domain:noahpinion.blog
NunoSempere
16hr ago
The FRC considers the analysis team’s current classification (IPC Phase 5 Famine with reasonable evidence) to be plausible
While it is possible that based on the data available as of 15 August, the food entering in August may meet the estimated 62,000 MT threshold of needs, this remains unclear. Even so, this would still not be sufficient to reverse the catastrophic levels of hunger and suffering, given the many months that this threshold was not met prior.
Wheat flour has seen major price fluctuations—up to USD 30 in June and coming back down to around USD 15 in July.
Food utilization in terms of preparation remains extremely hampered by the complete lack of fuel and cooking gas to prepare food, forcing households to increasingly rely on burning rubbish across all governorates, particularly in Gaza Governorate (73%).37 No cooking gas has entered the Strip since February 2025.38 Staple foods, such as lentils and wheat flour, if poorly cooked are not well digested by the body, reducing the body’s ability to fully absorb and use the nutrients
My best guess:
- Technical threshold of IPC level 5 (2 deaths in 10K people) probably not met
- Effects of declaration of the technical threshold met unclear. If the UN was widely respected and trusted, it could have been a Schelling point. Israel disputes it.
North Korea has a secret base near China with missiles that could reach the U.S., a new report from CSIS says
Massacres in eastern Congo cast doubt on U.S. mediated peace deal
Belarus says it is looking at how to arm its missile systems with nuclear warheads
Sweden to build more nuclear plants with US or UK technology
A Russian military drone crashed in Eastern Poland during the night, causing an explosion that residents reported but resulted in no injuries. Radar systems did not detect the drone
Russian military drone crashes and explodes in eastern Poland, defence minister says
Putin demands Ukraine quit Donbas, drop NATO plans in peace proposal
Italian police arrest Ukrainian man over Nord Stream pipeline attacks
Doubletree3
16hr ago
Characterizing Texas' current actions as "a patsy finally noticing and fighting back" is a-historical nonsense im afraid. Republicans have had their share of innovation in the gerrymandering space. See operation REDMAP.
Doubletree3
16hr ago
We don't have to go back far in time to find a situation where NJ was roughly 50-50 in party congressional seats (2014 and 2016). The big swing towards Democrats happened in 2018, but new maps were not drawn until 2021, so partisan gerrymandering could not have played a role there.
the previous district map was drawn in 2011 by a bi partisan committee, in which a Republican cast the tie-breaking vote.
Looking at the two maps, one is not clearly more gerrymandered than the other.
So my conclusion is that regardless of how squiggly lines on the map are, Republicans have historically been proportionally competitive in nj-- so the squigglyness tells us little.
Of course cherry picking squiggly districts is orthogonal to the question of whether Republicans in this specific case are smashing the 'defect' button and trying to pick up extra house seats 'for free' . (They definitely are.)
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
16hr ago
I resisted anything suggested by my parents. It had to be organic, something I arrived at on my own. Perhaps a bit of mentalizing him without being direct. And it wasn't just because of parental pushing, or that it was organized. (In fact I liked organization.) It was a paralyzing fear of being around a bunch of people I didn't know. Again, who knows if that's key. But there are again ways of easing him into social interaction.
kky
16hr ago
Listen, man, Donald Trump the New York Democrat managed to convert the Republican Party (organization of “pretend to care about Christianity so we can deliver tax cuts for the rich”) into a bunch of bootlickers and imitators that are seriously if sometimes ineffectually trying to deliver the platform they were elected on. It’s patently possible to take advantage of deliberate sandbaggers and repurpose their organization to your own ends.
Not saying it’s easy, duh. But if it matters to you…
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
16hr ago
What do you understand to be the other side's argument?
kky
16hr ago
I still don’t get it. That sounds like regular silliness to me, not idiocy. Intelligence doesn’t preclude goofiness; good comics tend to be pretty bright, because they need to put their finger on the audience’s pulse.
But people seem to be talking, sometimes, about feeling attracted to “tee hee math is hard” kind of nonsense. And I don’t get it.
Sloot
16hr ago
Isolated allowance for pattern recognition. The usual Who? Whom?
A woman more on guard around men than around women is being smart in looking out for herself.
A woman less relaxed around black men than she is around white men is a racist who should be ashamed of herself.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
16hr ago
You don't find it tiresome to claim "Someone involved is a Jew, therefore this is Jews being nefarious." But pointing out we have no evidence that the Jew in question was involved at all is tiresome. In the absence of evidence, the public should reasonably conclude "Jews."
Okay.
Are you incapable of accurately stating the other side's argument, or just unwilling?
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
16hr ago
Is this fun? We'll see.
I had a terrifyingly linear and coherent nightmare last night. My wife and I woke up in some dystopian mega complex with no explanation. It was bright, white and clean, and absolutely jam packed with people hurrying about like drones. We were quickly swept up in the flow and struggled not to get separated in the press of bodies. The corridors appeared to be one way and incredibly maze like. Eventually we got swept to a cafeteria and tried to get a handle on the situation.
I grabbed a plate of food that didn't seem terrible, although it was indistinct slop of various colors and consistencies. It still hit all the taste centers, and had that distinctive salty and savory punch that junkfood often has. The only utensil looked like a broken fork, with one middle prong completely snapped off and one middle prong only half snapped. I struggled to use it.
While I'm eating this kid is yelling at me that I'm eating wrong, I'm not eating the food in the correct order. I ignore him, but I notice people asking some AI questions out loud, although I don't hear any of the answers back. I ask the kid about it, cause kids are easy to pump for information, and he once again yells at me that it's not "AI" it's "At". I guess they named their LLM "At". At this point my wife and I try to dispose of our plates and utensils, but it's close to the one way exit and my wife gets swept up in the press of bodies and whisked down a corridor. I try to catch up, but I simply can't. At this point my top priority is trying to find my wife.
I try asking At where my wife is, but it doesn't work. I'm getting intensely scared and frustrated, afraid my wife will be lost for ever in this complex and I'll never see her again. I somehow figure out that At needs to be installed directly into your brain. I get to a kiosk to do it, and I'm just mashing the touch screen as fast as I can. I don't realize there are levels that At can be installed at, and each press of the button increases the level.
The first level just tries to use parts of your brain that you aren't using. The last level fully uploads "you" to the cloud and At uses your whole brain as part of it's cloud compute. But of course, the more of your brain you give to At the more convenience it confers. Level 1 lets you ask it questions and receive answer, Level 2 gives you a HUD in your vision and highlights things in your environment to assist with the task you are trying to perform. The highest level can hijack your entire body, turn you off, and walk you to where you are trying to get to.
I accidentally get the highest level installed. I feel different. Everything I feel towards my wife feels somehow muted, or turned down. In the nightmare this terrifies me even more. I ask At to take me to my wife, and it finds her, I black out, and then I'm there. Something is different between us now, and my wife seems unsettled by me. I ask At to guide us out and it takes us to the exit. As we go to leave, a warning pops up in my vision that since I'm running 100% in the cloud and my brain has been formatted to run At completely, I'll die if I leave. My wife takes the exit, and I wake up from the nightmare.
The most gerrymandered states in the union are all blue
Evidence for this?
Combine it with red states not being dumb enough to establish independent redistricting commissions
Note that California's process in particular was enacted in 2008, opposed by the democratic party and supported by the Republican party, but they shot themselves in the foot and lost several seats. calling California "dumb" for this is probably ignoring a lot of path dependency and/or requires applying some double standards.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
17hr ago
You're making almost as many assumptions as SS, largely based on what you feel should be true.
You don't find it tiresome to claim "Someone involved is a Jew, therefore this is Jews being nefarious." But pointing out we have no evidence that the Jew in question was involved at all is tiresome. In the absence of evidence, the public should reasonably conclude "Jews."
Okay.
Look, I’d absolutely prefer a norm of independent redistricting.
Several states have "independent" committees to draw district lines, but still manage to have drastic swings between party votes (let's use "votes for presidential candidate from each party" as a good, but imperfect proxy) and congressional representation. California comes to mind, but certainly isn't alone. I've even seen this defended with "but reds choose to live in dense blue areas, so we can't draw lines to create majority-red districts". Note that the Civil Rights Act requires, and we manage to generally, draw districts that are majority-minority (Q: if neighborhoods broadly ever become effectively non-segregated, can we throw up our hands and say this isn't possible?). The Louisiana SCOTUS case recently included peripheral questions about whether two disconnected historically-Black areas (one urban, one rural) could reasonably be drawn into the same district for this purpose.
Honestly, I've come to the opinion that in this day and age, good geographic district boundaries just aren't a solvable problem, and that we should probably move to proportional slates of candidates by state like some parliamentary systems do. This has its own problems, but I think if limited to one house of Congress would balance reasonably well. Pity that existing law disallows such schemes, I believe.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
17hr ago
Regarding b), not letting people charged with a crime leave the country until they've been acquitted is indeed standard operating procedure in any self-respectibg country. Some people have diplomatic immunity, but no one showed that was the case here.
Regarding a), given the above someone dropped the ball, if you want to claim it wasn't the AG, I suppose that's fine, but the "you don't have any evidence for X" argument in a case where the public has no access to all the evidence, is just tiresome.
Amadan
Enjoying my short-lived victory
17hr ago
Is everyone just reflexively reacting to certain words and not actually reading the thread?
Reread.
It is SS's contention that the Israeli-born Attorney General of Nevada, Signal Chattah, arranged a special deal for Artem Alexandrovich because she's a Zionist.
So far as I know, there is no evidence that (a) the state AG was directly involved or (b) that allowing a foreign government official to return to their home country while facing charges in the US is unusual. We do not know why Alexandrovich was allowed bail while the other suspects were not or if he got special treatment for being a foreign government official.
If both (a) and (b) are proven, then maybe we can question Chattah's reasoning.
But right now, it's just the usual insinuations about Jews.
Throwaway05
17hr ago
If you date enough absolutely gorgeous women you will find out two things:
-
A shocking number of them are obnoxiously perfect (by which I mean they are smart, kind, and functional). It's quite unfair! ...And it puts pressure on the relationship because they know they can have anyone.
-
For the ones that aren't, well it gets tiring and it happens oddly fast (especially because most of them aren't good in bed). A girlfriend + porn rapidly starts to seem better than the 10/10 girlfriend who is annoying. If you happen to know a bunch of beautiful women closely you'll be shocked at how much some of the complain about not getting laid especially the ones in a serious relationship. The quote "no matter how hot she is, someone out there is sick of dealing with her shit" is prescient.
I imagine this guy is having some number two action.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
17hr ago
One might also note that until fairly recently, "judicial command" based on the Voting Rights Act included a mandate to maximize minority (in practice, Democratic) representation.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
17hr ago
And then God gives someone like Cormac McCarthy to the world, and keeps him around for as long as it takes.
NYTReader
17hr ago
You say that the Dems clearly started it. Others says the Reps clearly started it.
Without reading (at least) 50 years of redistricting history, how does one possibly get to the bottom of this? As time goes on it becomes increasingly obvious to me that it's a folly to believe there is anything resembling objective truth on almost any contentious issue.
I read something on TheMotte that appears to be well-argued, some guy replies with what appears to be an equally compelling argument, and some other website has information that contradicts them both. My brain feels like it's going to explode. There is no hope.
beefypo
17hr ago
It seems to me that almost every woman is more cautious around any individual man vs any individual woman (especially in isolated situations) due to the risk of sexual assault. Is this sexist? Should they not discriminate in this manner?
No_one
18hr ago
Don't forget Jack L. Chalker.
I'm somewhat fascinated by the frequently short lifespans of American writers.
No_one
18hr ago
...focuses? No. It doesn't. It's incidental to an experiment in trying to understand partner's POV.
We can certainly say that this is one of the general effects of AI integration, yes.
How well does this dream correspond to conscious, waking thoughts that you've experienced previously? Is the narrative of this dream a familiar line of thought to you, or did you experience it as something new?
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