domain:natesilver.net
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
21hr ago
I don’t think that the meaning is self evidently the same as originalism. There are other ways to derive intent that don’t come directly from the written text of the constitution or case law or any other written all.
The first amendment says “Congress will make no law establishing a religion or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.” The plain meaning is “no state church, and congress (NB: only one branch of government is mentioned in the text). So what does religion mean, in this context? What does free exercise mean in this context? What happens if Trump issues an executive order enjoining the entire country to the Orthodox Church in America? The text actually doesn’t say anything about executive orders. So you’d have to look to other things: what kinds of things were the people debating the bill saying about the bill, what were they trying to prevent from happening? What did they say when trying to sell the Bill of Rights to the People? What did early case law say about things like various states having official churches? What did they think religion means? These things are not plain reading of the meaning of the text. (Which, going only by the text, only prevents Congress from passing a law to make a National Religion or to forbid a religion from being practiced. That’s what the meaning of the words on the paper say.”
SecureSignals
Training the Aryan LLM
21hr ago
It should also be noted that Noel Ignatiev regarded anti-semitism as a "Crime against humanity." So according to Harvard professor Ignatiev there's a moral impetus to abolish the white race by any means necessary, but anti-semitism is a Crime against Humanity. The surge of anti-semitism is caused by the Noticing of this bitterly hostile social consensus. The actions of Israel are going a long way in revealing this social consensus for what it is.
stuckinbathroom
21hr ago
“It’s a pity they can’t both lose”
—Henry Kissinger (well known far-right Jew, referring to a war between Muslim states)
No_one
21hr ago
These are not really comparable, method or cohort wise. Postal survey is probably biased towards bored old people..
Also it's strongly suggestive that on the link paper claims length of exposure to finasteride was correlated with the ED..
ABigGuy4U
21hr ago
North Korea was a strategically located part of the communist bloc, which made them pretty tight with the Soviet Union and China. So they weren’t really in too much danger until the beginning of the 90s, and only in critical danger after 9/11. The Kims realized this and made a successful attempt at nuclear breakout.
hanikrummihundursvin
21hr ago
It's well known that the far right loves jews because jews love killing muslims. I don't see what's surprising here. The horseshoe theory is right yet again.
Wait a minute...
Tree
21hr ago
I would view subsidized farmers like an army: in good times, a waste of money, but in bad times, essential to the sovereignty of the nation.
That’s what they want you to think. This lobby group is so powerful because it has arguments tailored for all kinds of people. To greens they say they preserve the ecology, the meadows and all the little birdies. To conservatives, the character of the land, the connection to ancestors, they eat that shit up. To social democrats they emphasize the need to safeguard their jobs from the destructive forces of the market. And to greys, they play the strategic food reserve card.
but unlike food and trained fighters, you can stockpile petrochemicals just fine
Why can't you store food? Let’s do some back of the envelope math: CAP budget is 55B/year, with germany shouldering 25%, that’s 13B, that’s €0.45 per german per day in subsidies.
That’s imo a large underestimate of alll the subsidies they get. Most peasants I know build a house on their land, which they can then sell for a large profit, because normal people do not get to build a house on cheap agri land without tons of red tape. When a piece of my grandparents’ land was declared constructible, it was like winning the lottery to them. Plus the tariffs and all the protections they get and all the problems those protections cause. Like the japanese customer who pays to subsidy the rice, then pays a higher price for it, then pays again to buy some other rice that gets destroyed to compensate WTO partners. A significant share of EU-US trade disputes, like every trade dispute, are caused by farmer lobby duels.
So let’s double the estimate to 90 cents/day/person. I think you can feed a man for about 9 cents/day on non-perishable (conserves and such) goods. Because you can feed a man for one day for 5 cents in vegetable oil, and that’s retail. So if we cut the subsidies and went with my strategic pemmican plan, after about 10 years we’d have 100 years of food for everyone. Talk about food security. And then we’d enjoy our extra euro per day. And that’s assuming we all forget how to farm once the subsidies subside and we are henceforth incapable of producing a single beet.
self_made_human
C'est la vie
21hr ago
Sounds to me like you're describing the Bay Area.
Lizzardspawn
21hr ago
Fixes one of the greatest injustices in the post ottoman collapse. Erbil is absolutely great. It is the safest place with kindest people in all of the arab peninsula and Iran. It is pro western, really peaceful and have the best kebabs. United Kurdistan will create a strong center in the region that will be pro west and will weaken simultaneously Iran, Syria, Iraq and Turkey. And until Erdogan and his faction are in power everything that weakens Turkey is unadulterated good. If the secular people come in power it will be different, but so far it is long shot.
Imaginary_Knowledge
21hr ago
Actually, official censorship of Holocaust revisionism is a good reason to suspect that the official narrative is flawed in some way. That's how censorship works: censors lose any credible claim to the intellectual high ground.
https://cks.nice.org.uk/topics/erectile-dysfunction/background-information/prevalence/
Erectile dysfunction is a very common disorder, and the incidence and prevalence increases with age [Hackett, 2018; Muneer, 2014; EAU, 2022]. The Massachusetts Male Aging Study (MMAS) in the USA, a community-based, random sample, prospective observational study of non-institutionalized men in the Boston area, used a self-administered sexual activity questionnaire, and found [Feldman, 1994]: A self-reported overall prevalence of erectile dysfunction in 52% of men aged 40–70 years. The specific prevalence for mild, moderate, and severe cases was 17.2%, 25.2%, and 9.6% respectively. The prevalence increased with increasing age (increasing three-fold between men aged 40 and 70 years).
A large German postal survey (the 'Cologne Male Survey') of men aged 30–80 years (n = 8000) reported [Braun, 2000]: A prevalence of erectile dysfunction of 19.2%. The prevalence of erectile dysfunction increased from 2.3% at 30 years to 53.4% at 80 years of age. Expert opinion in a review article
solowingpixy
the resident car guy
22hr ago
It blows me away that despite a close connection to Russia, and increasingly China, they had such terrible IADS.
I would be careful not to overrate these connections. China and Russia have traditionally been rule followers when it comes to arms exports to Iran, which is to say that they complied with sanctions. China hasn't sold Iran any major systems and Russia only sold Iran four batteries of S-300s. Likewise, there's been much talk of Su-35 fighters being purchased, but no evidence of their deployment.
For comparison, Ukraine is a bit over a third of the size of Iran and reportedly had 100 S-300 batteries at the start of hostilities in 2022, enough to absorb the initial Russian strike and stay in the fight long enough for western-supplied systems like the Patriot to start picking up the slack.
Likewise, while we know that Iran supplied Russia with Shaheed drones (which Russia now produces and develops as the "Geranium"), for all the talk of Iran supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles, I've yet to see any evidence of them actually being deployed (i.e. actually having been shot at Ukraine or having been blown up by Ukrainians), unlike certain North Korean artillery pieces (e.g. the Koksan 170mm SPG).
Pasha
Defend Kebab
22hr ago
That is a very strange assertion to me. Why is Erbil a nice place to live? What does "uniting" Kurdistan achieve for you?
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
22hr ago
If you don't know who they are, why do you believe them?
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
22hr ago
A libertarian believes in freedoms other than just unrestricted abortion rights.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
22hr ago
Hadad
22hr ago
Only in opinion pieces, the classic way to smuggle insanity. Such as https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/opinion/international-world/protest-black-america.html
Hadad
22hr ago
Despite their best efforts to discriminate, it's just hard to do worse as a class than blacks.
Hadad
22hr ago
The editorial board? Well, what about the NYT being willing to host opinions?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/opinion/international-world/protest-black-america.html
AlexanderTurok
Alt-MSNBC
22hr ago
The short answer is that I'm a libertarian, kinda like Hanania, though more 2023 Hanania than 2025 Hanania. To sum it up in one sentence I like the first world and think it's better than the third world.
Rov_Scam
22hr ago
Why don't you link to an article where the New York Times editorial board defends violent rioting. Just one.
Well fortunately thanks to Ukraine/Russia, India/Pakistan and Iran/Israel we now have an excellent iterative stress-test of just how far you can push a nuclear power before they push that big red button. Yeeting quadcopter drones into a leg of the nuclear triad? Check. “Accidentally” blowing up the other side’s nuclear weapons with a conventional strike? Check. Chucking ballistic missiles with a 4,000 lb warhead into the densely populated high rise downtown area of the capitol city? Check. And of course the control group for the study, China/USA, where nothing ever happens, but it’s always looming.
quiet_NaN
22hr ago
It doesn't take years to learn to wire up a house or install some plumbing. A novice with zero experience and a copy of the code could do it all perfectly, though he'd be a bit slow.
He would be even faster without the code. Of course, nobody likes water damage from failed plumbing or wrongly installed wiring to burn their house down. Getting rid of the corpses of DIY-electricians is also a hassle.
There is a reason why we generally do not hand out driving licences after a student has passed the written test. A lot of knowledge is tacit, stuff which you do not learn from books.
That being said, I agree that a lot of the license regulations are protectionism hiding behind a veneer of safety concerns. For example, learning how to safely deploy standard household electricity (i.e. 230V, 16A) should not be more effort than learning how to drive a car.
Agreed on "breathless exhortations", but ... there is a but. Certainly many people walked away thinking the purpose of Iraq war to get rid of Saddam's nukes but I can't really find evidence anyone ever said they had nukes. Overuse of word "WMD" is another move that was both brilliant yet frustrating: conflated anything from mustard gas to nerve agents and nuclear weapons.
Like, here's the press release of February 5 2003 briefing to UNSC by Colin Powell. Powell made many claims: that Iraq was hiding stuff from the inspectors and that Iraq had had a biological and chemical weapons programs in 1990s (true), that Saddam had mobile laboratories (not), that Saddam "remained determined to acquire nuclear weapons" and was trying to acquire various machines such as high-specification aluminum tubes and magnets and machines (not really). Afterwards, it became evident the Saddam's nuclear program was vaporware and had been after the 1990s, but notice how elusive the original claims were here: "Those illicit procurement efforts showed that Saddam Hussein was very much focused on putting in place the key missing piece from his nuclear weapons programme -– the ability to produce fissile material." Tubes, magnets, "Saddam Hussein very focused on", "key missing piece". Sounds very scary indeed, but it was not a claim that Saddam had yet nukes.
There was a set of statements that Saddam was procuring uranium material ("yellow cake") from Africa (GWBs State of the Union 2003 and many statements by Dick Cheney). Again, it was nearly all claims about obtaining uranium, not having weapons. While searching for sources for all this, apparently there's bunch of anti-war websites who love to quote how Dick Cheney said "And we believe he has in fact reconstituted nuclear weapons" on Meet the Press aired March 16, 2003. Looking at the transcript that particular phrase looks like bit of word salad to me. He did say (twice!) "reconstituting his nuclear programs", which makes more grammatical sense, probably the phrase he was supposed to repeat. If Cheney was making a claim Saddam had nukes, he was being surprisingly circumspect about it. Its all "what could happen" "if they had a nuclear weapon", "he’s out trying once again to produce nuclear weapon", "it’s only a matter of time until he acquires nuclear weapons". (Later on, the US troops found yellow cake, only it was material IAEA knew of.)
To me, the 'historiography' of media reporting looks like gaslighting twice over. First round in 2003, with a frenzy of statements by admin trying to make Saddam's alleged WMD program appear maximally bad while alluding more than what they exactly said, knowing they were warmongering on flimsy ground and hypotheticals but tiptoeing close to some imagined line they thought was supported by "evidence". Too bad that all the evidence and intelligence was blatantly false or fabricated. Second round of mischaracterization happened after the war, when everyone was angry or disillusioned or both, with anti-war side painting a picture where GWB and Cheney and Powell had said all the maximal claims of Iraqi nukes everybody thought they had heard.
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