domain:forecasting.substack.com
MadMonzer
Pedo! Pedo! Pedo! Out! Out! Out!
49m ago
All the people in the picture in the BBC article are white in the bio-anthropological sense (which has always included swarthy MENA types for good scientific reasons). The 19th century "scientific racist" bio-anthropologists didn't think there was a clean biological distinction between swarthy and non-swarthy whites, and modern DNA evidence has confirmed that they are correct. Gypsies are white in this sense. The men in the picture don't look like stereotypical gypsies, but they look a lot more like stereotypical gypsies than stereotypical non-gypsy Romanians.
The MO of the criminality is consistent with both gypsy organised crime and non-gypsy Eastern European organised crime, but the latter is more associated with the FSU and former Yugoslavia than with Bulgaria and Romania.
hydroacetylene
49m ago
I’ve lost track of the number of medium commercial hvac techs(=roofs, for their entire [long]workdays) I thought were Mexican until they took their shirt off.
pigeonburger
49m ago
Giving good advice starts by making the person feel good about accepting it. If your advice sounds like a reproach, if the advice is framed in a way that makes the receiver feels stupid for not knowing before, it won't be accepted. Your "Fun Facts" and "Winning" categories are easier to give accepted advice in because they are not inherently negative. But if negativity cannot be avoided you need the insulate the reciever from it; such as you did in the "Tough Love" example, by saying it may not work for everyone, because if you didn't you'd be implying that they're lying if they percieved themselves as having tried it and the results didn't follow. If insulating the person doesn't work, or cannot work because the advice inherently implies that they've been deluding themselves, then you need to put yourself right there next to them taking on the implication, so that they don't feel it's their personal failing. So instead of saying "you think you're cutting out carbs but I've seen you eat tons of sweet desserts", go with "when I was trying to cut carbs, even when I thought I was doing it properly, I wasn't counting my desserts properly and turns out they amounted to more than I thought they did".
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
52m ago
For everyone else, the police statement, local skepticism, and sociological context should nudge your priors at least a little.
I think that sums up my stance, and is, in fact, what I actually said. I am not leaning uncritically on the police report, I consider it significant, but I have taken pains to explain the local sociocultural milieu.
Just like trusting a random dude on social media, trusting official sources is just outsourcing your critical thinking to people that have repeatedly proven themselves unworthy of that trust.
Also lol at the idea distrusting the authorities is the modern equivalent of a witch hunt. Was it Matthew Hopkins Witchfinder Footsoldier? Who ran the Spanish inquisition again?
The fuck? Scott has a point about "bounded distrust". Governments, and their official mouthpieces are neither infinitely trustworthy nor untrustworthy. You can throw just about anything Pyongyang says into the trash, other nations command more credibility. Britain is not North Korea.
If firefighters ask you to evacuate your building because of a gas leak, don't tell me you're going to go lighting matches to see for yourself, because you don't trust a damn thing The Man tells you.
What is that I imagine hearing you say? I'm strawmanning you? Then I'd invite you to reconsider attempting to brand me as someone slavishly dependent on the "official" take.
DiscourseMagnus
59m ago
No one I or anyone else I spoke to recognized, at least.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
59m ago
It is a trope in fiction to meet an attractive man while traveling, and women appear to enjoy narrative-driven sexual fantasies while men enjoy visual-driven fantasies. But as for why women enjoy narrative-driven fantasies, I don’t know.
Stefferi
Chief Suomiposter
1hr ago
The point being moreso the "by an underaged girl" part than "video showing yourself being threatened with an axe and a knife" part.
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
1hr ago
A very important thing to note here:
The police proactively tracked down the gang. There was, as far as I can ascertain, no period where citizens had to take to the streets, where whistleblowers went hoarse, while the coppers tried to suppress the magnitude of the case. That is the polar opposite of a cover-up! As far as I can see, that is a reason to trust the police there more than you would by default, for British cops.
Further, while the people involved seem reprehensible, their crimes seem far tamer than what was going on in, say, Rotherham.
This specific example:
One of the charges he was convicted of was under the Human Trafficking Act, by forcing a woman into prostitution.
Prosecutor Lisa Gillespie KC said this victim had been sold a "pipe dream" of how she could make "lots of money" from selling her body.
Excuse me? It sounds like this particular lady signed up for this. Doesn't sound like she was beaten or drugged. At worst, she was a victim of false advertising. If being sold dreams of money were illegal, most influencers on TikTok or Insta would be in jail tomorrow.
(Just to make it very clear, these guys were also convicted of relatively more clear-cut cases of rape, but this is not what people normally imagine when they think of forced prostitution or sex trafficking)
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
1hr ago
Not a local, not even American but been there multiple times. So tourist POV.
Walk. Seriously, Walk.
It's cliche, but there is a certain buzz or "energy" in Manhattan that I haven't felt anywhere else. Don't use Ubers, if its a 20 minute walk and a 10 minute subway ride, walk. Manhattan is best experienced on the streets.
Others have mentioned that you can try the endless options of food, entertainment, but I suggest don't overfill your schedule with "things to do", leave some room to just walk around and check out things that catch your eye.
ThomasdelVasto
Κύριε, ποίησόν με ὄργανον τῆς ἀγάπης σου
1hr ago
Yep open coworking space. Just cool people, a nice vibe, good place to chill.
Totalitarianit
1hr ago
Well, I'm here, so it pulls down the weighted average.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
1hr ago
Fuentes is definitely becoming popular. Asmongold, at one point the most watched streamer in the world, reacted to his anti-Tucker video with 1.7 million views. The Tucker thing itself, Tucker being the most influential conservative, having to insult Fuentes while conceding his oratory gifts, is telling. That Fuentes ratios whoever he wants on Twitter.
Remember that his audience isn’t normies (who have a 30% chance of turning out to elections or whatever and doesn’t talk about politics). His audience has a 99% chance of turning out, and each one acts as an influence generator, influencing those around them with their views. So it’s not just number of viewers or number of supporters, because his viewers and supporters are all mini propagandists. Fuentes has captured the 2015 4chan Trump energy youth.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1hr ago
Yeah, you couldn't hold your ground against someone armed with a real weapon (like a noble or their household) with what the peasants carried around.
zeke5123a
1hr ago
This reads “boo outgroup.” Fuentes isn’t popular and trying to claim otherwise is just a means to be able to paint the Republicans with Fuentes’ beliefs. It’s the same reason you uncritically believed the Seltzer poll despite all of the noted problems.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
1hr ago
It was also fairly common for anyone to have a cane/walking stick/cudgel with him at any time.
But the size, shape, and type of tools/weapons/accoutrements allowed to ordinary folk was heavily regulated and violators harshly punished in urban areas throughout European history.
I appreciate it, and trust me, I know. In this particular situation, I was blindsided. I expected person A to call me to figure out how to potentially exfiltrate their brother from a British hospital (and I have a consultant uncle who works nearby, might even be the same trust). I was in very deep with Person B before I realized, hang on a second, when are we getting to your brother? By that point, I was concerned for her life.
In this particular case, everyone involved needs to be involuntarily committed, and the keys thrown away. A whopping two of them were, in fact, hospitalized, but had family pull strings to get them out. After they had made a good faith effort to murder said family! One of those incidents happened in the States! Half the people involved are American citizens! I knew the Indian psychiatric system can be... less than ideal, but this had me rolling around in the throes of a seizure.
The bad news: your family will ask for medical advice. Your friend's partner will complain about her vaginal discharge. Your barber will start telling you about their suicide attempt in the 8th grade.
This is just how it works in India. Doctors are expected to dish out advice for free, especially to friends and family. And you know what? I support this. It works fine. My dad and grandpa delivered me by c-sec, while my grandma would have been in there too if it wasn't for the fact that there was no more room for grossly overqualified assistants. The world didn't end, nobody died, and nobody can ever accuse my dad of not being there in the delivery room.
This is normal. This is good. In India, the expectation that you will treat your own kin is as natural as chai at 5:00 pm, and - at risk of being stripped of my NHS badge - I genuinely think it mostly works. The West, meanwhile, has spun this elaborate theory that doctors must not treat their own families because they’ll lose “clinical detachment” or “objectivity” or some other deontological talisman. This, in my opinion, is a spectacular act of collective catastrophizing. The reality is, my parents cared more about our family’s gynae problems because it was their family. They didn’t suddenly forget the Krebs cycle or lose their ability to prescribe antibiotics at the whiff of a cousin’s maiden name.
("I can't operate on that boy, he's my son!" - An absolute pussy, that's the solution to the riddle)
When I was back in India recently, I gently confirmed what I already suspected, my nephew had all the hallmarks of ADHD. I pushed, with the full force of my reputation and family standing, for my cousins to get him properly assessed. If I hadn’t, nobody else would have. He’d have spent another decade wondering why school was a personal hell designed for someone else. My family listened, partly because I’m a psychiatry trainee, but mostly because I’m family.
Let’s be honest: nobody objects when the family architect drafts blueprints for free, or the family mechanic fixes your brakes after dinner. Nobody gets a lecture on “professional boundaries” when Auntie fixes your tax returns. Yet somehow, doctors are supposed to recuse themselves because of the overwhelming risk that love and affection will erode our capacity to wield a stethoscope.
I consciously refrain from doing much of this, these days, at least in the UK, both because it's not the culture and because the GMC lacks a sense of humor.
Also with respect to psychiatry - don't sleep with your patients. It sounds stupid advice but it isn't.
Haven't fallen into that trap, and I don't intend to! The GMC had me remove "Grippy socks, grippy box" from my flair, on pain of death. Goddamit, are there any perks left in the profession?
Maybe we can at least have the family C-section, even if it makes for a very confusing set of post-op notes and insurance claims.
FistfullOfCrows
2hr ago
I can tell you they are definitely not ethnically Romanian/Bulgarian.
Fatos is an Albanian name. I could not find info on "dumana" but the related "Dumani" seems to be traceable to Albania as well.
So yes, very much European ethnicity
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2hr ago
Not weapons as such, but there are many tools the peasants would carry on a daily basis which could be used to hurt/intimidate someone if needed. You'd need to be able to fight off wild animals outside the cities. It would be bizarre for someone not to carry a knife at all times - they're just too useful.
Of course, the knife the average person carried looked very different from a jeweled dagger or weapon of war.
sun_the_second
could survive a COD lobby and a gay furry discord server
2hr ago
Well, it is not my impression that unrelated adults are allowed to discipline other people's children now, not in Britain at least. Admittedly I do not live there.
Curly_rincewind
2hr ago
The Munich one is pretty well visited. Theres also a small one in Erlangen. Can DM you the group chat links.
Throwaway05
2hr ago
This deserves a long response for you but I have a busy day today.
The good news: you are in good company, all of us need to figure this out.
The bad news: your family will ask for medical advice. Your friend's partner will complain about her vaginal discharge. Your barber will start telling you about their suicide attempt in the 8th grade.
Since you are a psychiatrist you will probably work on polishing your presentation and bedside manner and unless you run into demographic issues or somewhat you will have insane interactions with the general public. The same response to you will be useful professionally.
Figuring this out is hard. In psychiatry it will be a core topic at least, which will help.
Also with respect to psychiatry - don't sleep with your patients. It sounds stupid advice but it isn't.
sun_the_second
could survive a COD lobby and a gay furry discord server
2hr ago
From cursory googling, a grivna at that time was an about 200 gram silver bar and equaled the cost of a combat steed or a year's wages of a Norwegian mercenary.
Weregild for the murder of a free man was 40 grivnas, for comparison.
Eh, temperament. Especially in a group, they might’ve felt the need to stick together more than to run.
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