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FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Also, not saying you specifically are doing this, but I see it in fighters sometimes. They get to be friends with people at the gym or the club, and then they develop a bit of a mental block about really just smashing their friend/opponent.
Absolutely my problem. ~90% of rolls in my gym, I'm either paiseh about going too hard against an upper belt with escalation dominance on me, because I feel like he's being nice so I don't want to be a dick; or I'm paiseh about really putting the hurt on a new guy or a little guy or whatever. I sorta thought this would fix itself as I got better technically and wasn't just relying on muscle, but six months later I'm still stuck in second gear.
Maybe I just need to bring a flask and do enough shots to hit the Ballmer Peak right before I roll...
I need to get out of my own head, and I'm thinking even rolling "normal" pace against new people will break me out of it because I won't be mentally placing them in my hierarchy before we even slap hands.
Botond173
8hr ago
It’s also true though that the existing Russian political system collapsed in a rather bloodless manner in 1917 and also 1991.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
8hr ago
Poland
The US DID give up Poland without trying! That's a thing that really happened! Not ten years before the Gulf of Tonkin, the US failed to help the Hungarians who were ready to stand against the USSR. During the Vietnam War the US would abandon the Prague Spring to its fate. The ding to US prestige from failing to aid the Hungarians or the Czechs was small, in fact it was probably less than the debit to USSR credibility worldwide resulting from those invasions. In fact the damage done to the US was so small, you don't even remember it! The ding from losing in Vietnam was large, and the damage done by the United States' behavior in Vietnam (and the rest of Indochina) was even larger. From this we can deduce that US global prestige suffered less from scenarios in which they didn't try than scenarios in which they tried and lost.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
8hr ago
The lockdown itself needs to be the subject of a sustained ‘never again’ campaign similar to the Holocaust, and future generations should be guilt tripped endlessly about what their ancestors did.
Really? I mean, come on, if the next thing to go pandemic (lab leak, bioweapon, or natural) has the mortality rate of septicaemic plague, there's just straight-up no alternative. You lock down, hard, and shoot violators on sight, or you all die. Pick one.
Maintaining bureaucratic delays in approving vaccines for a pandemic plague? Yes, NEVER AGAIN (and that one even could justify topping Fauci). Trying to institute Permanent Midnight and set a "new normal" of permanent lockdown? Yes, NEVER AGAIN. But what you're proposing here is crazy.
(To be clear, I got this on the volunteer page and rated it "Neutral", because being wrong isn't against the rules; if nobody dared to say anything they weren't sure about here, the place would be a lot less useful.)
HereAndGone
8hr ago
Has antibiotic-resistant TB gotten that bad? Do people let TB infections get bad enough to be untreatable before seeking treatment?
These statistics from 2023 indicate that it's mostly among immigrants/non-native born people in the USA. Included with that are the risk factors associated with poverty, homelessness, and unhealthy behaviour. Plus they're including places like Guam and Micronesia, which you'd expect to have much worse outcomes anyway:
As in past years, four U.S. states combined reported half of all U.S. TB cases in 2023: California, Texas, New York (including New York City), and Florida.
...Consistent with previous years, origin of birth was a key risk factor for TB disease in 2023. Most TB cases (75.8%) in 2023 occurred among non-U.S.–born persons
...In the United States, TB disease disproportionately impacts persons who identify as members of racial or ethnic minority groups. In 2023, persons identifying as Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander had the highest TB incidence rate (22.6 per 100,000 persons) among all racial/ethnic groups followed by persons identifying as Asian (14.0 per 100,000 persons).
Likewise, the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands continued to report some of the highest incidence rates in the world. The TB incidence rate in 2023 was 503.7 per 100,000 persons in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and 179.4 per 100,000 persons in the Federated States of Micronesia. TB diagnoses during active case finding efforts in the Federated States of Micronesia during 2023 likely contributed to the high incidence rate there, which represents a 300.5% increase compared with 2022 (44.8 per 100,000 persons).
...TB disease in pregnancy poses a substantial risk of morbidity to both the pregnant woman and the fetus if not diagnosed and treated in a timely manner.
Smoking is associated with increased risk of TB disease.
...Living or working in congregate settings, including homeless shelters, is a risk factor for TB because shared airspace can facilitate TB exposure and transmission.
...For other risk factors, 23.4% of TB cases occurred in persons reported to have diabetes and 4.9% occurred in persons with HIV. Among persons with TB who were at least 15 years of age, social risk factors included excess alcohol use (7.9%), noninjecting drug use (7.8%), and residence within a correctional facility (3.6%) at the time of diagnosis.
...The National Vital Statistics System reported 565 TB-related deaths in 2022, the most recent year for which data are available. The TB mortality rate was 0.2 deaths per 100,000 persons. Using unrounded numbers, this represents a 6.1% decrease in the number of TB-related deaths and 6.5% decrease in the mortality rate compared with 2021.
As regards drug resistance:
...Isoniazid (INH) drug-resistant and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB disease Organisms resistant to one of the most common anti-TB drugs, isoniazid (INH), cause INH-resistant TB disease. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB disease is caused by an organism that is resistant to at least isoniazid and rifampin. In Tables 12–14, INH-resistant and MDR cases are displayed by year and stratified by a patient’s history of previous TB disease.
Starting in 2023, information on drug resistance included results of molecular drug susceptibility testing in addition to growth-based susceptibility testing for isoniazid and rifampin. An isolate was considered resistant to isoniazid or rifampin if either the growth-based test or molecular test detected resistance.
So at a glance it looks like "be immigrant, be poor/in bad circumstances, don't get diagnosed immediately, don't get put on treatment immediately, more likely to contract TB and to die from it". Again, drug-resistant TB seems to be slightly higher amongst non-US born than US natives. And smoking/vaping is the big risk factor.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
8hr ago
There seems to be a weird phenomena among formally powerful people and nations where once they no longer actually have the power they once had, they fall back on formality, legalism, and ceremonial trappings. It’s really funny once you actually see it, or at least when it’s not happening to your side of the argument. Countries that once had a military presence that the world feared now politely go about hat in hand to beg their former subjects to do something and paying them to do it. Political entities that once reshaped nations now reduced to issuing letters or rulings and impotently asking the people with actual power to listen to them.
When you start seeing groups become formal, you know they lack either the power or the will to be powerful. The UK hasn’t been much of a power since the Second World War. It’s unlikely they will hold such power this century.
Crowstep
8hr ago
The youths that were indoctrinated and acculturated during the awokening are irreversibly woke at this point. Those who stopped virtue-signalling are the older ones who haven't received such indoctrination.
I'm not so sure. I've heard more than one young woman who came of age at the height of it all use the phrase 'man in a dress' (as opposed to 'transwoman') which was previously only used by stubborn conservatives like me.
I can't find it now, but I read a survey showing that typical woke attitudes (innate white racial guilt, the belief that sexism is all-encompassing etc) were never actually popular with the majority, they were only popular with a very loud minority that was allowed to police the overton window. Now that has broken down, it feels like people are more willing to say what they always thought now, and that includes young people.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
8hr ago
· Edited 8hr ago
If by "this" you mean "SARS-CoV-2" and "COVID", SJers tend to subscribe to the Whorf hypothesis that language affects culture and keep trying to exploit this.
If you mean "Wuhan Flu", because anti-SJers are very angry at the SJers who play Whorfian language games and want to spite them, possibly in the hopes of not having more Whorfian language games. Also, because naming diseases after places has been quite common until recently.
cae_jones
8hr ago
Does Teddy Roosevelt count? He had broken away from the Republicans to become the founder of the Progressives, and was shot while running for a third term, and like Trump and Reagan, survived. The political landscape at that time was so utterly different, though, I wonder how to count the other assassinations and attempts between Lincoln and Kennedy.
sulla
9hr ago
Either a zoonotic virus crossed over to humans fifteen miles from the biggest coronavirus laboratory in the Eastern Hemisphere. Or a lab leak virus first rose to public attention right near a raccoon-dog stall in a wet market.
He can’t even into Bayes. There are many thousands of raccoon-dog stalls in China. There was exactly one BSL-3 lab in China. There was exactly one lab studying GoF on human coronaviruses.
WandererintheWilderness
9hr ago
I don't think it is misleading. A million deaths is a million deaths, even if it's Space Year 52,026 and the population is numbered in trillions. 9/11 had ~3000 casualties and mourning them is still A Thing. Scott's intuitive argument is that we should be equally scarred/freaked out about the fallen of COVID who were 3000 times as numerous, whatever percentage of the population they represented.
the more moderate activists got on with their normal lives, leaving only the most radical remaining, who in turn radicalised eachother.
That probably also explains much of the political unrest that took place in the young Weimar Republic between 1919 and 1923 or so.
Now that the Great Awokening is in decline, the normies are quietly removing the pronouns from their email signatures and taking down their Pride flags
It's probably more accurate to say that it was successfully completed. The youths that were indoctrinated and acculturated during the awokening are irreversibly woke at this point. Those who stopped virtue-signalling are the older ones who haven't received such indoctrination.
zeke5123a
9hr ago
The last attempt was literally in 2024 (albeit the Republican wasn’t currently president but of course had been president and was running again)
You also had the Bernie supporter targeting the republicans in the congressional baseball game.
rudig
9hr ago
Well agreed that compared to Israels other bombings in this war, this event is not so bad. The problems is that Israeli propagandist in the west always try to make every attack on them some major moral and civilizational issue. So playing by their own rules its relevant that Israel has no problem at all attacking an embassy and killing staff there.
There doesnt need seem to be more proof of this claim:
There is also a point to be made that this probably was a causal factor in the collapse of the Assad regime which happened in the same year, ending (hopefully) a decades long civil war.
Than this one:
Now, if you show me that the two Israelis which were killed were instrumental in the Israeli military efforts, perhaps tasked with sourcing US weapons, and the attacker picked them for that reason,
It seems like a case of isolated demand of rigor.
This treats the polarization as binary collectives, rather than clusters in a much, much broader sea of actors of various willingness to murder. An example of the distinction is Mexico- there is political polarization, though at the current time one 'pole' has achieved relative dominance, but there is also a heck of a lot of political murder.
Mexico is not generally considered a producer of better leadership, not least because the group they need to not get assassinated by more (Cartels) are not only different from the political outgroup pole, but fractious enough that there is no coherent [Cartel group] as a national level. Which means more potential conflicts, for more potential assassinations, and so on.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
9hr ago
I think the big thing I’d look for is the anger has to rise significantly first. Nobody on the left is really angry enough to start something. They just aren’t. We don’t even have Vietnam War levels of mass protests, no real civil disobedience like in the 1960s. I’m not even sure there’s an analogous counterculture like the hippies that exist to form the nucleus of such serious sustained protests.
In the 1960s and 1970s the counterculture was everywhere, and fairly popular among the youth. Pop music celebrated the issues hippies were into, things like Fortunate Son were plaid on the radio. Movies and TV shows talked about those issue. Woodstock was a cultural touchstone. This isn’t really true today. The poplar songs today are not even plausible as protest songs or anti-Trump songs, TV migh sporadically have a woke theme, but there aren’t whole tv series that are specifically pro-migrant, or pro-Palestine, or Woke. Musicians are not producing ant-Trump song lists, they occasionally bring up Trump during a concert.
In order to get a big spike in violence, people have to be mad enough to radicalize a weirdo. How does that happen when the crowd isn’t angry?
4bpp
After January 20th, all orange flairs are considered political
10hr ago
I've been wondering if the reason the media aren't pushing footage from places like Vo(v/l)chansk (where the rubble is still being made to bounce) more prominently nowadays is because of saturation/fatigue or because they always invite awkward comparisons to Gaza where we are on the attacker's side.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
10hr ago
The last republican president assassinated was Lincoln in 1865. The last successful assassination period was JFK. The last attempt was Reagan in 1980. In general, times of massive popular unrest, highly polarized politics. Not really something that I’d worry about.
4bpp
After January 20th, all orange flairs are considered political
10hr ago
At best it wouldn't have been a civil war, just a decade or two of people deciding it's ok to shoot politicians they don't like and all the impacts of that norm.
What do you think would be they impacts of that norm? I have always had the suspicion that in a sufficiently polarised setting, it might actually result in better leadership if the leaders had to not only optimise for getting reelected (make their ingroup happy) but also for not getting assassinated (don't make their outgroup too unhappy).
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
10hr ago
I did have a sore throat a couple of times, but nothing debilitating. The anosmia happened twice and honestly had a worse effect on my QOL as I was cooped up inside without the comfort of tasty food.
I presume you're probably a few years or a decade older than me, and it seems that it gets pretty bad once you're in your mid 30s, and concerning past the 50s.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
10hr ago
In practice, like flu and other coronaviruses, covid will likely alternate between herd immunity and very slightly below the threshold for herd immunity in perpetuity.
This is a strange way of putting "endemic".
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
11hr ago
In a second American civil war there are no winners. I suppose, like, Hamas and Russia probably win but that's not really what we're considering.
Crowstep
11hr ago
Rumours are that Keir Starmer was the basis for Mark Darcy in Bridget Jones. A handsome, intelligent human rights lawyer, the perfect man for a neurotic woman in the Cool Britannia years.
I guess this is what governance by human rights lawyers looks like, doing anything, regardless of how stupid, if international/human rights law says we have to.
In the UK we have an expression 'the Blob', which is something like our version of the Deep State. A collection of civil servants, QUANGOs, tribunals, the BBC and lawyers. Keir Starmer is the Blob personified.
Sure; the Voting Rights Act in particular was an intentional degradation of state sovereignty. For very-unequal size legislative districts, you can wave at the Guarantee Clause (which would at least provide constitutional backing for the limit on sovereignty). But censure has been a thing since before the US was founded, and has long existed at the Federal level, so it would be very strange for it to be somehow forbidden at the state level with no explicit language saying so.
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