domain:lesswrong.com
Pongalh
11hr ago
You say 99% on their side, and yet his discussion of trans issues is way more than 1% of his output. IOW if you don't talk much about the other 99% of your issue positions how much do you really hold them?
Eupraxia
Of all words spoken, all things read / most true was that which went unsaid
11hr ago
Western societies in general suffer from a systems-level equivalent of an auto-immune disorder
netstack
Texas is freedom land
11hr ago
Based.
I don’t think any of this will actually make currency more useful than ubiquitous payment processors, so I don’t see the need for #3. But Ayn Rand would be funny enough that I’m on board with it.
That seems more a right-wing thing than a left-wing thing, IMO (cf the owned by facts and logic genre, which is heavily right-wing).
The Left does need to have opponents, but the point of an opponent isn't for him to be humiliated over and over again. It's to offer a target to express power over, and particularly symbolic/verbal power, because that's where the Left dominates now. The Opponent's role is to say something and then be expelled, as a symbolic ritual. The Right cares about the psychological humiliation and hierarchy you can inflict on an individual, while the Left cares about using someone as an example pour encourager les autres.
But, if you keep on expelling people, eventually those people will be gone. So you have to find a new Opponent to maintain the ritual, and that's how Jesse Singal ends up the witch.
No_one
11hr ago
porn is mostly banned except for the softcore "sub to my OF" type stuff)
Porn isn't banned. It's just hidden behind 'sensitive content' which, with the wrong setting, can be displayed automatically.
SnapDragon
11hr ago
Your travel analogy is awful - it is often very valuable to solve 80% of a problem. A better analogy would be if your travel agent offered you a brand-new cheap teleportation device that had a range of "only" 80% of the way to Hawaii, but you had to purchase a flight for the last 20%. Which would obviously be great! AVs are the exception here, since you need to actually solve 99% of the driving problem for them to be useful (telepresent drivers "stepping in" can help a bit, but you don't want to depend on them).
Uh, and I don't think $64 per licensed driver in America is going to buy them two Ford-F150s. You might want to check Car and Driver's math. (What is with people being unable to properly divide by the population of the US? Does their common sense break down when dealing with big numbers?) Amusingly, I've never seen GPT4+ make this magnitude of a mistake.
Anyway, we should (and will) be taking the next decade to put smart models absolutely everywhere, even though they sometimes make mistakes. And that's going to be expensive. The major risk of AI investment is definitely not the lack of demand. As OP mentioned, the risk really is the lack of "moat" - if you only have to wait a year for an open-source model to catch up with GPT, why pay OpenAI's premium prices?
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
11hr ago
Hard disagree. All that does is launder into the premises that there is a good version of being a lunatic fringe that is frothing at the mouth for violence. It once again centers this notion that even the crazy lefties have their heart in the right place.
I reject this fully.
There's an even stronger selection effect. If your club gets banned by the city you have no choice but to follow them out of city limits to stay in the club. This club wasn't ever banned, so why go through the trouble unless you care a lot?*
Does X qualify as "explicitly right-wing" or do we see an exception to Robert's Law of Conquest as applied to the internet?
Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing.
I would consider myself a moderate X user. I check it 3-5 times a week. On the site, I follow some users who progressives consider unsavory characters, but the majority are normal interesting people, moderately annoying pundits, and domain experts. The max vitriol content is on the site, it's not hidden, but it's also not pushed in my face. Where I run into the uber based right content is usually because I signaled interested in a topic, like a big culture war murder story, and the algorithm asks just how based I really am for a time. (Not very.)
Conditions might now only require an organization be perceived as explicitly not left-wing to avoid conquest. "Any organization that cannot be made explicitly left-wing will see leftists leave for greener pastures."
ThisIsSin
PC is for progressive-conservative
11hr ago
I think that blueskies problem is with too many witch hunters and not enough witches.
Western societies in general suffer from a systems-level equivalent of an auto-immune disorder where the demand for witch activity far outstrips its supply.
Also, it is noteworthy that this case is literally "Burgers?". I guess life does imitate art.
erwgv3g34
11hr ago
The penny is due to be eliminated in 2026. I think that does not go far enough. Here is my proposal for reforming the cash system:
-
Eliminate all coins other than the quarter. Inflation has made pennies, nickels, and dimes worthless. Half dollars are extinct, and every attempt the government makes to introduce a dollar coin ends in failure because there is already a perfectly good dollar bill. But the quarter is still useful to pay for laundry.
-
Pass a law that businesses must advertise after-tax prices, not before-tax prices. The United States is stuck in a shitty equilibrium where businesses advertise a fake price but nobody can break out of it because if you advertise the actual price your prices look higher and you lose costumers. Other countries have arrived at the correct equilibrium of advertising true, after-tax prices. Since coordinating the move from shitty equilibria to good equilibria is what the government is for, let's do that. As a corollary, prices must be advertised as multiples of $0.25. If for some reason a price ends up indivisible by quarters (e.g. a 30% off sale on a product worth $1.25), then round.
-
Introduce a $200 bill. Inflation means that the $100 bill is no longer as useful as it once was. It is time to acknowledge this by creating a higher denomination note. Whose face should go on the bill? My preference would be Ronald Reagan, but if we absolutely must have a woman on the bill, let's go with Ayn Rand.
Thoughts?
Lizzardspawn
11hr ago
Driving away your opponent is not fun. The fun is keeping they/them alive and kicking while forcing them to watch you butcher their sacred cows
lurker
11hr ago
I feel like there is a useful distinction to be made between witches and witch hunters. The most commonly ascribed issue with witches is one of moral or spiritual corruption. Witches don't want to destroy witch hunters, they want to convert them into witches. Witch hunters on the other hand are all about accusing people of being witches and burning them at the stake to prevent their corruption from spreading.
I think that blueskies problem is with too many witch hunters and not enough witches.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12hr ago
Agreed :(
sohois
12hr ago
Your first two paragraphs just appear to be quibbling over definitions. I don't really care what measurement scheme you use, abandon percentages if you find them useless. The point of the comparison is to show that the advancement in AI capabilities is on a completely different planet to AVs.
As for the comparison of investment, it seems trivial to point out that the difference in magnitude is due to the potential markets. If a company invented Level 5 self driving cars tomorrow, what would they get? You could take away human taxi drivers and truck drivers and some other logistics, and start taking a big chunk of the consumer car market. For a time at least, since other companies would be able to copy you pretty quickly. I'm assuming a lot of companies in that market plan to licence the technology for their revenues, rather than trying to take direct control. Certainly a big market, which likely explains a lot of the valuation for your Teslas and Ubers, but not unlimited.
The impact of a company announcing AGI tomorrow would be unimaginable, even if we assume a slow takeoff with limited recursive self-improvement.
More on (1), I'm coming to terms with the idea that maybe I should just buy a black bicycle helmet sleeve and sew the LED strips into that.
This way I don't have to worry about adhesion bullshit and also can do any arbitrary design rather than trying to fit the exact pattern of the helmet.
@gattsuru did suggest this but I was not ready to hear it at the time.
roystgnr
12hr ago
$16 billion on research through 2019. Their conclusion was that the whole enterprise was a money pit and that they'd never be able to climb out of. Car and Driver put this in perspective by noting that they could have given every licensed driver in America two brand new Ford-F150s and still have cash to spare.
Got a source for that?
$16B divided by 230M is under $70. That is more than enough for two sets of F150 wiper blades for every licensed driver in America, but only if we don't splurge on Rain-X.
Celestial-body-NOS
We are all human beans. Together, we will rice.
12hr ago
GNU Terry Pratchett.
Celestial-body-NOS
We are all human beans. Together, we will rice.
12hr ago
Yeah, they're very powerful. Once you hear their message- powerful enough to be condensed into a single word- all of a sudden your clothes (and banners, and even your cars on occasion) change color and you're instantly batting for the other team.
Roses are red
Violets are blue
...wololo...
Roses are blue
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
12hr ago
Jesse Singal is a journalist and podcaster who often covers "youth gender medicine", reading the studies and interviewing many clinicians. While Jesse is critical of the evidence base for "affirmative care," he is hardly some TERF or even a true & honest transphobe. He still defends medical transition for minors, even puberty blockers, believes being trans is a valid identity, and uses preferred pronouns for anyone he writes about or discusses on his podcast. (His podcast was recently featured for covering a story about the Tranch, referencing the Farms as a source. He and his podcasting partner Katie Herzog also criticized the mainstream coverage of Keffals v KF.) His most genocidal posts were his Atlantic cover story about youth gender transition, an article about Kenneth Zucker, and an article about transracialism discourse.
Yet for the crime of covering this topic as a journalist instead of a stenographer for trans activists, he is one of the most frequent targets of their rage and derangement, including death threats, slander, sexual fantasies, and false accusations. They have repeatedly thrown their own reputations and careers under the bus in the process. (Jesse himself is unable to resist a Twitter fight, and very willing to request corrections and retractions if he finds their work to be full of errors or harmful to his reputation.)
Ioper
12hr ago
so it'll work well for the conscientious owner and poorly for the lazy owner.
That may well be true, but its also true that the conscientious owner doesn't need an invisi-fence, so what effect does their availablity really have?
birb_cromble
12hr ago
For those of us who don't even recognize the name except as "Some Guy that the Motte talks about now and then", would you be willing to give some background on those accusations?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
12hr ago
Yes, the fact that one of the three branches of government has decided not to do their job does seem to be the root of the problem here.
pigeonburger
12hr ago
I'd worry they can't meme well since "Gotta catch 'em all" doesn't really work for them.
Well, sure, the phrase "their optics suck" is ambiguous. I think it can cover either of "ICE are unsuccessful at shaking off an unwanted bad reputation" or "ICE are successfully cultivating a bad reputation", and I agree the latter seems more likely, though some people in this thread vehemently deny it even as other ICE-supporters embrace it. But it still seems fair to call that "their optics suck", it would just mean that their optics suck on purpose for some inane galaxy-brained reason.
More options
Context Copy link