingly hospitable to those who share my beliefs. For institutions that are simply too rotten, I will support setting up parallel institutions, but whenever possible I will for example vote for a hardcore tradcath public school board (and contribute to Catholic after school programs) instead of working to found new Catholic schools from scratch. As has been pointed out many times here and elsewhere, closed-off religious communities are able to exist only due to the benign neglect of the Eye of Sauron's. Concentrating your people in a single place and in unsanctioned institutions leaves them vulnerable to dispersal and reeducation by carpetbaggers. But if your religion is simply woven into the background culture of the area and infused into its public institutions, it's a lot harder to suppress. The religious should emulate Dearborn or the Free State Project, not the Mennonites. Entryism is the way.
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
2hr ago
Coding has greatly improved. Vibe-coding in 2023 was a bleak experience, one could hardly get anything done. In 2025 it's easy.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
2hr ago
I have a half-formed thought about this. There are certain simple ideas whose implications are so profound and perspective-shifting that they essentially colonize a person's entire mind. I stress that these are simple ideas -- Christianity and classical liberalism are profound sets of ideas, but they are too complex for the average person to immediately filter everything in their lives through them. Simpler ideas are different, though -- it's easy to filter everything you experience or hear about through simple ideas like "the invisible oppression of the white man/Jew/etc is keeping good people down" or "the end times are nigh" or "the NAP is all that matters" or "the scientific method is the only valid source of knowledge" or "all social problems is rooted in class struggle" whatever.
I think that fixation on a single idea like this is actually a very mild form of mental illness, even the generally "respectable" ideas I included above (harcore libertarianism, communism, scientism). People get stuck on an idea and it becomes their entire, 1-dimensional universe. G.K.Chesteron has a great passage on this:
The madman's explanation of a thing is always complete, and often in a purely rational sense satisfactory. Or, to speak more strictly, the insane explanation, if not conclusive, is at least unanswerable; this may be observed specially in the two or three commonest kinds of madness. If a man says (for instance) that men have a conspiracy against him, you cannot dispute it except by saying that all the men deny that they are conspirators; which is exactly what conspirators would do. His explanation covers the facts as much as yours. Or if a man says that he is the rightful King of England, it is no complete answer to say that the existing authorities call him mad; for if he were King of England that might be the wisest thing for the existing authorities to do. Or if a man says that he is Jesus Christ, it is no answer to tell him that the world denies his divinity; for the world denied Christ's.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2hr ago
The Anthropic case there is focused on "Is it a copyright violation to train models on copyrighted data without licensed distribution?", which is an interesting question, but my comment is more on the separate "Is the resulting model I've trained something I can claim copyright over?" question.
No_one
2hr ago
And we should arm Ukraine and Israel to the teeth to unleash on Russian and Iran.
Arm with what? The only thing US has plenty of are mothballed Abrams and Bradley vehicles. There isn't even enough ammo for Abrams tanks. Right now, you can't even give Ukrainians air defenses to keep their skies clear of drones. You can't even supply them with artillery shells, or enough newly built military hardware - because it doesn't exist. Even though it was obvious in fall of '23 that Ukraine will get nowhere with what it has, little has been done.
US forgot to develop an industry capable of either innovating and mass producing useful weapons.
'Arming Ukraine' to take on Russia is basically a dream. Maybe if you gave them all Tomahawks (2000, yearly procurement.. 60?) you have, and enough launchers (which you don't have, there's like one prototype ground battery) they could blow up a Kremlin tower and 5% of Russian industry. Russia is now making in two months as many drones as NATO makes guided anti-air missiles in a year. Of all types. (from Patriots through AIM-120/AIM-9 down to humble Pioruns. )
Any normal military industrial complex would have developed something, say, a cheap rocket-takeoff pulsejet drone, easily capable of outrunning a Geran and blowing it up with a decent range. Nah - best Ukrainians do is battery powered interceptor drones (I'm not even sure such can keep up with it it much so very limited range, batteries truly suck)
Yeah, sure, there's APKWS and Ukraine has F-16, but somehow, those drones are not getting intercepted even though they could easily be bc Russian SAM doesn't cover areas >100 km beyond the front. The Gerans are still raining on Lviv etc and there are no videos of F-16s taking them down even though theoretically, an F-16 could take down 28, so 10 planes could, in ideal conditions, take down an entire wave of Geran drones.
Honestly, if you squint your eyes a little, once Russians win in Ukraine, them taking over the Baltics becomes a possibility. No, I don't believe F-35s would be able to waltz through their air defences on day 1 at will and range 500 km inland to take out all missile / drone launchers.
All of this is to say that, even with the faults of "the way liberal democracy functions in practice," we still have it pretty good in the US.
Unsustainable budget deficits, endlessly accumulating debt, a very serious political situation, where one party is huffing glue and the other is full of not very competent people now ? It doesn't look good.
I was consistently skeptical that China can win this on HBD merits alone, after all the US also has plenty of talented people (very many of them Chinese, but also diverse global and domestic talent), in Nvidia and elsewhere, plus it has a giant and growing edge in compute.
Fair enough, I agree on that. I didn't think you were saying that talent conquers all in this but one can kind of see it reading between the lines. How else could they achieve this result if their talent wasn't superior? Or if not talent, then the juice in an organization that allows good results at speed.
And it seems like export controls are diminishing, per latest news on H20s. But maybe Trump will do another backflip, who can say.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3hr ago
It usually involves taking a chapter from my novel and asking it to imagine it in a style from a different author I like.
Yes, many models (even open ones, such as R1) have better adherence to instructions. It writes well in its own style. I value models with distinct personalities. You're right about Russianness I think.
I've heard that they tried to buy-out Thinking Machines and SSI for billions, but were turned down
They've proposed that to even much smaller labs, though I'm not at liberty to share. Zuck is desperate and defaults to his M&A instincts that have served him well. It might work in dismantling the competition, at least. But it's not like Meta and FAIR were originally lacking in talent, they've contributed immensely to research (just for instance, MTP in DeepSeek V3 is based on their paper; Llama 4 somehow failed to implement it). The problem is managerial. To get ahead, I'm afraid Zuck will need to cut, rather than graft.
P-Necromancer
3hr ago
Your so-and-so’s heir is the most important thing about you no matter what you do.
This is an odd framing: that heir has a (great great...) grandfather as well as grandmother. There is only one of you and (potentially) many of your progeny, so it's overwhelmingly likely that the most important thing about any given man will be his children too. And a woman (or a man) can trivially escape this 'shadow' by not having children, which is in the modern day very much an option.
I suppose the distinction is meant to be that women invest more in their children? Or that that investment has more of an impact? Or are less likely to be important otherwise?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3hr ago
But Grok 4 just crushes with sheer size I think.
The fact that Grok is at all comparable (or indeed inferior) to Kimi on any metric, even the most obscure one, speaks to the deep cultural advantage of Moonshot. Grok 4's training compute is estimated to be 6.4e26 FLOPs; Kimi, like R1, is likely ≈4.0e24, fully 100 times less. They probably spent on scaling experiments for Grok 3/4 more than Moonshot has spent over their lifetime on everything. It's not really a fair competition, I admit Grok is a stronger model.
It was designed for Musk's vision of AI modelling and understanding the physical universe, that's what it's for and it does excellently there.
I think it wasn't designed with any specific focus in mind, it's an all around next-generation base+RL model.
I think the arc of history still bends towards Nvidia, the biggest company in the world and by some distance. I think like you I was leaning more towards the 'talent conquers all' ethos
You distort my argument. I was consistently skeptical that China can win this on HBD merits alone, after all the US also has plenty of talented people (very many of them Chinese, but also diverse global and domestic talent), in Nvidia and elsewhere, plus it has a giant and growing edge in compute. My thesis is that the gap in applied AI possibly won't be so profound as to allow some Pivotal Action To Secure Durable Strategic Advantage, that the hawks in DC and Dario Amodei fantasize about as they rail for more export controls. Nvidia will remain dominant, so will Western AI labs.
But so far China is doing better than I anticipated, both technically and ethically.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3hr ago
In regard to Zhilin's words, if I may psychologize a little, I think that it's very natural for a Chinese person with close knowledge of and experience with Western ideas and societies - but also an attachment to an identity as Chinese - to conceptualize things in terms of a dichotomy between East and West
If that is how the Chinese actors themselves conceptualize this, does it matter if we can object to such thinking as historically reductionist and stereotypical? Yes, obviously both types exist in both societies. (At least Zhilins exist in the US; if there are Liangs, I'd be happy to see them. Lambert is an academic, not a hedge fund CEO who also somehow happens to be a great engineer and an open source fanatic. The closest we had was Emad Mostaque, neither exactly Western nor very technical or good at being a CEO). But it is clear that the Chinese discourse, particularly in the VC sphere, maps pragmatic and idealistic archetypes onto the East-West dichotomy. Half of Liang's interview is the journalist saying “but this is madness, nobody does it, nobody will give the money for it” and Liang saying “and yet we must learn to do it, because crazy Westerners do and that is how they create things we've been imitating all this time” .
But since it's not a matter of "deep roots," it makes sense that a single breakout success like DeepSeek could precipitate a shift in orientation. … To go far afield of my knowledge, it seems as though these extrinsic factors might end up being better for China than for the US.
I agree this is a possibility, and I think it's one of the more interesting cultural trends to track, which is why I'm writing these updates. Deep roots or not, Chinese fast-following is more than a subtly racist trope, it really is the backbone of their economic ascendance. If they start similarly rewarding high-risk innovation, it'll change the gameboard a great deal.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3hr ago
Well, I don't really understand American law but it seems to me that Anthropic has set the precedent of LLM pretraining corpora being essentially immune to copyright claims. Anthropic's models are, ironically, the most paranoid about reproducing copyrighted material.
My understanding is that the situation with American Orthodoxy is that there's a fair amount of new fervent converts, at least compared to the previous baseline, but the general trend of secularization is also causing people from traditional immigrant communities (Greeks, Russians, Serbs) to drop out, and that they thus far balance each other out. However, if this continues, at some point the growth in new convert-run parishes could be expected to overtake the secularization process, especially if there are marriages and natural growth (though that might require appeal beyond the current category of young men...)
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