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No, you can't 'provide a bomb'.

It'd be obvious from the fallout where the bomb was from and you would end up being treated the same as if you had fired it yourself.

Good, didn't know about this.

Great way to promote ambiguity, though only very naive people will fall for it.

He's gone on record on videos saying he's not African American since he's Indian. We joke about identifying as a Hispanic Trans person on college admission forms and this guy actually did it, unsuccessfully. Not the Trans part.

That's what I am saying.

But the only way to do it is thermonuclear weapons.

20*20 kilotons on Israel would be catastrophic but it'd be survivable for Israel.

It'd not be survivable for Iranian government.

100*400 kilotons would destroy Israel, possibly even partially prevent retaliation.

That's the moment when Iran would have true deterrence and MAD with Israel.

Being able to wound the enemy and then assuredly die is not deterrence.

Zohran Mamdani, who claimed to be black to get into Columbia and is probably going to face zero consequences for it.

Ironically, this could be called a lie. Per the NYT article

But as a high school senior in 2009, Mr. Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, claimed another label when he applied to Columbia University. Asked to identify his race, he checked a box that he was “Asian” but also “Black or African American,” according to internal data derived from a hack of Columbia University that was shared with The New York Times.

This is a man born in Uganda, and lived in South Africa through his early life.

Whether or not he's African American, and likewise with similar non-black Africa > America immigrants is a difficult question given that he literally is an African who became an American, and it's really hard to even think of an alternate term to call them along the lines of what we would call other groups! Like do we say "African-place Americans" instead to make the distinction clear? I'm not sure what the alternative even is here, we clearly don't have an established alternative.

This is realistically more the fault of terrible and misleading categories that are culturally outdated. It is weird, unintuitive and often nonsensical nowadays that Black people who have been living in South America or Europe for generations are considered "African" but someone literally from Africa isn't. And it makes for an interesting question, why do we call them African until they move then?

And if we want to say "well that's because they were originally African" or something, then it's a rather arbitrary cutoff that originally only applies to the great grandparent or great great grandparent or great great great grandparent (depending on the person's particular heritage) but is also a moving definition that applies to the great(x4).grandparent next and so on and so forth to where you could be great(x20) grandparent heritage now and be African but someone with great(X2) heritage now isn't, and also doesn't include we're all from Africa originally so why is there a cutoff to begin with them? It doesn't make things much less confusing or weird.

but have you seen the other Commonwealth states

Have you seen the UK handing the Chagos over to Mauritius these last two months and paying for the privilege? That is just as, or even more, cucked. What happened to the spirit of Wellington or Mccaulay?

For all the UK's faults there is no doubt they would run the place more efficiently than the Mauritians ever could.

Accurate. There is a cultural and probably (my theory) genetic temperament that makes whites share and care. Think European killing Winters in the old days.

Beyond this its performative luxury beliefs. Rich whiteys living in gated communities that will never need to deal with the consequences of their actions.

Happy to be corrected by others.

The second person (narrative voice) in a story is very interesting. I tried it once many years ago after reading Bright Lights, Big City. Thanks for sharing, I like reading things like this. I have no answer to your question. Probably I'd be intransigent and not cooperate just because, but that could be mental bravado.

Couldn't your conclusion that 'If Hamas manages to get an attack off it's the entire host nations problem as well' apply to Iran giving them a nuke in the first place? Couldn't Israel just state preemptively they will regard any use of nukes by hamas as use by Iran and will nuke Tehran in response? In this case would the Iranian regime be willing to chain themselves to asa suicidal ally and provide Hamas with bombs in the first place?

I don't think having a suicidal ally changes the logic of mutually assured destruction much. That relies on your enemy drawing some arbitrary distinction that doesn't serve their interests.

Possibly from Yoorrook's perspective the idea is just to open with a maximal demand that they can then negotiate down from; or possibly it's to deliberately make demands that cannot possibly be satisfied so that there will remain a need for activists in this space.

I have an informed source in this general area. According to my friend, the indigenous lobby generally is full of maximalists, they've always been into maximalism and word-games to achieve maximal gains rather than good-faith bargaining. That's what they've been doing with 'sovereignty never ceded', they've been treating it like a slogan for people to say and feel good about. Universities don't actually mean that the Australian government is not sovereign and Eora tribe is in control when they say it. They just mean 'I'm progressive and left wing and a Good Person'. But it's a way of seeding the idea that the government isn't actually in control for further usage later on. If you say it and repeat it enough, it becomes true.

There are similar games being played with 'First Nations'. Nation means race or ethnic group in English but it can also mean state. They wanted to insert into the constitution, IIRC, recognition of First Nations and they said 'oh this is just for aesthetic purposes, recognition, just being a Good Person'. This got watered down in the public referendum question since the more sensible white lawyers saw through this immediately, but that's what the activists wanted. Later on, when there's a friendly High Court, the idea was to reimagine it to meaning First Nations as a political entity still around today, so then they can get a Treaty and even more gains. There's no such thing as a compromise with these people (exceptions exist obviously), only an endless struggle.

The difficulty is that a determined person could easily maintain their allegiance without overt signs especially in service to a greater cause. If I’m a person allied to hezbollah I don’t want the USA to know that, and especially if I’m joining a cell in the USA. If all I have to do is hide my allegiance to hezbollah for three years, I can probably scrub my name from official records, purge my social media, and keep my mouth shut for three years and be fine.

Out of boredom, I'm using Gemini to make a mortar calculator app that takes in screenshots/grid coordinates and outputs firing solutions. Should work in theory!

I expect that when people usually say that, they're implicitly stating strong belief that the problems are both solvable and being solved. Not that this necessarily means that such claims are true..

If you're a Windows user, and seeking a more power-user experience, I strongly endorse Windows PowerToys. While not an official Microsoft product, it's a passion project by Microsoft devs. Current features:

  • Advanced Paste
  • Always on Top
  • PowerToys Awake
  • Color Picker
  • Command Not Found
  • Command Palette
  • Crop And Lock
  • Environment Variables
  • FancyZones
  • File Explorer Add-ons
  • File Locksmith
  • Hosts File Editor
  • Image Resizer
  • Keyboard Manager
  • Mouse utilities
  • Mouse Without Borders
  • New+
  • Paste as Plain Text
  • Peek
  • PowerRename
  • PowerToys Run
  • Quick Accent
  • Registry Preview
  • Screen Ruler
  • Shortcut Guide
  • Text Extractor
  • Workspaces
  • ZoomIt

I personally get some mileage out of the FancyZones feature, as it's a big upgrade over default window tiling manager. With a 4k screen, it's a shame not to use the real estate to its fullest potential. I can see the pixel counter being useful in Arma Reforger, where you need to measure distances on a map, cheeky mortar calculator right there.

Fair enough. So in your proposed libertarian world, you would not automatically have the right to sue for breach of contract, damages, or debt? Unless these things turned out to be foundational.

Fair enough, I thought those things were more central to libertarian ideology.

There's some breakdown in communication as he wants a smaller, less powerful government where there are some things the government does. Smaller societies earlier were dependent on elders enforcing laws via the guys.

When he argues agaisnt hard drugs, it's from the perspective of that implementation in the current apparatus. It's not a bad one, he also has written agaisnt government interference, that's one of his most famous articles.

I'd rather have the government crack down on what he listed instead of hate speech.

The IRA is listed there too, but they were not enemies of America and indeed were partly funded by American groups.

My point is not that the problems are unsolvable (jury's out on that), it's that "this will be good if we can fix the problems" isn't a very meaningful statement. Everything is good if you can fix the problems with it!

Is it possible that they worked with government to produce this? As you say, it allows the activists to perpetuate themselves but it also produces sympathy and understanding for the government. More reasonable proposals might have been harder to scotch.

You know, the UK gets plenty of flak for its groveling attitude towards anyone with a slightly different shade of skin and the most threadbare justification behind seeking reparations for past injustice, but have you seen the other Commonwealth states? Australia and NZ are so cucked it beggars belief.

They all seem to cling on to a form of DEI that's about a decade out of date, at least compared to the US, and even there, it was never as strong and all-encompassing.

What even drives people to such abject and performative self-flagellation?

Well, they've gotten better and better over time. I've been using LLMs before they were cool, and we've probably seen between 1-2 OOM reduction in hallucination rates. The bigger they get, the lower the rate. It's not like humans are immune to mistakes, misremembering, or even plain making shit up.

In fact, some recent studies (on now outdated models like Claude 3.6) found zero hallucinations at all in tasks like medical transcription and summarization.

It's a solvable problem, be it through human oversight or the use of other parallel models to check results.

Given the two attempts at invasion/annexation in 10 years (one of them ongoing) it seems reasonable that the Ukrainians would not want ZZ-niks working in thier country, voting in thier elections, etc.

Remember that we are talking about naturalization here IE whether or not we let a person in, and once in, how much of an obligation is there to let them stay.

If they can stop the damn thing from hallucinating caselaw and statutes, it might already be there.

Sure, but hasn't that always been the challenge? This feels like it boils down to "if they can fix the problems, it'll be great", which is true but applies to everything.

I think it would be fair to say that Point 2 is smuggling in the idea that it is not a social project, but it appears to me that it is in fact a social project. Civilization is nothing if not a social project and so defending its key cornerstone must also be a social project, I would think. That would then make Point 3 contradictory, as libertarians would appear to be just as willing as anyone else to deploy violence for their social project.

Which would seem to indicate that this:

Its all just special pleading by each specific author on why their specific social project deserves an exception.

is a statement that applies just as well to libertarianism.

Here are some topics I'm looking at this week; as a draft of the Sentinel minutes. Curious to get thoughts.

Geopolitics

Americas

Bill Gates warns about the lives lost because of US aid cuts, though he relies on a study on The Lancet

USAID programs now being run by State Department as agency ends operations

Mr. Abrego's Account of Torture at CECOT in El Salvador

Europe

Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says

613 killed at Gaza aid distribution sites, near humanitarian covoys, says UN

North Korea to send 30,000 more troops to help Russia fight Ukraine

Over 210,000 Russians signed contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says

Middle East

Iran

United States expands military base in Saudi Arabia

A military base has been established by the U.S. near the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, with construction beginning in early 2022. The base, known as the 'Jenkins Logistics Support Base,' has been quietly growing and is strategically located 30 kilometers from a significant Saudi port, suggesting preparations for a prolonged military conflict with Iran. Recent updates show substantial expansion since last year, including new buildings and enhanced security measures, alongside a continuous necessity for U.S. military supplies in response to escalating tensions in the region, such as Iran's attacks on military assets.

Iran Halts Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog

US says its strikes degraded Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years

Iran president Pezeshkian reportedly orders to suspend cooperation with IAEA

US must rule out more strikes before talks can resume: Iran

US lawmakers seek to send B-2s, bunker busters to Israel if Iran takes nuclear path

Gaza

Gaza starvation killings: UN says deliberately shot hungry civilians

Gaza: Over 400 Palestinians killed around private aid hubs, UN rights office says

Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal

Donald Trump Says Israel Agrees to 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire

Yemen

Asia

Satellite evidence points to heightened operations at N. Korean nuclear site

North Korea's uranium refinery in Pyongsan has shown increased activity amidst ongoing efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Utilizing satellite imagery and thermal infrared analysis, recent findings indicate that operations at the facility have intensified, particularly at night, with the facility's waste management practices also experiencing notable changes. The site consists of three main zones: a uranium mine, a refining factory, and a settling pond for wastewater, all of which are reportedly well-fortified against potential air strikes, though concerns over their effectiveness persist.

Analysis reveals that the Pyongsan facility is the only operational uranium refinery in North Korea following the reported closure of another site in Pakchon. An uptick in wastewater release into the settling pond has been detected, raising environmental concerns ahead of the rainy season. Additionally, alarming reports of a mysterious illness affecting local workers and residents have prompted calls for a thorough investigation into the health impacts and environmental conditions surrounding the refinery.

India/Pakistan

Bangladesh tribunal hands 6-month jail term in first verdict against Hasina

Africa

Looming funding shortfall could reverse global progress against AIDS, warns UNAIDS chief

200 Christians killed in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen

Suspected Boko Haram insurgents step up attacks in Nigeria

Congo, M23 rebels plan return to Qatar talks amid Trump pressure

Bio

Tech and AI

Global Economy

Early Fed chair nomination could rattle markets - Reuters

World Bank warns that 39 fragile states are falling further behind as conflicts grow, get deadlier

Misc

Reversal in ocean circulation

Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean

Two people perish in Spain's heatwave